Accelerating Pseudo-Marginal MCMC using Gaussian Processes

Pseudo-marginal methods such as the grouped independence Metropolis-Hastings (GIMH) and Markov chain within Metropolis (MCWM) algorithms have been introduced in the literature as an approach to perform Bayesian inference in latent variable models. These methods replace intractable likelihood calculations with unbiased estimates within Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. The GIMH method has the posterior of interest as its limiting distribution, but suffers from poor mixing if it is too computationally intensive to obtain high-precision likelihood estimates. The MCWM algorithm has better mixing properties, but less theoretical support. In this paper we propose to use Gaussian processes (GP) to accelerate the GIMH method, whilst using a short pilot run of MCWM to train the GP. Our new method, GP-GIMH, is illustrated on simulated data from a stochastic volatility and a gene network model.

Determinants of vascular cognitive impairment : White matter lesions, brain atrophy and their neuropsychological correlates

The concept of vascular cognitive impairment (VCI) covers a wide spectrum of cognitive dysfunctions related to cerebrovascular disease. Among the pathophysiological determinants of VCI are cerebral stroke, white matter lesions and brain atrophy, which are known to be important risk factors for dementia. However, the specific mechanisms behind the brain abnormalities and cognitive decline are still poorly understood. The present study investigated the neuropsychological correlates of particular magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings, namely, medial temporal lobe atrophy (MTA), white matter hyperintensities (WMH), general cortical atrophy and corpus callosum (CC) atrophy in subjects with cerebrovascular disease. Furthermore, the cognitive profile of subcortical ischaemic vascular disease (SIVD) was examined. This study was conducted as part of two large multidisciplinary study projects, the Helsinki Stroke Aging Memory (SAM) Study and the multinational Leukoaraiosis and Disability (LADIS) Study. The SAM cohort consisted of 486 patients, between 55 and 85 years old, with ischaemic stroke from the Helsinki University Hospital, Helsinki, Finland. The LADIS Study included a mixed sample of subjects (n=639) with age-related WMH, between 65 and 84 years old, gathered from 11 centres around Europe. Both studies included comprehensive clinical and neuropsychological assessments and detailed brain MRI. The relationships between the MRI findings and the neuropsychological test performance were analysed by controlling for relevant confounding factors such as age, education and other coexisting brain lesions. The results revealed that in elderly patients with ischaemic stroke, moderate to severe MTA was specifically related to impairment of memory and visuospatial functions, but mild MTA had no clinical relevance. Instead, WMH were primarily associated with executive deficits and mental slowing. These deficits mediated the relationship between WMH and other, secondary cognitive deficits. Cognitive decline was best predicted by the overall degree of WMH, whereas the independent contribution of regional WMH measures was low. Executive deficits were the most prominent cognitive characteristic in SIVD. Compared to other stroke patients, the patients with SIVD also presented more severe memory deficits, which were related to MTA. The cognitive decline in SIVD occurred independently of depressive symptoms and, relative to healthy control subjects, it was substantial in severity. In stroke patients, general cortical atrophy also turned out to be a strong predictor of cognitive decline in a wide range of cognitive domains. Moreover, in elderly subjects with WMH, overall CC atrophy was related to reduction in mental speed, while anterior CC atrophy was independently associated with frontal lobe-mediated executive functions and attention. The present study provides cross-sectional evidence for the involvement of WMH, MTA, general cortical atrophy and CC atrophy in VCI. The results suggest that there are multifaceted pathophysiological mechanisms behind VCI in the elderly, including both vascular ischaemic lesions and neurodegenerative changes. The different pathological changes are highly interrelated processes and together they may produce cumulative effects on cognitive decline.

Marine resources, biophysical processes, and environmental management of a tropical shelf seaway: Torres Strait, Australia-Introduction to the special issue

This special issue of Continental Shelf Research contains 20 papers giving research results produced as part of Australia's Torres Strait Co-operative Research Centre (CRC) Program, which was funded over a three-year period during 2003-2006. Marine biophysical, fisheries, socioeconomic-cultural and extension research in the Torres Strait region of northeastern Australia was carried out to meet three aims: 1) support the sustainable development of marine resources and minimize impacts of resource use in Torres Strait; 2) enhance the conservation of the marine environment and the social, cultural and economic well being of all stakeholders, particularly the Torres Strait peoples; and 3) contribute to effective policy formulation and management decision making. Subjects covered, including commercial and traditional fisheries management, impacts of anthropogenic sediment inputs on seagrass meadows and communication of science results to local communities, have broad applications to other similar environments.

Minimizing overprocessing waste in business processes via predictive activity ordering

Overprocessing waste occurs in a business process when effort is spent in a way that does not add value to the customer nor to the business. Previous studies have identied a recurrent overprocessing pattern in business processes with so-called "knockout checks", meaning activities that classify a case into "accepted" or "rejected", such that if the case is accepted it proceeds forward, while if rejected, it is cancelled and all work performed in the case is considered unnecessary. Thus, when a knockout check rejects a case, the effort spent in other (previous) checks becomes overprocessing waste. Traditional process redesign methods propose to order knockout checks according to their mean effort and rejection rate. This paper presents a more fine-grained approach where knockout checks are ordered at runtime based on predictive machine learning models. Experiments on two real-life processes show that this predictive approach outperforms traditional methods while incurring minimal runtime overhead.

Neurochemical regulation of auditory information processing studied with EEG/MEG: application to schizophrenia

Cognitive impairments of attention, memory and executive functions are a fundamental feature of the pathophysiology of schizophrenia. The neurophysiological and neurochemical changes in the auditory cortex are shown to underlie cognitive impairmentsin schizophrenia patients. Functional state of the neural substrate of auditory information processing could be objectively and non-invasively probed with auditory event-related potentials (ERPs) and event- related fields (ERFs). In the current work, we explored the neurochemical effect on the neural origins of auditory information processing in relation to schizophrenia. By means of ERPs/ERFs we aimed to determine how neural substrates of auditory information processing are modulated by antipsychotic medication in schizophrenia spectrum patients (Studies I, II) and by neuropharmacological challenges in healthy human subjects (Studies III, IV). First, with auditory ERPs we investigated the effects of olanzapine (Study I) and risperidone (Study II) in a group of patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders. After 2 and 4 weeks of treatment, olanzapine has no significant effects on mismatch negativity(MMN) and P300, which, as it has been suggested, respectively reflect preattentive and attention-dependent information processing. After 2 weeks of treatment, risperidone has no significant effect on P300, however risperidone reduces P200 amplitude. This latter effect of risperidone on neural resources responsible for P200 generation could be partly explained through the action of dopamine. Subsequently, we used simultaneous EEG/MEG to investigate the effects of memantine (Study III) and methylphenidate (Study IV) in healthy subjects. We found that memantine modulates MMN response without changing other ERP components. This could be interpreted as being due to the possible influence of memantine through the NMDA receptors on auditory change- detection mechanism, with processing of auditory stimuli remaining otherwise unchanged. Further, we found that methylphenidate does not modulate the MMN response. This finding could indicate no association between catecholaminergic activities and electrophysiological measures of preattentive auditory discrimination processes reflected in the MMN. However, methylphenidate decreases the P200 amplitudes. This could be interpreted as a modulation of auditory information processing reflected in P200 by dopaminergic and noradrenergic systems. Taken together, our set of studies indicates a complex pattern of neurochemical influences produced by the antipsychotic drugs in the neural substrate of auditory information processing in patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders and by the pharmacological challenges in healthy subjects studied with ERPs and ERFs.

Processes leading to the detection of tropical weed infestations during an eradication program.

The authors identify and track processes that have resulted in the detection of six tropical weeds targeted for eradication. The habitats and distributions of these species make detection by field officers and members of the public more likely than targeted searches. The eradication program is increasing the scope of detection processes by conducting and documenting activities to improve weed recognition amongst public, government and industry stakeholders.

Will biological control of Lantana camara ever succeed? Patterns, processes & prospects

Despite biocontrol research spanning over 100 years, the hybrid weed, commonly referred to as Lantana camara, is not under adequate control. Host specificity and varietal preference of released agents, climatic suitability of a region for released agents, number of agents introduced and range or area of infestation appear to play a role in limiting biocontrol success. At least one of 41 species of mainly leaf- or flower-feeding insects has been introduced, or spread, to 41 of the 70 countries or regions where lantana occurs. Over half (26) of these species have established, achieving varying levels of herbivory and presumably some degree of control. Accurate taxonomy of the plant and adaptation of potential agents to the host plant are some of the better predictors of at least establishment success. Retrospective analysis of the hosts of introduced biocontrol agents for L. camara show that a greater proportion of agents that were collected from L. camara or Lantana urticifolia established, than agents that were collected from other species of Lantana. Of the introduced agents that had established and were oligophagous, 18 out of 22 established. The proportion of species establishing, declined with the number of species introduced. However, there was no trend when oceanic islands were treated separately from mainland areas and the result is likely an artefact of how introductions have changed over time. A calculated index of the degree of herbivory due to agents known to have caused some damage per country, was not related to land area infested with lantana for mainlands nor for oceanic islands. However, the degree of herbivory is much higher on islands than mainlands. This difference between island and mainland situations may reflect population dynamics in patchy or metapopulation landscapes. Basic systematic studies of the host remain crucial to successful biocontrol, especially of hybrid weeds like L. camara. Potential biocontrol agents should be monophages collected from the most closely related species to the target weed or be phytophages that attack several species of lantana. Suitable agents should be released in the most ideal ecoclimatic area. Since collection of biocontrol agents has been limited to a fraction of the known number of phytophagous species available, biocontrol may be improved by targeting insects that feed on stems and roots, as well as the agents that feed on leaves and flowers.

Analytical model of reactive transport processes with spatially variable coefficients

Analytical solutions of partial differential equation (PDE) models describing reactive transport phenomena in saturated porous media are often used as screening tools to provide insight into contaminant fate and transport processes. While many practical modelling scenarios involve spatially variable coefficients, such as spatially variable flow velocity, v(x), or spatially variable decay rate, k(x), most analytical models deal with constant coefficients. Here we present a framework for constructing exact solutions of PDE models of reactive transport. Our approach is relevant for advection-dominant problems, and is based on a regular perturbation technique. We present a description of the solution technique for a range of one-dimensional scenarios involving constant and variable coefficients, and we show that the solutions compare well with numerical approximations. Our general approach applies to a range of initial conditions and various forms of v(x) and k(x). Instead of simply documenting specific solutions for particular cases, we present a symbolic worksheet, as supplementary material, which enables the solution to be evaluated for different choices of the initial condition, v(x) and k(x). We also discuss how the technique generalizes to apply to models of coupled multispecies reactive transport as well as higher dimensional problems.

Special Issue on Spatial Moment Techniques for Modelling Biological Processes

Over the last two decades, there has been an increasing awareness of, and interest in, the use of spatial moment techniques to provide insight into a range of biological and ecological processes. Models that incorporate spatial moments can be viewed as extensions of mean-field models. These mean-field models often consist of systems of classical ordinary differential equations and partial differential equations, whose derivation, at some point, hinges on the simplifying assumption that individuals in the underlying stochastic process encounter each other at a rate that is proportional to the average abundance of individuals. This assumption has several implications, the most striking of which is that mean-field models essentially neglect any impact of the spatial structure of individuals in the system. Moment dynamics models extend traditional mean-field descriptions by accounting for the dynamics of pairs, triples and higher n-tuples of individuals. This means that moment dynamics models can, to some extent, account for how the spatial structure affects the dynamics of the system in question.

Complete and interpretable conformance checking of business processes

This article presents a method for checking the conformance between an event log capturing the actual execution of a business process, and a model capturing its expected or normative execution. Given a business process model and an event log, the method returns a set of statements in natural language describing the behavior allowed by the process model but not observed in the log and vice versa. The method relies on a unified representation of process models and event logs based on a well-known model of concurrency, namely event structures. Specifically, the problem of conformance checking is approached by folding the input event log into an event structure, unfolding the process model into another event structure, and comparing the two event structures via an error-correcting synchronized product. Each behavioral difference detected in the synchronized product is then verbalized as a natural language statement. An empirical evaluation shows that the proposed method scales up to real-life datasets while producing more concise and higher-level difference descriptions than state-of-the-art conformance checking methods.

Meeting of the Joint Distribution Committee and the Executive Committee of the American Jewish Relief Committee 1918 in New York

Reproduction of a painting of a meeting of the Joint Distribution Committee (representing the American Jewish Relief Committee, the Central Rellief Committee and the People's Relief Committee) and the Executive Committee of the American Jewish Relief Committee, with chairman Felix Warburg, secretary Albert Lucas, stenographer Mrs. F. Friedman, executive director Boris Bogen, comptroller Harriet Lowenstein, associate treasurer Paul Baerwald and treasurer Arthur Lehman; Office of Mr. Felix M. Warburg, 52 William Street, New York

Impacts of improved grazing land management on sediment yields, Part 1: Hillslope processes.

Summary Poor land condition resulting from unsustainable grazing practices can reduce enterprise profitability and increase water, sediment and associated nutrient runoff from properties and catchments. This paper presents the results of a 6 year field study that used a series of hillslope flume experiments to evaluate the impact of improved grazing land management (GLM) on hillslope runoff and sediment yields. The study was carried out on a commercial grazing property in a catchment draining to the Burdekin River in northern Australia. During this study average ground cover on hillslopes increased from ~35% to ~75%, although average biomass and litter levels are still relatively low for this landscape type (~60 increasing to 1100 kg of dry matter per hectare). Pasture recovery was greatest on the upper and middle parts of hillslopes. Areas that did not respond to the improved grazing management had <10% cover and were on the lower slopes associated with the location of sodic soil and the initiation of gullies. Comparison of ground cover changes and soil conditions with adjacent properties suggest that grazing management, and not just improved rainfall conditions, were responsible for the improvements in ground cover in this study. The ground cover improvements resulted in progressively lower runoff coefficients for the first event in each wet season, however, runoff coefficients were not reduced at the annual time scale. The hillslope annual sediment yields declined by ~70% on two out of three hillslopes, although where bare patches (with <10% cover) were connected to gullies and streams, annual sediment yields increased in response to higher rainfall in latter years of the study. It appears that bare patches are the primary source areas for both runoff and erosion on these hillslopes. Achieving further reductions in runoff and erosion in these landscapes may require management practices that improve ground cover and biomass in bare areas, particularly when they are located adjacent to concentrated drainage lines.

Simple software processes and tests improve the reliability and usefulness of a model.

Models are abstractions of reality that have predetermined limits (often not consciously thought through) on what problem domains the models can be used to explore. These limits are determined by the range of observed data used to construct and validate the model. However, it is important to remember that operating the model beyond these limits, one of the reasons for building the model in the first place, potentially brings unwanted behaviour and thus reduces the usefulness of the model. Our experience with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), a farming systems model, has led us to adapt techniques from the disciplines of modelling and software development to create a model development process. This process is simple, easy to follow, and brings a much higher level of stability to the development effort, which then delivers a much more useful model. A major part of the process relies on having a range of detailed model tests (unit, simulation, sensibility, validation) that exercise a model at various levels (sub-model, model and simulation). To underline the usefulness of testing, we examine several case studies where simulated output can be compared with simple relationships. For example, output is compared with crop water use efficiency relationships gleaned from the literature to check that the model reproduces the expected function. Similarly, another case study attempts to reproduce generalised hydrological relationships found in the literature. This paper then describes a simple model development process (using version control, automated testing and differencing tools), that will enhance the reliability and usefulness of a model.

Structural origin of set-reset processes in Ge15Te83Si2 glass investigated using in situ Raman scattering and transmission electron microscopy

We report here that the structural origin of an easily reversible Ge15Te83Si2 glass can be a promising candidate for phase change random access memories. In situ Raman scattering studies on Ge15Te83Si2 sample, undertaken during the amorphous set and reset processes, indicate that the degree of disorder in the glass is reduced from off to set state. It is also found that the local structure of the sample under reset condition is similar to that in the amorphous off state. Electron microscopic studies on switched samples indicate the formation of nanometric sized particles of c-SiTe2 structure. ©2009 American Institute of Physics