Air pollution at an urban traffic tunnel in Lisbon, Portugal

In this study, the results of chemical concentrations inside and outside of a Lisbon (Portugal) traffic tunnel were compared, during one week. They were obtained by Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis (INAA). The tunnel values largely exceed the Air Ambient legislated values and the Pearson Correlations Coefficients point out to soil re-suspension/dispersed road dust (As, Ce, Eu, Hf, Fe, Mo, Sc, Zn), traffic-markers (Ba, Cr), tire wear (Cr, Zn), break wear (Fe, Zn, Ba, Cu, Sb), exhaust and motor oil (Zn) and sea-spray (Br, Na). On all days these elements inside the tunnel were more enriched than outside; significant statistical differences were found for Co (p=0.005), Br (p=0.008), Zn (p=0.01) and Sb (p=0.005), while enrichment factors of As and Sc are statistically identical. The highest values were found for As, Br, Zn and Sb, for both inside and outside the tunnel.

Valor preditivo do "Clinical Risk Index for Babies" para o risco de mortalidade neonatal

OBJETIVO: Comparar o valor preditivo do CRIB (Clinical Risk Index for Babies) para o risco de mortalidade neonatal ao peso de nascimento (PN) e idade gestacional (IG). MÉTODO: Numa coorte prospectiva foram estudados, durante o ano de 1996, 71 recém-nascidos admitidos na unidade de terapia intensiva, com PN < 1.500 g e/ou IG < 31 semanas. RESULTADOS: A taxa de mortalidade foi de 29,6%; para PN < 1.000 g ou IG < 29 semanas foi de 60%, enquanto que para o escore de CRIB > 10 foi de 100%. CONCLUSÕES: O escore de CRIB > 10 correspondeu a maiores especificidade e valor preditivo positivo em relação aos demais parâmetros. A área determinada pela "receiver operating characteristic" relativa ao CRIB também foi superior. O CRIB mostrou-se um marcador mais acurado na previsão de risco de mortalidade quando comparado ao PN ou IG isoladamente.

Open and closed positions and stock index futures volatility

In this paper we analyze the relationship between volatility in index futures markets and the number of open and closed positions. We observe that, although in general both positions are positively correlated with contemporaneous volatility, in the case of S&P 500, only the number of open positions has influence over the volatility. Additionally, we observe a stronger positive relationship on days characterized by extreme movements of these contracting movements dominating the market. Finally, our findings suggest that day-traders are not associated to an increment of volatility, whereas uninformed traders, both opening and closing their positions, have to do with it.

Volatility regimes for the VIX index

This article presents a Markov chain framework to characterize the behavior of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX index). Two possible regimes are considered: high volatility and low volatility. The specification accounts for deviations from normality and the existence of persistence in the evolution of the VIX index. Since the time evolution of the VIX index seems to indicate that its conditional variance is not constant over time, I consider two different versions of the model. In the first one, the variance of the index is a function of the volatility regime, whereas the second version includes an autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) specification for the conditional variance of the index.

Light pollution and energy efficiency: a case study of the village of Vialonga

Since industrialization and the formation of larger urban centers in the nineteenth century, pollution of the environment was always present in daily life in various ways, namely in the form of light. Light pollution can cause various consequences, both for humans and for their ecosystem, producing effects on environmental, social, economic and scientific level. In Portugal, the lighting is responsible for 3% of total electricity consumption, energy costs are in some cases more than 50% towards the costs incurred by municipalities with energy, checking-in recent years a trend similar to that improvement of illumination levels in the region (about 4 to 5% per year). Proper use of lighting brings many benefits both to the citizen and environment, since greater energy efficiency can contribute to reducing CO2 emissions, energy costs, as well as to decrease the use of resources not-renewable and/or contamination of renewable resources, which can occurs in the process of obtaining electricity. The present study has a main goal to analyze the illuminance levels associated to the public lighting of the village of Vialonga, Vila Franca de Xira (Portugal), to verify if it is efficient. The aim is also to relate the efficiency of street lighting with the existence of light pollution.

Methodology in the epidemiological research of respiratory diseases and environmental pollution

There are complex and diverse methodological problems involved in the clinical and epidemiological study of respiratory diseases and their etiological factors. The association of urban growth, industrialization and environmental deterioration with respiratory diseases makes it necessary to pay more attention to this research area with a multidisciplinary approach. Appropriate study designs and statistical techniques to analyze and improve our understanding of the pathological events and their causes must be implemented to reduce the growing morbidity and mortality through better preventive actions and health programs. The objective of the article is to review the most common methodological problems in this research area and to present the most available statistical tools used.

Genus and Braid Index Associated to Sequences of Renormalizable Lorenz Maps

We describe the Lorenz links generated by renormalizable Lorenz maps with reducible kneading invariant (K(f)(-), = K(f)(+)) = (X, Y) * (S, W) in terms of the links corresponding to each factor. This gives one new kind of operation that permits us to generate new knots and links from the ones corresponding to the factors of the *-product. Using this result we obtain explicit formulas for the genus and the braid index of this renormalizable Lorenz knots and links. Then we obtain explicit formulas for sequences of these invariants, associated to sequences of renormalizable Lorenz maps with kneading invariant (X, Y) * (S,W)*(n), concluding that both grow exponentially. This is specially relevant, since it is known that topological entropy is constant on the archipelagoes of renormalization.

Air pollution effects on myocardial infarction

OBJECTIVE: Myocardial infarction is an acute and severe cardiovascular disease that generally leads to patient admissions to intensive care units and few cases are initially admitted to infirmaries. The objective of the study was to assess whether estimates of air pollution effects on myocardial infarction morbidity are modified by the source of health information. METHODS: The study was carried out in hospitals of the Brazilian Health System in the city of São Paulo, Southern Brazil. A time series study (1998-1999) was performed using two outcomes: infarction admissions to infirmaries and to intensive care units, both for people older than 64 years of age. Generalized linear models controlling for seasonality (long and short-term trends) and weather were used. The eight-day cumulative effects of air pollutants were assessed using third degree polynomial distributed lag models. RESULTS: Almost 70% of daily hospital admissions due to myocardial infarction were to infirmaries. Despite that, the effects of air pollutants on infarction were higher for intensive care units admissions. All pollutants were positively associated with the study outcomes but SO2 presented the strongest statistically significant association. An interquartile range increase on SO2 concentration was associated with increases of 13% (95% CI: 6-19) and 8% (95% CI: 2-13) of intensive care units and infirmary infarction admissions, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: It may be assumed there is a misclassification of myocardial infarction admissions to infirmaries leading to overestimation. Also, despite the absolute number of events, admissions to intensive care units data provides a more adequate estimate of the magnitude of air pollution effects on infarction admissions.

The effects of air pollution on cardiovascular diseases: lag structures

OBJECTIVE: To assess the lag structure between air pollution exposure and elderly cardiovascular diseases hospital admissions, by gender. METHODS: Health data of people aged 64 years or older was stratified by gender in São Paulo city, Southeastern Brazil, from 1996 to 2001. Daily levels of air pollutants (CO, PM10, O3, NO2, and SO2) , minimum temperature, and relative humidity were also analyzed. It were fitted generalized additive Poisson regressions and used constrained distributed lag models adjusted for long time trend, weekdays, weather and holidays to assess the lagged effects of air pollutants on hospital admissions up to 20 days after exposure. RESULTS: Interquartile range increases in PM10 (26.21 mug/m³) and SO2 (10.73 mug/m³) were associated with 3.17% (95% CI: 2.09-4.25) increase in congestive heart failure and 0.89% (95% CI: 0.18-1.61) increase in total cardiovascular diseases at lag 0, respectively. Effects were higher among female group for most of the analyzed outcomes. Effects of air pollutants for different outcomes and gender groups were predominately acute and some "harvesting" were found. CONLUSIONS: The results show that cardiovascular diseases in São Paulo are strongly affected by air pollution.

As imagens dos manuais escolares: representações mentais de professores e alunos relativamente à presença de imagens nos manuais escolares e à sua eficácia pedagógica

Sendo o manual escolar o recurso pedagógico mais utilizado por alunos e professores foi realizada uma investigação tendo por objectivo avaliar qualitativamente a forma comunicacional de um conjunto de manuais escolares do 2º ciclo do ensino básico1. A importância atribuída atualmente à imagem é patente nos manuais escolares, sob pretexto de se tornarem mais apelativos e mais eficazes. Tal como em outras áreas em que a quantidade de imagens acaba por se transformar em poluição visual porque o ser humano não tem capacidade para reagir, simultaneamente, a um demasiado número de estímulos, nas estratégias comunicacionais dos manuais escolares este problema deve ser acautelado porque delas depende a sua qualidade pedagógica. As investigações não comprovam que exista uma relação direta entre a presença de ilustrações num texto e o aumento da sua compreensão. Pelo contrário, há estudos que sugerem que muitas ilustrações falham como potenciadoras da aprendizagem. Neste sentido, da investigação referida, consta uma análise ao rácio imagem/texto e uma auscultação a dois grupos de amostra - professores e alunos – sobre alguns aspectos gerais relativos à presença e eficácia pedagógica das ilustrações dos manuais escolares. Destacamos que, no caso dos alunos, apesar do seu nível de literacia ter constituído um obstáculo ao tratamento das questões, optámos por apresentar as suas respostas.

Avaliação energética de uma escola

Mestrado em Engenharia Química

The adjusted effect of maternal body mass index, energy and macronutrient intakes during pregnancy, and gestational weight gain on body composition of full-term neonates

Objective - To evaluate the effect of prepregnancy body mass index (BMI), energy and macronutrient intakes during pregnancy, and gestational weight gain (GWG) on the body composition of full-term appropriate-for-gestational age neonates. Study Design - This is a cross-sectional study of a systematically recruited convenience sample of mother-infant pairs. Food intake during pregnancy was assessed by food frequency questionnaire and its nutritional value by the Food Processor Plus (ESHA Research Inc, Salem, OR). Neonatal body composition was assessed both by anthropometry and air displacement plethysmography. Explanatory models for neonatal body composition were tested by multiple linear regression analysis. Results - A total of 100 mother-infant pairs were included. Prepregnancy overweight was positively associated with offspring weight, weight/length, BMI, and fat-free mass in the whole sample; in males, it was also positively associated with midarm circumference, ponderal index, and fat mass. Higher energy intake from carbohydrate was positively associated with midarm circumference and weight/length in the whole sample. Higher GWG was positively associated with weight, length, and midarm circumference in females. Conclusion - Positive adjusted associations were found between both prepregnancy BMI and energy intake from carbohydrate and offspring body size in the whole sample. Positive adjusted associations were also found between prepregnancy overweight and adiposity in males, and between GWG and body size in females.

Multi index model - uma abordagem para aplicação ao mercado accionista em Portugal

O mercado accionista, de uma forma global, tem-se revelado nos últimos tempos uma das principais fontes de incentivo ao mercado de valores mobiliários. O seu impacto junto do público em geral é enorme e a sua importância para as empresas é vital. Interessa, então, perceber como é que a teoria financeira tem obordado a avaliação e a compreensão do processo de formação de uma cotação. Desde os anos 50 até aos dias de hoje, interessa perceber como é que os diferentes autores têm tratado esta abordagem e quais os resultados deste confronto. Interessa sobretudo perceber o abordogem de Stephen Ross e a teoria do arbitragem. Na sequência desta obordagem e com o aparecimento do Multi Index Model, passou a ser possível extimar com maior precisão a evolução da cotação, na medida em que esta estaria dependente de um vasto conjunto de variavéis, que abragem uma vasta área de influência. O contributo de Ross é por isso decisivo. No final interessa reter a melhor técnica e teoria, que defende os interesses do investidor. Face o isto resta, então, saber qual a melhor técnica estatística para proceder a estes estudos empíricos.

Comorbidity adjustment index for the international classification of diseases, 10

OBJECTIVE: To develop a Charlson-like comorbidity index based on clinical conditions and weights of the original Charlson comorbidity index. METHODS: Clinical conditions and weights were adapted from the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision and applied to a single hospital admission diagnosis. The study included 3,733 patients over 18 years of age who were admitted to a public general hospital in the city of Rio de Janeiro, southeast Brazil, between Jan 2001 and Jan 2003. The index distribution was analyzed by gender, type of admission, blood transfusion, intensive care unit admission, age and length of hospital stay. Two logistic regression models were developed to predict in-hospital mortality including: a) the aforementioned variables and the risk-adjustment index (full model); and b) the risk-adjustment index and patient's age (reduced model). RESULTS: Of all patients analyzed, 22.3% had risk scores >1, and their mortality rate was 4.5% (66.0% of them had scores >1). Except for gender and type of admission, all variables were retained in the logistic regression. The models including the developed risk index had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.86 (full model), and 0.76 (reduced model). Each unit increase in the risk score was associated with nearly 50% increase in the odds of in-hospital death. CONCLUSIONS: The risk index developed was able to effectively discriminate the odds of in-hospital death which can be useful when limited information is available from hospital databases.

Produção de hidrogénio por fotoeletrólise da água – aproveitamento do subproduto oxigénio

A noção de Economia relativa ao Hidrogénio no vocabulário dos líderes políticos e empresariais tem vindo a mudar sobretudo pela preocupação da poluição global, segurança energética e mudanças climáticas, para além do crescente domínio técnico dos cientistas e engenheiros. O interesse neste composto, que é o elemento mais simples e abundante no universo, está a crescer, devido aos avanços tecnológicos das células de combustível – as potenciais sucessoras das baterias dos aparelhos portáteis eletrónicos, centrais elétricas e motores de combustão interna. Existem métodos já bem desenvolvidos para produzir o hidrogénio. Contudo, destacase a eletrólise da água, não só por ser um método simples mas porque pode utilizar recursos energéticos renováveis, tais como, o vento ou os painéis fotovoltaicos, e aumentar a sua eficiência. Os desafios para melhorar a utilização deste método consistem em reduzir o consumo, a manutenção e os custos energéticos e aumentar a confiança, a durabilidade e a segurança. Mais ainda, consistem em rentabilizar o subproduto oxigénio pois é um gás industrial e medicinal muito importante. Neste trabalho, estudou-se a viabilidade económica da instalação de uma unidade de produção de hidrogénio e oxigénio puros por eletrólise da água, utilizando como fonte energética a energia solar, na empresa Gasoxmed – Gases Medicinais S.A., pretendendo num futuro próximo, comercializar o hidrogénio como fonte de energia, e por outro lado, aproveitar o subproduto oxigénio para utilização industrial. Projetou-se assim uma unidade utilizando um eletrolisador da marca Proton, modelo C30, com capacidade de produção gasosa de 3 kg/h (30 m3/h) de hidrogénio e 20 kg/h (15 m3/h) de oxigénio. Os gases produzidos são comprimidos num compressor da marca RIX a 200 bares para posterior armazenamento em cilindros pressurizados. Dimensionou-se ainda um sistema de miniprodução fotovoltaico com potência 250 kW para alimentar eletricamente a instalação. A realização do projeto na nova área de produção necessitará de 1.713.963€, os quais serão adquiridos por empréstimo bancário. Definiram-se todos os custos fixos associados ao projeto que perfazem um total de 62.554€/mês para os primeiros 5 anos (duração do crédito bancário) findo o qual diminuirão para 21.204€/mês. Da comercialização do hidrogénio, do oxigénio industrial e da eletricidade produzida no sistema de miniprodução de 250 kW, prevê-se um lucro mensal de 117.925€, perfazendo assim um total líquido mensal positivo de 55.371€ durante os primeiros 5 anos e a partir daí de 96.721€/mês, resultando uma amortização do investimento inicial no final do 3º ano.