The future of terrestrial mammals in the Mediterranean basin under climate change.

The Mediterranean basin is considered a hotspot of biological diversity with a long history of modification of natural ecosystems by human activities, and is one of the regions that will face extensive changes in climate. For 181 terrestrial mammals (68% of all Mediterranean mammals), we used an ensemble forecasting approach to model the future (approx. 2100) potential distribution under climate change considering five climate change model outputs for two climate scenarios. Overall, a substantial number of Mediterranean mammals will be severely threatened by future climate change, particularly endemic species. Moreover, we found important changes in potential species richness owing to climate change, with some areas (e.g. montane region in central Italy) gaining species, while most of the region will be losing species (mainly Spain and North Africa). Existing protected areas (PAs) will probably be strongly influenced by climate change, with most PAs in Africa, the Middle East and Spain losing a substantial number of species, and those PAs gaining species (e.g. central Italy and southern France) will experience a substantial shift in species composition.

Owl melanin-based plumage redness is more frequent near than away from the equator: implications on the effect of climate change on biodiversity

Climate change acts as a major new selective agent on many organisms, particularly at high latitudes where climate change is more pronounced than at lower latitudes. Studies are required to predict which species are at a high risk of extinction and whether certain phenotypes may be more affected by climate change than others. The identification of susceptible phenotypes is important for evaluating the potential negative effect of climate change on biodiversity at the inter- and intraspecific levels. Melanin-based coloration is an interesting and easily accessible candidate trait because, within certain species, reddish pheomelanin-based coloration is associated with adaptations to warm climates. However, it is unclear whether the same holds among species. We tested one prediction of this hypothesis in four owl genera (wood, scops, screech, and pygmy owls), namely that darker reddish species are more prevalent near the equator than polewards. Our comparative analysis is consistent with this prediction for the northern hemisphere, suggesting that pale reddish species may be adapted to cold climates and dark reddish species to warmer climates. Thus, climate change may have a larger negative impact on pale pheomelanic owls and favour dark pheomelanic species.

Development of FDI Climate in Russia and Estonia in the Post-Soviet Era

Tämän diplomityön tavoite on selvittää Venäjän ja Viron investointi-ilmapiirien kehitystä suorien ulkomaisten investointien osalta. Tarkastelujakson pituus on Neuvostoliiton hajoamisesta tähän päivään. Työn teoriaosassa käydään läpi suoran ulkomaisen investoinnin määritelmä ja siihen liittyviä teorioita sekä investointi-ilmapiirin käsite ja osatekijät. Venäjälle ja Viroon tulleiden suorien ulkomaisten investointien vuosittaista kehitystä tarkastellaan empiirisen osan alussa. Diplomityön loppuosassa käydään läpi erilaisia taloustieteellisiä mittareita, jotka kuvaavat investointi-ilmapiirin tai ainakin joidenkin sen osatekijöiden kehittymistä. Kyseisiä mittareita on lopulta verrattu investointivirtoihin ja samalla on etsitty mahdollisia korrelaatioita. Mittarit paljastavat eroja Venäjän ja Viron investointi-ilmapiirien kehityksissä. Ne selittivät ainakin osittain suorienulkomaisten investointien virtoja Venäjälle ja Viroon.

European climate variations over the past half-millennium reconstructed from groundwater

Temperature reconstructions for recent centuries are the basis of estimations of the natural variability in the climate system before and during the onset of anthropogenic perturbation. Here we present, for the first time, an independent and physically based reconstruction of mean annual temperature over the past half millennium obtained from groundwater in France. The reconstructed noble gas temperature (NGT) record suggests cooler than present climate conditions throughout the 16th-19th centuries. Periods of warming occur in the 17th-18th and 20th century, while cooling is reconstructed in the 19th century. A noticeable coincidence with other temperature records is demonstrated. Deuterium excess varies in parallel with the NGT, and indicates variation in the seasonality of the aquifer recharge; whereas high excess air in groundwater indicates periods with high oscillations of the water table.

Effect of hip flexion angle on hamstring optimum length after a single set of concentric contractions.

The eccentric contraction mode was proposed to be the primary stimulus for optimum angle (angle at which peak torque occurs) shift. However, the training range of motion (or muscle excursion range) could be a stimulus as important. The aim of this study was to assess the influence of the training range of motion stimulus on the hamstring optimum length. It was hypothesised that performing a single set of concentric contractions beyond optimal length (seated at 80° of hip flexion) would lead to an immediate shift of the optimum angle to longer muscle length while performing it below (supine at 0° of hip flexion) would not provide any shift. Eleven male participants were assessed on an isokinetic dynamometer. In both positions, the test consisted of 30 consecutive knee flexions at 4.19 rad · s⁻¹. The optimum angle was significantly shifted by ∼15° in the direction of longer muscle length after the contractions at 80° of hip flexion, while a non-significant shift of 3° was found at 0°. The hamstring fatigability was not influenced by the hip position. It was concluded that the training range of motion seems to be a relevant stimulus for shifting the optimum angle to longer muscle length. Moreover, fatigue appears as a mechanism partly responsible for the observed shift.

Continent wide response of mountain vegetation to climate change

Climate impact studies have indicated ecological fingerprints of recent global warming across a wide range of habitats. Whereas these studies have shown responses from various local case studies, a coherent large-scale account on temperature-driven changes of biotic communities has been lacking. Here we use 867 vegetation samples above the treeline from 60 summit sites in all major European mountain systems to show that ongoing climate change gradually transforms mountain plant communities. We provide evidence that the more cold-adapted species decline and the more warm-adapted species increase, a process described here as thermophilisation. At the scale of individual mountains this general trend may not be apparent, but at the¦larger, continental scale we observed a significantly higher abundance of thermophilic species in 2008, compared with 2001. Thermophilisation of mountain plant communities mirrors the degree of recent warming and is more pronounced in areas where the temperature increase has been higher. In view of the projected climate change the observed transformation suggests a progressive decline of cold mountain habitats and their biota.

Genetic variation for carbon isotope composition in Juglans regia L.: relationships with growth, phenology and climate of origin

Among the traits of breeding interest for the common walnut tree Juglans regia L., characteristics such as timing of budbreak and leaf fall, water-use efficiency and growth performance are regarded as being of utmost relevance in Mediterranean conditions. The authors evaluated intraspecific variation in $\delta$13C (carbon isotope composition, surrogate of intrinsic water-use efficiency, WUE$_{\rm i}$) for 22 J. regia families grown in a progeny test under supplementary irrigation, and investigated whether such variation correlated with climatic indicators of native habitats. The genetic relationships between $\delta$13C, growth and phenology were also assessed during two consecutive years. Overall, the most water-use-efficient families (i.e. with higher $\delta$13C), which originated mainly from drought-prone provenance regions which have a high vapour pressure deficit and low rainfall, exhibited less height growth and smaller DBH. Using a stepwise regression procedure, $\delta$13C was included as the main explanatory variable of genotypic variation in growth traits, together with growing season duration (for DBH in both years) and flushing (for height in 2007). It was concluded that WUE$_{\rm i}$ is largely unconnected to phenology effects in the explanation of growth performance for J. regia, therefore suggesting the opportunity of simultaneously selecting for low WUE$_{\rm i}$ and extended growing period to maximise productivity in non-water-limited environments.

Climate and human forcing of Alpine river flow

River flow in Alpine environments is likely to be highly sensitive to climate change because of the effects of warming upon snow and ice, and hence the intra-annual distribution of river runoff. It is also likely to be influenced strongly by human impacts both upon hydrology (e.g. flow abstraction) and river regulation. This paper compares the river flow and sediment flux of two Alpine drainage basins over the last 5 to 7 decades, one that is largely unimpacted by human activities, one strongly impacted by flow abstraction for hydroelectricity. The analysis shows that both river flow and sediment transport capacity are strongly dependent upon the effects of temperature and precipitation availability upon snow accumulation. As the latter tends to increase annual maximum flows, and given the non-linear form of most sediment transport laws, current warming trends may lead to increased sedimentation in Alpine rivers. However, extension to a system impacted upon by flow abstraction reveals the dominant effect that human activity can have upon river sedimentation but also how human response to sediment management has co-evolved with climate forcing to make disentangling the two very difficult.

Climate Change, Neutrality and the Harm Principle

This paper aims at evaluating the compatibility of coercive climate policies with liberal neutrality. More precisely, it focuses on the doctrine of state neutrality as associated with the "harm principle". It argues that given the difficulty of attributing causal responsibilities for climate harms to individuals, the harm principle doesn't work in this case, at least if one endorses a liberal atomistic ontology. Furthermore, the definition of what constitutes climate harms implies making moral assumptions, which makes it impossible to justify climate policies in a neutral way. Finally, the paper shows another consequence of applying neutrality to the case of climate change, that is the risk of a shift from political forms of decision-making to technocracy. Focusing too much on liberty of choice may (paradoxically) be to the detriment of political freedom. The paper concludes that climate change is an intrinsically moral issue and that it should be the occasion of a political debate about our current values and lifestyles. It should not be reduced to a mere question of carbon metric.

Genomic evidence for role of inversion 3RP of Drosophila melanogaster in facilitating climate change adaptation.

Chromosomal inversion polymorphisms are common in animals and plants, and recent models suggest that alternative arrangements spread by capturing different combinations of alleles acting additively or epistatically to favour local adaptation. It is also thought that inversions typically maintain favoured combinations for a long time by suppressing recombination between alternative chromosomal arrangements. Here, we consider patterns of linkage disequilibrium and genetic divergence in an old inversion polymorphism in Drosophila melanogaster (In(3R)Payne) known to be associated with climate change adaptation and a recent invasion event into Australia. We extracted, karyotyped and sequenced whole chromosomes from two Australian populations, so that changes in the arrangement of the alleles between geographically separated tropical and temperate areas could be compared. Chromosome-wide linkage disequilibrium (LD) analysis revealed strong LD within the region spanned by In(3R)Payne. This genomic region also showed strong differentiation between the tropical and the temperate populations, but no differentiation between different karyotypes from the same population, after controlling for chromosomal arrangement. Patterns of differentiation across the chromosome arm and in gene ontologies were enhanced by the presence of the inversion. These data support the notion that inversions are strongly selected by bringing together combinations of genes, but it is still not clear if such combinations act additively or epistatically. Our data suggest that climatic adaptation through inversions can be dynamic, reflecting changes in the relative abundance of different forms of an inversion and ongoing evolution of allelic content within an inversion.

The economic relevance of climate variables in agriculture: the case of Spain

We estimate how climate variables affect price and acreage of productive farmland using the Ricardian approach. Furthermore, we use our estimations to evaluate the joint effects of possible cli- mate changes within the time horizon of 2010 and 2050. Our results show that the price of rainfed land in Spain tends to increase but rainfed acreage decreases. On the other hand, the effect on irrigated farmland price and acreage presents some mixed results, however, in the long run the dominant pattern is clearly increasing for both prices and acreage.

The economic relevance of climate variables in agriculture: The case of Spain

We estimate the impact of the different climate variables on the value of Spanish farmland. We distinguish between irrigated and non-irrigated lands and use data on temperature, precipitations, physical and socioeconomic characteristics to measure these effects on farm prices and in the number of hectares of farmland. We conclude presenting the main results of our analysis, region by region, and examining the policies that could be more effective to prevent undesired effects.

Relationships between climate and winter cereal grain quality in Finland and their potential for forecasting

Selostus: Sään vaikutus syysviljojen hehtolitran painoon ennusteen laadinnan näkökulmasta