Financial Futures Markets and Their Impact on the Real Economy in Middle and Low Income Countries

This project analyses the influence of the futures market on middle and low income countries. In it, I attempt to show that investments made by large investment funds in this market, as well as by certain pension plans, bring major consequences whose effects are more evident in less developed countries. The cornerstones of the work are as follows; to attempt to see the existing relationship between the commodity futures market and its underlying assets; analysing products such as wheat, rice and corn in-depth, because these are the most basic foodstuffs at a global level; to determine how an increase in trading in these markets can affect the lives of people in the poorest countries; to analyse investor concern regarding the consequences that their investments may have. Throughout the project we will see how large speculators use production forecasting models to determine the shortage of a commodity in order to take a position in the futures market to profit from it. In addition we will see how an increase in trading in this market causes an increase in the price of the underlying asset in the spot market. As for investor concern, I can say it is negligible, but the idea of running pension plans or investment funds that follow some social criteria has been welcomed by those interviewed, which makes me think that different legislation is possible. This legislation will only come into existence if it is demanded by the people. A fact that now becomes complicated because without a minimum financial basis, they cannot even know how the large investment funds trade with hunger in the world. The day when most people understand how large speculators profit from famine will be the day to put pressure on governments to begin to put limits on speculation. This makes financial awareness necessary in order to achieve a curb in excessive speculation.

Company financial performance: Does board size matter? Case of the EUROSTOXX50 index

[EN] This study analyzes the relationship between board size and economic-financial performance in a sample of European firms that constitute the EUROSTOXX50 Index. Based on previous literature, resource dependency and agency theories, and considering regulation developed by the OECD and European Union on the normative of corporate governance for each country in the sample, the authors propose the hypotheses of both positive linear and quadratic relationships between the researched parameters. Using ROA as a benchmark of financial performance and the number of members of the board as measurement of the board size, two OLS estimations are performed. To confirm the robustness of the results the empirical study is tested with two other similar financial ratios, ROE and Tobin s Q. Due to the absence of significant results, an additional factor, firm size, is employed in order to check if it affects firm performance. Delving further into the nature of this relationship, it is revealed that there exists a strong and negative relation between firm size and financial performance. Consequently, it can be asseverated that the generic recommendation one size fits all cannot be applied in this case; which conforms to the Recommendations of the European Union that dissuade using generic models for all countries.

Traditional budgeting during financial crisis

[EN] This study examines the evolution of budgeting practices in the extremely difficult Spanish economic environment. In order to analyse if companies are still maintaining their budgeting process and if, right now, they are facing more difficulties in forecasting accurate indicators, two similar web surveys were addressed over two periods of time, firstly in 2008 at the beginning of the financial crisis, and secondly in 2013 after five years of a downward trend. In addition, in-depth interviews were conducted to investigate how companies brought more flexibility to their budgeting process in order to cope with environmental uncertainty. The survey indicates that 97% of respondents are still using a traditional budgeting process being this result similar to the one found in 2008. However, 2013 showed that the reliance on forecasted information is being increasingly questioned. Furthermore the study revealed that the respondents are bringing more flexibility to their processes, being able to modify the objectives once the budget is approved and to obtain new resources outside the budgeting process. This paper contributes to revealing information about difficulties in setting reliable objectives in a turbulent environment and provides data about the evolution of budgeting practices over five years during an austere economic crisis.

Age- or length-based methods of growth estimation. What drives the choice?

Based upon a global comparison of over 400 fisheries, the Principal Components Analysis (PCA) methodology was used to identify factors affecting the choice of growth estimation methods. Of the six factors examined, the growth rate (K) and asymptotic length (L8) explained most of the variations. Financial resources, i.e., Gross National Product (GNP), and latitude were also important factors.

Proceedings of an international workshop on the value of computer-based engineering tools, held in Cambridge in April 1997

There is increasing adoption of computer-based tools to support the product development process. Tolls include computer-aided design, computer-aided manufacture, systems engineering and product data management systems. The fact that companies choose to invest in tools might be regarded as evidence that tools, in aggregate, are perceived to possess business value through their application to engineering activities. Yet the ways in which value accrues from tool technology are poorly understood.

This report records the proceedings of an international workshop during which some novel approaches to improving our understanding of this problem of tool valuation were presented and debated. The value of methods and processes were also discussed. The workshop brought together British, Dutch, German and Italian researchers. The presenters included speakers from industry and academia (the University of Cambridge, the University of Magdeburg and the Politechnico de Torino)

The work presented showed great variety. Research methods include case studies, questionnaires, statistical analysis, semi-structured interviews, deduction, inductive reasoning, the recording of anecdotes and analogies. The presentations drew on financial investment theory, the industrial experience of workshop participants, discussions with students developing tools, modern economic theories and speculation on the effects of company capabilities.

Risk based lifetime costs assessment of a ground source heat pump (GSHP) system design: Methodology and case study

Space heating accounts for a large portion of the world's carbon dioxide emissions. Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHPs) are a technology which can reduce carbon emissions from heating and cooling. GSHP system performance is however highly sensitive to deviation from design values of the actual annual energy extraction/rejection rates from/to the ground. In order to prevent failure and/or performance deterioration of GSHP systems it is possible to incorporate a safety factor in the design of the GSHP by over-sizing the ground heat exchanger (GHE). A methodology to evaluate the financial risk involved in over-sizing the GHE is proposed is this paper. A probability based approach is used to evaluate the economic feasibility of a hypothetical full-size GSHP system as compared to four alternative Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system configurations. The model of the GSHP system is developed in the TRNSYS energy simulation platform and calibrated with data from an actual hybrid GSHP system installed in the Department of Earth Science, University of Oxford, UK. Results of the analysis show that potential savings from a full-size GSHP system largely depend on projected HVAC system efficiencies and gas and electricity prices. Results of the risk analysis also suggest that a full-size GSHP with auxiliary back up is potentially the most economical system configuration. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

A non-linear perturbation model considering catchment wetness and its application in river flow forecasting

A non-linear perturbation model for river flow forecasting is developed, based on consideration of catchment wetness using an antecedent precipitation index (API). Catchment seasonality, of the form accounted for in the linear perturbation model (the LPM), and non-linear behaviour both in the runoff generation mechanism and in the flow routing processes are represented by a constrained nan-linear model, the NLPM-API. A total of ten catchments, across a range of climatic conditions and catchment area magnitudes, located in China and in other countries, were selected for testing daily rainfall-runoff forecasting with this model. It was found that the NLPM-API model was significantly more efficient than the original linear perturbation model (the LPM). However, restric tion of explicit nan-linearity to the runoff generation process, in the simpler LPM-API form of the model, did not produce a significantly lower value of the efficiency in flood forecasting, in terms of the model efficiency index R-2. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.

Enhanced electroluminescence intensity of InGaN/GaN multi-quantum-wells based on Mg-doped GaN annealed in O-2

InGaN/GaN multi-quantum-well blue (461 +/- 4 nm) light emitting diodes with higher electroluminescence intensity are obtained by postgrowth thermal annealing at 720 C in O-2-ambient. Based on our first-principle total-energy calculations, we conclude that besides dissociating the Mg-H complex by forming H2O, annealing in O-2 has another positive effect on the activation of acceptor Mg in GaN. Mg can be further activated by the formation of an impurity band above the valence band maximum of host GaN from the passivated Mg-Ga-O-N complex. Our calculated ionization energy for acceptor Mg in the passivated system is about 30 meV shallower than that in pure GaN, in good agreement with previous experimental measurement. Our model can explain that the enhanced electroluminescence intensity of InGaN/GaN MQWs based on Mg-doped p-type GaN is due to a decrease in the ionization energy of Mg acceptor with the presence of oxygen. (C) 2008 American Institute of Physics.

Application of forecasting structural cracks technique of 3D move in Chengdao buried hill

3DMove software, based on the three-dimension structural model of geologic interpretation, can forecast reservoir cracks from the point of view of formation of the structural geology, and analyze the characteristics of the cracks. 3DMove software dominates in forecasting cracks. We forecast the developments and directions of the cracks in Chengbei buried hill with the application of forecasting technique in 3DMove software, and obtain the chart about strain distributing on top in buried hill and the chart about relative density and orientation and the chart about the analysis of crack unsealing. In Chengbei 30 buried hill zone, north-west and north-east and approximately east-west cracks in Cenozoic are very rich and the main directions in every fault block are different. Forecasting results that are also verified by those of drilling approximately accord with the data from well logging, the case of which shows that the technique has the better ability in forecasting cracks, and takes more effects on exploration and exploitation of crack reservoir beds in ancient buried hill reservoirs.

Rationing Antiretroviral Therapy for HIV/AIDS in Africa: Efficiency, Equity, and Reality

Background: Rationing of access to antiretroviral therapy already exists in sub-Saharan Africa and will intensify as national treatment programs develop. The number of people who are medically eligible for therapy will far exceed the human, infrastructural, and financial resources available, making rationing of public treatment services inevitable. Methods: We identified 15 criteria by which antiretroviral therapy could be rationed in African countries and analyzed the resulting rationing systems across 5 domains: clinical effectiveness, implementation feasibility, cost, economic efficiency, and social equity. Findings: Rationing can be explicit or implicit. Access to treatment can be explicitly targeted to priority subpopulations such as mothers of newborns, skilled workers, students, or poor people. Explicit conditions can also be set that cause differential access, such as residence in a designated geographic area, co-payment, access to testing, or a demonstrated commitment to adhere to therapy. Implicit rationing on the basis of first-come, first-served or queuing will arise when no explicit system is enforced; implicit systems almost always allow a high degree of queue-jumping by the elite. There is a direct tradeoff between economic efficiency and social equity. Interpretation: Rationing is inevitable in most countries for some period of time. Without deliberate social policy decisions, implicit rationing systems that are neither efficient nor equitable will prevail. Governments that make deliberate choices, and then explain and defend those choices to their constituencies, are more likely to achieve a socially desirable outcome from the large investments now being made than are those that allow queuing and queue-jumping to dominate.

Power system parameters forecasting using Hilbert-Huang transform and machine learning

A novel hybrid data-driven approach is developed for forecasting power system parameters with the goal of increasing the efficiency of short-term forecasting studies for non-stationary time-series. The proposed approach is based on mode decomposition and a feature analysis of initial retrospective data using the Hilbert-Huang transform and machine learning algorithms. The random forests and gradient boosting trees learning techniques were examined. The decision tree techniques were used to rank the importance of variables employed in the forecasting models. The Mean Decrease Gini index is employed as an impurity function. The resulting hybrid forecasting models employ the radial basis function neural network and support vector regression. A part from introduction and references the paper is organized as follows. The second section presents the background and the review of several approaches for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. In the third section a hybrid machine learningbased algorithm using Hilbert-Huang transform is developed for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. Fourth section describes the decision tree learning algorithms used for the issue of variables importance. Finally in section six the experimental results in the following electric power problems are presented: active power flow forecasting, electricity price forecasting and for the wind speed and direction forecasting.

Essays on Vietnam’s Financial Reforms: Foreign Exchange Statistics and Evidence of Long-Run Equilibrium

In this paper, we examine exchange rates in Vietnam’s transitional economy. Evidence of long-run equilibrium are established in most cases through a single co-integrating vector among endogenous variables that determine the real exchange rates. This supports relative PPP in which ECT of the system can be combined linearly into a stationary process, reducing deviation from PPP in the long run. Restricted coefficient vectors ß’ = (1, 1, -1) for real exchange rates of currencies in question are not rejected. This empirics of relative PPP adds to found evidences by many researchers, including Flre et al. (1999), Lee (1999), Johnson (1990), Culver and Papell (1999), Cuddington and Liang (2001). Instead of testing for different time series on a common base currency, we use different base currencies (USD, GBP, JPY and EUR). By doing so we want to know the whether theory may posit significant differences against one currency? We have found consensus, given inevitable technical differences, even with smallerdata sample for EUR. Speeds of convergence to PPP and adjustment are faster compared to results from other researches for developed economies, using both observed and bootstrapped HL measures. Perhaps, a better explanation is the adjustment from hyperinflation period, after which the theory indicates that adjusting process actually accelerates. We observe that deviation appears to have been large in early stages of the reform, mostly overvaluation. Over time, its correction took place leading significant deviations to gradually disappear.

Corporate Bond Market in the Transition Economy of Vietnam, 1990-2010

Corporate bond appeared early in 1992-1994 in Vietnamese capital markets. However, it is still not popular to both business sector and academic circle. This paper explores different dimensions of Vietnamese corporate bond market using a unique, and perhaps, most complete dataset. State not only intervenes in the bond markets with its powerful budget and policies but also competes directly with enterprises. The dominance of SOEs and large corporations also prevents SMEs from this debt financing vehicle. Whenever a convertible term is available, bondholders are more willing to accept lower fixed income payoff. But they would not likely stick to it. On one hand, prospective bondholders could value the holdings of equity when realized favorably ex ante. On the other hand, the applicable coupon rate for such bond could turn out negative inflationadjusted payoff when tight monetary policy is exercised and the corresponding equity holding turns out valueless, ex post. Given the weak primary market and virtually nonexistent secondary market, the corporate bond market in Vietnam reflects our perception of the relationship-based and rent-seeking behavior in the financial markets. For the corporate bonds to really work, they critically need a higher level of liquidity to become truly tradable financial assets.

Rent-seekers' lost El Dorado: Vietnam's financial turmoil, 2007-2013

In this investigation, we examined 256 cases of financial failure and fraud in Vietnam’s chaotic years from 2007 to 2013. Categorical data analyses suggest that the rent-seeking approach, or resource-based orientation, alone does not help explain the outcome of a business intention while the association between Orientation and Approach is the best-fit predictor. Rampant financial collapse not only increases the cost of funds but also erodes trust in the economy. Entrepreneurship development and creativity capacity building, in light of this, are necessary to improve socio-economic conditions and the environment. In this manuscript, we also introduce intuitive and cognitive factors to predict ex-ante outcome of a financing scheme.