An experimental analysis of information acquisition in prediction markets

We study which factors in terms of trading environment and trader characteristics determine individual information acquisition in experimental asset markets. Traders with larger endowments, existing inconclusive information, lower risk aversion, and less experience in financial markets tend to acquire more information. Overall, we find that traders overacquire information, so that informed traders on average obtain negative profits net of information costs. Information acquisition and the associated losses do not diminish over time. This overacquisition phenomenon is inconsistent with predictions of rational expectations equilibrium, and we argue it resembles the overdissipation results from the contest literature. We find that more acquired information in the market leads to smaller differences between fundamental asset values and prices. Thus, the overacquisition phenomenon is a novel explanation for the high forecasting accuracy of prediction markets.

A fuzzy logic based dynamic wave model inversion algorithm for canal regulation

A fuzzy logic based centralized control algorithm for irrigation canals is presented. Purpose of the algorithm is to control downstream discharge and water level of pools in the canal, by adjusting discharge release from the upstream end and gates settings. The algorithm is based on the dynamic wave model (Saint-Venant equations) inversion in space, wherein the momentum equation is replaced by a fuzzy rule based model, while retaining the continuity equation in its complete form. The fuzzy rule based model is developed on fuzzification of a new mathematical model for wave velocity, the derivational details of which are given. The advantages of the fuzzy control algorithm, over other conventional control algorithms, are described. It is transparent and intuitive, and no linearizations of the governing equations are involved. Timing of the algorithm and method of computation are explained. It is shown that the tuning is easy and the computations are straightforward. The algorithm provides stable, realistic and robust outputs. The disadvantage of the algorithm is reduced precision in its outputs due to the approximation inherent in the fuzzy logic. Feed back control logic is adopted to eliminate error caused by the system disturbances as well as error caused by the reduced precision in the outputs. The algorithm is tested by applying it to water level control problem in a fictitious canal with a single pool and also in a real canal with a series of pools. It is found that results obtained from the algorithm are comparable to those obtained from conventional control algorithms.

NIR model development and robustness in prediction of melon fruit total soluble solids

Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) can be used for the on-line, non-invasive assessment of fruit for eating quality attributes such as total soluble solids (TSS). The robustness of multivariate calibration models, based on NIRS in a partial transmittance optical geometry, for the assessment of TSS of intact rockmelons (Cucumis melo) was assessed. The mesocarp TSS was highest around the fruit equator and increased towards the seed cavity. Inner mesocarp TSS levels decreased towards both the proximal and distal ends of the fruit, but more so towards the proximal end. The equatorial region of the fruit was chosen as representative of the fruit for near infrared assessment of TSS. The spectral window for model development was optimised at 695-1045 nm, and the data pre-treatment procedure was optimised to second-derivative absorbance without scatter correction. The 'global' modified partial least squares (MPLS) regression modelling procedure of WINISI (ver. 1.04) was found to be superior with respect to root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) and bias for model predictions of TSS across seasons, compared with the 'local' MPLS regression procedure. Updating of the model with samples selected randomly from the independent validation population demonstrated improvement in both RMSEP and bias with addition of approximately 15 samples.

Combining propensity and influence models for product adoption prediction

This paper studies the problem of selecting users in an online social network for targeted advertising so as to maximize the adoption of a given product. In previous work, two families of models have been considered to address this problem: direct targeting and network-based targeting. The former approach targets users with the highest propensity to adopt the product, while the latter approach targets users with the highest influence potential – that is users whose adoption is most likely to be followed by subsequent adoptions by peers. This paper proposes a hybrid approach that combines a notion of propensity and a notion of influence into a single utility function. We show that targeting a fixed number of high-utility users results in more adoptions than targeting either highly influential users or users with high propensity.

Effect of wave parameters on flood wave subsidence

A detailed analy~is on the propagation of a sinusoidal flood wave in a wide prismatic open channel b.as hen made by numc? ii.~ll~integrating We govemins nondimenional equations of unsteady flow in an open chamei. EmpE:dsis has been laid on the effect of wave parmefen on th propagation of 6.8 sinusoidal wave. Results show that the amount of subsidence is more in the case of small wave anplltude and wave duration cases. Further, wave duration has been noticed to have a relatively Vier influence on subsidence than wave amplitude. The speed at which the peak of the wave moves is observed to be a function of only the wave amplitude.

Generalized pencils of rays in statistical wave optics

The recently introduced generalized pencil of Sudarshan which gives an exact ray picture of wave optics is analysed in some situations of interest to wave optics. A relationship between ray dispersion and statistical inhomogeneity of the field is obtained. A paraxial approximation which preserves the rectilinear propagation character of the generalized pencils is presented. Under this approximation the pencils can be computed directly from the field conditions on a plane, without the necessity to compute the cross-spectral density function in the entire space as an intermediate quantity. The paraxial results are illustrated with examples. The pencils are shown to exhibit an interesting scaling behaviour in the far-zone. This scaling leads to a natural generalization of the Fraunhofer range criterion and of the classical van Cittert-Zernike theorem to planar sources of arbitrary state of coherence. The recently derived results of radiometry with partially coherent sources are shown to be simple consequences of this scaling.

Maize kernel hardness classification by near infrared (NIR) hyperspectral imaging and multivariate data analysis.

The use of near infrared (NIR) hyperspectral imaging and hyperspectral image analysis for distinguishing between hard, intermediate and soft maize kernels from inbred lines was evaluated. NIR hyperspectral images of two sets (12 and 24 kernels) of whole maize kernels were acquired using a Spectral Dimensions MatrixNIR camera with a spectral range of 960-1662 nm and a sisuChema SWIR (short wave infrared) hyperspectral pushbroom imaging system with a spectral range of 1000-2498 nm. Exploratory principal component analysis (PCA) was used on absorbance images to remove background, bad pixels and shading. On the cleaned images. PCA could be used effectively to find histological classes including glassy (hard) and floury (soft) endosperm. PCA illustrated a distinct difference between glassy and floury endosperm along principal component (PC) three on the MatrixNIR and PC two on the sisuChema with two distinguishable clusters. Subsequently partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) was applied to build a classification model. The PLS-DA model from the MatrixNIR image (12 kernels) resulted in root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) value of 0.18. This was repeated on the MatrixNIR image of the 24 kernels which resulted in RMSEP of 0.18. The sisuChema image yielded RMSEP value of 0.29. The reproducible results obtained with the different data sets indicate that the method proposed in this paper has a real potential for future classification uses.

New approach to improved detection and tracking performance in track-while-scan radars. Part 3: Performance prediction, optimisation and testing

The paper presents, in three parts, a new approach to improve the detection and tracking performance of a track-while-scan radar. Part 1 presents a review of the current status of the subject. Part 2 details the new approach. It shows how a priori information provided by the tracker can be used to improve detection. It also presents a new multitarget tracking algorithm. In the present Part, analytical derivations are presented for assessing, a priori, the performance of the TWS radar system. True track initiation, false track initiation, true track continuation and false track deletion characteristics have been studied. It indicates how the various thresholds can be chosen by the designer to optimise performance. Simulation results are also presented.

Non-destructive prediction of 'Hass' avocado dry matter via FT-NIR spectroscopy.

BACKGROUND: The inability to consistently guarantee internal quality of horticulture produce is of major importance to the primary producer, marketers and ultimately the consumer. Currently, commercial avocado maturity estimation is based on the destructive assessment of percentage dry matter (%DM), and sometimes percentage oil, both of which are highly correlated with maturity. In this study the utility of Fourier transform (FT) near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) was investigated for the first time as a non-invasive technique for estimating %DM of whole intact 'Hass' avocado fruit. Partial least squares regression models were developed from the diffuse reflectance spectra to predict %DM, taking into account effects of intra-seasonal variation and orchard conditions. RESULTS: It was found that combining three harvests (early, mid and late) from a single farm in the major production district of central Queensland yielded a predictive model for %DM with a coefficient of determination for the validation set of 0.76 and a root mean square error of prediction of 1.53% for DM in the range 19.4-34.2%. CONCLUSION: The results of the study indicate the potential of FT-NIRS in diffuse reflectance mode to non-invasively predict %DM of whole 'Hass' avocado fruit. When the FT-NIRS system was assessed on whole avocados, the results compared favourably against data from other NIRS systems identified in the literature that have been used in research applications on avocados.

Monolithic surface acoustic wave resonator oscillator

A monolithic surface acoustic wave (SAW) resonator operating at 156 MHz, in which the frequency controlling element is a Fabry–Perot type of SAW resonator and the gain element is a monolithic SAW amplifier (SiOx/InSb/SiOx structure located inside the SAW resonator cavity) is described and experimental details presented. Based on the existing experimental data, an uhf monolithic ring resonator oscillator is proposed. Journal of Applied Physics is copyrighted by The American Institute of Physics.

Acoustic-surface-wave generation along a cylindrical plasma column surrounded by a compressible gas

Acoustic surface waves can be generated along the plasma column in pressure equilibrium with a gas blanket in the presence of the uniform axial magnetic field. Unlike the case of volume-acoustic-wave generation in the magnetoplasma reported recently, the threshold magnetic field required for the generation of acoustic surface waves increases with increasing gas pressure.

Evaluate traffic noise level based on traffic microsimulation combined with a refined classic noise prediction method

In this paper, a refined classic noise prediction method based on the VISSIM and FHWA noise prediction model is formulated to analyze the sound level contributed by traffic on the Nanjing Lukou airport connecting freeway before and after widening. The aim of this research is to (i) assess the traffic noise impact on the Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics (NUAA) campus before and after freeway widening, (ii) compare the prediction results with field data to test the accuracy of this method, (iii) analyze the relationship between traffic characteristics and sound level. The results indicate that the mean difference between model predictions and field measurements is acceptable. The traffic composition impact study indicates that buses (including mid-sized trucks) and heavy goods vehicles contribute a significant proportion of total noise power despite their low traffic volume. In addition, speed analysis offers an explanation for the minor differences in noise level across time periods. Future work will aim at reducing model error, by focusing on noise barrier analysis using the FEM/BEM method and modifying the vehicle noise emission equation by conducting field experimentation.

Electrode kinetics of a nickel/cadmium cell and failure-mode prediction. Estimation of equivalent resistance of an internal short

A quantitative expression has been obtained for the equivalent resistance of an internal short in rechargeable cells under constant voltage charging.

Analysis of proteins with the `hot dog' fold: Prediction of function and identification of catalytic residues of hypothetical proteins

Background: The hot dog fold has been found in more than sixty proteins since the first report of its existence about a decade ago. The fold appears to have a strong association with fatty acid biosynthesis, its regulation and metabolism, as the proteins with this fold are predominantly coenzyme A-binding enzymes with a variety of substrates located at their active sites. Results: We have analyzed the structural features and sequences of proteins having the hot dog fold. This study reveals that though the basic architecture of the fold is well conserved in these proteins, significant differences exist in their sequence, nature of substrate and oligomerization. Segments with certain conserved sequence motifs seem to play crucial structural and functional roles in various classes of these proteins. Conclusion: The analysis led to predictions regarding the functional classification and identification of possible catalytic residues of a number of hot dog fold-containing hypothetical proteins whose structures were determined in high throughput structural genomics projects.