Amazon forest biomass density maps: tackling the uncertainty in carbon emission estimates

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Quantum coherence and uncertainty in the anisotropic XY chain

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A note on model uncertainty in linear regression

We consider model selection uncertainty in linear regression. We study theoretically and by simulation the approach of Buckland and co-workers, who proposed estimating a parameter common to all models under study by taking a weighted average over the models, using weights obtained from information criteria or the bootstrap. This approach is compared with the usual approach in which the 'best' model is used, and with Bayesian model averaging. The weighted predictor behaves similarly to model averaging, with generally more realistic mean-squared errors than the usual model-selection-based estimator.

A Time-domain Harmonic Power-Flow Analysis in Electrical Energy Distribution Networks, Using Norton Models for Non-linear Loading

The purpose of this paper is to present the application of a three-phase harmonic propagation analysis time-domain tool, using the Norton model to approach the modeling of non-linear loads, making the harmonics currents flow more appropriate to the operation analysis and to the influence of mitigation elements analysis. This software makes it possible to obtain results closer to the real distribution network, considering voltages unbalances, currents imbalances and the application of mitigation elements for harmonic distortions. In this scenario, a real case study with network data and equipments connected to the network will be presented, as well as the modeling of non-linear loads based on real data obtained from some PCCs (Points of Common Coupling) of interests for a distribution company.

Isosinglet neutral heavy lepton production in high energy e-γ collisions

We evaluate the potential for searching for isosinglet neutral heavy leptons (N), such as right-handed neutrinos, in the next generation of e+e- linear colliders, paying special attention to contributions from the reaction γe→WN initiated by photons from beamstrahlung and laser back-scattering. We find that these mechanisms are both competitive and complementary to the standard e+e-→vN annihilation process for producing neutral heavy leptons in these machines and greatly extends the search range over HERA and LEP200.

Accounting for uncertainty in ecological analysis: the strengths and limitations of hierarchical statistical modeling

Analyses of ecological data should account for the uncertainty in the process(es) that generated the data. However, accounting for these uncertainties is a difficult task, since ecology is known for its complexity. Measurement and/or process errors are often the only sources of uncertainty modeled when addressing complex ecological problems, yet analyses should also account for uncertainty in sampling design, in model specification, in parameters governing the specified model, and in initial and boundary conditions. Only then can we be confident in the scientific inferences and forecasts made from an analysis. Probability and statistics provide a framework that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty. Given the complexities of ecological studies, the hierarchical statistical model is an invaluable tool. This approach is not new in ecology, and there are many examples (both Bayesian and non-Bayesian) in the literature illustrating the benefits of this approach. In this article, we provide a baseline for concepts, notation, and methods, from which discussion on hierarchical statistical modeling in ecology can proceed. We have also planted some seeds for discussion and tried to show where the practical difficulties lie. Our thesis is that hierarchical statistical modeling is a powerful way of approaching ecological analysis in the presence of inevitable but quantifiable uncertainties, even if practical issues sometimes require pragmatic compromises.

Seeking a Second Opinion: Uncertainty in Disease Ecology

Analytical methods accounting for imperfect detection are often used to facilitate reliable inference in population and community ecology. We contend that similar approaches are needed in disease ecology because these complicated systems are inherently difficult to observe without error. For example, wildlife disease studies often designate individuals, populations, or spatial units to states (e.g., susceptible, infected, post-infected), but the uncertainty associated with these state assignments remains largely ignored or unaccounted for. We demonstrate how recent developments incorporating observation error through repeated sampling extend quite naturally to hierarchical spatial models of disease effects, prevalence, and dynamics in natural systems. A highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza virus in migratory waterfowl and a pathogenic fungus recently implicated in the global loss of amphibian biodiversity are used as motivating examples. Both show that relatively simple modifications to study designs can greatly improve our understanding of complex spatio-temporal disease dynamics by rigorously accounting for uncertainty at each level of the hierarchy.

Looming Changes in the Energy Economy

Over the next decade or two, the energy sector on which the world economy is based will undergo significant transformations. The fossil fuels on which the industrial revolution was built are on their way out. Nebraskans will face higher energy prices, but they will also produce more energy.

Spectral fluctuation and 1/f(alpha) noise in the energy level statistics of interacting trapped bosons

It has been recently shown numerically that the transition from integrability to chaos in quantum systems and the corresponding spectral fluctuations are characterized by 1/f(alpha) noise with 1 <= alpha <= 2. The system of interacting trapped bosons is inhomogeneous and complex. The presence of an external harmonic trap makes it more interesting as, in the atomic trap, the bosons occupy partly degenerate single-particle states. Earlier theoretical and experimental results show that at zero temperature the low-lying levels are of a collective nature and high-lying excitations are of a single-particle nature. We observe that for few bosons, the P(s) distribution shows the Shnirelman peak, which exhibits a large number of quasidegenerate states. For a large number of bosons the low-lying levels are strongly affected by the interatomic interaction, and the corresponding level fluctuation shows a transition to a Wigner distribution with an increase in particle number. It does not follow Gaussian orthogonal ensemble random matrix predictions. For high-lying levels we observe the uncorrelated Poisson distribution. Thus it may be a very realistic system to prove that 1/f(alpha) noise is ubiquitous in nature.

Impairment of the hematological response and interleukin-1β production in protein-energy malnourished mice after endotoxemia with lipopolysaccharide

The objectives of this study were to determine if protein-energy malnutrition (PEM) could affect the hematologic response to lipopolysaccharide (LPS), the interleukin-1β (IL-1β) production, leukocyte migration, and blood leukocyte expression of CD11a/CD18. Two-month-old male Swiss mice were submitted to PEM (N = 30) with a low-protein diet (14 days) containing 4% protein, compared to 20% protein in the control group (N = 30). The total cellularity of blood, bone marrow, spleen, and bronchoalveolar lavage evaluated after the LPS stimulus indicated reduced number of total cells in all compartments studied and different kinetics of migration in malnourished animals. The in vitro migration assay showed reduced capacity of migration after the LPS stimulus in malnourished animals (45.7 ± 17.2 x 10(4) cells/mL) compared to control (69.6 ± 7.1 x 10(4) cells/mL, P ≤ 0.05), but there was no difference in CD11a/CD18 expression on the surface of blood leukocytes. In addition, the production of IL-1β in vivo after the LPS stimulus (180.7 pg·h-1·mL-1), and in vitro by bone marrow and spleen cells (41.6 ± 15.0 and 8.3 ± 4.0 pg/mL) was significantly lower in malnourished animals compared to control (591.1 pg·h-1·mL-1, 67.0 ± 23.0 and 17.5 ± 8.0 pg/mL, respectively, P ≤ 0.05). The reduced expression of IL-1β, together with the lower number of leukocytes in the central and peripheral compartments, different leukocyte kinetics, and reduced leukocyte migration capacity are factors that interfere with the capacity to mount an adequate immune response, being partly responsible for the immunodeficiency observed in PEM.

The uncertainty in standardised sound power measurements: complying with ISO 17025

In the context of “testing laboratory” one of the most important aspect to deal with is the measurement result. Whenever decisions are based on measurement results, it is important to have some indication of the quality of the results. In every area concerning with noise measurement many standards are available but without an expression of uncertainty, it is impossible to judge whether two results are in compliance or not. ISO/IEC 17025 is an international standard related with the competence of calibration and testing laboratories. It contains the requirements that testing and calibration laboratories have to meet if they wish to demonstrate that they operate to a quality system, are technically competent and are able to generate technically valid results. ISO/IEC 17025 deals specifically with the requirements for the competence of laboratories performing testing and calibration and for the reporting of the results, which may or may not contain opinions and interpretations of the results. The standard requires appropriate methods of analysis to be used for estimating uncertainty of measurement. In this point of view, for a testing laboratory performing sound power measurement according to specific ISO standards and European Directives, the measurement of uncertainties is the most important factor to deal with. Sound power level measurement, according to ISO 3744:1994 , performed with a limited number of microphones distributed over a surface enveloping a source is affected by a certain systematic error and a related standard deviation. Making a comparison of measurement carried out with different microphone arrays is difficult because results are affected by systematic errors and standard deviation that are peculiarities of the number of microphones disposed on the surface, their spatial position and the complexity of the sound field. A statistical approach could give an overview of the difference between sound power level evaluated with different microphone arrays and an evaluation of errors that afflict this kind of measurement. Despite the classical approach that tend to follow the ISO GUM this thesis present a different point of view of the problem related to the comparison of result obtained from different microphone arrays.

Copper(I) phenanthroline complexes and supramolecular systems containing fullerenes: Photophysics, photochemistry and potential applications in sustainable energy technologies.

Chemistry can contribute, in many different ways to solve the challenges we are facing to modify our inefficient and fossil-fuel based energy system. The present work was motivated by the search for efficient photoactive materials to be employed in the context of the energy problem: materials to be utilized in energy efficient devices and in the production of renewable electricity and fuels. We presented a new class of copper complexes, that could find application in lighting techhnologies, by serving as luminescent materials in LEC, OLED, WOLED devices. These technologies may provide substantial energy savings in the lighting sector. Moreover, recently, copper complexes have been used as light harvesting compounds in dye sensitized photoelectrochemical solar cells, which offer a viable alternative to silicon-based photovoltaic technologies. We presented also a few supramolecular systems containing fullerene, e.g. dendrimers, dyads and triads.The most complex among these arrays, which contain porphyrin moieties, are presented in the final chapter. They undergo photoinduced energy- and electron transfer processes also with long-lived charge separated states, i.e. the fundamental processes to power artificial photosynthetic systems.

Hydrodynamical simulations of galaxy clusters in dark energy cosmologies

In this work we investigate the influence of dark energy on structure formation, within five different cosmological models, namely a concordance $\Lambda$CDM model, two models with dynamical dark energy, viewed as a quintessence scalar field (using a RP and a SUGRA potential form) and two extended quintessence models (EQp and EQn) where the quintessence scalar field interacts non-minimally with gravity (scalar-tensor theories). We adopted for all models the normalization of the matter power spectrum $\sigma_{8}$ to match the CMB data. For each model, we perform hydrodynamical simulations in a cosmological box of $(300 \ {\rm{Mpc}} \ h^{-1})^{3}$ including baryons and allowing for cooling and star formation. We find that, in models with dynamical dark energy, the evolving cosmological background leads to different star formation rates and different formation histories of galaxy clusters, but the baryon physics is not affected in a relevant way. We investigate several proxies for the cluster mass function based on X-ray observables like temperature, luminosity, $M_{gas}$, and $Y_{X}$. We confirm that the overall baryon fraction is almost independent of the dark energy models within few percentage points. The same is true for the gas fraction. This evidence reinforces the use of galaxy clusters as cosmological probe of the matter and energy content of the Universe. We also study the $c-M$ relation in the different cosmological scenarios, using both dark matter only and hydrodynamical simulations. We find that the normalization of the $c-M$ relation is directly linked to $\sigma_{8}$ and the evolution of the density perturbations for $\Lambda$CDM, RP and SUGRA, while for EQp and EQn it depends also on the evolution of the linear density contrast. These differences in the $c-M$ relation provide another way to use galaxy clusters to constrain the underlying cosmology.

Properties of cosmic voids in dark energy simulations

The last decade has witnessed the establishment of a Standard Cosmological Model, which is based on two fundamental assumptions: the first one is the existence of a new non relativistic kind of particles, i. e. the Dark Matter (DM) that provides the potential wells in which structures create, while the second one is presence of the Dark Energy (DE), the simplest form of which is represented by the Cosmological Constant Λ, that sources the acceleration in the expansion of our Universe. These two features are summarized by the acronym ΛCDM, which is an abbreviation used to refer to the present Standard Cosmological Model. Although the Standard Cosmological Model shows a remarkably successful agreement with most of the available observations, it presents some longstanding unsolved problems. A possible way to solve these problems is represented by the introduction of a dynamical Dark Energy, in the form of the scalar field ϕ. In the coupled DE models, the scalar field ϕ features a direct interaction with matter in different regimes. Cosmic voids are large under-dense regions in the Universe devoided of matter. Being nearby empty of matter their dynamics is supposed to be dominated by DE, to the nature of which the properties of cosmic voids should be very sensitive. This thesis work is devoted to the statistical and geometrical analysis of cosmic voids in large N-body simulations of structure formation in the context of alternative competing cosmological models. In particular we used the ZOBOV code (see ref. Neyrinck 2008), a publicly available void finder algorithm, to identify voids in the Halos catalogues extraxted from CoDECS simulations (see ref. Baldi 2012 ). The CoDECS are the largest N-body simulations to date of interacting Dark Energy (DE) models. We identify suitable criteria to produce voids catalogues with the aim of comparing the properties of these objects in interacting DE scenarios to the standard ΛCDM model, at different redshifts. This thesis work is organized as follows: in chapter 1, the Standard Cosmological Model as well as the main properties of cosmic voids are intro- duced. In chapter 2, we will present the scalar field scenario. In chapter 3 the tools, the methods and the criteria by which a voids catalogue is created are described while in chapter 4 we discuss the statistical properties of cosmic voids included in our catalogues. In chapter 5 the geometrical properties of the catalogued cosmic voids are presented by means of their stacked profiles. In chapter 6 we summarized our results and we propose further developments of this work.