An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the water sector in the Turks and Caicos Islands

The best description of water resources for Grand Turk was offered by Pérez Monteagudo (2000) who suggested that rain water was insufficient to ensure a regular water supply although water catchment was being practised and water catchment possibilities had been analysed. Limestone islands, mostly flat and low lying, have few possibilities for large scale surface storage, and groundwater lenses exist in very delicate equilibrium with saline seawater, and are highly likely to collapse due to sea level rise, improper extraction, drought, tidal waves or other extreme event. A study on the impact of climate change on water resources in the Turks and Caicos Islands is a challenging task, due to the fact that the territory of the Islands covers different environmental resources and conditions, and accurate data are lacking. The present report is based on collected data wherever possible, including grey data from several sources such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Cuban meteorological service data sets. Other data were also used, including the author’s own estimates and modelling results. Although challenging, this was perhaps the best approach towards analysing the situation. Furthermore, IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios were used in the present study in an effort to reduce uncertainty. The main conclusion from the scenario approach is that the trend observed in precipitation during the period 1961 - 1990 is decreasing. Similar behaviour was observed in the Caribbean region. This trend is associated with meteorological causes, particularly with the influence of the North Atlantic Anticyclone. The annual decrease in precipitation is estimated to be between 30-40% with uncertain impacts on marine resources. After an assessment of fresh water resources in Turks and Caicos Islands, the next step was to estimate residential water demand based on a high fertility rate scenario for the Islands (one selected from four scenarios and compared to countries having similar characteristics). The selected scenario presents higher projections on consumption growth, enabling better preparation for growing water demand. Water demand by tourists (stopover and excursionists, mainly cruise passengers) was also obtained, based on international daily consumption estimates. Tourism demand forecasts for Turks and Caicos Islands encompass the forty years between 2011 and 2050 and were obtained by means of an Artificial Neural Networks approach. for the A2 and B2 scenarios, resulting in the relation BAU>B2>A2 in terms of tourist arrivals and water demand levels from tourism. Adaptation options and policies were analysed. Resolving the issue of the best technology to be used for Turks and Caicos Islands is not directly related to climate change. Total estimated water storage capacity is about 1, 270, 800 m3/ year with 80% capacity load for three plants. However, almost 11 desalination plants have been detected on Turks and Caicos Islands. Without more data, it is not possible to estimate long term investment to match possible water demand and more complex adaptation options. One climate change adaptation option would be the construction of elevated (30 metres or higher) storm resistant water reservoirs. The unit cost of the storage capacity is the sum of capital costs and operational and maintenance costs. Electricity costs to pump water are optional as water should, and could, be stored for several months. The costs arising for water storage are in the range of US$ 0.22 cents/m3 without electricity costs. Pérez Monteagudo (2000) estimated water prices at around US$ 2.64/m3 in stand points, US$ 7.92 /m3 for government offices, and US$ 13.2 /m3for cistern truck vehicles. These data need to be updated. As Turks and Caicos Islands continues to depend on tourism and Reverse Osmosis (RO) for obtaining fresh water, an unavoidable condition to maintaining and increasing gross domestic product(GDP) and population welfare, dependence on fossil fuels and vulnerability to increasingly volatile prices will constitute an important restriction. In this sense, mitigation supposes a synergy with adaptation. Energy demand and emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) were also estimated using an emissions factor of 2. 6 tCO2/ tonne of oil equivalent (toe). Assuming a population of 33,000 inhabitants, primary energy demand was estimated for Turks and Caicos Islands at 110,000 toe with electricity demand of around 110 GWh. The business as usual (BAU), as well as the mitigation scenarios were estimated. The BAU scenario suggests that energy use should be supported by imported fossil fuels with important improvements in energy efficiency. The mitigation scenario explores the use of photovoltaic and concentrating solar power, and wind energy. As this is a preliminary study, the local potential and locations need to be identified to provide more relevant estimates. Macroeconomic assumptions are the same for both scenarios. By 2050, Turks and Caicos Islands could demand 60 m toe less than for the BAU scenario.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and human settlements Sector in Barbados

This study assesses the potential economic impact of climate change on coastal human settlements in the Caribbean, with specific reference to Barbados, and evaluates the costs and benefits of undertaking various adaptation strategies. The aim is to assist Caribbean territories in developing the strategies and capacity needed to deal with the potential impact of severe weather events that are anticipated to occur with increased frequency and intensity as a result of climate change. Some of the key anticipated manifestations of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources.This research focuses on how human settlements distributed along the coast of Guyana, especially those in low elevation coastal zones (LECZ)are affected by these impacts. Focusing on three potential transmission sources - sea-level rise, stronger storm hazards and increased precipitation – the study considers the vulnerability of populations in the LECZ areas and estimates the overall threat posed by climate change to coastal populations and infrastructure. Vulnerability to climate change (measured as exposed assets) was estimated for four emission scenarios as outlined by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), namely the A1, A2, B1 and B2 scenarios for the period 2010 to 2100 and as detailed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), using global circulation models (GCM) and storm surge hazard maps.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the health sector In Jamaica

Climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon in which the earth‘s climate goes through cycles of warming and cooling; these changes usually take place incrementally over millennia. Over the past century, there has been an anomalous increase in global temperature, giving rise to accelerated climate change. It is widely accepted that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as industries have contributed significantly to the increase in global temperatures. The existence and survival of all living organisms is predicated on the ability of the environment in which they live not only to provide conditions for their basic needs but also conditions suitable for growth and reproduction. Unabated climate change threatens the existence of biophysical and ecological systems on a planetary scale. The present study aims to examine the economic impact of climate change on health in Jamaica over the period 2011-2050. To this end, three disease conditions with known climate sensitivity and importance to Jamaican public health were modelled. These were: dengue fever, leptospirosis and gastroenteritis in children under age 5. Historical prevalence data on these diseases were obtained from the Ministry of Health Jamaica, the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre, the Climate Studies Group Mona, University of the West Indies Mona campus, and the Meteorological Service of Jamaica. Data obtained spanned a twelve-year period of 1995-2007. Monthly data were obtained for dengue and gastroenteritis, while for leptospirosis, the annual number of cases for 1995-2005 was utilized. The two SRES emission scenarios chosen were A2 and B2 using the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM) global climate model to predict climate variables for these scenarios. A business as usual (BAU) scenario was developed using historical disease data for the period 2000-2009 (dengue fever and gastroenteritis) and 1995-2005 (leptospirosis) as the reference decades for the respective diseases. The BAU scenario examined the occurrence of the diseases in the absence of climate change. It assumed that the disease trend would remain unchanged over the projected period and the number of cases of disease for each decade would be the same as the reference decade. The model used in the present study utilized predictive empirical statistical modelling to extrapolate the climate/disease relationship in time, to estimate the number of climate change-related cases under future climate change scenarios. The study used a Poisson regression model that considered seasonality and lag effects to determine the best-fit model in relation to the diseases under consideration. Zhang and others (2008), in their review of climate change and the transmission of vector-borne diseases, found that: ―Besides climatic variables, few of them have included other factors that can affect the transmission of vector-borne disease….‖ (Zhang 2008) Water, sanitation and health expenditure are key determinants of health. In the draft of the second communication to IPCC, Jamaica noted the vulnerability of public health to climate change, including sanitation and access to water (MSJ/UNDP, 2009). Sanitation, which in its broadest context includes the removal of waste (excreta, solid, or other hazardous waste), is a predictor of vector-borne diseases (e.g. dengue fever), diarrhoeal diseases (such as gastroenteritis) and zoonoses (such as leptospirosis). In conceptualizing the model, an attempt was made to include non-climate predictors of these climate-sensitive diseases. The importance of sanitation and water access to the control of dengue, gastroenteritis and leptospirosis were included in the Poisson regression model. The Poisson regression model obtained was then used to predict the number of disease cases into the future (2011-2050) for each emission scenario. After projecting the number of cases, the cost associated with each scenario was calculated using four cost components. 1. Treatment cost morbidity estimate. The treatment cost for the number of cases was calculated using reference values found in the literature for each condition. The figures were derived from studies of the cost of treatment and represent ambulatory and non-fatal hospitalized care for dengue fever and gastroenteritis. Due to the paucity of published literature on the health care cost associated with leptospirosis, only the cost of diagnosis and antibiotic therapy were included in the calculation. 2. Mortality estimates. Mortality estimates are recorded as case fatality rates. Where local data were available, these were utilized. Where these were unavailable, appropriate reference values from the literature were used. 3. Productivity loss. Productivity loss was calculated using a human capital approach, by multiplying the expected number of productive days lost by the caregiver and/or the infected person, by GDP per capita per day (US$ 14) at 2008 GDP using 2008 US$ exchange rates. 4. No-option cost. The no-option cost refers to adaptation strategies for the control of dengue fever which are ongoing and already a part of the core functions of the Vector Control Division of the Ministry of Health, Jamaica. An estimated US$ 2.1 million is utilized each year in conducting activities to prevent the post-hurricane spread of vector borne diseases and diarrhoea. The cost includes public education, fogging, laboratory support, larvicidal activities and surveillance. This no-option cost was converted to per capita estimates, using population estimates for Jamaica up to 2050 obtained from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN, 2006) and the assumption of one expected major hurricane per decade. During the decade 2000-2009, Jamaica had an average inflation of 10.4% (CIA Fact book, last updated May 2011). This average decadal inflation rate was applied to the no-option cost, which was inflated by 10% for each successive decade to adjust for changes in inflation over time.

The CARIFORUM-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA): an assessment of issues relating to market access, safeguards and implications for regional integration

The recent collapse of the Doha round once again underscores the tenuous nature of international trade negotiations. Likewise, the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between the CARIFORUM grouping and the European Union (EU) has generated a great deal of discussion and debate over the past several months. What has clearly emerged is the existence of two diametrically opposed views on the impact and usefulness of the agreement. One view has it that the EPA is a major breakthrough in trade relations that will greatly benefit the region. On the other hand, some see it as being detrimental to the region and perhaps a total capitulation to the EU on the part of the CARIFORUM. They assert that it is part of a global EU strategy to impose World Trade Organization (WTO) policies on developing nations and get around the Doha obstacles. Both sides in this debate attempt to back up their views with reference to the text of the agreement. The objective of this review is to shed some light on the issues driving this debate particularly in the areas of market access, the impact on tariff revenues, and the implications for regional integration. This review also attempts to clarify and distill some of the main contentious issues regarding the EPA and to inform further discussion regarding an implementation plan. The approach is based on detailed study of the EPA text and its annexes plus extensive interviews with some of the main negotiators on the CARIFORUM side. Interviews were conducted both in person and via the Internet as many of the regional negotiators live or work outside of the region. The reviewer also attended presentations and discussions with some of the leading regional critics of the agreement.

(In)visíveis sequelas: a violência psicológica contra a mulher sob o enfoque gestáltico

A modalidade violência psicológica é mais conhecida pela sua “invisibilidade” no âmbito público em razão de, entre outros fatores, ocorrer mais frequentemente na esfera privada, bem como por não deixar marcas físicas. Atualmente, a Lei 11.340/2006, batizada de “Lei Maria da Penha”, depois de sancionada, traduz uma forma de amparo legal e institucionalizado para as mulheres. Empregamos a concepção de gênero segundo Scott (1991), como uma das ferramentas analíticas que permitem identificar nexos entre a construção socioeconômica da violência e as políticas do Estado. Neste panorama, apresentamos como objetivo geral desta pesquisa empírica desvelar algumas (in) visíveis sequelas psíquicas e sociais e de modo específico as repercussões na subjetividade da mulher que vivencia situações de violência psicológica ocorridas em âmbito doméstico e intrafamiliar. As análises foram realizadas na perspectiva Gestáltica, uma abordagem psicológica do contato consciente, cuja intervenção permite o fortalecimento do suporte interno e auto-regulação saudável, de modo a superar situações que obscurecem as funções e fronteiras de contato. Trata-se de uma pesquisa clínico-qualitativa de base fenomenológico-existencial-gestáltica e hermenêutica. Os procedimentos utilizados foram: submissão do projeto ao Comitê de Ética do CCS/UFPA; obtenção da autorização Institucional; identificação e convite a três mulheres para participarem da pesquisa, segundo o perfil de inclusão na amostra: disponibilidade para a pesquisa, faixa etária de 25 a 45 anos, que esteve ou está vivenciando situação de violência psicológica com seu marido/companheiro. Posteriormente, foi assinado o Termo de Consentimento Livre e Esclarecido e realizado as entrevistas semi-dirigidas através de perguntas abertas (gravadas em áudio). As mesmas foram transcritas e analisadas. O local da pesquisa foi o Centro de Referência Maria do Pará. Utilizamos para a análise dos discursos coletados a compreensão de Ricouer (1975) e os conceitos Gestálticos de contato, funções e fronteiras de contato, mecanismos de defesa, self, ajustamento criativo e awareness. O resultado aponta para o desvelamento de vividos permeados de agressões verbais em forma de humilhações, xingamentos, ofensas, ciúmes, desqualificação de sua aparência física, falta de diálogo, isolamento social e emocional, medo, sofrimento, dor, angústia, culpa, vergonha, sentimentos de ódio, raiva, tristeza e impotência diante de tal violência. Concluímos que a “invisibilidade” de tais experiências de violência psicológica gera visíveis interrupções no contato consigo mesma, em suas relações familiares e sociais, bem como, imprime profundas e danosas desestruturações na personalidade e na maneira da mulher expressar sua subjetividade.

Pesos de abate e uréia protegida na dieta de terminação em confinamento de bovinos Nelore não castrados

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Physiological Parameters in Neonatal Lambs of the Bergamasca Breed

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Crise de hegemonia e emergência de novos atores na Bolívia: o governo de Evo Morales

The presidency of Evo Morales, indigenous leader and who heads the party Movement Towards Socialism (MAS), opens a series of transformations in several dimensions. The changes in socio-economic and political power express the critic of long-term coloniality relations between a dominant white elite and an indigenous subordinate majority that deepens after national independence. Following this perspective, present in sectors of support to the government, the strategy of the MAS cannot follow the tradition of social revolutions that operated structural breaks in the mode of production and the state organization, but points to a new decolonizing revolution, cultural and political, articulating an indigenism of broad nature, flexible and open to popular social movements. This view is facing critics in sectors of the left that identify the renewal of capitalist modernization process initiated in 1952 under the leadership of the Nationalist Revolutionary Movement (MNR), extending citizenship and democratizing access to the state for recognition of Indians as such. From this perspective, the transformations proposed by MAS tend to favor a system restoration by diversifying its economic and social base. From the contrast provided by these two lines of interpretation, we intend to analyze the structural possibilities of the strategy of the government of Evo Morales, taking as historical reference the transformations wrought by the nationalist revolution of 1952 and the neoliberal reforms initiated in 1980.

Thermodynamic, Economic and Emissions Analysis of a Micro Gas Turbine Cogeneration System operating on Biofuels

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEG

Distribuição geográfica de agravos nutricionais entre escolares na cidade de Piracicaba-SP, Brasil

The objective was to map the prevalence of nutritional disorders in children attending the 1st to 4th grade of 12 public elementary schools located in the 5 administrative regions of Piracicaba, SP, each with its own socioeconomic profi le, from 2003 to 2006. A total of 16,068 children, divided into 8,133 (50.6%) girls and 7,935 (49.4%) boys, aged 7 to 11 years, were weighed and measured. Their nutritional status indicators heightfor-age (H/A), weight-for-age (W/A), and body mass index-for-age (BMI/A) were compared with those of the NCHS/CDC 2000 reference population and classifi ed according to the z-score cut-off points recommended by the World Health Organization. During that period, the Western Region, which has the lowest socioeconomic indicators, had the lowest z-score medians of the three anthropometric indicators assessed (p<0.0001) and was the only region to have a higher-than-expected stunting prevalence (3.0% with Z < -2). Excess weight prevalence was higher than expected in all regions. The Central Region, which has the highest socioeconomic indicators, had the highest excess weight prevalence (6.0% with Z > 2). Time had a positive effect on the stunted children, reducing the stunting rates in the regions with the lowest socioeconomic indicators. In conclusion, the three nutritional status indicators showed results suitable to the social and economic characteristics of each region. Although nutritional disorders have particular characteristics, they are a problem to the entire population.

Solving the multiobjective environmental/economic dispatch problem using weighted sum and ε-constraint strategies and a predictor-corrector primal-dual interior point method

This paper proposes a technique for solving the multiobjective environmental/economic dispatch problem using the weighted sum and ε-constraint strategies, which transform the problem into a set of single-objective problems. In the first strategy, the objective function is a weighted sum of the environmental and economic objective functions. The second strategy considers one of the objective functions: in this case, the environmental function, as a problem constraint, bounded above by a constant. A specific predictor-corrector primal-dual interior point method which uses the modified log barrier is proposed for solving the set of single-objective problems generated by such strategies. The purpose of the modified barrier approach is to solve the problem with relaxation of its original feasible region, enabling the method to be initialized with unfeasible points. The tests involving the proposed solution technique indicate i) the efficiency of the proposed method with respect to the initialization with unfeasible points, and ii) its ability to find a set of efficient solutions for the multiobjective environmental/economic dispatch problem.

Políticas de acesso ao cargo de diretor de escola pública da educação básica – novas perspectivas a partir da realidade do município de Franca/SP

Pós-graduação em Planejamento e Análise de Políticas Públicas - FCHS

Quantificação de metais potencialmente tóxicos em mexilhão dourado (Limnoperna fortunei) por espectrometria de absorção atômica com fonte contínua e alta resolução empregando amostragem direta de sólidos

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Spatial reference of black capuchin monkeys in Brazilian Atlantic Forest: egocentric or allocentric?

Wild primates occupy large home ranges and travel long distances to reach goals. However, how primates are able to remember goal locations and travel efficiently is unclear. Few studies present consistent results regarding what reference system primates use to navigate, and what kind of spatial information they recognize. We analysed the pattern of navigation of one wild group of black capuchin monkeys, Cebus nigritus, at Atlantic Forest for 100 days in Carlos Botelho State Park (PECB), Brazil. We tested predictions based on the alternative hypotheses that black capuchin monkeys navigate using a sequence of landmarks as an egocentric reference system or an allocentric reference system, or both, depending on availability of food resources. The group location was recorded using a GPS device collecting coordinates at 5 min intervals, and route maps were generated using ArcView v9.3.1. The study group travelled through habitual routes during less than 30% of our study sample, and revisited resources from different starting points, using different paths and routes, even when prominent landmarks near feeding locations were not visible. The study group used habitual routes more frequently when high-quality foods were scarce, and navigated using different paths when revisiting food sources. Results support the hypothesis that black capuchin monkeys at PECB navigate using both egocentric and allocentric systems of reference, depending on the quality and distribution of the food resource they find. (C) 2010 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.