Verification of European subseasonal wind speed forecasts

Analysis of the forecasts and hindcasts from the ECMWF 32-day forecast model reveals that there is statistically significant skill in predicting weekly mean wind speeds over areas of Europe at lead times of at least 14–20 days. Previous research on wind speed predictability has focused on the short- to medium-range time scales, typically finding that forecasts lose all skill by the later part of the medium-range forecast. To the authors’ knowledge, this research is the first to look beyond the medium-range time scale by taking weekly mean wind speeds, instead of averages at hourly or daily resolution, for the ECMWF monthly forecasting system. It is shown that the operational forecasts have high levels of correlation (~0.6) between the forecasts and observations over the winters of 2008–12 for some areas of Europe. Hindcasts covering 20 winters show a more modest level of correlation but are still skillful. Additional analysis examines the probabilistic skill for the United Kingdom with the application of wind power forecasting in mind. It is also shown that there is forecast “value” for end users (operating in a simple cost/loss ratio decision-making framework). End users that are sensitive to winter wind speed variability over the United Kingdom, Germany, and some other areas of Europe should therefore consider forecasts beyond the medium-range time scale as it is clear there is useful information contained within the forecast.

Centennial changes in the solar wind speed and in the open solar flux

We use combinations of geomagnetic indices, based on both variation range and hourly means, to derive the solar wind flow speed, the interplanetary magnetic field strength at 1 AU and the total open solar flux between 1895 and the present. We analyze the effects of the regression procedure and geomagnetic indices used by adopting four analysis methods. These give a mean interplanetary magnetic field strength increase of 45.1 ± 4.5% between 1903 and 1956, associated with a 14.4 ± 0.7% rise in the solar wind speed. We use averaging timescales of 1 and 2 days to allow for the difference between the magnetic fluxes threading the coronal source surface and the heliocentric sphere at 1 AU. The largest uncertainties originate from the choice of regression procedure: the average of all eight estimates of the rise in open solar flux is 73.0 ± 5.0%, but the best procedure, giving the narrowest and most symmetric distribution of fit residuals, yields 87.3 ± 3.9%.

Short-term variability of solar wind number density, speed and dynamic pressure as a function of the interplanetary magnetic field components: A survey over two solar cycles

The variability of hourly values of solar wind number density, number density variation, speed, speed variation and dynamic pressure with IMF Bz and magnitude |B| has been examined for the period 1965–1986. We wish to draw attention to a strong correlation in number density and number density fluctuation with IMF Bz characterised by a symmetric increasing trend in these quantities away from Bz = 0 nT. The fluctuation level in solar wind speed is found to be relatively independent of Bz. We infer that number density and number density variability dominate in controlling solar wind dynamic pressure and dynamic pressure variability. It is also found that dynamic pressure is correlated with each component of IMF and that there is evidence of morphological differences between the variation with each component. Finally, we examine the variation of number density, speed, dynamic pressure and fluctuation level in number density and speed with IMF magnitude |B|. Again we find that number density variation dominates over solar wind speed in controlling dynamic pressure.

Non-thermal plasma observations using EISCAT: Aspect angle dependence

Recent observations with the EISCAT incoherent scatter radar have shown large rises in dayside, auroral plasma velocities (>2 km s^{−1}) over a wide range of latitudes and lasting about an hour. These are larger than the neutral thermal speed, and allow, for the first time, observations of a non-thermal plasma over a range of observing angles, revealing a clear angular dependence. The observed ion temperature anisotropy, deduced by assuming a Maxwellian line-of-sight ion velocity distribution, is at least 1.75, which exceeds the theoretical value for a bi-Maxwellian based on a realistic ion-neutral collision model. The aspect angle dependence of the signal spectra also indicates non-Maxwellian plasma.

Synergistic angular and spectral estimation of aerosol properties using CHRIS/PROBA-1 and simulated Sentinel-3 data

We develop a method to derive aerosol properties over land surfaces using combined spectral and angular information, such as available from ESA Sentinel-3 mission, to be launched in 2015. A method of estimating aerosol optical depth (AOD) using only angular retrieval has previously been demonstrated on data from the ENVISAT and PROBA-1 satellite instruments, and is extended here to the synergistic spectral and angular sampling of Sentinel-3. The method aims to improve the estimation of AOD, and to explore the estimation of fine mode fraction (FMF) and single scattering albedo (SSA) over land surfaces by inversion of a coupled surface/atmosphere radiative transfer model. The surface model includes a general physical model of angular and spectral surface reflectance. An iterative process is used to determine the optimum value of the aerosol properties providing the best fit of the corrected reflectance values to the physical model. The method is tested using hyperspectral, multi-angle Compact High Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (CHRIS) images. The values obtained from these CHRIS observations are validated using ground-based sun photometer measurements. Results from 22 image sets using the synergistic retrieval and improved aerosol models show an RMSE of 0.06 in AOD, reduced to 0.03 over vegetated targets.

Processing speed, executive function, and age differences in remembering and knowing

A group of young (n=52, M=23.27 years) and old (n=52, M=68.62 years) adults studied two lists of semantically unrelated nouns. For one list a time of 2 s was allowed for encoding, and for the other, 5 s. A recognition test followed where participants classified their responses according to Gardiner’s (1988) remember–know procedure. Age differences for remembering and knowing were minimal in the faster 2-s encoding condition. However, in the longer 5-s encoding condition, younger persons produced significantly more remember responses, and older adults a greater number of know responses. This dissociation suggests that in the longer encoding condition, younger adults utilized a greater level of elaborative rehearsal governed by executive processes, whereas older persons employed maintenance rehearsal involving short-term memory. Statistical control procedures, however, found that independent measures of processing speed accounted for age differences in remembering and knowing and that independent measures of executive control had little influence. The findings are discussed in the light of contrasting theoretical accounts of recollective experience in old age.

On the speed of the eddy-driven jet and the width of the Hadley cell in the Southern Hemisphere

A strong correlation between the speed of the eddy-driven jet and the width of the Hadley cell is found to exist in the Southern Hemisphere, both in reanalysis data and in twenty-first-century integrations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report multimodel archive. Analysis of the space–time spectra of eddy momentum flux reveals that variations in eddy-driven jet speed are related to changes in the mean phase speed of midlatitude eddies. An increase in eddy phase speeds induces a poleward shift of the critical latitudes and a poleward expansion of the region of subtropical wave breaking. The associated changes in eddy momentum flux convergence are balanced by anomalous meridional winds consistent with a wider Hadley cell. At the same time, faster eddies are also associated with a strengthened poleward eddy momentum flux, sustaining a stronger westerly jet in midlatitudes. The proposed mechanism is consistent with the seasonal dependence of the interannual variability of the Hadley cell width and appears to explain at least part of the projected twenty-first-century trends.

Hydrodynamics with spin angular momentum from systematic coarse graining: a tutorial example

The derivation of time evolution equations for slow collective variables starting from a micro- scopic model system is demonstrated for the tutorial example of the classical, two-dimensional XY model. Projection operator techniques are used within a nonequilibrium thermodynamics framework together with molecular simulations in order to establish the building blocks of the hydrodynamics equations: Poisson brackets that determine the deterministic drift, the driving forces from the macroscopic free energy and the friction matrix. The approach is rather general and can be applied for deriving the equations of slow variables for a broad variety of systems.

Cloud information content analysis of multi-angular measurements in the oxygen A-band: application to 3MI and MSPI

The vertical distribution of cloud cover has a significant impact on a large number of meteorological and climatic processes. Cloud top altitude and cloud geometrical thickness are then essential. Previous studies established the possibility of retrieving those parameters from multi-angular oxygen A-band measurements. Here we perform a study and comparison of the performances of future instruments. The 3MI (Multi-angle, Multi-channel and Multi-polarization Imager) instrument developed by EUMETSAT, which is an extension of the POLDER/PARASOL instrument, and MSPI (Multi-angles Spectro-Polarimetric Imager) develoloped by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory will measure total and polarized light reflected by the Earth's atmosphere–surface system in several spectral bands (from UV to SWIR) and several viewing geometries. Those instruments should provide opportunities to observe the links between the cloud structures and the anisotropy of the reflected solar radiation into space. Specific algorithms will need be developed in order to take advantage of the new capabilities of this instrument. However, prior to this effort, we need to understand, through a theoretical Shannon information content analysis, the limits and advantages of these new instruments for retrieving liquid and ice cloud properties, and especially, in this study, the amount of information coming from the A-Band channel on the cloud top altitude (CTOP) and geometrical thickness (CGT). We compare the information content of 3MI A-Band in two configurations and that of MSPI. Quantitative information content estimates show that the retrieval of CTOP with a high accuracy is possible in almost all cases investigated. The retrieval of CGT seems less easy but possible for optically thick clouds above a black surface, at least when CGT > 1–2 km.

Decadal predictability of regional scale wind speed and wind energy potentials over Central Europe

Decadal predictions on timescales from one year to one decade are gaining importance since this time frame falls within the planning horizon of politics, economy and society. The present study examines the decadal predictability of regional wind speed and wind energy potentials in three generations of the MiKlip (‘Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen’) decadal prediction system. The system is based on the global Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the three generations differ primarily in the ocean initialisation. Ensembles of uninitialised historical and yearly initialised hindcast experiments are used to assess the forecast skill for 10 m wind speeds and wind energy output (Eout) over Central Europe with lead times from one year to one decade. With this aim, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is used for the regionalisation. Its added value is evaluated by comparison of skill scores for MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and SDD-simulated regional wind speeds. All three MPI-ESM ensemble generations show some forecast skill for annual mean wind speed and Eout over Central Europe on yearly and multi-yearly time scales. This forecast skill is mostly limited to the first years after initialisation. Differences between the three ensemble generations are generally small. The regionalisation preserves and sometimes increases the forecast skills of the global runs but results depend on lead time and ensemble generation. Moreover, regionalisation often improves the ensemble spread. Seasonal Eout skills are generally lower than for annual means. Skill scores are lowest during summer and persist longest in autumn. A large-scale westerly weather type with strong pressure gradients over Central Europe is identified as potential source of the skill for wind energy potentials, showing a similar forecast skill and a high correlation with Eout anomalies. These results are promising towards the establishment of a decadal prediction system for wind energy applications over Central Europe.

3-D volume rendering maxillofacial analysis of angular measurements by multislice CT

Objective. This study was designed to determine the precision and accuracy of angular measurements using three-dimensional computed tomography (3D-CT) volume rendering by computer systems. Study design. The study population consisted of 28 dried skulls that were scanned with a 64-row multislice CT, and 3D-CT images were generated. Angular measurements, (n = 6) based upon conventional craniometric anatomical landmarks (n = 9), were identified independently in 3D-CT images by 2 radiologists, twice each, and were then performed by 3D-CT imaging. Subsequently, physical measurements were made by a third examiner using a Beyond Crysta-C9168 series 900 device. Results. The results demonstrated no statistically significant difference between interexaminer and intraexaminer analysis. The mean difference between the physical and 3-D-based angular measurements was -1.18% and -0.89%, respectively, for both examiners, demonstrating high accuracy. Conclusion. Maxillofacial analysis of angular measurements using 3D-CT volume rendering by 64-row multislice CT is established and can be used for orthodontic and dentofacial orthopedic applications.

Influence of the halo upon angular distributions for elastic scattering and breakup

The angular distributions for elastic scattering and breakup of halo nuclei are analysed using a near-side/far-side decomposition within the framework of the dynamical eikonal approximation. This analysis is performed for (11)Be impinging on Pb at 69 MeV/nucleon. These distributions exhibit very similar features. In particular they are both near-side dominated, as expected from Coulomb-dominated reactions. The general shape of these distributions is sensitive mostly to the projectile-target interactions, but is also affected by the extension of the halo. This suggests the elastic scattering not to be affected by a loss of flux towards the breakup channel. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Electric field gradients in (111)In-doped (Hf/Zr)(3)Al(2) and (Hf/Zr)(4)Al(3) mixed compounds: ab initio calculations, perturbed angular correlation measurements and site preference

The quadrupolar hyperfine interactions of in-diffused (111)In -> (111)Cd probes in polycrystalline isostructural Zr(4)Al(3) and Hf(4)Al(3) samples containing small admixtures of the phases (Zr/Hf)(3)Al(2) were investigated. A strong preference of (111)In solutes for the contaminant (Zr/Hf)(3)Al(2) minority phases was observed. Detailed calculations of the electric field gradient (EFG) at the Cd nucleus using the full-potential augmented plane wave + local orbital formalism allowed us to assign the observed EFG fractions to the various lattice sites in the (Zr/Hf)(3)Al(2) compounds and to understand the preferential site occupation of the minority phases by the (111)In atoms. The effects of the size of the supercell and relaxation around the oversized In and Cd probe atoms were investigated in detail.

Challenging measurement of the (16)O+(27)Al elastic and inelastic angular distributions up to large angles

The (16)O+(27)Al elastic and inelastic angular distributions have been measured in a broad angular range (13 degrees < theta(lab) < 52 degrees) at about 100 MeV incident energy. The use of the MAGNEX large acceptance magnetic spectrometer and of the ray-reconstruction analysis technique has been crucial in order to provide, in the same experiment, high-resolution energy spectra and cross-section measurements distributed over more than seven orders of magnitude down to hundreds of nb/sr. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Classical strings in AdS(4) x CP(3) with three angular momenta

In this paper, rotating strings in three directions of AdS(4) x CP(3) geometry are studied; its divergent energy limit, and conserved charges are also determined. An interpretation of these configurations as either giant magnons or spiky strings is discussed.