Does unemployment hurt less if there is more of it around? A panel analysis of life satisfaction in Germany and Switzerland

This paper examines the existence of a habituation effect to unemployment: Do theunemployed suffer less from job loss if unemployment is more widespread, if their ownunemployment lasts longer and if unemployment is a recurrent experience? Theunderlying idea is that unemployment hysteresis may operate through a sociologicalchannel: if many people in the community lose their job and remain unemployed over anextended period, the psychological cost of being unemployed diminishes and the pressureto accept a new job declines. We analyze this question with individual-level data from theGerman Socio-Economic Panel (1984-2009) and the Swiss Household Panel (2000-2009). We find no evidence for a mitigating effect of high surrounding unemployment onunemployed individuals' subjective well-being: Becoming unemployed hurts as muchwhen regional unemployment is high as when it is low. Likewise, the strongly harmfulimpact of being unemployed on well-being does not wear off over time, nor do repeatedepisodes of unemployment make it any better. It thus appears doubtful that anunemployment shock becomes persistent because the unemployed become used to, andhence reasonably content with, being without a job.

Influence from friends to drink more or drink less: a cross-national comparison.

Drinking habits are socially patterned and social networks influence individuals' drinking behaviors. Previous studies have focused primarily upon the influence from family members to drink less. Those studies that have focused upon peer influence have been largely confined to social norms among adolescent and college-age drinkers. By contrast, based in adult populations, this article examines exhortations from friends not only to reduce alcohol consumption but also to increase it. Survey data in 15 countries that participate in the Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study project (GENACIS) were used to test whether there were country and gender differences concerning the influence to drink less or to drink more by friends and examine if this was affected by the drinking behavior. The findings revealed that those influenced to drink less had more heavy episodic drinking (HED) occasions than those who did not report such influence. By contrast, influence to drink more, originating mainly from same-sex friends, may be more the result of social situations that encourage all drinkers, regardless of their frequency of HED occasions. At the country level, influence to drink less for both sexes decreased with the proportion of drinkers in a country. Similarly, influence to drink less for both sexes also decreased in countries where gender roles were more egalitarian. Thus, in countries where alcohol use is more widespread and fewer differences are observed between male and female gender role expectations, fewer people were influenced to drink less. These findings have implications for social and behavioral strategies designed to reduce alcohol-related harm across a wide range of cultures.

Less is more ? The Commission proposal on access to EU documents and the proper limits of transparency

Transparency is now seen as a key tool of democratic governance. The European Union's commitment to transparency is now at the centre of a crucial debate between the Commission and the Parliament on the future of citizen's right of access to information. This article presents the main characteristics of the current regime and questions the pertinence of the proposed changes in light of the international drive at modernising access to information laws and the attempt at identifying the ̳proper limits of transparency'. The questions raised range from the identification of what can be accessed to the definition of exemption and the protection of competing interests.

Population based screening - the difficulty of how to do more good than harm and how to achieve it.

Screening people without symptoms of disease is an attractive idea. Screening allows early detection of disease or elevated risk of disease, and has the potential for improved treatment and reduction of mortality. The list of future screening opportunities is set to grow because of the refinement of screening techniques, the increasing frequency of degenerative and chronic diseases, and the steadily growing body of evidence on genetic predispositions for various diseases. But how should we decide on the diseases for which screening should be done and on recommendations for how it should be implemented? We use the examples of prostate cancer and genetic screening to show the importance of considering screening as an ongoing population-based intervention with beneficial and harmful effects, and not simply the use of a test. Assessing whether screening should be recommended and implemented for any named disease is therefore a multi-dimensional task in health technology assessment. There are several countries that already use established processes and criteria to assess the appropriateness of screening. We argue that the Swiss healthcare system needs a nationwide screening commission mandated to conduct appropriate evidence-based evaluation of the impact of proposed screening interventions, to issue evidence-based recommendations, and to monitor the performance of screening programmes introduced. Without explicit processes there is a danger that beneficial screening programmes could be neglected and that ineffective, and potentially harmful, screening procedures could be introduced.

Water scarcity management and agricultural production (What we can do to produce more with less water)

Crop seasonal sensitivity to water stress is concerned with how to control water stress levels to optimise yield or profitability. It deals with when we can reduce irrigation and impose moderate water deficits without affecting our target, and when we can apply water to avoid too much stress.

Providing more informative projections of climate change impact on plant distribution in a mountain environment

Summary Due to their conic shape and the reduction of area with increasing elevation, mountain ecosystems were early identified as potentially very sensitive to global warming. Moreover, mountain systems may experience unprecedented rates of warming during the next century, two or three times higher than that records of the 20th century. In this context, species distribution models (SDM) have become important tools for rapid assessment of the impact of accelerated land use and climate change on the distribution plant species. In my study, I developed and tested new predictor variables for species distribution models (SDM), specific to current and future geographic projections of plant species in a mountain system, using the Western Swiss Alps as model region. Since meso- and micro-topography are relevant to explain geographic patterns of plant species in mountain environments, I assessed the effect of scale on predictor variables and geographic projections of SDM. I also developed a methodological framework of space-for-time evaluation to test the robustness of SDM when projected in a future changing climate. Finally, I used a cellular automaton to run dynamic simulations of plant migration under climate change in a mountain landscape, including realistic distance of seed dispersal. Results of future projections for the 21st century were also discussed in perspective of vegetation changes monitored during the 20th century. Overall, I showed in this study that, based on the most severe A1 climate change scenario and realistic dispersal simulations of plant dispersal, species extinctions in the Western Swiss Alps could affect nearly one third (28.5%) of the 284 species modeled by 2100. With the less severe 61 scenario, only 4.6% of species are predicted to become extinct. However, even with B1, 54% (153 species) may still loose more than 80% of their initial surface. Results of monitoring of past vegetation changes suggested that plant species can react quickly to the warmer conditions as far as competition is low However, in subalpine grasslands, competition of already present species is probably important and limit establishment of newly arrived species. Results from future simulations also showed that heavy extinctions of alpine plants may start already in 2040, but the latest in 2080. My study also highlighted the importance of fine scale and regional. assessments of climate change impact on mountain vegetation, using more direct predictor variables. Indeed, predictions at the continental scale may fail to predict local refugees or local extinctions, as well as loss of connectivity between local populations. On the other hand, migrations of low-elevation species to higher altitude may be difficult to predict at the local scale. Résumé La forme conique des montagnes ainsi que la diminution de surface dans les hautes altitudes sont reconnues pour exposer plus sensiblement les écosystèmes de montagne au réchauffement global. En outre, les systèmes de montagne seront sans doute soumis durant le 21ème siècle à un réchauffement deux à trois fois plus rapide que celui mesuré durant le 20ème siècle. Dans ce contexte, les modèles prédictifs de distribution géographique de la végétation se sont imposés comme des outils puissants pour de rapides évaluations de l'impact des changements climatiques et de la transformation du paysage par l'homme sur la végétation. Dans mon étude, j'ai développé de nouvelles variables prédictives pour les modèles de distribution, spécifiques à la projection géographique présente et future des plantes dans un système de montagne, en utilisant les Préalpes vaudoises comme zone d'échantillonnage. La méso- et la microtopographie étant particulièrement adaptées pour expliquer les patrons de distribution géographique des plantes dans un environnement montagneux, j'ai testé les effets d'échelle sur les variables prédictives et sur les projections des modèles de distribution. J'ai aussi développé un cadre méthodologique pour tester la robustesse potentielle des modèles lors de projections pour le futur. Finalement, j'ai utilisé un automate cellulaire pour simuler de manière dynamique la migration future des plantes dans le paysage et dans quatre scénarios de changement climatique pour le 21ème siècle. J'ai intégré dans ces simulations des mécanismes et des distances plus réalistes de dispersion de graines. J'ai pu montrer, avec les simulations les plus réalistes, que près du tiers des 284 espèces considérées (28.5%) pourraient être menacées d'extinction en 2100 dans le cas du plus sévère scénario de changement climatique A1. Pour le moins sévère des scénarios B1, seulement 4.6% des espèces sont menacées d'extinctions, mais 54% (153 espèces) risquent de perdre plus 80% de leur habitat initial. Les résultats de monitoring des changements de végétation dans le passé montrent que les plantes peuvent réagir rapidement au réchauffement climatique si la compétition est faible. Dans les prairies subalpines, les espèces déjà présentes limitent certainement l'arrivée de nouvelles espèces par effet de compétition. Les résultats de simulation pour le futur prédisent le début d'extinctions massives dans les Préalpes à partir de 2040, au plus tard en 2080. Mon travail démontre aussi l'importance d'études régionales à échelle fine pour évaluer l'impact des changements climatiques sur la végétation, en intégrant des variables plus directes. En effet, les études à échelle continentale ne tiennent pas compte des micro-refuges, des extinctions locales ni des pertes de connectivité entre populations locales. Malgré cela, la migration des plantes de basses altitudes reste difficile à prédire à l'échelle locale sans modélisation plus globale.

Delirium and cognitive decline: more than a coincidence.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To review the recent findings on the relationships between delirium and cognitive decline in the elderly. RECENT FINDINGS: Current advances in the field include substantial new evidence that delirium increases the risk of dementia in patients without previous cognitive impairment and accelerates cognitive decline in patients with Alzheimer's disease. Findings on cognitive trajectories and domains affected contribute to better understanding of the clinical nature of cognitive impairment after delirium. Volume loss and disruption of white matter integrity may represent early MRI markers for long-term cognitive impairment. Neurodegenerative and low-level chronic inflammatory processes predispose to exaggerated response to incident stimuli that may precipitate both acute brain dysfunction and persisting cerebral damage. SUMMARY: Still little is known about the relationship between delirium and cognitive trajectories in the elderly, and the underlying pathophysiological mechanisms. The association of neurodegenerative and inflammatory processes appears to play an important role in the pathogenesis and the clinical course of cognitive impairment after delirium. The hypothetical role of several other factors remains to be clarified. Further clinical studies are needed to evaluate whether prevention and treatment approaches that proved to be useful to reduce delirium incidence and severity may also improve long-term outcomes, and prevent cognitive decline.

Fecal calprotectin more accurately reflects endoscopic activity of ulcerative colitis than the Lichtiger Index, CRP, and blood leukocytes

Background: Thus far, the correlation of noninvasive markers with endoscopic activity in ulcerative colitis (UC) according to the modified Baron Index is unknown. We aimed to evaluate the correlation between endoscopic activity and fecal calprotectin (FC), C-reactive protein (CRP), blood leukocytes, and the Lichtiger Index (clinical score). Methods: UC patients undergoing complete colonoscopy were prospectively enrolled and scored clinically and endoscopically in an independent fashion. Fecal and blood samples were analyzed in UC patients and controls. Results: We enrolled 228 UC patients and 52 controls. Endoscopic disease activity correlated best with FC (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient r = 0.821), followed by the Lichtiger Index (r = 0.682), CRP (r = 0.556), and leukocytes (r = 0.401). FC was the only marker discriminating between different grades of endoscopic activity (grade 0, 20}11 mg/g; grade 1, 44}34 mg/g; grade 2, 111}74 mg/g; grade 3, 330}332 mg/g; grade 4, 659}319 mg/g; P = 0.0018 for discriminating grade 0 vs. 1 and P < 0.001 for discriminating all other grades). FC had the highest overall accuracy (91%) to detect endoscopically active disease (modified Baron Index _2), followed by the Lichtiger Index of _4 (77%), CRP larger than 5 mg/L (69%) and blood leukocytosis (58%). Conclusions: FC better correlated with the endoscopic disease activity than clinical activity, CRP, and blood leukocytes. The strong correlation with endoscopic disease activity suggests that FC represents a useful biomarker for noninvasive monitoring of disease activity in UC patients.