Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) : A pedagogical guide for decision makers in the public sector

This guide introduces Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), a performance measurement technique, in such a way as to be appropriate to decision makers with little or no background in economics and operational research. The use of mathematics is kept to a minimum. This guide therefore adopts a strong practical approach in order to allow decision makers to conduct their own efficiency analysis and to easily interpret results. DEA helps decision makers for the following reasons: - By calculating an efficiency score, it indicates if a firm is efficient or has capacity for improvement. - By setting target values for input and output, it calculates how much input must be decreased or output increased in order to become efficient. - By identifying the nature of returns to scale, it indicates if a firm has to decrease or increase its scale (or size) in order to minimize the average cost. - By identifying a set of benchmarks, it specifies which other firms' processes need to be analysed in order to improve its own practices.

Enzyme replacement therapy with agalsidase alfa in patients with Fabry's disease: an analysis of registry data.

BACKGROUND: We analysed 5-year treatment with agalsidase alfa enzyme replacement therapy in patients with Fabry's disease who were enrolled in the Fabry Outcome Survey observational database (FOS). METHODS: Baseline and 5-year data were available for up to 181 adults (126 men) in FOS. Serial data for cardiac mass and function, renal function, pain, and quality of life were assessed. Safety and sensitivity analyses were done in patients with baseline and at least one relevant follow-up measurement during the 5 years (n=555 and n=475, respectively). FINDINGS: In patients with baseline cardiac hypertrophy, treatment resulted in a sustained reduction in left ventricular mass (LVM) index after 5 years (from 71.4 [SD 22.5] g/m(2.7) to 64.1 [18.7] g/m(2.7), p=0.0111) and a significant increase in midwall fractional shortening (MFS) from 14.3% (2.3) to 16.0% (3.8) after 3 years (p=0.02). In patients without baseline hypertrophy, LVM index and MFS remained stable. Mean yearly fall in estimated glomerular filtration rate versus baseline after 5 years of enzyme replacement therapy was -3.17 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) for men and -0.89 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) for women. Average pain, measured by Brief Pain Inventory score, improved significantly, from 3.7 (2.3) at baseline to 2.5 (2.4) after 5 years (p=0.0023). Quality of life, measured by deviation scores from normal EuroQol values, improved significantly, from -0.24 (0.3) at baseline to -0.17 (0.3) after 5 years (p=0.0483). Findings were confirmed by sensitivity analysis. No unexpected safety concerns were identified. INTERPRETATION: By comparison with historical natural history data for patients with Fabry's disease who were not treated with enzyme replacement therapy, long-term treatment with agalsidase alfa leads to substantial and sustained clinical benefits. FUNDING: Shire Human Genetic Therapies AB.

Reproducibility and feasibility of a 22 joints ultrasound score in rheumatoid arthritis: a study among rheumatologists with diverse expertise in musculoskeletal ultrasound

Objective: To assess reproducibility and feasibility of amusculoskeletal ultrasound (US) score for rheumatoid arthritis amongrheumatologist with diverse expertise in US, working in private orhospital practice.Methods: The Swiss Sonography in Arthritis and Rheumatism(SONAR) group has developed a semi-quantitative score for RA usingOMERACT criteria for synovitis and erosion. The score was taught torheumatologists trained in US through two workshops. Subsequently,they were encouraged to practice in their office. For the study, we used6 US machines of different quality, each with a different patient.19 readers randomly selected among rheumatologists who haveattended both workshops, were asked to score anonymously at leastone patient. To assess whether some factors influence the score, weasked each reader to answer questionnaire describing his experiencewith US.Results: 19 rheumatologists have performed 29 scans, each patienthaving been evaluated by 4 to 6 readers. Median time for examcompletion was 20 minutes (range 15 to 60 mn). 53% ofrheumatologists work in private practice. Graph 1 show the global greyscale score for each patient. Weighted kappa was calculated for eachpair of reader using stata11. Almost all kappa of poor agreement wereobtained with a low quality device or by an assessor who havepreviously performed less than 5 scores himself.Conclusions: This is the first study to show an US score for RAfeasible by rheumatologists with diverse expertise in US both in privateand hospital practice. Reproducibility seemed to be influenced by thequality of device and previous experience with the score.

Quality of life depends on the drinking pattern in alcohol-dependent patients.

AIMS: In patients with alcohol dependence, health-related quality of life (QOL) is reduced compared with that of a normal healthy population. The objective of the current analysis was to describe the evolution of health-related QOL in adults with alcohol dependence during a 24-month period after initial assessment for alcohol-related treatment in a routine practice setting, and its relation to drinking pattern which was evaluated across clusters based on the predominant pattern of alcohol use, set against the influence of baseline variables METHODS: The Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Survey (MOS-SF-36) was used to measure QOL at baseline and quarterly for 2 years among participants in CONTROL, a prospective observational study of patients initiating treatment for alcohol dependence. The sample consisted of 160 adults with alcohol dependence (65.6% males) with a mean (SD) age of 45.6 (12.0) years. Alcohol use data were collected using TimeLine Follow-Back. Based on the participant's reported alcohol use, three clusters were identified: 52 (32.5%) mostly abstainers, 64 (40.0%) mostly moderate drinkers and 44 (27.5%) mostly heavy drinkers. Mixed-effect linear regression analysis was used to identify factors that were potentially associated with the mental and physical summary MOS-SF-36 scores at each time point. RESULTS: The mean (SD) MOS-SF-36 mental component summary score (range 0-100, norm 50) was 35.7 (13.6) at baseline [mostly abstainers: 40.4 (14.6); mostly moderate drinkers 35.6 (12.4); mostly heavy drinkers 30.1 (12.1)]. The score improved to 43.1 (13.4) at 3 months [mostly abstainers: 47.4 (12.3); mostly moderate drinkers 44.2 (12.7); mostly heavy drinkers 35.1 (12.9)], to 47.3 (11.4) at 12 months [mostly abstainers: 51.7 (9.7); mostly moderate drinkers 44.8 (11.9); mostly heavy drinkers 44.1 (11.3)], and to 46.6 (11.1) at 24 months [mostly abstainers: 49.2 (11.6); mostly moderate drinkers 45.7 (11.9); mostly heavy drinkers 43.7 (8.8)]. Mixed-effect linear regression multivariate analyses indicated that there was a significant association between a lower 2-year follow-up MOS-SF-36 mental score and being a mostly heavy drinker (-6.97, P < 0.001) or mostly moderate drinker (-3.34 points, P = 0.018) [compared to mostly abstainers], being female (-3.73, P = 0.004), and having a Beck Inventory scale score ≥8 (-6.54, P < 0.001), at baseline. The mean (SD) MOS-SF-36 physical component summary score was 48.8 (10.6) at baseline, remained stable over the follow-up and did not differ across the three clusters. Mixed-effect linear regression univariate analyses found that the average 2-year follow-up MOS-SF-36 physical score was increased (compared with mostly abstainers) in mostly heavy drinkers (+4.44, P = 0.007); no other variables tested influenced the MOS-SF-36 physical score. CONCLUSION: Among individuals with alcohol dependence, a rapid improvement was seen in the mental dimension of QOL following treatment initiation, which was maintained during 24 months. Improvement was associated with the pattern of alcohol use, becoming close to the general population norm in patients classified as mostly abstainers, improving substantially in mostly moderate drinkers and improving only slightly in mostly heavy drinkers. The physical dimension of QOL was generally in the normal range but was not associated with drinking patterns.

The value of selected in vitro and in silico methods to predict acute oral toxicity in a regulatory context: results from the European Project ACuteTox.

ACuteTox is a project within the 6th European Framework Programme which had as one of its goals to develop, optimise and prevalidate a non-animal testing strategy for predicting human acute oral toxicity. In its last 6 months, a challenging exercise was conducted to assess the predictive capacity of the developed testing strategies and final identification of the most promising ones. Thirty-two chemicals were tested blind in the battery of in vitro and in silico methods selected during the first phase of the project. This paper describes the classification approaches studied: single step procedures and two step tiered testing strategies. In summary, four in vitro testing strategies were proposed as best performing in terms of predictive capacity with respect to the European acute oral toxicity classification. In addition, a heuristic testing strategy is suggested that combines the prediction results gained from the neutral red uptake assay performed in 3T3 cells, with information on neurotoxicity alerts identified by the primary rat brain aggregates test method. Octanol-water partition coefficients and in silico prediction of intestinal absorption and blood-brain barrier passage are also considered. This approach allows to reduce the number of chemicals wrongly predicted as not classified (LD50>2000 mg/kg b.w.).

School composition effects in Spain

Drawing on PISA data of 2006, this study examines the impact of socio-economic school composition on science test score achievement for Spanish students in compulsory secondary schools. We define school composition in terms of the average parental human capital of students in the same school. These contextual peer effects are estimated using a semi-parametric methodology, which enables the spillovers to affect all the parameters of the educational production function. We also deal with the potential problem of self-selection of student into schools, using an artificial sorting that we argue to be independent from unobserved student’s abilities. The results indicate that the association between socio-economic school composition and test score results is clearly positive and significantly higher when computed with the semi-parametric approach. However, we find that the endogenous sorting of students into schools plays a fundamental role, given that the spillovers are significantly reduced when this selection process is ruled out from our measure of school composition effects. Specifically, the estimations suggest that the contextual peer effects are moderately positive only in those schools where the socio-economic composition is considerably elevated. In addition, we find some evidence of asymmetry of how the external effects and the sorting process actually operate, which seem affect in a different way males and females as well as high and low performance students.

Validation of a score for predicting fatal bleeding in patients receiving anticoagulation for venous thromboembolism.

BACKGROUND: The only available score to assess the risk for fatal bleeding in patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) has not been validated yet. METHODS: We used the RIETE database to validate the risk-score for fatal bleeding within the first 3 months of anticoagulation in a new cohort of patients recruited after the end of the former study. Accuracy was measured using the ROC curve analysis. RESULTS: As of December 2011, 39,284 patients were recruited in RIETE. Of these, 15,206 had not been included in the former study, and were considered to validate the score. Within the first 3 months of anticoagulation, 52 patients (0.34%; 95% CI: 0.27-0.45) died of bleeding. Patients with a risk score of <1.5 points (64.1% of the cohort) had a 0.10% rate of fatal bleeding, those with a score of 1.5-4.0 (33.6%) a rate of 0.72%, and those with a score of >4 points had a rate of 1.44%. The c-statistic for fatal bleeding was 0.775 (95% CI 0.720-0.830). The score performed better for predicting gastrointestinal (c-statistic, 0.869; 95% CI: 0.810-0.928) than intracranial (c-statistic, 0.687; 95% CI: 0.568-0.806) fatal bleeding. The score value with highest combined sensitivity and specificity was 1.75. The risk for fatal bleeding was significantly increased (odds ratio: 7.6; 95% CI 3.7-16.2) above this cut-off value. CONCLUSIONS: The accuracy of the score in this validation cohort was similar to the accuracy found in the index study. Interestingly, it performed better for predicting gastrointestinal than intracranial fatal bleeding.

Can the trabecular bone score be considered as a major clinical risk factor of osteoporotic fractures? A meta-like analysis.

To have an added value over BMD, a CRF of osteoporotic fracture must be predictable of the fracture, independent of BMD, reversible and quantifiable. Many major recognized CRF exist. Out of these factors many of them are indirect factor of bone quality. TBS predicts fracture independently of BMD as demonstrated from previous studies. The aim of the study is to verify if TBS can be considered as a major CRF of osteoporotic fracture. Existing validated datasets of Caucasian women were analyzed. These datasets stem from different studies performed by the authors of this report or provided to our group. However, the level of evidence of these studies will vary. Thus, the different datasets were weighted differently according to their design. This meta-like analysis involves more than 32000 women (≥50years) with 2000 osteoporotic fractures from two prospective studies (OFELY&MANITOBA) and 7 cross-sectional studies. Weighted relative risk (RR) for TBS was expressed for each decrease of one standard deviation as well as per tertile difference (TBS=1.300 and 1.200) and compared with those obtained for the major CRF included in FRAX®. Overall TBS RR obtained (adjusted for age) was 1.79 [95%CI-1.37-2.37]. For all women combined, RR for fracture for the lowest compared with the middle TBS tertile was 1.55[1.46-1.68] and for the lowest compared with the highest TBS tertile was 2.8[2.70-3.00]. TBS is comparable to most of the major CRF and thus could be used as one of them. Further studies have to be conducted to confirm these first findings.

Conversion of membrane-bound Fas(CD95) ligand to its soluble form is associated with downregulation of its proapoptotic activity and loss of liver toxicity.

Human Fas ligand (L) (CD95L) and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha undergo metalloproteinase-mediated proteolytic processing in their extracellular domains resulting in the release of soluble trimeric ligands (soluble [s]FasL, sTNF-alpha) which, in the case of sFasL, is thought to be implicated in diseases such as hepatitis and AIDS. Here we show that the processing of sFasL occurs between Ser126 and Leu127. The apoptotic-inducing capacity of naturally processed sFasL was reduced by &gt;1,000-fold compared with membrane-bound FasL, and injection of high doses of recombinant sFasL in mice did not induce liver failure. However, soluble FasL retained its capacity to interact with Fas, and restoration of its cytotoxic activity was achieved both in vitro and in vivo with the addition of cross-linking antibodies. Similarly, the marginal apoptotic activity of recombinant soluble TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (sTRAIL), another member of the TNF ligand family, was greatly increased upon cross-linking. These results indicate that the mere trimerization of the Fas and TRAIL receptors may not be sufficient to trigger death signals. Thus, the observation that sFasL is less cytotoxic than membrane-bound FasL may explain why in certain types of cancer, systemic tissue damage is not detected, even though the levels of circulating sFasL are high.

Cloning, Expression and Toxicity of a Mosquitocidal Toxin Gene of Bacillus thuringiensis subsp. medellin

Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) subsp. medellin (Btmed) produces parasporal crystalline inclusions which are toxic to mosquito larvae. It has been shown that the inclusions of this bacterium contain mainly proteins of 94, 68 and 28-30 kDa. EcoRI partially digested total DNA of Btmed was cloned by using the Lambda Zap II cloning kit. Recombinant plaques were screened with a mouse policlonal antibody raised against the 94 kDa crystal protein of Btmed. One of the positive plaques was selected, and by in vivo excision, a recombinant pBluescript SK(-) was obtained. The gene encoding the 94 kDa toxin of Btmed DNA was cloned in a 4.4 kb DNA fragment. Btmed DNA was then subcloned as a EcoRI/EcoRI fragment into the shuttle vector pBU4 producing the recombinant plasmid pBTM3 and used to transform by electroporation Bt subsp. israelensis (Bti) crystal negative strain 4Q2-81. Toxicity to mosquito larvae was estimated by using first instar laboratory reared Aedes aegypti, and Culex quinquefasciatus larvae challenged with whole crystals. Toxicity results indicate that the purified inclusions from the recombinant Bti strain were toxic to all mosquito species tested, although the toxicity was not as high as the one produced by the crystal of the Btmed wild type strain. Poliacrylamide gel electrophoresis indicate that the inclusions produced by the recombinant strain Bti (pBTM3) were mainly composed of the 94 kDa protein of Btmed, as it was determined by Western blot

Trabecular Bone Score Helps Classifying Women At Riskof Fracture Prospectively In The Ofely Study

Objectives: Trabecular Bone Score (TBS, Med-Imaps, France) is an index of bone microarchitecture calculated from antero-posterior spine DXA scan and reported to be associated with fracture in prior case-control studies and in a large prospective study with the Prodigy DXA device. Our aim was to assess the ability of TBS to predict incident fracture and improve the classification of fracture prospectively in the OFELY study.Materials/Methods: TBS was assessed in 564 postmenopausal women (66±8 years old) from the OFELY cohort, who had a spine DXA scan (QDR 4500A, Hologic, USA) between year 2000 and 2001. During a mean follow up of 7.8±1.3 years, 94 women sustained a fragility fracture.Results: At the time of baseline DXA scan, women with incident fracture were significantly older (70±9 vs. 65± 8 years), had a lower spine BMD (T-score: −1.9±1.2 vs. −1.3±1.3, p<0.001) and spine TBS (−3.1%, p<0.001) than women without incident fracture. After adjustment for age, BMI and the presence of prevalent fracture, the magnitude of fracture prediction was similar for spine BMD (OR=1.42 [1.11;1.82] per SD decrease [95% CI]) and TBS (OR=1.34 [1.04;1.74]) but the combination of TBS and spine BMD did not improve fracture prediction. Spine BMD and TBS were both correlated with age (respectively r=−0.17 and −0.49, p<0.001) and correlated together with 39% of TBS explained by spine BMD (r=0.63, p<0.001). When using the WHO classification, 38% of the fractures occurred in osteoporotic (fracture rate=29%), 47% in osteopenic (fracture rate=16%) and 15% in women with T-score >−1 (fracture rate=9%). By classifying our population in tertiles of TBS, we found that 47% of the fractures occurred in the lowest tertile of TBS (fracture rate=23%) and 39% of the fracture that occurred in osteopenic women were in the lowest tertile of TBS.Conclusions: Spine BMD and TBS predicted fractures equally well. The addition of TBS to spine BMD added only limited information on fracture risk prediction in our cohort when considering the all range of BMD. Nevertheless combining the osteopenic T-score and the lowest TBS helped defining a subset of osteopenic women at higher risk of fracture.Disclosure of Interest: None declared.

The effects of nutrition, puberty and dancing on bone density in adolescent ballet dancers.

Ballet dancers have on average a low bone mineral content (BMC), with elevated fracture-risk, low body mass index (BMI) for age (body mass index, kg/m2), low energy intake, and delayed puberty. This study aims at a better understanding of the interactions of these factors, especially with regard to nutrition. During a competition for pre-professional dancers we examined 127 female participants (60 Asians, 67 Caucasians). They averaged 16.7 years of age, started dancing at 5.8 years, and danced 22 hours/week. Assessments were made for BMI, BMC (DXA), and bone mineral apparent density (BMAD) at the lumbar spine and femoral neck, pubertal stage (Tanner score), and nutritional status (EAT-40 questionnaire and a qualitative three-day dietary record). BMI for age was found to be normal in only 42.5% of the dancers, while 15.7% had a more or less severe degree of thinness (12.6% Grade2 and 3.1% Grade 3 thinness). Menarche was late (13.9 years, range 11 to 16.8 years). Food intake, evaluated by number of consumed food portions, was below the recommendations for a normally active population in all food groups except animal proteins, where the intake was more than twice the recommended amount. In this population, with low BMI and intense exercise, BMC was low and associated with nutritional factors; dairy products had a positive and non-dairy proteins a negative influence. A positive correlation between BMAD and years since menarche confirmed the importance of exposure to estrogens and the negative impact of delayed puberty. Because of this and the probable negative influence of a high intake of non-dairy proteins, such as meat, fish, and eggs, and the positive association with a high dairy intake, ballet schools should promote balanced diets and normal weight and should recognize and help dancers avoid eating disorders and delayed puberty caused by extensive dancing and inadequate nutrition.

Glucocorticoids induce retinal toxicity through mechanisms mainly associated with paraptosis.

PURPOSE: Corticosteroids have recorded beneficial clinical effects and are widely used in medicine. In ophthalmology, besides their treatment benefits, side effects, including ocular toxicity have been observed especially when intraocular delivery is used. The mechanism of these toxic events remains, however, poorly understood. In our present study, we investigated the mechanisms and potential pathways of corticosteroid-induced retinal cell death. METHODS: Rats were sacrificed 24 h and 8 days after an intravitreous injection of 1 microl (40 microg) of Kenacort Retard. The eyes were processed for ultra structure analysis and detection of activated caspase-3, cytochrome-C, apoptosis-inducing factor (AIF), LEI-L-Dnase II, terminal transferase dUTP nick end labeling (TUNEL), and microtubule-associated protein 1-light chain 3 (MAP-LC3). In vitro, rat retinal pigment epithelial cells (RPE), retinal Müller glial cells (RMG) and human ARPE-19 cells were treated with triamcinolone acetonide (TA) or other glucocorticoids. Cell viability was quantified by 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5 phenyltetrazolium bromide test (MTT) assay and cell counts. Nuclei staining, TUNEL assay, annexin-V binding, activated caspase-3 and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) production characterized cell death. Localization of cytochrome-C, AIF, LEI-and L-Dnase II, and staining with MAP-LC3 or monodansylcadaverine were also carried out. Finally, ARPE-19 cells transfected with AIP-1/Alix were exposed to TA. RESULTS: In vitro incubation of retinal cell in the presence of corticosteroids induced a specific and dose-dependent reduction of cell viability. These toxic events were not associated with the anti-inflammatory activity of these compounds but depended on the hydro solubility of their formulation. Before cell death, extensive cytoplasmic vacuolization was observed in the retinal pigment epithelial (RPE) cells in vivo and in vitro. The cells however, did not show known caspase-dependent or caspase-independent apoptotic reactions. These intracellular vacuoles were negative for MAP-LC3 but some stained positive for monodansylcadaverine. Furthermore, over expression of AIP-1/Alix inhibited RPE cell death. CONCLUSIONS: These observations suggest that corticosteroid-induced retinal cell death may be carried out mainly through a paraptosis pathway.

Outcome of long-axis percutaneous sacroplasty as first-line treatment of sacral insufficiency fractures : P219

Purpose: To assess the clinical outcome of patients who were subjected to long-axis sacroplasty as first line treatment for sacral insufficiency fractures. Methods and materials: Nineteen patients with unilateral (n = 3) or bilateral (n = 16) sacral fractures were involved. Under local anaesthesia, each patient was subjected to CT guided sacroplasty using the long-axis approach through a single entry point. An average of 6 ml of PMMA was delivered along the path of each sacral fracture. For each individual patient, the VAS pain score before sacroplasty and at 1, 4, 24, and 48 weeks after the procedure was obtained. Furthermore, the use of analgesics (narcotic/non-narcotic) along with the evolution of post interventional patient mobility before and after sacroplasty was also recorded. Results: The mean pre-procedure VAS score was 8 ± 1.9. This has rapidly declined in the first week after the procedure (mean 4 ± 1.5) followed by gradual decrease along the rest of follow-up period at 4 weeks (mean 3 ± 1.2), 24 weeks (mean 2 ± 1.3), and 48 weeks (mean 1.3 ± 1.4), respectively. Eleven (58%) patients were under narcotic analgesia before sacroplasty, whereas, 8 (42%) patients were using non-narcotics. Corresponding values after the procedure were 2/19 (10%) (narcotic) and 10/19 53% (non-narcotic). Seven (37%) patients did not address post-procedure analgesic use. The evolution of post interventional mobility was favourable in the study group since they revealed a significant improvement in their mobility point scale. Conclusion: Long-axis percutaneous sacroplasty is a suitable minimally invasive treatment option for patients who present with sacral insufficiency fractures. Future studies with larger patient number are warranted to grasp any potential limitations of this therapeutic approach.

Facteurs Influençant la Progression du Score EDSS dans la Sclérose en Plaques Récurrente-Rémittente

Introduction : la Sclérose en plaques (SEP) est le prototype de désordre auto-immun du système nerveux central. Avec environ 110 malades par 100'000 habitants, la Suisse est considérée un pays à haute prévalence. Chez environ 80% des patients, la maladie débute par la forme récurrente- rémittente (RR), où des poussées aiguës s'intercalent avec des périodes de rémission. Cette phase se conclut dans son évolution naturelle généralement en une phase secondairement progressive, pendant laquelle le déficit progresse en l'absence de poussée. Sur le plan physiopathologique, deux phénomènes interagissent : l'atteinte inflammatoire démyélinisante et l'atteinte neurodégénerative. La première est { l'origine des poussées aiguës, la deuxième se manifeste cliniquement par la progression irréversible du déficit neurologique. En Suisse les immunomodulateurs ont été utilisés comme thérapies de fond pour la SEP à partir des années 1995. Leur effet sur le taux de poussées a été largement démontré, tandis que leur efficacité sur l'évolution de la maladie à long terme reste ouverte. Le moyen le plus répandu pour quantifier le niveau du handicap neurologique est la Kurtzke Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). Cette échelle évalue les troubles neurologiques en les classifiant de 0 (examen normal) à 10 (décès) avec des marches de demi-points. Notre recherche à voulu identifier des facteurs cliniques précoces { valeur prédictif sur l'évolution du déficit neurologique permanent, ainsi qu'analyser le moment d'introduction du traitement pour extraire des informations utiles { la décision thérapeutique. Méthodes : Exploitation de la base de données iMed-CHUV comptant 1150 patients SEP (dont 622 SEP RR) pour analyser rétrospectivement, dans la SEP RR, l'influence de différentes variables cliniques précoces (taux de poussées pendant les premières deux années de maladie, intervalle entre les deux premières poussées, sévérité et site anatomique de la première poussée, déficit résiduel après la première poussée) et de deux caractéristiques liées { l'instauration du traitement immunosuppresseur de fond (âge et délai d'introduction) sur l'évolution du déficit neurologique vers un score EDSS ≥4.0. Les variables ont été testées avec la méthode d'estimation de taux de survie Kaplan-Meier. Résultats: 349 patients avec SEP RR possédaient les critères nécessaires pour faire partie de l'analyse, le suivi moyen étant de 8.26 ans (SD 4.77). Un taux de poussées élevé pendant les premiers 2 ans (>1 vs ≤1) et un long intervalle entre les 2 premiers épisodes (>36 vs >12-36 vs ≤12) étaient significativement associés au risque de progression du déficit neurologique vers un score EDSS de 4.0 ou plus (log Rank P=0.016 et P=0.008 respectivement). Par contre ni le site anatomique de la première poussée ni l'âge d'introduction du traitement immunomodulateur n'avaient d'influence significative sur la progression du déficit neurologique (log rank P=0.370 et P=0.945 respectivement). Etonnamment une introduction rapide du traitement était associée à une plus forte progression du déficit neurologique (log rank P=0.032), montrant qu'une partie des patients a une évolution bénigne même en l'absence de traitement. Conclusions : L'activité inflammatoire précoce, dont le niveau peut être estimé par indices précoces comme le taux de poussées et l'intervalle entre les deux premières poussées, mais non le site de primo-manifestation prédit la progression ultérieure du déficit neurologique. Ces indices doivent être utilisés en combinaison avec les informations fournies par l'IRM pour l'individuation et le traitement précoce des patients à risque, indépendamment de leur âge. En raison des effets indésirables et des coûts élevés, les thérapies doivent cibler de façon spécifique les classes à risque, et épargner les patients avec évolution lente.