Official Airlines Assist Meeting Planners

Selecting an airline as the official one for a convention or meeting can save meeting planners time, money, and a lot of work. The author discusses ways in which airlines can work with conferences of all sizes.

Indirect Cost Factors In Menu Pricing

In the discussion - Indirect Cost Factors in Menu Pricing – by David V. Pavesic, Associate Professor, Hotel, Restaurant and Travel Administration at Georgia State University, Associate Professor Pavesic initially states: “Rational pricing methodologies have traditionally employed quantitative factors to mark up food and beverage or food and labor because these costs can be isolated and allocated to specific menu items. There are, however, a number of indirect costs that can influence the price charged because they provide added value to the customer or are affected by supply/demand factors. The author discusses these costs and factors that must be taken into account in pricing decisions. Professor Pavesic offers as a given that menu pricing should cover costs, return a profit, reflect a value for the customer, and in the long run, attract customers and market the establishment. “Prices that are too high will drive customers away, and prices that are too low will sacrifice profit,” Professor Pavesic puts it succinctly. To dovetail with this premise the author provides that although food costs measure markedly into menu pricing, other factors such as equipment utilization, popularity/demand, and marketing are but a few of the parenthetic factors also to be considered. “… there is no single method that can be used to mark up every item on any given restaurant menu. One must employ a combination of methodologies and theories,” says Professor Pavesic. “Therefore, when properly carried out, prices will reflect food cost percentages, individual and/or weighted contribution margins, price points, and desired check averages, as well as factors driven by intuition, competition, and demand.” Additionally, Professor Pavesic wants you to know that value, as opposed to maximizing revenue, should be a primary motivating factor when designing menu pricing. This philosophy does come with certain caveats, and he explains them to you. Generically speaking, Professor Pavesic says, “The market ultimately determines the price one can charge.” But, in fine-tuning that decree he further offers, “Lower prices do not automatically translate into value and bargain in the minds of the customers. Having the lowest prices in your market may not bring customers or profit. “Too often operators engage in price wars through discount promotions and find that profits fall and their image in the marketplace is lowered,” Professor Pavesic warns. In reference to intangibles that influence menu pricing, service is at the top of the list. Ambience, location, amenities, product [i.e. food] presentation, and price elasticity are discussed as well. Be aware of price-value perception; Professor Pavesic explains this concept to you. Professor Pavesic closes with a brief overview of a la carte pricing; its pros and cons.

Audit pricing, reporting quality, and auditor switches in the post -SOX period

The Sarbanes-Oxley Act represents an important watershed event in the history and regulation of the accounting profession. In this dissertation, I develop arguments as to why we can expect differences in auditor behavior before and after SOX and empirically test if indeed there were differences in auditor behavior before and after SOX. My dissertation consists of three essays. For the three essays, I investigate issues related to auditor independence, audit pricing, the impact of auditor changes in the post-SOX period. The motivation for the first part of my research comes from the SEC's assertions that there are differences between types of non-audit services in terms of their potential to adversely impact auditor independence. The first part of my dissertation empirically validates the SEC's assertions that auditors would be more conservative in those instances where the tax and other non-audit services fee ratios are high but not when the audit-related fee ratio is high. The second part of my study examines if auditors are less likely to "low ball" their audit fees in the period after SOX than in the period preceding SOX. Legislators, regulators, and the media have expressed concerns that auditors "low ball" the fees for initial year audits and that such low-balling can lead to reduced audit quality. I find that there is significant initial year audit fee discount in pre-SOX period and but the fee discount does not hold in post-SOX periods. The third part of my dissertation examines the association between auditor switches and auditor conservatism. I find that a large portion of Big 4 clients switch to non-Big 4 auditors and there is no significant evidence indicating that successor auditors are more conservative in the post-SOX period.

A Study of Stock Market Fluctuations and their Relations to Business Conditions

Most research on stock prices is based on the present value model or the more general consumption-based model. When applied to real economic data, both of them are found unable to account for both the stock price level and its volatility. Three essays here attempt to both build a more realistic model, and to check whether there is still room for bubbles in explaining fluctuations in stock prices. In the second chapter, several innovations are simultaneously incorporated into the traditional present value model in order to produce more accurate model-based fundamental prices. These innovations comprise replacing with broad dividends the more narrow traditional dividends that are more commonly used, a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting procedure for these broad dividends instead of the more common linear forecasting models for narrow traditional dividends, and a stochastic discount rate in place of the constant discount rate. Empirical results show that the model described above predicts fundamental prices better, compared with alternative models using linear forecasting process, narrow dividends, or a constant discount factor. Nonetheless, actual prices are still largely detached from fundamental prices. The bubble-like deviations are found to coincide with business cycles. The third chapter examines possible cointegration of stock prices with fundamentals and non-fundamentals. The output gap is introduced to form the non-fundamental part of stock prices. I use a trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model and a single equation model to run cointegration tests between these three variables. Neither of the cointegration tests shows strong evidence of explosive behavior in the DJIA and S&P 500 data. Then, I applied a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check for the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in stock prices. Such bubbles are found in S&P data during the late 1990s. Employing econometric tests from the third chapter, I continue in the fourth chapter to examine whether bubbles exist in stock prices of conventional economic sectors on the New York Stock Exchange. The ‘old economy’ as a whole is not found to have bubbles. But, periodically collapsing bubbles are found in Material and Telecommunication Services sectors, and the Real Estate industry group.

Essays in Macro Finance

I study the link between capital markets and sources of macroeconomic risk. In chapter 1 I show that expected inflation risk is priced in the cross section of stock returns even after controlling for cash flow growth and volatility risks. Motivated by this evidence I study a long run risk model with a built-in inflation non-neutrality channel that allows me to decompose the real stochastic discount factor into news about current and expected cash flow growth, news about expected inflation and news about volatility. The model can successfully price a broad menu of assets and provides a setting for analyzing cross sectional variation in expected inflation risk premium. For industries like retail and durable goods inflation risk can account for nearly a third of the overall risk premium while the energy industry and a broad commodity index act like inflation hedges. Nominal bonds are exposed to expected inflation risk and have inflation premiums that increase with bond maturity. The price of expected inflation risk was very high during the 70's and 80's, but has come down a lot since being very close to zero over the past decade. On average, the expected inflation price of risk is negative, consistent with the view that periods of high inflation represent a "bad" state of the world and are associated with low economic growth and poor stock market performance. In chapter 2 I look at the way capital markets react to predetermined macroeconomic announcements. I document significantly higher excess returns on the US stock market on macro release dates as compared to days when no macroeconomic news hit the market. Almost the entire equity premium since 1997 is being realized on days when macroeconomic news are released. At high frequency, there is a pattern of returns increasing in the hours prior to the pre-determined announcement time, peaking around the time of the announcement and dropping thereafter.

Innovation in the pharmaceutical industry: New estimates of R&D costs.

The research and development costs of 106 randomly selected new drugs were obtained from a survey of 10 pharmaceutical firms. These data were used to estimate the average pre-tax cost of new drug and biologics development. The costs of compounds abandoned during testing were linked to the costs of compounds that obtained marketing approval. The estimated average out-of-pocket cost per approved new compound is $1395 million (2013 dollars). Capitalizing out-of-pocket costs to the point of marketing approval at a real discount rate of 10.5% yields a total pre-approval cost estimate of $2558 million (2013 dollars). When compared to the results of the previous study in this series, total capitalized costs were shown to have increased at an annual rate of 8.5% above general price inflation. Adding an estimate of post-approval R&D costs increases the cost estimate to $2870 million (2013 dollars).

Cabazitaxel for Hormone-Relapsed Metastatic Prostate Cancer Previously Treated With a Docetaxel-Containing Regimen: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal

As part of its single technology appraisal (STA) process, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited the company that manufactures cabazitaxel (Jevtana(®), Sanofi, UK) to submit evidence for the clinical and cost effectiveness of cabazitaxel for treatment of patients with metastatic hormone-relapsed prostate cancer (mHRPC) previously treated with a docetaxel-containing regimen. The School of Health and Related Research Technology Appraisal Group at the University of Sheffield was commissioned to act as the independent Evidence Review Group (ERG). The ERG produced a critical review of the evidence for the clinical and cost effectiveness of the technology based upon the company's submission to NICE. Clinical evidence for cabazitaxel was derived from a multinational randomised open-label phase III trial (TROPIC) of cabazitaxel plus prednisone or prednisolone compared with mitoxantrone plus prednisone or prednisolone, which was assumed to represent best supportive care. The NICE final scope identified a further three comparators: abiraterone in combination with prednisone or prednisolone; enzalutamide; and radium-223 dichloride for the subgroup of people with bone metastasis only (no visceral metastasis). The company did not consider radium-223 dichloride to be a relevant comparator. Neither abiraterone nor enzalutamide has been directly compared in a trial with cabazitaxel. Instead, clinical evidence was synthesised within a network meta-analysis (NMA). Results from TROPIC showed that cabazitaxel was associated with a statistically significant improvement in both overall survival and progression-free survival compared with mitoxantrone. Results from a random-effects NMA, as conducted by the company and updated by the ERG, indicated that there was no statistically significant difference between the three active treatments for both overall survival and progression-free survival. Utility data were not collected as part of the TROPIC trial, and were instead taken from the company's UK early access programme. Evidence on resource use came from the TROPIC trial, supplemented by both expert clinical opinion and a UK clinical audit. List prices were used for mitoxantrone, abiraterone and enzalutamide as directed by NICE, although commercial in-confidence patient-access schemes (PASs) are in place for abiraterone and enzalutamide. The confidential PAS was used for cabazitaxel. Sequential use of the advanced hormonal therapies (abiraterone and enzalutamide) does not usually occur in clinical practice in the UK. Hence, cabazitaxel could be used within two pathways of care: either when an advanced hormonal therapy was used pre-docetaxel, or when one was used post-docetaxel. The company believed that the former pathway was more likely to represent standard National Health Service (NHS) practice, and so their main comparison was between cabazitaxel and mitoxantrone, with effectiveness data from the TROPIC trial. Results of the company's updated cost-effectiveness analysis estimated a probabilistic incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £45,982 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, which the committee considered to be the most plausible value for this comparison. Cabazitaxel was estimated to be both cheaper and more effective than abiraterone. Cabazitaxel was estimated to be cheaper but less effective than enzalutamide, resulting in an ICER of £212,038 per QALY gained for enzalutamide compared with cabazitaxel. The ERG noted that radium-223 is a valid comparator (for the indicated sub-group), and that it may be used in either of the two care pathways. Hence, its exclusion leads to uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness results. In addition, the company assumed that there would be no drug wastage when cabazitaxel was used, with cost-effectiveness results being sensitive to this assumption: modelling drug wastage increased the ICER comparing cabazitaxel with mitoxantrone to over £55,000 per QALY gained. The ERG updated the company's NMA and used a random effects model to perform a fully incremental analysis between cabazitaxel, abiraterone, enzalutamide and best supportive care using PASs for abiraterone and enzalutamide. Results showed that both cabazitaxel and abiraterone were extendedly dominated by the combination of best supportive care and enzalutamide. Preliminary guidance from the committee, which included wastage of cabazitaxel, did not recommend its use. In response, the company provided both a further discount to the confidential PAS for cabazitaxel and confirmation from NHS England that it is appropriate to supply and purchase cabazitaxel in pre-prepared intravenous-infusion bags, which would remove the cost of drug wastage. As a result, the committee recommended use of cabazitaxel as a treatment option in people with an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0 or 1 whose disease had progressed during or after treatment with at least 225 mg/m(2) of docetaxel, as long as it was provided at the discount agreed in the PAS and purchased in either pre-prepared intravenous-infusion bags or in vials at a reduced price to reflect the average per-patient drug wastage.

Living with Terminal Capitalization Rates: A Look at Real Estate Valuation Model Parameter Setting

This paper examines assumptions about future prices used in real estate applications of DCF models. We confirm both the widespread reliance on an ad hoc rule of increasing period-zero capitalization rates by 50 to 100 basis points to obtain terminal capitalization rates and the inability of the rule to project future real estate pricing. To understand how investors form expectations about future prices, we model the spread between the contemporaneously period-zero going-in and terminal capitalization rates and the spread between terminal rates assigned in period zero and going-in rates assigned in period N. Our regression results confirm statistical relationships between the terminal and next holding period going-in capitalization rate spread and the period-zero discount rate, although other economically significant variables are statistically insignificant. Linking terminal capitalization rates by assumption to going-in capitalization rates implies investors view future real estate pricing with myopic expectations. We discuss alternative specifications devoid of such linkage that align more with a rational expectations view of future real estate pricing.

Repositioning a Multifamily Asset

Multifamily investments, particularly value-added strategies, have been of keen interest to real estate investors for years now. Successful execution of a multifamily investment offers excellent risk-adjusted returns when compared to other classes of real estate such as industrial, retail, and office. From a volatility standpoint, multifamily enjoys relatively stable long-term cash flows with less downside risk during periods of recession due to stable tenancy in most major markets. The stability during downturns is also supported by the fact that recessions tend to make renters out of owners, increasing demand for apartments.

Three essays on investment in human capital in Canada

Cette thèse examine l’investissement en capital humain au Canada en s’intéressant à la contribution de l’aide financière aux études, aux effets de la fiscalité, à la rentabilité de l’investissement en éducation postsécondaire et à la redistribution des revenus. Elle est subdivisée en cinq chapitres. Le premier chapitre présente une révue chronologique des études microéconomiques sur l’investissement en capital humain. Il présente également une synthèse des études canadiennes sur l’investissement en capital humain en insistant sur les limites portant essentiellement sur la non prise en compte de l’hétérogénéité des systèmes de prêts et bourses et des systèmes fiscaux à travers les provinces canadiennes et la faible analyse de la répartition des coûts et bénéfices de l’investissement en éducation au Canada. Le second chapitre présente la méthodologie de mesure des rendements de l’éducation et des gains issus des investissements en éducation. Il décrit les données utilisées et les résultats des régressions économetriques. Finalement, le chapitre présente SIMAID, un calculateur d’aide financière aux études élaboré pour les objectifs dans cette thèse et qui permet d’estimer le montant de l’aide financière devant être attribuée à chaque étudiant en fonction de ses caractéristiques personnelles et de celles de sa famille. Dans sa première section, le troisième chapitre présente les rendements sociaux, privés et publics de l’éducation et montre que les rendements de l’éducation varient selon les provinces, les filières de formation, le genre et les cohortes d’année de naissance et décroient avec le niveau d’éducation. Dans sa seconde section, le chapitre montre que l’aide financière aux études accroît le rendement des études du baccalauréat de 24.3% et 9.5% respectivement au Québec et en Ontario. Finalement, le chapitre indique qu’un changement du système d’aide financière aux études de Québec par celui de l’Ontario entraîne une baisse de 11.9% du rendement des études au baccalauréat alors qu’un changement du système fiscal québécois par celui ontarien entraine une hausse du rendement du baccalauréat de 4.5%. L’effet combiné du changement des systèmes d’aide financière et fiscal est une baisse du rendement du baccalauréat de 7.4%. Le quatrième chapitre fournit une décomposition comptable détaillée des gains sociaux, privés et publics des investissements en éducation. Le gain social de l’investissement au baccalauréat est de $738 384 au Québec et de $685 437 en Ontario. Ce gain varie selon les filières de formation avec un niveau minimal pour les études humanitaires et un niveau maximal pour les études en ingénierie. Le chapitre montre également que la répartition des bénéfices et des coûts de l’investissement en éducation entre les individus et le gouvernement est plus équitable en Ontario qu’à Québec. En effet, un individu qui investit à Québec supporte 51.6% du coût total et engrange 64.8% des gains alors que le même individu supporterait 62.9% des coûts sociaux et engrangerait 62.2% des gains en Ontario. Finalement, le cinquième chapitre présente et analyse les effets rédistributifs des transferts et des taxes suite à un investissement en éducation. Il examine aussi si l’aide financière aux études est effectivement allouée aux personnes les plus pauvres. L’argument selon lequel l’aide financière est destinée aux plus pauvres est rejeté en analysant la distribution du revenu permanent. En effet, il ressort que 79% des personnes bénéficiant de l’aide financière aux études se trouvent dans le cinquième quintile de la distribution des revenus permanents. Le chapitre montre également que l’investissement en éducation impacte positivement les effets rédistributifs en 2006, 2001 et 1996 et négativement en 1991 et 2011. L’impact est également perceptible sur les composantes de l’effet rédistributif. Toutefois, la sensibilité de l’impact au taux d’actualisation dépend de l’indice utilisé dans l’analyse.

AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE ADDITION OF BEVACIZUMAB TO STANDARD CHEMOTHERAPY IN PATIENTS WITH MALIGNANT PLEURAL MESOTHELIOMA

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Essays on Omnichannel Sale

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

A Game of Horns: Transnational Flows of Rhino Horn

A multi-sectorial regime of protection including international treaties, conservation and security measures, demand reduction campaigns and quasi-military interventions has been established to protect rhinos. Despite these efforts, the poaching of rhinos and trafficking of rhino horn continue unabated. This dissertation asks why the illegal market in rhinoceros horn is so resilient in spite of the myriad measures employed to disrupt it. A theoretical approach grounded in the sociology of markets is applied to explain the structure and functioning of the illegal market. The project follows flows of rhino horn from the source in southern Africa to illegal markets in Southeast Asia. The multi-sited ethnography included participant observations, interviews and focus groups with 416 informants during fourteen months of fieldwork. The sample comprised of, amongst others, convicted and active rhino poachers, smugglers and kingpins, private rhino breeders and hunting outfitters, African and Asian law enforcement officials, as well as affected local communities and Asian consumers. Court files, CITES trade data, archival materials, newspaper reports and social media posts were also analysed to supplement findings and to verify and triangulate data from interviews, focus groups and observations. Central to the analysis is the concept of “contested illegality”, a legitimization mechanism employed by market participants along the different segments of the horn supply chain. These actors' implicit or explicit contestation of the state-sponsored label of illegality serves as a legitimising and enabling mechanism, facilitating participation in gray or illegal markets for rhino horn. The research identified fluid interfaces between legal, illegal and gray markets, with recurring actors who have access to transnational trade structures, and who also possess market and product knowledge, as well as information about the regulatory regime and its loopholes. It is against the background of colonial, apartheid and neoliberal exploitation and marginalization of local communities that a second argument is introduced: the path dependency of conservation paradigms. Underpinning rhino conservation and regulation are archaic and elitist conservation regimes that discount the potential for harmonious relationships between local communities and wildlife. The increasing militarization of anti-poaching measures and green land grabs are exacerbating the rhino problem by alienating communities further from conservation areas and wild animals. The third argument looks at how actors deal with coordination problems in transnational illegal markets. Resolving the coordination problems of cooperation, value and competition are considered essential to the operation of formal markets. It is argued that the problem of security provides an additional and crucial obstacle to actors transacting in markets. The systematic analysis of flows between the researched sites of production, distribution and consumption of rhino horn shows that the social embeddedness of actors facilitates the flourishing of illegal markets in ways that escape an effective enforcement of CITES regulations.

Timing ótimo para investir na proteção costeira na zona centro de Portugal

A presente dissertação insere-se no âmbito da gestão das zonas costeiras, que na atualidade enfrentam um grave problema de erosão. Este torna-se um problema social com especial importância devido à concentração populacional e atividade económica que se verifica nas regiões litorais. Neste contexto muitos têm sido os estudos físicos e económicos levados a cabo no sentido de encontrar soluções para lidar com este problema. O principal objetivo desta dissertação foi avaliar qual a importância que o timing em que é efetuado o investimento na proteção pode ter na defesa das zonas costeiras. Por outras palavras, perceber se existem ou não vantagens em adiar o investimento na proteção por um determinado período de tempo. Foi definida como área de estudo o trecho costeiro de 20 km compreendido entre a Praia da Barra (Aveiro) e a Praia de Mira (Coimbra). Através da utilização do modelo numérico Long-Term Configuration (LTC) foi simulada a evolução da linha de costa por um período de 80 anos, seguida de uma análise custo-benefício ambiental em que foi considerada a possibilidade de investimentos em estruturas de defesa (no caso desta dissertação esporões com 100m, 200m e 300m de comprimento) a serem efetuados após 0, 10, 20 ou 30 anos. Foram também contempladas restrições orçamentais, e ainda, efetuada uma análise de sensibilidade à taxa de desconto utilizada. Os resultados mostram que quanto mais cedo se iniciar proteção das zonas costeiras, mais benefícios económicos serão retirados desse investimento. Os cenários que se apresentaram como os mais vantajosos são aqueles em que o investimento é levado a cabo no Ano 0 e onde se opta por uma proteção integral ou quase integral da linha de costa. Ainda assim, em todos os timings de investimento analisados foi possível encontrar cenários economicamente viáveis e dos quais resultariam benefícios económicos. A análise com inclusão de restrições orçamentais mostra que a utilização destas deixa de fazer sentido à medida que o investimento é adiado, funcionando então o próprio retardar do investimento como uma medida de contenção orçamental. A análise de sensibilidade à taxa de desconto revelou que a opção por uma taxa de desconto de 4% acaba por não influenciar de maneira significativa os resultados obtidos.

There exists circularity between WACC and value? Another solution.

Although we know there exists a simple approach to solve the circularity between value and the discount rate, known as the Adjusted Present Value proposed by Myers, 1974, it seems that practitioners still rely on the traditional Weighted Average Cost of Capital, WACC approach of weighting the cost of debt, Kd and the cost of equity, Ke and discounting the Free Cash Flow, FCF. We show how to solve circularity when calculating value with the free cash flow, FCF and the WACC. As a result of the solution we arrive at a known solution when we assume the discount rate of the tax equity: the capital cash flow, CCF discounted at Ku. When assuming Kd as the discount rate for the tax savings, we find an expression for calculating value that does not implies circularity. We do this for a single period and for N periods.