Bayesian analysis of the error correction model

This paper presents a method for estimating the posterior probability density of the cointegrating rank of a multivariate error correction model. A second contribution is the careful elicitation of the prior for the cointegrating vectors derived from a prior on the cointegrating space. This prior obtains naturally from treating the cointegrating space as the parameter of interest in inference and overcomes problems previously encountered in Bayesian cointegration analysis. Using this new prior and Laplace approximation, an estimator for the posterior probability of the rank is given. The approach performs well compared with information criteria in Monte Carlo experiments. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Algebraic Bethe ansatz for the anisotropic supersymmetric U model

We present an algebraic Bethe ansatz for the anisotropic supersymmetric U model for correlated electrons on the unrestricted 4(L)-dimensional electronic Hilbert space x(n=l)(L)C(4)(where L is the lattice length). The supersymmetry algebra of the local Hamiltonian is the quantum superalgebra U-q[gl(2\1)] and the model contains two symmetry-preserving free real parameters; the quantization parameter q and the Hubbard interaction parameter U. The parameter U arises from the one-parameter family of inequivalent typical four-dimensional irreps of U-q[gl(2\1)]. Eigenstates of the model are determined by the algebraic Bethe ansatz on a one-dimensional periodic lattice.

Satellite observation and climate system model simulation of the St. Lawrence Island polynya

The St. Lawrence Island polynya (SLIP) is a commonly occurring winter phenomenon in the Bering Sea, in which dense saline water produced during new ice formation is thought to flow northward through the Bering Strait to help maintain the Arctic Ocean halocline. Winter darkness and inclement weather conditions have made continuous in situ and remote observation of this polynya difficult. However, imagery acquired from the European Space Agency ERS-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) has allowed observation of the St. Lawrence Island polynya using both the imagery and derived ice displacement products. With the development of ARCSyM, a high resolution regional model of the Arctic atmosphere/sea ice system, simulation of the SLIP in a climate model is now possible. Intercomparisons between remotely sensed products and simulations can lead to additional insight into the SLIP formation process. Low resolution SAR, SSM/I and AVHRR infrared imagery for the St. Lawrence Island region are compared with the results of a model simulation for the period of 24-27 February 1992. The imagery illustrates a polynya event (polynya opening). With the northerly winds strong and consistent over several days, the coupled model captures the SLIP event with moderate accuracy. However, the introduction of a stability dependent atmosphere-ice drag coefficient, which allows feedbacks between atmospheric stability, open water, and air-ice drag, produces a more accurate simulation of the SLIP in comparison to satellite imagery. Model experiments show that the polynya event is forced primarily by changes in atmospheric circulation followed by persistent favorable conditions: ocean surface currents are found to have a small but positive impact on the simulation which is enhanced when wind forcing is weak or variable.

Endostatin- and interleukin-2-expressing retroviral bicistronic vector for gene therapy of metastatic renal cell carcinoma

Background Metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) is one of the most treatment-resistant malignancies. Despite all new therapeutic advances, almost all patients develop resistance to treatment and cure is rarely seen. In the present study, we evaluated the antitumor effect of a bicistronic retrovirus vector encoding both endostatin (ES) and interleukin (IL)-2 using an orthotopic metastatic RCC mouse model. Methods Balb/C-bearing Renca cells were treated with NIH/3T3-LendIRES-IL-2-SN cells. In the survival studies, mice were monitored daily until they died. At the end of the in vivo experiment, serum levels of IL-2 and ES were measured, the lung was weighed, and the number of metastatic nodules, nodule area, tumor vessels and proliferation of tumor-infiltrating Renca cells were determined. Results Inoculation of NIH/3T3-LendIRES-IL-2-SN cells resulted in an increase in ES and IL-2 levels in the treated group (p < 0.05). There was a significant decrease in lung wet weight, lung nodule area and tumor vessels in the treated group compared to the control group (p < 0.001). The proliferation of Renca cells in the bicistronic-treated group was significantly reduced compared to the control group (p < 0.05). Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that the probability of survival was significantly higher for mice submitted to bicistronic therapy (log-rank test, p = 0.0016). Bicistronic therapy caused an increase in the infiltration of CD4, CD4 interferon (IFN)gamma-producing, CD8, CD8 IFN gamma-producing and natural killer (CD49b) cells. Conclusions Retroviral bicistronic gene transfer led to the secretion of functional ES and IL-2 that was sufficiently active to: (i) inhibit tumor angiogenesis and tumor cell proliferation and (ii) increase the infiltration of immune cells (C) Copyright. 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An isolated perfused human placental lobule model for multiple indicator dilution studies

We describe a method for multiple indicator dilution studies in the isolated perfused human placental lobule developed to investigate the relationships between changes in pressure and flow and solute clearance. A peripheral lobule of a human placenta is perfused with a tissue culture-based medium and the perfusate oxygen tension, arterial and venous pressures, pH and perfusion temperature continuously monitored by a computerized system. Flow rates are readily changed. Bolus injections of vascular, extracellular and water space markers, and study compounds can be made into either maternal or fetal circulations, and precisely timed outflow fractions can be collected with computer-controlled fraction collectors, allowing simultaneous determination of concentration-time profiles of each marker. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc.

Genetic algorithms for continuous optimization problems - a concept of parameter-space size adjustment

The concept of parameter-space size adjustment is pn,posed in order to enable successful application of genetic algorithms to continuous optimization problems. Performance of genetic algorithms with six different combinations of selection and reproduction mechanisms, with and without parameter-space size adjustment, were severely tested on eleven multiminima test functions. An algorithm with the best performance was employed for the determination of the model parameters of the optical constants of Pt, Ni and Cr.

Preliminary findings from a new animal model for Peyronie`s disease involving extracorporeal shock waves

To develop an experimental model in rabbits to analyse the efficiency of extracorporeal shock wave therapy (ESWT) for Peyronie`s disease. We used 15 adult male rabbits divided into three equal groups. In group 1 (no penile ESWT) rabbits had three sessions of ESWT with 2000 shocks each (15 kV), but a rubber mat was placed between the shock head and rabbit to protect the penis; the rabbits were killed at 7 days after the last session of ESWT. In group 2 the rabbits had three sessions of ESWT using the same parameters, and were killed immediately after the last session to analyse the penis. In group 3 the rabbits had three sessions of ESWT as before but were killed at 7 days after the last session, and the penile tissue analysed macroscopically and histologically. The results showed clearly that the model was efficient, creating a similar situation to that when applying ESWT in the human penis. All of the rabbits in groups 2 and 3 had haematomas and diffuse petechiae after ESWT, and only four had urethral and penile bleeding. Almost all macroscopic changes disappeared after 48 h and only one rabbit in group 3 after 7 days had a haematoma on the dorsal penile surface. The histology (assessed using haematoxylin and eosin staining) of the cavernous body of the penis showed: unchanged histology in group 1; in group 2 there was a dilated and congested vascular space in the cavernous body, with interstitial extensive bleeding in the dermis; and in group 3 there was an increase in interstitial fibrous tissue in the cavernous septum, with deposition of collagen fibres and thickening of the tunica albuginea. The present model was efficient in producing tissue injury in the normal penis when treated with ESWT, suggesting that this promising model should be considered for use future studies of Peyronie`s disease.

Endoscopic Anatomy of the Pterygopalatine Fossa and the Transpterygoid Approach: Development of a Surgical Instruction Model

Introduction: The pterygopalatine fossa (PPF) is a narrow space located between the posterior wall of the antrum and the pterygoid plates. Surgical access to the PPF is difficult because of its protected position and its complex neurovascular anatomy. Endonasal approaches using rod lens endoscopes, however, provide better visualization of this area and are associated with less morbidity than external approaches. Our aim was to develop a simple anatomical model using cadaveric specimens injected with intravascular colored silicone to demonstrate the endoscopic anatomy of the PPF. This model could be used for surgical instruction of the transpterygoid approach. Methods: We dissected six PPF in three cadaveric specimens prepared with intravascular injection of colored material using two different injection techniques. An endoscopic endonasal approach, including a wide nasoantral window and removal of the posterior antrum wall, provided access to the PPF. Results: We produced our best anatomical model injecting colored silicone via the common carotid artery. We found that, using an endoscopic approach, a retrograde dissection of the sphenopalatine artery helped to identify the internal maxillary artery (IMA) and its branches. Neural structures were identified deeper to the vascular elements. Notable anatomical landmarks for the endoscopic surgeon are the vidian nerve and its canal that leads to the petrous portion of the internal carotid artery (ICA), and the foramen rotundum, and V2 that leads to Meckel`s cave in the middle cranial fossa. These two nerves, vidian and V2, are separated by a pyramidal shaped bone and its apex marks the ICA. Conclusion: Our anatomical model provides the means to learn the endoscopic anatomy of the PPF and may be used for the simulation of surgical techniques. An endoscopic endonasal approach provides adequate exposure to all anatomical structures within the PPF. These structures may be used as landmarks to identify and control deeper neurovascular structures. The significance is that an anatomical model facilitates learning the surgical anatomy and the acquisition of surgical skills. A dissection superficial to the vascular structures preserves the neural elements. These nerves and their bony foramina, such as the vidian nerve and V2, are critical anatomical landmarks to identify and control the ICA at the skull base.

Capnography reflects ventilation/perfusion distribution in a model of acute lung injury

Background Changes in the shape of the capnogram may reflect changes in lung physiology. We studied the effect of different ventilation/perfusion ratios (V/Q) induced by positive end-expiratory pressures (PEEP) and lung recruitment on phase III slope (S(III)) of volumetric capnograms. Methods Seven lung-lavaged pigs received volume control ventilation at tidal volumes of 6 ml/kg. After a lung recruitment maneuver, open-lung PEEP (OL-PEEP) was defined at 2 cmH(2)O above the PEEP at the onset of lung collapse as identified by the maximum respiratory compliance during a decremental PEEP trial. Thereafter, six distinct PEEP levels either at OL-PEEP, 4 cmH(2)O above or below this level were applied in a random order, either with or without a prior lung recruitment maneuver. Ventilation-perfusion distribution (using multiple inert gas elimination technique), hemodynamics, blood gases and volumetric capnography data were recorded at the end of each condition (minute 40). Results S(III) showed the lowest value whenever lung recruitment and OL-PEEP were jointly applied and was associated with the lowest dispersion of ventilation and perfusion (Disp(R-E)), the lowest ratio of alveolar dead space to alveolar tidal volume (VD(alv)/VT(alv)) and the lowest difference between arterial and end-tidal pCO(2) (Pa-ETCO(2)). Spearman`s rank correlations between S(III) and Disp(R-E) showed a =0.85 with 95% CI for (Fisher`s Z-transformation) of 0.74-0.91, P < 0.0001. Conclusion In this experimental model of lung injury, changes in the phase III slope of the capnograms were directly correlated with the degree of ventilation/perfusion dispersion.

Experimental model for study of anorectal sphincter musculature by manometry and computerized tomography in piglets

There seems to be controversy on the anorectal sphincter presentation and anatomical division, as well as on its functional representation. Evaluation of the anorectal sphincter musculature has been achieved through several methods, including anorectal manometry and computerized tomography, but to date there is no experimental model allowing a detailed manometric study of this muscle complex. In this work, we have developed such a model, which should enable the manometric and radiographic study of the anatomical features and functional mechanisms of sphincteric injuries, as well as the assessment of drug effects on the anorectal musculature upon incontinence and constipation. Twenty-two piglets (aged 25-30 days, weighing 5-7 kg) were studied by anorectal manometry (rectoanal inhibitory reflex and vector volume) and computerized tomography (anorectal angle and anal canal length). The data obtained for the rectoanal inhibitory reflex, represented here as the average and standard deviation, were the following: relaxation duration = 14.75 +/- 3.62 s, sphincter basal pressure = 41.58 +/- 8.20 mmHg, relaxation index = 87.26 +/- 11.52%, speed of relaxation = 5.90 +/- 2.10 mm/s, and speed of relaxation recovery = 4.03 +/- 1.78 mm/s. As for the vector volume, results were as follows: vector volume = 2692.32 +/- 1298.12 mmHg(2) cm, sphincter length = 11.82 +/- 2.74 mm, high pressure zone length = 5.09 +/- 1.34 mm, maximum pressure = 61.50 +/- 20.58 mmHg, and asymmetry index = 43.50 +/- 10.03%. Radiographic evaluation led to the following results: anal canal length = 9.61 +/- 2.14 mm and anorectal angle = 137.91 +/- 7.75 degrees. The experimental model designed here allows both anorectal manometry and computerized tomography to be carried out in the same way it is performed in human beings, as long as animal sedation is strictly controlled.

Percutaneous Transatrial Access to the Pericardial Space for Epicardial Mapping and Ablation

Background-Puncture of the atrial appendage may provide access to the pericardial space. The aim of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of epicardial mapping and ablation through an endocardial transatrial access in a swine model. Methods and Results-An 8-F Mullins sheath was used to perforate the right (n=16) or left (n=1) atrial appendage in 17 pigs (median weight, 27.5 kg; first and third quartiles [Q1, Q3], 25.2, 30.0 kg). A 7-F ablation catheter was introduced into the pericardial space to perform epicardial mapping and deliver radiofrequency pulses on the atria. The pericardial space was entered in all 17 animals. In 15 (88%) animals, there was no hemodynamic instability (mean blood pressure monitoring, initial median, 80 mm Hg; Q1, Q3, 70, 86 mm Hg; final median, 88 mm Hg; Q1, Q3, 80, 96 mm Hg; P=0.426). In these 15, a mild hemorrhagic pericardial effusion was identified and aspirated (median, 20 mL; Q1, Q3, 15, 30 mL) during the procedure, and postmortem gross analysis revealed that the atrial perforation was closed in these animals. In 2 (12%) of the 17 animals, there was major pericardial bleeding with hemodynamic collapse. On gross examination, it was found that pericardial space was accessed through right ventricular perforation in 1 animal and the tricuspid annulus in the other. After the initial study, we used an occlusion device in 3 other animals to attempt to seal the puncture (2 at the right atrial appendage and 1 at the right ventricle). These 3 animals had no significant pericardial bleeding. Conclusions-Transatrial endovascular right atrial appendage puncture may provide a potential alternative route for pericardial access. Further studies are needed to evaluate its safety with longer and more-complex procedures before being applied in clinical settings. (Circ Arrhythm Electrophysiol. 2011;4:331-336.)

Short-Term Effects of Hydroxyethylstarch Resuscitation on Systemic and Regional Hemodynamics and Metabolism in a Brain-Dead Canine Model

Background. Hydroxyethylstarch (HES) is a synthetic polymer of glucose that has been suggested for therapeutic use in long-term plasma expansion. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that the infusion of a small volume of HES may provide benefits in systemic and regional hemodynamics and metabolism in a brain-dead canine model compared with large volume crystalloid resuscitation. Methods. Fourteen mongrel dogs were subjected to a brain-death protocol by consecutive insufflations of a balloon catheter in the epidural space. One hour after induction of brain-death, the animals were randomly assigned to two groups: NS (0.9% NaCl, 33mL/kg), and HES (6% HES 450/0.7, 17mL/Kg). Systemic and regional hemodynamics were evaluated using Swan-Ganz, ultrasonic flowprobes, and arterial catheters. Serial blood samples were collected for blood gas, electrolyte, and serum chemistry analysis. Systemic, hepatic, and splanchnic O(2)-derived variables were also calculated. Results. Epidural balloon insufflations induced a significant increase in mean arterial pressure, cardiac output (MAP and CO, respectively), regional blood flow, and systemic vascular resistance. Following the hyperdynamic phase, severe hypotension with normalization of systemic and regional blood flow was observed. Fluid resuscitation induced a prompt increase in MAP, CO, and portal vein blood flow, and a significant reduction in systemic and pulmonary vascular resistance. There were no differences between groups in metabolic indices, liver function tests (LFTs), or renal function tests. HES was more effective than NS in restoring cardiac performance in the first 2h after fluid resuscitation (P < 0.05). Both tested solutions partially and temporarily restored systemic and regional oxygen delivery. Conclusion. Small volumes of 6% HES 450/0.7 improved cardiovascular performance and provided the same regional hemodynamic and metabolic benefits of large volumes of isotonic crystalloid solutions. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Surveillance of Rickettsia sp infection in capybaras (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris) a potential model of epidemiological alert in endemic areas

Introduction. Capybaras (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris) are considered amplifying hosts of Rickettsia sp. These rodents are usually parasitized by the tick vector, Amblyomma cajennense, the main vector of rickettsioses in humans and animals in South America. Capybaras can be used as sentinels in detection of circulation of rickettsiae. Objective. Antibodies to rickettsiae of spotted fever group were detected in capybaras in a rural area of Cordoba Province, northern Colombia. Materials and methods. Sera were analyzed from 36 capybaras in a rural area of Monteria (village of San Jeronimo) in Cordoba. For the detection of IgG antibodies, indirect immunofluorescence was performed. The antigens were derived from R. rickettsia strain Taiacu isolated in Brazil. Capybara sera were diluted 1:64 for IFA analysis. Ticks were collected from each capybara (also known as chiguiro) and identified to species. Results. The seroprevalence of spotted fever group Rickettsia was 22% (8 capybaras). Four sera had a titer of 1:64, 3 had a titer of 1:128 and one serum had a titer of 1:512. All ticks removed from the capybaras (n=933) were taxonomically identified as Amblyomma cajennense. Conclusion. Colombia has areas endemic for rickettsioses, as indicated by confirmed annual outbreaks. The current study reports the first evidence of natural rickettsial infection of the spotted fever group in capybaras from Colombia. The findings suggest that capybaras can be used as sentinels for the circulation of rickettsiae and can identify endemic areas for the transmission of rickettsial diseases.

Estimation of R(0) from the initial phase of an outbreak of a vector-borne infection

The magnitude of the basic reproduction ratio R(0) of an epidemic can be estimated in several ways, namely, from the final size of the epidemic, from the average age at first infection, or from the initial growth phase of the outbreak. In this paper, we discuss this last method for estimating R(0) for vector-borne infections. Implicit in these models is the assumption that there is an exponential phase of the outbreaks, which implies that in all cases R(0) > 1. We demonstrate that an outbreak is possible, even in cases where R(0) is less than one, provided that the vector-to-human component of R(0) is greater than one and that a certain number of infected vectors are introduced into the affected population. This theory is applied to two real epidemiological dengue situations in the southeastern part of Brazil, one where R(0) is less than one, and other one where R(0) is greater than one. In both cases, the model mirrors the real situations with reasonable accuracy.