Reconstructing Past Climate by Using Proxy Data and a Linear Climate Model

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Analysis of organisational climate to improve the adequacy of primary health care in the State of Kuwait

This study covers two areas of contribution to the knowledge, firstly it tried to investigate rigourously the relationships of a number of factors believed that they may affect the climate perception, classified into three types to arrive to prove a hypothesis of the important role that qualification and personal factors play in shaping the climate perception, this is in contrast with situational factors. Secondly, the study tries to recluster the items of a wide-range applied scale for the measurement of climate named HAY in order to overcome the cross-cultural differences between the Kuwaiti and the American society, and to achieve a modified dimensions of climate for a civil service organisation in Kuwait. Furthermore, the study attempts to carry out a diagnostic test for the climate of the Ministry of Public Health in Kuwait, aiming to diagnose the perceived characteristics of the MoPH organisation, and suggests a number of areas to be given attention if an improvement is to be introduced. The study used extensively the statistical and the computer facilities to make the analysis more representing the field data, on the other hand this study is characterised by the very highly responsive rate of the main survey which would affect the findings reliability. Three main field studies are included, the first one was to conduct the main questionnaire where the second was to measure the "should be" climate by the experts of MoPH using the DELPHI technique, and the third was to conduct an extensive meeting with the very top management team in MoPH. Results of the first stage were subject to CLUSTER analysis for the reconstruction of the HAY tool, whereas comparative analysis was carried on between the results of the second and third stages on one side, the first from the other.

Diatom-based paleolimnological reconstruction of Quaternary environments in a Florida sinkhole lake

Despite lake sensitivity to climate change, few Florida paleolimnological studies have focused on changes in hydrology. Evidence from Florida vegetation histories raise questions about long-term hydrologic history of Florida lakes, and a 25-year limnological dataset revealed recent climate-driven effects on Lake Annie. The objectives of this research are (1) to use modern diatom assemblages to develop methods for reconstruction of climatic and anthropogenic change (2) to reconstruct both long-term and recent histories of Lake Annie using diatom microfossils. Paleoenvironmental reconstruction models were developed from diatom assemblages of various habitat types from modern lakes. Plankton and sediment assemblages were similar, but epiphytes were distinct, suggesting differences in sediment delivery from different parts of the lakes. Relationships between a variety of physical and chemical data and the diatoms from each habitat type were explored. Total phosphorus (TP), pH, and color were found to be the most relevant variables for reconstruction, with sediment and epiphyte assemblages having the strongest relationships to those variables, six calibration models were constructed from the combination of these habitat types and environmental variables. Reconstructions utilizing the weighted averaging models in this study may be used to directly reveal TP, color, and pH changes from a sediment record, which might be suggestive of hydrologic change as well. These variables were reconstructed from the diatom record from both a long-term (11,000 year) and short-term (100 year) record and showed an interaction between climate-driven and local land-use impacts on Lake Annie. The long-term record begins with Lake Annie as a wetland, then the lake filled to a high stand around 4000 years ago. A period of relative stability after that point was interrupted near the turn of the last century by subtle changes in diatom communities that indicate acidification. Abrupt changes in the diatom communities around 1970 AD suggest recovery from acidification, but concurrent hydrologic change intensified anthropogenic effects on the lake. Diatom evidence for alkalization and phosphorus loading correspond to changes seen in the limnological record.

Quantitative diatom-based reconstruction of paleoenvironmental conditions in Florida Bay and Biscayne Bay, U.S.A.

The spatial and temporal distribution of modern diatom assemblages in surface sediments, on the most dominant macrophytes, and in the water column at 96 locations in Florida Bay, Biscayne Bay and adjacent regions were examined in order to develop paleoenvironmental prediction models for this region. Analyses of these distributions revealed distinct temporal and spatial differences in assemblages among the locations. The differences among diatom assemblages living on subaquatic vegetation and sediments, and in the water column were significant. Because concentrations of salts, total phosphorus (WTP), total nitrogen (WTN) and total organic carbon (WTOC) are partly controlled by water management in this region, diatom-based models were produced to assess these variables. Discriminant function analyses showed that diatoms can also be successfully used to reconstruct changes in the abundance of diatom assemblages typical for different habitats and life habits. ^ To interpret paleoenvironmental changes, changes in salinity, WTN, WTP and WTOC were inferred from diatoms preserved in sediment cores collected along environmental gradients in Florida Bay (4 cores) and from nearshore and offshore locations in Biscayne Bay (3 cores). The reconstructions showed that water quality conditions in these estuaries have been fluctuating for thousands of years due to natural processes and sea-level changes, but almost synchronized shifts in diatom assemblages occurred in the mid-1960’s at all coring locations (except Ninemile Bank and Bob Allen Bank in Florida Bay). These alterations correspond to the major construction of numerous water management structures on the mainland. Additionally, all the coring sites (except Card Sound Bank, Biscayne Bay and Trout Cove, Florida Bay) showed decreasing salinity and fluctuations in nutrient levels in the last two decades that correspond to increased rainfall in the 1990’s and increased freshwater discharge to the bays, a result of increased freshwater deliveries to the Everglades by South Florida Water Management District in the 1980’s and 1990’s. Reconstructions of the abundance of diatom assemblages typical for different habitats and life habits revealed multiple sources of diatoms to the coring locations and that epiphytic assemblages in both bays increased in abundance since the early 1990’s. ^

Sea-surface temperature reconstruction of sediment cores from the Skagerrak

We attempt a reconstruction of salinity levels of the central Baltic Sea based on diatom assemblages, the isotopic composition of organic matter and sedimentological expression of anoxia over the last 10 000 years. We use the data to investigate the dependence of salinity levels on climate evolution and isostasy. Changes in salinity of surface and deep waters were most pronounced from 8400 to approximately 5000 cal. BP. Density stratification between salty deep and fresher surface waters caused the frequent development of anoxic conditions and deposition of laminated sediments on large parts of the sea floor in the central Baltic Sea, and dramatic changes in organic carbon-accumulation rates. From 5000 to 3100 cal. BP, the salinity of the basin decreased, oxygenation of deep sea floors was improved, and fertility of the sea surface was significantly reduced. This is reflected by low accumulation rates of organic carbon in bioturbated sediments. Since 2800 cal. BP, salinity rose again and anoxic periods were more common. Even though the major steps in environmental evolution in the Baltic Sea coincide with known patterns of climatic change of the North Atlantic realm over the last 10 000 years, we find no conclusive evidence for synchronous changes or linear responses on submillennial timescales. However, we note that major variations in our salinity records agree with temporal patterns of reconstructed summer warmth and winter precipitation in southern Scandinavia. Both types of record suggest that climate in the mid-Holocene was far from stable. Our data also confirm that climate evolution over the late Holocene had significant impact on environmental conditions in the Baltic Sea.

Alkenone accumulation rates, stable carbon isotope record, and sea surface temperature reconstruction for IODP Site 306-U1313

Here we present orbitally-resolved records of terrestrial higher plant leaf wax input to the North Atlantic over the last 3.5 Ma, based on the accumulation of long-chain n-alkanes and n-alkanl-1-ols at IODP Site U1313. These lipids are a major component of dust, even in remote ocean areas, and have a predominantly aeolian origin in distal marine sediments. Our results demonstrate that around 2.7 million years ago (Ma), coinciding with the intensification of the Northern Hemisphere glaciation (NHG), the aeolian input of terrestrial material to the North Atlantic increased drastically. Since then, during every glacial the aeolian input of higher plant material was up to 30 times higher than during interglacials. The close correspondence between aeolian input to the North Atlantic and other dust records indicates a globally uniform response of dust sources to Quaternary climate variability, although the amplitude of variation differs among areas. We argue that the increased aeolian input at Site U1313 during glacials is predominantly related to the episodic appearance of continental ice sheets in North America and the associated strengthening of glaciogenic dust sources. Evolutional spectral analyses of the n-alkane records were therefore used to determine the dominant astronomical forcing in North American ice sheet advances. These results demonstrate that during the early Pleistocene North American ice sheet dynamics responded predominantly to variations in obliquity (41 ka), which argues against previous suggestions of precession-related variations in Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the early Pleistocene.

Radiocarbon dating, oxygen isotopes, and sea-level reconstruction of sediment core GeoB5844-2 from the northern end of the Red Sea

Based on a radiocarbon and paleomagnetically dated sediment record from the northern Red Sea and the exceptional sensitivity of the regional changes in the oxygen isotope composition of sea water to the sea-level-dependent water exchange with the Indian Ocean, we provide a new global sea-level reconstruction spanning the last glacial period. The sea-level record has been extracted from the temperature-corrected benthic stable oxygen isotopes using coral-based sea-level data as constraints for the sea-level/oxygen isotope relationship. Although, the general features of this millennial-scale sea-level records have strong similarities to the rather symmetric and gradual Southern Hemisphere climate patterns, we observe, in constrast to previous findings, pronounced sea level rises of up to 25 m to generally correspond with Northern Hemisphere warmings as recorded in Greenland ice-core interstadial intervals whereas sea-level lowstands mostly occur during cold phases. Corroborated by CLIMBER-2 model results, the close connection of millennial-scale sea-level changes to Northern Hemisphere temperature variations indicates a primary climatic control on the mass balance of the major Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and does not require a considerable Antarctic contribution.

Sea surface temperature reconstruction for sediment core M35003-4 in the western tropical North Atlantic

Planktonic foraminiferal census counts are used to construct high-resolution sea surface temperature (SST) and subsurface (thermocline) temperature records at a core site in the Tobago Basin, Lesser Antilles. The record is used to document climatic variability at this tropical site in comparison to middle- and high-latitude sites and to test current concepts of cross-equatorial heat transports as a major player in interhemispheric climate variability. Temperatures are estimated using transfer function and modern analog techniques. Glacial - maximum cooling of 2.5°-3°C is indicated; maximum cooling by 4°C is inferred for isotope stage 3. The SST record displays millennial-scale variability with temperature jumps of up to 3°C and closely tracks the structure of ice-core Dansgaard/Oeschger cycles. SST variations in part of the record run opposite to the SST evolution at high northern latitude sites, pointing to thermohaline circulation and marine heat transport as an important factor driving SST in the tropical and high-latitude Atlantic, both on orbital and suborbital timescales.

Sea surface temperature and primary productivity reconstruction of sediment core SO130-275KL from the northeastern Arabian Sea during the late Holocene

Variability in the oceanic environment of the Arabian Sea region is strongly influenced by the seasonal monsoon cycle of alternating wind directions. Prominent and well studied is the summer monsoon, but much less is known about late Holocene changes in winter monsoon strength with winds from the northeast that drive convective mixing and high surface ocean productivity in the northeastern Arabian Sea. To establish a high-resolution record of winter monsoon variability for the late Holocene, we analyzed alkenone-derived sea surface temperature (SST) variations and proxies of primary productivity (organic carbon and d15N) in a well-laminated sediment core from the Pakistan continental margin. Weak winter monsoon intensities off Pakistan are indicated from 400 B.C. to 250 A.D. by reduced productivity and relatively high SST. At about 250 A.D., the intensity of the winter monsoon increased off Pakistan as indicated by a trend to lower SST. We infer that monsoon conditions were relatively unstable from ~500 to 1300 A.D., because primary production and SST were highly variable. Declining SST and elevated biological production from 1400 to 1900 A.D. suggest invigorated convective winter mixing by strengthening winter monsoon circulation, most likely a regional expression of colder climate conditions during the Little Ice Age on the Northern Hemisphere. The comparison of winter monsoon intensity with records of summer monsoon intensity suggests that an inverse relationship between summer and winter monsoon strength exists in the Asian monsoon system during the late Holocene, effected by shifts in the Intertropical Convergence Zone.

A 5 million year reconstruction of sea level, temperature, and sea water d18O

Marine sediment records from the Oligocene and Miocene reveal clear 400,000-year (400-kyr) climate cycles related to variations in orbital eccentricity. These cycles are also observed in the Plio-Pleistocene records of the global carbon cycle. However they are absent in the Late Pleistocene ice-age record over the past 1.5 million years. Here, we present a simulation of global ice volume over the past 5 million years with a coupled system of four 3-D ice-sheet models. Our simulation shows that the 400-kyr long eccentricity cycles of Antarctica vary coherently with d13C records during the Pleistocene suggesting that they drive the long-term carbon cycle changes throughout the past 35 million years. The 400-kyr response of Antarctica is eventually suppressed by the dominant 100-kyr glacial cycles of the large ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere (NH).

Sea surface temperature reconstruction for the middle Pleistocene from sediment core MD03-2699

Past sea surface water conditions of the western Iberian Margin were reconstructed based on biomarker analyses of a marine deep sea core MD03-2699 from the Estremadura Spur north off Lisbon, providing new insights into orbital and suborbital-scale climate variability between marine isotope stage (MIS) 15 to MIS 9 (580 to 300 ka). We use biomarker-based proxy records such as the alkenone unsaturated index to estimate sea surface temperature (SST), the total alkenone concentration to reconstruct phytoplankton productivity, and terrestrial biomarkers to evaluate the continental input. The results extend the existing biomarker record, namely the SST for the Iberian Margin, back to the sixth climatic cycle (580 ka). A general trend of stable interglacials contrasts with glacial periods and glacial inceptions which are marked by high-frequency variability. Thus, several short-lived climatic coolings were identified by large SST decreases, the occurrence of ice-rafted detritus and high percentages of the tetraunsaturated alkenone C 37:4. Some of these events were extremely cold and similar in their general trends to the well-known Heinrich events of the last glaciation. We identified eight Heinrich-type events between 580 and 300 ka. The general deglaciation pattern detected between MIS 15 and MIS 9 is similar in their general trends to that characterizing the more recent climatic cycles, i.e., marked by two coolings separated by a short warming episode which may reflect the southward, northward, and southward migration of the Polar Front.

Winter sea surface temperature reconstruction from planktic foraminiferal transfer functions in the northeastern Arabian Sea over the last two millennia

The Indian monsoon system is an important climate feature of the northern Indian Ocean. Small variations of the wind and precipitation patterns have fundamental influence on the societal, agricultural, and economic development of India and its neighboring countries. To understand current trends, sensitivity to forcing, or natural variation, records beyond the instrumental period are needed. However, high-resolution archives of past winter monsoon variability are scarce. One potential archive of such records are marine sediments deposited on the continental slope in the NE Arabian Sea, an area where present-day conditions are dominated by the winter monsoon. In this region, winter monsoon conditions lead to distinctive changes in surface water properties, affecting marine plankton communities that are deposited in the sediment. Using planktic foraminifera as a sensitive and well-preserved plankton group, we first characterize the response of their species distribution on environmental gradients from a dataset of surface sediment samples in the tropical and sub-tropical Indian Ocean. Transfer functions for quantitative paleoenvironmental reconstructions were applied to a decadal-scale record of assemblage counts from the Pakistan Margin spanning the last 2000?years. The reconstructed temperature record reveals an intensification of winter monsoon intensity near the year 100 CE. Prior to this transition, winter temperatures were >1.5°C warmer than today. Conditions similar to the present seem to have established after 450 CE, interrupted by a singular event near 950 CE with warmer temperatures and accordingly weak winter monsoon. Frequency analysis revealed significant 75-, 40-, and 37-year cycles, which are known from decadal- to centennial-scale resolution records of Indian summer monsoon variability and interpreted as solar irradiance forcing. Our first independent record of Indian winter monsoon activity confirms that winter and summer monsoons were modulated on the same frequency bands and thus indicates that both monsoon systems are likely controlled by the same driving force.

Sea-surface temperature and salinity reconstruction for sediment core GeoB5844-2

We present high-resolution paleoceanographic records of surface and deep water conditions within the northern Red Sea covering the last glacial maximum and termination I using alkenone paleothermometry, stable oxygen isotopes, and sediment compositional data. Paleoceanographic records in the restricted desert-surrounded northern Red Sea are strongly affected by the stepwise sea level rise and appear to record and amplify well-known millennial-scale climate events from the North Atlantic realm. During the last glacial maximum (LGM), sea surface temperatures were about 4°C cooler than the late Holocene. Pronounced coolings associated with Heinrich event 1 (~2°C below the LGM level) and the Younger Dryas imply strong atmospheric teleconnections to the North Atlantic. Owing to the restricted exchange with the Indian Ocean, Red Sea salinity is particularly sensitive to changes in global sea level. Paleosalinities exceeded 50 psu during the LGM. A pronounced freshening of the surface waters is associated with the meltwater peaks MWP1a and MWP1b owing to an increased surface-near inflow of "normal" saline water from the Indian Ocean. Vertical delta18O gradients are also increased during these phases, indicating stronger surface water stratification. The combined effect of deglacial changes in sea surface temperature and salinity on water column stratification initiated the formation of two sapropel layers, which were deposited under almost anoxic condition in a stagnant water body.