Nonlinear mixture autoregressive model: economic applications

The aim of this dissertation is to model economic variables by a mixture autoregressive (MAR) model. The MAR model is a generalization of linear autoregressive (AR) model. The MAR -model consists of K linear autoregressive components. At any given point of time one of these autoregressive components is randomly selected to generate a new observation for the time series. The mixture probability can be constant over time or a direct function of a some observable variable. Many economic time series contain properties which cannot be described by linear and stationary time series models. A nonlinear autoregressive model such as MAR model can a plausible alternative in the case of these time series. In this dissertation the MAR model is used to model stock market bubbles and a relationship between inflation and the interest rate. In the case of the inflation rate we arrived at the MAR model where inflation process is less mean reverting in the case of high inflation than in the case of normal inflation. The interest rate move one-for-one with expected inflation. We use the data from the Livingston survey as a proxy for inflation expectations. We have found that survey inflation expectations are not perfectly rational. According to our results information stickiness play an important role in the expectation formation. We also found that survey participants have a tendency to underestimate inflation. A MAR model has also used to model stock market bubbles and crashes. This model has two regimes: the bubble regime and the error correction regime. In the error correction regime price depends on a fundamental factor, the price-dividend ratio, and in the bubble regime, price is independent of fundamentals. In this model a stock market crash is usually caused by a regime switch from a bubble regime to an error-correction regime. According to our empirical results bubbles are related to a low inflation. Our model also imply that bubbles have influences investment return distribution in both short and long run.

Economic evaluation of forest policy programs.

XVIII IUFRO World Congress, Ljubljana 1986.

Influence of subcontracting on innovation and economic performance of SMEs in Indian automobile industry

Trans-national corporations (TNCs) expanding their production bases to developing countries having better conditions of manufacturing and domestic markets provide increasing opportunities for local small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to have subcontracting relationships with these TNCs Even though some theoretical and a few empirical studies throw light on the nature of assistance provided by TNCs to local SMEs through subcontracting relationships none of the studies so far quantitatively analysed the role of this assistance on the innovative performance of SMEs leading to better economic performance This paper probes the extent and diversity of assistance received by SMEs from a TNC through subcontracting and its influence on technological innovations and economic performance of SMEs in the Indian automobile industry Indian SMEs were able to receive mainly product related and purchase process assistance thereby implying that subcontracting is largely confined to purchase-supply relationships However assistance received through subcontracting is beneficial as It promoted technological innovations of SMEs the higher the degree of assistance the higher the level of innovations carried out by these SMEs which in turn facilitated their economic performance Thus this paper substantiates in the Indian context that subcontracting relationship with a TNC can be an important source of technological innovations and enhanced economic performance for SMEs (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved

Income inequality in the process of economic development : An empirical approach

This thesis studies the effect of income inequality on economic growth. This is done by analyzing panel data from several countries with both short and long time dimensions of the data. Two of the chapters study the direct effect of inequality on growth, and one chapter also looks at the possible indirect effect of inequality on growth by assessing the effect of inequality on savings. In Chapter two, the effect of inequality on growth is studied by using a panel of 70 countries and a new EHII2008 inequality measure. Chapter contributes on two problems that panel econometric studies on the economic effect of inequality have recently encountered: the comparability problem associated with the commonly used Deininger and Squire s Gini index, and the problem relating to the estimation of group-related elasticities in panel data. In this study, a simple way to 'bypass' vagueness related to the use of parametric methods to estimate group-related parameters is presented. The idea is to estimate the group-related elasticities implicitly using a set of group-related instrumental variables. The estimation results with new data and method indicate that the relationship between income inequality and growth is likely to be non-linear. Chapter three incorporates the EHII2.1 inequality measure and a panel with annual time series observations from 38 countries to test the existence of long-run equilibrium relation(s) between inequality and the level of GDP. Panel unit root tests indicate that both the logarithmic EHII2.1 inequality measure and the logarithmic GDP per capita series are I(1) nonstationary processes. They are also found to be cointegrated of order one, which implies that there is a long-run equilibrium relation between them. The long-run growth elasticity of inequality is found to be negative in the middle-income and rich economies, but the results for poor economies are inconclusive. In the fourth Chapter, macroeconomic data on nine developed economies spanning across four decades starting from the year 1960 is used to study the effect of the changes in the top income share to national and private savings. The income share of the top 1 % of population is used as proxy for the distribution of income. The effect of inequality on private savings is found to be positive in the Nordic and Central-European countries, but for the Anglo-Saxon countries the direction of the effect (positive vs. negative) remains somewhat ambiguous. Inequality is found to have an effect national savings only in the Nordic countries, where it is positive.

Macro-economic analysis of forestry options on carbon sequestration in India

The forestry sector provides a number of climate change mitigation options. Apart from this ecological benefit, it has significant social and economic relevance. Implementation of forestry options requires large investments and sustained long-term planning. Thus there is a need for a detailed analysis of forestry options to understand their implications on stock and flow of carbon, required investments, value of forest wealth, contribution to GNP and livelihood, demand management, employment and foreign trade. There is a need to evaluate the additional spending on forestry by analysing the environmental (particularly carbon abatement), social and economic benefits. The biomass needs for India are expected to increase by two to three times by 2020. Depending upon the forest types, ownership patterns and land use patterns, feasible forestry options are identified. It is found among many supply options to be feasible to meet the 'demand based needs' with a mix of management options, species choices and organisational set up. A comparative static framework is used to analyze the macro-economic impacts. Forestry accounts for 1.84% of GNP in India. It is characterized by significant forward industrial linkages and least backward linkage. Forestry generates about 36 million person years of employment annually. India imports Rs. 15 billion worth of forest based materials annually. Implementation of the demand based forestry options can lead to a number of ecological, economic and institutional changes. The notable ones are: enhancement of C stock from 9578 to 17 094 Mt and a net annual C-sequestration from 73 to 149 Mt after accounting for all emissions; a trebling of the output of forestry sector from Rs. 49 billion to Rs. 146 billion annually; an increase in GDP contribution of forestry from Rs. 32 billion to Rs. 105 billion over a period of 35 years; an increase in annual employment level by 23 million person years, emergence of forestry as a net contributor of foreign exchange through trading of forestry products; and an increase in economic value of forest capital stock by Rs. 7260 billion with a cost benefit analysis showing forestry as a profitable option. Implementation of forestry options calls for an understanding of current forest policies and barriers which are analyzed and a number of policy options are suggested. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.

Ecological and Socio Economic Assesment of Varthur Wetlnd, Bengaluru (India)

Wetlands are the most productive ecosystems, recognized globally for its vital role in sustaining a wide array of biodiversity and provide goods and services. However despite their important role in maintaining the ecology and economy, wetlands in India are endangered by inattention and lack of appreciation for their role. Increased anthropogenic activities such as intense agriculture practices, indiscriminate disposal of industrial effluents and sewage wastes have altered the physical, chemical as well as biological integrity of the ecosystem. This has resulted in the ecological degradation, which is evident from the current ecosystem valuation of Varthur wetland. Global valuation of coastal wetland ecosystem shows a total of 14,785/ha US$ annual economic value. An earlier study of relatively pristine wetland in Bangalore shows the value of Rs. 10,435/ha/day while the polluted wetland shows the value of Rs.20/ha/day. In contrast to this, Varthur, a sewage fed wetland has a value of Rs.118.9/ha/day. The pollutants and subsequent contamination of the wetland has telling effects such as disappearance of native species, dominance of invasive exotic species (such as African catfish), in addition to profuse breeding of disease vectors and pathogens. Water quality analysis revealed of high phosphates (4.22-5.76 ppm) level in addition to the enhanced BOD (119-140 ppm) and decreased DO (0-1.06 ppm). The amplified decline of ecosystem goods and services with degradation of water quality necessitates the implementation of sustainable management strategies to recover the lost wetland benefits.

Ecological and socio-economic assessment of Varthur wetland, Bengaluru (India)

Wetlands are the most productive ecosystems, recognized globally for its vital role in sustaining a wide array of biodiversity and provide goods and services. However despite their important role in maintaining the ecology and economy, wetlands in India are endangered by inattention and lack of appreciation for their role. Increased anthropogenic activities such as intense agriculture practices, indiscriminate disposal of industrial effluents and sewage wastes have altered the physical, chemical as well as biological integrity of the ecosystem. This has resulted in the ecological degradation, which is evident from the current ecosystem valuation of Varthur wetland. Global valuation of coastal wetland ecosystem shows a total of 14,785/ha US$ annual economic value. An earlier study of relatively pristine wetland in Bangalore shows the value of Rs. 10,435/ha/day while the polluted wetland shows the value of Rs.20/ha/day. In contrast to this, Varthur, a sewage fed wetland has a value of Rs.118.9/ha/day. The pollutants and subsequent contamination of the wetland has telling effects such as disappearance of native species, dominance of invasive exotic species (such as African catfish), in addition to profuse breeding of disease vectors and pathogens. Water quality analysis revealed of high phosphates (4.22-5.76 ppm) level in addition to the enhanced BOD (119-140 ppm) and decreased DO (0-1.06 ppm). The amplified decline of ecosystem goods and services with degradation of water quality necessitates the implementation of sustainable management strategies to recover the lost wetland benefits.