Improving reporting of uncertainties in sea level rise assessments

Sea level rise (SLR) assessments are commonly used to identify the extent that coastal populations are at risk to flooding. However, the data and assumptions used to develop these assessments contain numerous sources and types of uncertainty, which limit confidence in the accuracy of modeled results. This study illustrates how the intersection of uncertainty in digital elevation models (DEMs) and SLR lead to a wide range of modeled outcomes. SLR assessments are then reviewed to identify the extent that uncertainty is documented in peer-reviewed articles. The paper concludes by discussing priorities needed to further understand SLR impacts. (PDF contains 4 pages)

On the Role of Delays in Biological Systems : Analysis and Design

This work quantifies the nature of delays in genetic regulatory networks and their effect on system dynamics. It is known that a time lag can emerge from a sequence of biochemical reactions. Applying this modeling framework to the protein production processes, delay distributions are derived in a stochastic (probability density function) and deterministic setting (impulse function), whilst being shown to be equivalent under different assumptions. The dependence of the distribution properties on rate constants, gene length, and time-varying temperatures is investigated. Overall, the distribution of the delay in the context of protein production processes is shown to be highly dependent on the size of the genes and mRNA strands as well as the reaction rates. Results suggest longer genes have delay distributions with a smaller relative variance, and hence, less uncertainty in the completion times, however, they lead to larger delays. On the other hand large uncertainties may actually play a positive role, as broader distributions can lead to larger stability regions when this formalization of the protein production delays is incorporated into a feedback system.

Furthermore, evidence suggests that delays may play a role as an explicit design into existing controlling mechanisms. Accordingly, the reccurring dual-feedback motif is also investigated with delays incorporated into the feedback channels. The dual-delayed feedback is shown to have stabilizing effects through a control theoretic approach. Lastly, a distributed delay based controller design method is proposed as a potential design tool. In a preliminary study, the dual-delayed feedback system re-emerges as an effective controller design.

The E2F2 Transcription Factor Sustains Hepatic Glycerophospholipid Homeostasis in Mice

Increasing evidence links metabolic signals to cell proliferation, but the molecular wiring that connects the two core machineries remains largely unknown. E2Fs are master regulators of cellular proliferation. We have recently shown that E2F2 activity facilitates the completion of liver regeneration after partial hepatectomy (PH) by regulating the expression of genes required for S-phase entry. Our study also revealed that E2F2 determines the duration of hepatectomy-induced hepatic steatosis. A transcriptomic analysis of normal adult liver identified "lipid metabolism regulation" as a major E2F2 functional target, suggesting that E2F2 has a role in lipid homeostasis. Here we use wild-type (E2F2(+/+)) and E2F2 deficient (E2F2(-/-)) mice to investigate the in vivo role of E2F2 in the composition of liver lipids and fatty acids in two metabolically different contexts: quiescence and 48-h post-PH, when cellular proliferation and anabolic demands are maximal. We show that liver regeneration is accompanied by large triglyceride and protein increases without changes in total phospholipids both in E2F2(+/+) and E2F2(-/-) mice. Remarkably, we found that the phenotype of quiescent liver tissue from E2F2(-/-) mice resembles the phenotype of proliferating E2F2(+/+) liver tissue, characterized by a decreased phosphatidylcholine to phosphatidylethanolamine ratio and a reprogramming of genes involved in generation of choline and ethanolamine derivatives. The diversity of fatty acids in total lipid, triglycerides and phospholipids was essentially preserved on E2F2 loss both in proliferating and non-proliferating liver tissue, although notable exceptions in inflammation-related fatty acids of defined phospholipid classes were detected. Overall, our results indicate that E2F2 activity sustains the hepatic homeostasis of major membrane glycerolipid components while it is dispensable for storage glycerolipid balance.

A-SCALA: an age-structured statistical catch-at-length analysis for assessing tuna stocks in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean

English: We describe an age-structured statistical catch-at-length analysis (A-SCALA) based on the MULTIFAN-CL model of Fournier et al. (1998). The analysis is applied independently to both the yellowfin and the bigeye tuna populations of the eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO). We model the populations from 1975 to 1999, based on quarterly time steps. Only a single stock for each species is assumed for each analysis, but multiple fisheries that are spatially separate are modeled to allow for spatial differences in catchability and selectivity. The analysis allows for error in the effort-fishing mortality relationship, temporal trends in catchability, temporal variation in recruitment, relationships between the environment and recruitment and between the environment and catchability, and differences in selectivity and catchability among fisheries. The model is fit to total catch data and proportional catch-at-length data conditioned on effort. The A-SCALA method is a statistical approach, and therefore recognizes that the data collected from the fishery do not perfectly represent the population. Also, there is uncertainty in our knowledge about the dynamics of the system and uncertainty about how the observed data relate to the real population. The use of likelihood functions allow us to model the uncertainty in the data collected from the population, and the inclusion of estimable process error allows us to model the uncertainties in the dynamics of the system. The statistical approach allows for the calculation of confidence intervals and the testing of hypotheses. We use a Bayesian version of the maximum likelihood framework that includes distributional constraints on temporal variation in recruitment, the effort-fishing mortality relationship, and catchability. Curvature penalties for selectivity parameters and penalties on extreme fishing mortality rates are also included in the objective function. The mode of the joint posterior distribution is used as an estimate of the model parameters. Confidence intervals are calculated using the normal approximation method. It should be noted that the estimation method includes constraints and priors and therefore the confidence intervals are different from traditionally calculated confidence intervals. Management reference points are calculated, and forward projections are carried out to provide advice for making management decisions for the yellowfin and bigeye populations. Spanish: Describimos un análisis estadístico de captura a talla estructurado por edad, A-SCALA (del inglés age-structured statistical catch-at-length analysis), basado en el modelo MULTIFAN- CL de Fournier et al. (1998). Se aplica el análisis independientemente a las poblaciones de atunes aleta amarilla y patudo del Océano Pacífico oriental (OPO). Modelamos las poblaciones de 1975 a 1999, en pasos trimestrales. Se supone solamente una sola población para cada especie para cada análisis, pero se modelan pesquerías múltiples espacialmente separadas para tomar en cuenta diferencias espaciales en la capturabilidad y selectividad. El análisis toma en cuenta error en la relación esfuerzo-mortalidad por pesca, tendencias temporales en la capturabilidad, variación temporal en el reclutamiento, relaciones entre el medio ambiente y el reclutamiento y entre el medio ambiente y la capturabilidad, y diferencias en selectividad y capturabilidad entre pesquerías. Se ajusta el modelo a datos de captura total y a datos de captura a talla proporcional condicionados sobre esfuerzo. El método A-SCALA es un enfoque estadístico, y reconoce por lo tanto que los datos obtenidos de la pesca no representan la población perfectamente. Además, hay incertidumbre en nuestros conocimientos de la dinámica del sistema e incertidumbre sobre la relación entre los datos observados y la población real. El uso de funciones de verosimilitud nos permite modelar la incertidumbre en los datos obtenidos de la población, y la inclusión de un error de proceso estimable nos permite modelar las incertidumbres en la dinámica del sistema. El enfoque estadístico permite calcular intervalos de confianza y comprobar hipótesis. Usamos una versión bayesiana del marco de verosimilitud máxima que incluye constreñimientos distribucionales sobre la variación temporal en el reclutamiento, la relación esfuerzo-mortalidad por pesca, y la capturabilidad. Se incluyen también en la función objetivo penalidades por curvatura para los parámetros de selectividad y penalidades por tasas extremas de mortalidad por pesca. Se usa la moda de la distribución posterior conjunta como estimación de los parámetros del modelo. Se calculan los intervalos de confianza usando el método de aproximación normal. Cabe destacar que el método de estimación incluye constreñimientos y distribuciones previas y por lo tanto los intervalos de confianza son diferentes de los intervalos de confianza calculados de forma tradicional. Se calculan puntos de referencia para el ordenamiento, y se realizan proyecciones a futuro para asesorar la toma de decisiones para el ordenamiento de las poblaciones de aleta amarilla y patudo.

Valuation of Wind Energy Projects: A Real Options Approach

We address the valuation of an operating wind farm and the finite-lived option to invest in it under different reward/support schemes: a constant feed-in tariff, a premium on top of the electricity market price (either a fixed premium or a variable subsidy such as a renewable obligation certificate or ROC), and a transitory subsidy, among others. Futures contracts on electricity with ever longer maturities enable market-based valuations to be undertaken. The model considers up to three sources of uncertainty: the electricity price, the level of wind generation, and the certificate (ROC) price where appropriate. When analytical solutions are lacking, we resort to a trinomial lattice combined with Monte Carlo simulation; we also use a two-dimensional binomial lattice when uncertainty in the ROC price is considered. Our data set refers to the UK. The numerical results show the impact of several factors involved in the decision to invest: the subsidy per MWh generated, the initial lump-sum subsidy, the maturity of the investment option, and electricity price volatility. Different combinations of variables can help bring forward investments in wind generation. One-off policies, e.g., a transitory initial subsidy, seem to have a stronger effect than a fixed premium per MWh produced.

Analysis of sex-specific spawning biomass per recruit of the sailfish (Istiophorus platypterus) in the waters off eastern Taiwan

Analyses of sex-specific yield per recruit and spawning stock biomass per recruit were conducted to evaluate the current status of the sailfish (Istiophorus platypterus) fishery in the waters off eastern Taiwan. Natural mortality rates estimated from Pauly’s empirical equation were 0.26/yr for females and 0.27/yr for males. The current fishing mortality rates were estimated as 0.24/yr and 0.43/yr for females and males, respectively, which are much lower than the estimated F0 .1 (0.62/yr and 0.79/yr for females and males, respectively) and FSSB40 (0.46/yr for females) which are commonly used as target reference points in fisheries management. The effects of the fishing mortality, natural mortality, and age at first capture on the estimates of biological reference points were evaluated by using the Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicate that failure to consider the uncertainty in parameters such as natural mortality or age at first capture may lead to the improper estimation of biological reference points. This study indicates the possibility of current fishing mortality exceeding the target biological reference points may be negligible for sailfish in the waters off eastern Taiwan. However, in view of the recent rapid increase in fishing effort, it is evident that the stock status and development of the fishery need to be closely monitore

Morphometric differentiation in small juveniles of the pink spotted shrimp (Farfantepenaeus brasiliensis) and the southern pink shrimp (F. notialis) in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

The morphometric and morphological characters of the rostrum have been widely used to identify penaeid shrimp species (Heales et al., 1985; Dall et al., 1990; Pendrey et al., 1999). In this setting, one of the constraints in studies of penaeid shrimp populations has been the uncertainty in the identification of early life history stages, especially in coastal nursery habitats, where recruits and juveniles dominate the population (Dall et al., 1990; Pérez-Castañeda and Defeo, 2001). In the western Atlantic Ocean, Pérez-Farfante (1969, 1970, 1971a) described diagnostic characters of the genus Farfantepenaeus that allowed identification of individuals in the range of 8−20 mm CL (carapace length) on the basis of the following morphological features: 1) changes in the structure of the petasma and thelycum; 2) absence or presence of distomarginal spines in the ventral costa of the petasma; 3) the ratio between the keel height and the sulcus width of the sixth abdominal somite; 4) the shape and position of the rostrum with respect to the segments and flagellum of the antennule; and 5) the ratio between rostrum length (RL) and carapace length (RL/CL). In addition, she classified Farfantepenaeus into two groups according to the shape and position of the rostrum with respect to the segments and flagellum of the antennule and the ratio RL/CL: 1) F. duorarum and F. notialis: short rostrum, straight distally, and the proximodorsal margin convex, usually extending anteriorly to the end of distal antennular segment, sometimes reaching to proximal one-fourth of broadened portion of lateral antennular flagellum, with RL/CL <0.75; and 2) F. aztecus, F. brasiliensis, F. paulensis, and F. subtilis: long rostrum, usually almost straight along the entire length, extending anteriorly beyond the distal antennular segment, sometimes reaching to the distal one-third of broadened portion of lateral antennular flagellum, with RL/CL >0.80. Pérez-Farfante stressed that, for the recognition to species level of juveniles <10 mm CL, all the characters listed above should be considered because occasionally one alone may not prove to be diagnostic. However, the only characters that could be distinguished for small juveniles in the range 4−8 mm CL are those defined on the rostrum. Therefore, it has been almost impossible to identify and separate small specimens of Farfantepenaeus (Pérez-Farfante, 1970, 1971a; Pérez-Farfante and Kensley, 1997).

The Status of the United States Population of Night Shark, Carcharhinus signatus

Night sharks, Carcharhinus signatus, are an oceanic species generally occurring in outer continental shelf waters in the western North Atlantic Ocean including the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Although not targeted, night sharks make up a segment of the shark bycatch in the pelagic longline fishery. Historically, night sharks comprised a significant proportion of the artisanal Cuban shark fishery but today they are rarely caught. Although information from some fisheries has shown a decline in catches of night sharks, it is unclear whether this decline is due to changes in fishing tactics, market, or species identification. Despite the uncertainty in the decline, the night shark is currently listed as a species of concern due to alleged declines in abundance resulting from fishing effort, i.e. overutilization. To assess their relevance to the species of concern list, we collated available information on the night shark to provide an analysis of its status. Night shark landings were likely both over- and under-reported and thus probably did not reflect all commercial and recreational catches, and overall they have limited relevance to the current status of the species. Average size information has not changed considerably since the 1980’s based on information from the pelagic longline fishery when corrected for gear bias. Analysis of biological information indicates night sharks have intrinsic rates of increase (r) about 10% yr–1 and have moderate rebound potential and an intermediate generation time compared to other sharks. An analysis of trends in relative abundance from four data sources gave conflicting results, with one series in decline, two series increasing, and one series relatively flat. Based on the analysis of all currently available information, we believe the night shark does not qualify as a species of concern but should be retained on the prohibited species list as a precautionary approach to management until a more comprehensive stock assessment can be conducted.

Risk-sensitivity in sensorimotor control.

Recent advances in theoretical neuroscience suggest that motor control can be considered as a continuous decision-making process in which uncertainty plays a key role. Decision-makers can be risk-sensitive with respect to this uncertainty in that they may not only consider the average payoff of an outcome, but also consider the variability of the payoffs. Although such risk-sensitivity is a well-established phenomenon in psychology and economics, it has been much less studied in motor control. In fact, leading theories of motor control, such as optimal feedback control, assume that motor behaviors can be explained as the optimization of a given expected payoff or cost. Here we review evidence that humans exhibit risk-sensitivity in their motor behaviors, thereby demonstrating sensitivity to the variability of "motor costs." Furthermore, we discuss how risk-sensitivity can be incorporated into optimal feedback control models of motor control. We conclude that risk-sensitivity is an important concept in understanding individual motor behavior under uncertainty.

Risk-sensitive optimal feedback control accounts for sensorimotor behavior under uncertainty.

Many aspects of human motor behavior can be understood using optimality principles such as optimal feedback control. However, these proposed optimal control models are risk-neutral; that is, they are indifferent to the variability of the movement cost. Here, we propose the use of a risk-sensitive optimal controller that incorporates movement cost variance either as an added cost (risk-averse controller) or as an added value (risk-seeking controller) to model human motor behavior in the face of uncertainty. We use a sensorimotor task to test the hypothesis that subjects are risk-sensitive. Subjects controlled a virtual ball undergoing Brownian motion towards a target. Subjects were required to minimize an explicit cost, in points, that was a combination of the final positional error of the ball and the integrated control cost. By testing subjects on different levels of Brownian motion noise and relative weighting of the position and control cost, we could distinguish between risk-sensitive and risk-neutral control. We show that subjects change their movement strategy pessimistically in the face of increased uncertainty in accord with the predictions of a risk-averse optimal controller. Our results suggest that risk-sensitivity is a fundamental attribute that needs to be incorporated into optimal feedback control models.

Quantifying annual variation in catchability for commercial and research fishing

Biomass indices, from commercial catch per unit of effort (CPUE) or random trawl surveys, are commonly used in fisheries stock assessments. Uncertainty in such indices, often ex-pressed as a coefficient of variation (CV), has two components: observation error, and annual variation in catchability. Only the former can be estimated directly. As a result, the CVs used for these indices either ignore the annual-variation component or assume a value for it (often implicitly). Two types of data for New Zealand stocks were examined: 48 sets of residuals and catchability estimates from stock assessments using either CPUE or trawl survey indices; and biomass estimates from 17 time series of trawl surveys with between 4 and 25 species per time series. These data show clear evidence of significant annual variation in catchability. With the trawl survey data, catchability was detectably extreme for many species in about one year in six. The assessment data suggest that this annual variability typically has a CV of about 0.2. For commercial CPUE the variability is slightly less, and a typical total CV (including both components) of 0.15 to 0.2. This is much less than the values of 0.3 to 0.35 that have commonly been assumed in New Zealand. Some estimates of catchability are shown to be implausible.

Risk-sensitive optimal feedback control accounts for sensorimotor behavior under uncertainty

Many aspects of human motor behavior can be understood using optimality principles such as optimal feedback control. However, these proposed optimal control models are risk-neutral; that is, they are indifferent to the variability of the movement cost. Here, we propose the use of a risk-sensitive optimal controller that incorporates movement cost variance either as an added cost (risk-averse controller) or as an added value (risk-seeking controller) to model human motor behavior in the face of uncertainty. We use a sensorimotor task to test the hypothesis that subjects are risk-sensitive. Subjects controlled a virtual ball undergoing Brownian motion towards a target. Subjects were required to minimize an explicit cost, in points, that was a combination of the final positional error of the ball and the integrated control cost. By testing subjects on different levels of Brownian motion noise and relative weighting of the position and control cost, we could distinguish between risk-sensitive and risk-neutral control. We show that subjects change their movement strategy pessimistically in the face of increased uncertainty in accord with the predictions of a risk-averse optimal controller. Our results suggest that risk-sensitivity is a fundamental attribute that needs to be incorporated into optimal feedback control models. © 2010 Nagengast et al.