Results from the April 2009 Gulf of Alaska Line Transect Survey (GOALS) in the Navy Training Exercise Area

Little is known about the present-day occurrence of cetaceans found in offshore waters in the Gulf of Alaska; however, whaling records and a few recent surveys have shown this area to be important habitat. The U.S. Navy maintains a maritime training area in the central Gulf of Alaska, east of Kodiak Island, and has requested additional information on marine mammal presence and use of this area. To describe the occurrence and distribution of marine mammals in and around the U.S. Navy training area, a line transect visual and acoustic survey was conducted 10-20 April 2009 from the NOAA ship Oscar Dyson. The primary survey area encompassed nearshore and offshore pelagic waters of the central Gulf of Alaska. Survey lines were designed to provide equal coverage of the nearshore and offshore habitat.

Implantation of Subcutaneous Radio Transmitters in the Harbor Seal (Phoca vitulina)

Radio telemetry has become a standard tool for studying the behavior, physiology, life history traits, and population dynamics of marine mammals. Radio transmitters typically are attached to the hind flippers of pinnipeds or glued to the fur using marine epoxy or other cyanocrylare adhesives (Fedak et al. 1983, Bengtson 1993, Jeffries et al. 1993). Longterm data acquisition is difficult, however, because radio-flipper transmitters commonly tear from the webbing of the flipper and instruments that are glued to the fur are shed during the seasonal molt.

Regional differences in the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of oceanographic habitat used by Steller sea lions

Over the past three decades, the decline and altered spatial distribution of the western stock of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Alaska have been attributed to changes in the distribution or abundance of their prey due to the cumulative effects of fisheries and environmental perturbations. During this period, dietary prey occurrence and diet diversity were related to population decline within metapopulation regions of the western stock of Steller sea lions, suggesting that environmental conditions may be variable among regions. The objective of this study, therefore, was to examine regional differences in the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of oceanographic habitat used by Steller sea lions within the context of recent measures of diet diversity and population trajectories. Habitat use was assessed by deploying satellite-depth recorders and satellite relay data loggers on juvenile Steller sea lions (n = 45) over a five-year period (2000–2004) within four regions of the western stock, including the western, central, and eastern Aleutian Islands, and central Gulf of Alaska. Areas used by sea lions during summer months (June, July, and August) were demarcated using satellite telemetry data and characterized by environmental variables (sea surface temperature [SST] and chlorophyll a [chl a]), which possibly serve as proxies for environmental processes or prey. Spatial patterns of SST diversity and Steller sea lion population trends among regions were fairly consistent with trends reported for diet studies, possibly indicating a link between environmental diversity, prey diversity, and distribution or abundance of Steller sea lions. Overall, maximum spatial heterogeneity coupled with minimal temporal variability of SST appeared to be beneficial for Steller sea lions. In contrast, these patterns were not consistent for chl a, and there appeared to be an ecological threshold. Understanding how Steller sea lions respond to measures of environmental heterogeneity will ultimately be useful for implementing ecosystem management approaches and developing additional conservation strategies.

Distance software: design and analysis of distance sampling surveys for estimating population size

1. Distance sampling is a widely used technique for estimating the size or density of biological populations. Many distance sampling designs and most analyses use the software Distance. 2. We briefly review distance sampling and its assumptions, outline the history, structure and capabilities of Distance, and provide hints on its use. 3. Good survey design is a crucial prerequisite for obtaining reliable results. Distance has a survey design engine, with a built-in geographic information system, that allows properties of different proposed designs to be examined via simulation, and survey plans to be generated. 4. A first step in analysis of distance sampling data is modeling the probability of detection. Distance contains three increasingly sophisticated analysis engines for this: conventional distance sampling, which models detection probability as a function of distance from the transect and assumes all objects at zero distance are detected; multiple-covariate distance sampling, which allows covariates in addition to distance; and mark–recapture distance sampling, which relaxes the assumption of certain detection at zero distance. 5. All three engines allow estimation of density or abundance, stratified if required, with associated measures of precision calculated either analytically or via the bootstrap. 6. Advanced analysis topics covered include the use of multipliers to allow analysis of indirect surveys (such as dung or nest surveys), the density surface modeling analysis engine for spatial and habitat-modeling, and information about accessing the analysis engines directly from other software. 7. Synthesis and applications. Distance sampling is a key method for producing abundance and density estimates in challenging field conditions. The theory underlying the methods continues to expand to cope with realistic estimation situations. In step with theoretical developments, state-of- the-art software that implements these methods is described that makes the methods accessible to practicing ecologists.

Demography and population viability of polar bears in the Gulf of Boothia, Nunavut

We estimated demographic parameters and harvest risks for polar bears (Ursus maritimus) inhabiting the Gulf of Boothia, Nunavut, from 1976 to 2000. We computed survival and abundance from capture–recapture and recovery data (630 marks) using a Burnham joint live–dead model implemented in program MARK. Annual mean total survival (including harvest) was 0.889 ± 0.179 ( x ± 1 SE) for cubs, 0.883 ± 0.087 for subadults (ages 1–4), 0.919 ± 0.044 for adult females, and 0.917 ± 0.041 for adult males. Abundance in the last 3 yr of study was 1,592 ± 361 bears. Mean size of newborn litters was 1.648 ± 0.098 cubs. By age 7, 0.97 ± 0.30 of available females were producing litters. Harvest averaged 38.4 ± 4.2 bears/year in the last 5 yr of study; however, the 2002–2007 kill averaged 56.4 bears/yr. We used a harvested Population Viability Analysis (PVA) to examine impacts of increasing rates of harvest. We estimated the current population growth rate, λH, to be 1.025 ± 0.032. Although this suggests the population is growing, progressive environmental changes may require more frequent population inventory studies to maintain the same levels of harvest risk.

Double-Observer Line Transect Methods: Levels of Independence

Double-observer line transect methods are becoming increasingly widespread, especially for the estimation of marine mammal abundance from aerial and shipboard surveys when detection of animals on the line is uncertain. The resulting data supplement conventional distance sampling data with two-sample mark–recapture data. Like conventional mark–recapture data, these have inherent problems for estimating abundance in the presence of heterogeneity. Unlike conventional mark–recapture methods, line transect methods use knowledge of the distribution of a covariate, which affects detection probability (namely, distance from the transect line) in inference. This knowledge can be used to diagnose unmodeled heterogeneity in the mark–recapture component of the data. By modeling the covariance in detection probabilities with distance, we show how the estimation problem can be formulated in terms of different levels of independence. At one extreme, full independence is assumed, as in the Petersen estimator (which does not use distance data); at the other extreme, independence only occurs in the limit as detection probability tends to one. Between the two extremes, there is a range of models, including those currently in common use, which have intermediate levels of independence. We show how this framework can be used to provide more reliable analysis of double-observer line transect data. We test the methods by simulation, and by analysis of a dataset for which true abundance is known. We illustrate the approach through analysis of minke whale sightings data from the North Sea and adjacent waters.

Contrasting patterns of genetic diversity at three different genetic markers in a marine mammal metapopulation

Many studies use genetic markers to explore population structure and variability within species. However, only a minority use more than one type of marker and, despite increasing evidence of a link between heterozygosity and individual fitness, few ask whether diversity correlates with population trajectory. To address these issues, we analyzed data from the Steller’s sea lion, Eumetiopias jubatus, where three stocks are distributed over a vast geographical range and where both genetic samples and detailed demographic data have been collected from many diverse breeding colonies. To previously published mitochondrial DNA(mtDNA) and microsatellite data sets,we have added new data for amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers, comprising 238 loci scored in 285 sea lions sampled from 23 natal rookeries. Genotypic diversity was low relative to most vertebrates, with only 37 loci (15.5%) being polymorphic. Moreover, contrasting geographical patterns of genetic diversity were found at the three markers, with Nei’s gene diversity tending to be higher for AFLPs and microsatellites in rookeries of the western and Asian stocks, while the highest mtDNA values were found in the eastern stock. Overall, and despite strongly contrasting demographic histories, after applying phylogenetic correction we found little correlation between genetic diversity and either colony size or demography. In contrast, we were able to show a highly significant positive relationship between AFLP diversity and current population size across a range of pinniped species, even though equivalent analyses did not reveal significant trends for either microsatellites or mtDNA.

Health Assessment of Weddell Seals, Leptonychotes weddellii, in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica

The demography of Weddell seals in eastern McMurdo Sound, Antarctica, has been well studied during the past three decades (e.g. Stirling 1971; Siniff et al. 1977; Testa and Siniff 1987; Hastings and Testa 1998; Gelatt et al. 2001). Detailed life-history data are available on thousands of seals tagged as pups in McMurdo Sound, making this population a rich resource for wildlife health studies because health parameters can be evaluated in the light of reproductive histories and genetic relationships of several generations of tagged seals. Recently, evidence of exposure to diseases generally associated with domestic animals and feral wildlife has been detected in Antarctic wildlife (Austin and Webster 1993; Olsen et al. 1996; Gardner et al. 1997; Retamal et al. 2000; Foster et al. 2002) and this has generated concern and debate regarding the risks of disease introduction to Antarctic wildlife. Antibodies to viruses that have caused large die-offs in phocids in other areas of the world have been detected in Weddell seals (Bengtson et al. 1991), and there is a historical report of a mass die-off of crabeater seals that may have had a viral etiology (Laws and Taylor 1957).

Differential Expression of Immune Response Genes in Steller Sea Lions (Eumetopias jubatus): An Indicator of Ecosystem Health?

Characterization of the polygenic and polymorphic features of the Steller sea lion major histocompatibility complex (MHC) provides an ideal window for evaluating immunologic vigor of the population and identifying emergence of new genotypes that reflect ecosystem pressures. MHC genotyping can be used to measure the potential immunologic vigor of a population. However, since ecosystem-induced changes to MHC genotype can be slow to emerge, measurement of differential expression of these genes can potentially provide real-time evidence of immunologic perturbations. MHC DRB genes were cloned and sequenced using peripheral blood mononuclear leukocytes derived from 10 Steller sea lions from Southeast Alaska, Prince William Sound, and the Aleutian Islands. Nine unique DRB gene sequences were represented in each of 10 animals. MHC DRB gene expression was measured in a subset of six sea lions. Although DRB in genomic DNA was identical in all individuals, relative levels of expressed DRB mRNA was highly variable. Selective suppression of MHC DRB genes could be indicative of geographically disparate environmental pressures, thereby serving as an immediate and sensitive indicator of population and ecosystem health.

Development and application of DNA techniques for validating and improving pinniped diet estimates

Polymerase chain reaction techniques were developed and applied to identify DNA from .40 species of prey contained in fecal (scat) soft-part matrix collected at terrestrial sites used by Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in British Columbia and the eastern Aleutian Islands, Alaska. Sixty percent more fish and cephalopod prey were identified by morphological analyses of hard parts compared with DNA analysis of soft parts (hard parts identified higher relative proportions of Ammodytes sp., Cottidae, and certain Gadidae). DNA identified 213 prey occurrences, of which 75 (35%) were undetected by hard parts (mainly Salmonidae, Pleuronectidae, Elasmobranchii, and Cephalopoda), and thereby increased species occurrences by 22% overall and species richness in 44% of cases (when comparing 110 scats that amplified prey DNA). Prey composition was identical within only 20% of scats. Overall, diet composition derived from both identification techniques combined did not differ significantly from hard-part identification alone, suggesting that past scat-based diet studies have not missed major dietary components. However, significant differences in relative diet contributions across scats (as identified using the two techniques separately) reflect passage rate differences between hard and soft digesta material and highlight certain hypothesized limitations in conventional morphological-based methods (e.g., differences in resistance to digestion, hard part regurgitation, partial and secondary prey consumption), as well as potential technical issues (e.g., resolution of primer efficiency and sensitivity and scat subsampling protocols). DNA analysis of salmon occurrence (from scat soft-part matrix and 238 archived salmon hard parts) provided species-level taxonomic resolution that could not be obtained by morphological identification and showed that Steller sea lions were primarily consuming pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) and chum (Oncorhynchus keta) salmon. Notably, DNA from Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) that likely originated from a distant fish farm was also detected in two scats from one site in the eastern Aleutian Islands. Overall, molecular techniques are valuable for identifying prey in the fecal remains of marine predators. Combining DNA and hard-part identification will effectively alleviate certain predicted biases and will ultimately enhance measures of diet richness, fisheries interactions (especially salmon-related ones), and the ecological role of pinnipeds and other marine predators, to the benefit of marine wildlife conservationists and fisheries managers.

History and fate of a small isolated population of Weddell seals at White Island, Antarctica

Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii Lesson) at White Island, Antarctica form a small, completely enclosed, natural population hypothesized to be of recent origin, likely founded by individuals from nearby Erebus Bay. This population constitutes an ideal model to document a founder event and ensuing genetic drift, with implications for conservation. Here we combined historical accounts, census and tagging data since the late 1960s, and genetic data (41 microsatellite loci and mitochondrial DNA sequences) from 84 individuals representing nearly all individuals present between 1990 and 2000 to investigate the history of the founding of the White Island population, document its population dynamics and evaluate possible future threats. We fully resolved parental relationships over three overlapping generations. Cytonuclear disequilibrium among the first generation suggested that it comprised the direct descendants of a founding group. We estimated that the White Island population was founded by a small group of individuals that accessed the island during a brief break in the surrounding sea ice in the mid-1950s, consistent with historical accounts. Direct and indirect methods of calculating effective population size were highly congruent and suggested a minimum founding group consisting of three females and two males. The White Island population showed altered reproductive dynamics compared to Erebus Bay, including highly skewed sex ratio, documented inbred mating events, and the oldest known reproducing Weddell seals. A comparison with the putative source population showed that the White Island population has an effective inbreeding coefficient (Fe) of 0.29. Based on a pedigree analysis including the hypothesized founding group, 86% of the individuals for whom parents were known had inbreeding coefficients ranging 0.09–0.31. This high level of inbreeding was correlated with reduced pup survival. Seals at White Island therefore face the combined effects of low genetic variability, lack of immigration, and inbreeding depression. Ultimately, this study provides evidence of the effects of natural isolation on a large, long-lived vertebrate and can provide clues to the potential effects of anthropogenic- caused isolation of similar taxa.

An Empirical Study of Fault Localization for End-User Programmers

End users develop more software than any other group of programmers, using software authoring devices such as e-mail filtering editors, by-demonstration macro builders, and spreadsheet environments. Despite this, there has been little research on finding ways to help these programmers with the dependability of their software. We have been addressing this problem in several ways, one of which includes supporting end-user debugging activities through fault localization techniques. This paper presents the results of an empirical study conducted in an end-user programming environment to examine the impact of two separate factors in fault localization techniques that affect technique effectiveness. Our results shed new insights into fault localization techniques for end-user programmers and the factors that affect them, with significant implications for the evaluation of those techniques.

Sofya: Supporting Rapid Development of Dynamic Program Analyses for Java

Dynamic analysis is an increasingly important means of supporting software validation and maintenance. To date, developers of dynamic analyses have used low-level instrumentation and debug interfaces to realize their analyses. Many dynamic analyses, however, share multiple common high-level requirements, e.g., capture of program data state as well as events, and efficient and accurate event capture in the presence of threading. We present SOFYA – an infra-structure designed to provide high-level, efficient, concurrency-aware support for building analyses that reason about rich observations of program data and events. It provides a layered, modular architecture, which has been successfully used to rapidly develop and evaluate a variety of demanding dynamic program analyses. In this paper, we describe the SOFYA framework, the challenges it addresses, and survey several such analyses.

Nurturing Young Students' Writing Knowledge, Self-Regulation, Attitudes, and Self-Efficacy: The Effects of Self-Regulated Strategy Development (SRSD)

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of implementing the Self-Regulated Strategy Development (SRSD) model of instruction (Graham & Harris, 2005; Harris & Graham, 1996) on the writing skills and writing self-regulation, attitudes, self-efficacy, and knowledge of 6 first grade students. A multiple-baseline design across participants with multiple probes (Kazdin, 2010) was used to test the effectiveness of the SRSD instructional intervention. Each participant was taught an SRSD story writing strategy as well as self-regulation strategies. All students wrote stories in response to picture prompts during the baseline, instruction, independent performance, and maintenance phases. Stories were assessed for essential story components, length, and overall quality. All participants also completed a writing attitude scale, a writing self-efficacy scale, and participated in brief interviews during the baseline and independent performance phases. Results indicated that SRSD can be beneficial for average first grade writers. Participants wrote stories that contained more essential components, were longer, and of better quality after SRSD instruction. Participants also showed some improvement in writing self-efficacy from pre- to post-instruction. All of the students maintained positive writing attitudes throughout the study.

Termination of Desegregation Decrees and the Elusive Meaning of Unitary Status

Discusses the termination of desegregation decrees and the elusive meaning of unitary status, first introducing the topic and then covering Jenkins III and providing an overview of desegregation scholarship including discretion, capacity, and legitima. Also discusses the evolution of equity, including English equity, American equity, and equity and desegregation. Explores the concepts of relevant rights and interests, focusing on Hohfeld, the interest theory of rights, and the application of the rights theory. The conclusion posits that what remains is a complicated and confused desegregation jurisprudence, and that the lines that separate desegregation from integration from diversity, if there ever were such lines, are blurring. A discussion of the theoretical premises underlying desegregation appears to continue to be necessary.