Demand of children in Colombia : guessing or planning

El artículo analiza los determinantes de la presencia de hijos no deseados en Colombia. Se utiliza la información de la Encuesta Nacional de Demografía y Salud (ENDS, 2005), específicamente para las mujeres de 40 años o más. Dadas las características especiales de la variable que se analiza, se utilizan modelos de conteo para verificar si determinadas características socioeconómicas como la educación o el estrato económico explican la presencia de hijos no deseados. Se encuentra que la educación de la mujer y el área de residencia son determinantes significativos de los nacimientos no planeados. Además, la relación negativa entre el número de hijos no deseados y la educación de la mujer arroja implicaciones clave en materia de política social.

Determinants of demand for antenatal care in Colombia

Even though antenatal care is universally regarded as important, determinants of demand for antenatal care have not been widely studied. Evidence concerning which and how socioeconomic conditions influence whether a pregnant woman attends or not at least one antenatal consultation or how these factors affect the absences to antenatal consultations is very limited. In order to generate this evidence, a two-stage analysis was performed with data from the Demographic and Health Survey carried out by Profamilia in Colombia during 2005. The first stage was run as a logit model showing the marginal effects on the probability of attending the first visit and an ordinary least squares model was performed for the second stage. It was found that mothers living in the pacific region as well as young mothers seem to have a lower probability of attending the first visit but these factors are not related to the number of absences to antenatal consultation once the first visit has been achieved. The effect of health insurance was surprising because of the differing effects that the health insurers showed. Some familiar and personal conditions such as willingness to have the last children and number of previous children, demonstrated to be important in the determination of demand. The effect of mother’s educational attainment was proved as important whereas the father’s educational achievement was not. This paper provides some elements for policy making in order to increase the demand inducement of antenatal care, as well as stimulating research on demand for specific issues on health.

Network externalities across financial institutions

We propose and estimate a financial distress model that explicitly accounts for the interactions or spill-over effects between financial institutions, through the use of a spatial continuity matrix that is build from financial network data of inter bank transactions. Such setup of the financial distress model allows for the empirical validation of the importance of network externalities in determining financial distress, in addition to institution specific and macroeconomic covariates. The relevance of such specification is that it incorporates simultaneously micro-prudential factors (Basel 2) as well as macro-prudential and systemic factors (Basel 3) as determinants of financial distress. Results indicate network externalities are an important determinant of financial health of a financial institutions. The parameter that measures the effect of network externalities is both economically and statistical significant and its inclusion as a risk factor reduces the importance of the firm specific variables such as the size or degree of leverage of the financial institution. In addition we analyze the policy implications of the network factor model for capital requirements and deposit insurance pricing.

Mercados laborales en entornos de conflictos armados: un análisis empírico para Colombia

Históricamente se ha reconocido que los conflictos internos afectan de manera directa variables a nivel individual como la salud de las personas, los niveles de escolaridad y el desplazamiento forzoso de los afectados. Sin embargo, solo hasta la última década las investigaciones académicas se han inclinado en documentar y cuantificar rigurosamente los efectos colaterales de la violencia sobre las condiciones de vida de los individuos. La presente investigación estudia cómo la exposición al conflicto en Colombia ha afectado las decisiones en términos de mercado laboral de las personas. La estrategia de identificación internaliza los reconocidos problemas de endogeneidad del conflicto con variables de actividad y desarrollo económico y presenta resultados robustos a fenómenos de migración interna y desplazamiento. En términos de participación laboral y desempleo, se encuentran efectos heterogéneos a nivel de género como respuestas a la violencia experimentada. En particular, la probabilidad de participación laboral de las mujeres se incremente como consecuencia de la exposición al conflicto, mientras que la de desempleo disminuye. Para los hombres, los resultados muestran una menor probabilidad de participación, efecto contrario al de las mujeres, y un efecto análogo en términos de desempleo. La investigación no encuentra efectos diferenciales en términos de informalidad laboral.

Natural resource windfalls and efficiency of local government expenditures: evidence from Peru

We study the role of natural resource windfalls in explaining the efficiency of public expenditures. Using a rich dataset of expenditures and public good provision for 1,836 municipalities in Peru for period 2001-2010, we estimate a non-monotonic relationship between the efficiency of public good provision and the level of natural resource transfers. Local governments that were extremely favored by the boom of mineral prices were more efficient in using fiscal windfalls whereas those benefited with modest transfers were more inefficient. These results can be explained by the increase in political competition associated with the boom. However, the fact that increases in efficiency were related to reductions in public good provision casts doubts about the beneficial effects of political competition in promoting efficiency.

Analysis and Simulation of Transverse Random Fracture of Long Fibre Reinforced Composites

La present tesi proposa una metodología per a la simulació probabilística de la fallada de la matriu en materials compòsits reforçats amb fibres de carboni, basant-se en l'anàlisi de la distribució aleatòria de les fibres. En els primers capítols es revisa l'estat de l'art sobre modelització matemàtica de materials aleatoris, càlcul de propietats efectives i criteris de fallada transversal en materials compòsits. El primer pas en la metodologia proposada és la definició de la determinació del tamany mínim d'un Element de Volum Representatiu Estadístic (SRVE) . Aquesta determinació es du a terme analitzant el volum de fibra, les propietats elàstiques efectives, la condició de Hill, els estadístics de les components de tensió i defromació, la funció de densitat de probabilitat i les funcions estadístiques de distància entre fibres de models d'elements de la microestructura, de diferent tamany. Un cop s'ha determinat aquest tamany mínim, es comparen un model periòdic i un model aleatori, per constatar la magnitud de les diferències que s'hi observen. Es defineix, també, una metodologia per a l'anàlisi estadístic de la distribució de la fibra en el compòsit, a partir d'imatges digitals de la secció transversal. Aquest anàlisi s'aplica a quatre materials diferents. Finalment, es proposa un mètode computacional de dues escales per a simular la fallada transversal de làmines unidireccionals, que permet obtenir funcions de densitat de probabilitat per a les variables mecàniques. Es descriuen algunes aplicacions i possibilitats d'aquest mètode i es comparen els resultats obtinguts de la simulació amb valors experimentals.

An approach to coded structured light to obtain three dimensional information

The human visual ability to perceive depth looks like a puzzle. We perceive three-dimensional spatial information quickly and efficiently by using the binocular stereopsis of our eyes and, what is mote important the learning of the most common objects which we achieved through living. Nowadays, modelling the behaviour of our brain is a fiction, that is why the huge problem of 3D perception and further, interpretation is split into a sequence of easier problems. A lot of research is involved in robot vision in order to obtain 3D information of the surrounded scene. Most of this research is based on modelling the stereopsis of humans by using two cameras as if they were two eyes. This method is known as stereo vision and has been widely studied in the past and is being studied at present, and a lot of work will be surely done in the future. This fact allows us to affirm that this topic is one of the most interesting ones in computer vision. The stereo vision principle is based on obtaining the three dimensional position of an object point from the position of its projective points in both camera image planes. However, before inferring 3D information, the mathematical models of both cameras have to be known. This step is known as camera calibration and is broadly describes in the thesis. Perhaps the most important problem in stereo vision is the determination of the pair of homologue points in the two images, known as the correspondence problem, and it is also one of the most difficult problems to be solved which is currently investigated by a lot of researchers. The epipolar geometry allows us to reduce the correspondence problem. An approach to the epipolar geometry is describes in the thesis. Nevertheless, it does not solve it at all as a lot of considerations have to be taken into account. As an example we have to consider points without correspondence due to a surface occlusion or simply due to a projection out of the camera scope. The interest of the thesis is focused on structured light which has been considered as one of the most frequently used techniques in order to reduce the problems related lo stereo vision. Structured light is based on the relationship between a projected light pattern its projection and an image sensor. The deformations between the pattern projected into the scene and the one captured by the camera, permits to obtain three dimensional information of the illuminated scene. This technique has been widely used in such applications as: 3D object reconstruction, robot navigation, quality control, and so on. Although the projection of regular patterns solve the problem of points without match, it does not solve the problem of multiple matching, which leads us to use hard computing algorithms in order to search the correct matches. In recent years, another structured light technique has increased in importance. This technique is based on the codification of the light projected on the scene in order to be used as a tool to obtain an unique match. Each token of light is imaged by the camera, we have to read the label (decode the pattern) in order to solve the correspondence problem. The advantages and disadvantages of stereo vision against structured light and a survey on coded structured light are related and discussed. The work carried out in the frame of this thesis has permitted to present a new coded structured light pattern which solves the correspondence problem uniquely and robust. Unique, as each token of light is coded by a different word which removes the problem of multiple matching. Robust, since the pattern has been coded using the position of each token of light with respect to both co-ordinate axis. Algorithms and experimental results are included in the thesis. The reader can see examples 3D measurement of static objects, and the more complicated measurement of moving objects. The technique can be used in both cases as the pattern is coded by a single projection shot. Then it can be used in several applications of robot vision. Our interest is focused on the mathematical study of the camera and pattern projector models. We are also interested in how these models can be obtained by calibration, and how they can be used to obtained three dimensional information from two correspondence points. Furthermore, we have studied structured light and coded structured light, and we have presented a new coded structured light pattern. However, in this thesis we started from the assumption that the correspondence points could be well-segmented from the captured image. Computer vision constitutes a huge problem and a lot of work is being done at all levels of human vision modelling, starting from a)image acquisition; b) further image enhancement, filtering and processing, c) image segmentation which involves thresholding, thinning, contour detection, texture and colour analysis, and so on. The interest of this thesis starts in the next step, usually known as depth perception or 3D measurement.

Modelling the hydraulics of the Carlisle 2005 flood event

The performance of a 2D numerical model of flood hydraulics is tested for a major event in Carlisle, UK, in 2005. This event is associated with a unique data set, with GPS surveyed wrack lines and flood extent surveyed 3 weeks after the flood. The Simple Finite Volume (SFV) model is used to solve the 2D Saint-Venant equations over an unstructured mesh of 30000 elements representing channel and floodplain, and allowing detailed hydraulics of flow around bridge piers and other influential features to be represented. The SFV model is also used to corroborate flows recorded for the event at two gauging stations. Calibration of Manning's n is performed with a two stage strategy, with channel values determined by calibration of the gauging station models, and floodplain values determined by optimising the fit between model results and observed water levels and flood extent for the 2005 event. RMS error for the calibrated model compared with surveyed water levels is ~±0.4m, the same order of magnitude as the estimated error in the survey data. The study demonstrates the ability of unstructured mesh hydraulic models to represent important hydraulic processes across a range of scales, with potential applications to flood risk management.

Probing protein−tannin interactions by isothermal titration microcalorimetry

Isothermal titration microcalorimetry (ITC) has been applied to investigate protein−tannin interactions. Two hydrolyzable tannins were studied, namely myrabolan and tara tannins, for their interaction with bovine serum albumin (BSA), a model globular protein, and gelatin, a model proline-rich random coil protein. Calorimetry data indicate that protein−tannin interaction mechanisms are dependent upon the nature of the protein involved. Tannins apparently interact nonspecifically with the globular BSA, leading to binding saturation at estimated tannin/BSA molar ratios of 48:1 for tara- and 178:1 for myrabolan tannins. Tannins bind to the random coil protein gelatin by a two-stage mechanism. The energetics of the first stage show evidence for cooperative binding of tannins to the protein, while the second stage indicates gradual saturation of binding sites as observed for interaction with BSA. The structure and flexibility of the tannins themselves alters the stoichiometry of the interaction, but does not appear to have any significant affect on the overall binding mechanism observed. This study demonstrates the potential of ITC for providing an insight into the nature of protein−tannin interactions.

An application of the DEA double bootstrap to examine sources of efficiency in Bangladesh rice farming

In this article we examine sources of technical efficiency for rice farming in Bangladesh. The motivation for the analysis is the need to close the rice yield gap to enable food security. We employ the DEA double bootstrap of Simar and Wilson (2007) to estimate and explain technical efficiency. This technique overcomes severe limitations inherent in using the two-stage DEA approach commonly employed in the efficiency literature. From a policy perspective our results show that potential efficiency gains to reduce the yield gap are greater than previously found. Statistically positive influences on technical efficiency are education, extension and credit, with age being a negative influence.

Probing protein-tannin interactions by isothermal titration microcalorimetry

Isothermal titration microcalorimetry (ITC) has been applied to investigate protein-tannin interactions. Two hydrolyzable tannins were studied, namely myrabolan and tara tannins, for their interaction with bovine serum albumin (BSA), a model globular protein, and gelatin, a model proline-rich random coil protein. Calorimetry data indicate that protein-tannin interaction mechanisms are dependent upon the nature of the protein involved. Tannins apparently interact nonspecifically with the globular BSA, leading to binding saturation at estimated tannin/BSA molar ratios of 48:1 for tara- and 178:1 for myrabolan tannins. Tannins bind to the random coil protein gelatin by a two-stage mechanism. The energetics of the first stage show evidence for cooperative binding of tannins to the protein, while the second stage indicates gradual saturation of binding sites as observed for interaction with BSA. The structure and flexibility of the tannins themselves alters the stoichiometry of the interaction, but does not appear to have any significant affect on the overall binding mechanism observed. This study demonstrates the potential of ITC for providing an insight into the nature of protein-tannin interactions.

Application of a double bootstrap to investigation of determinants of technical efficiency of farms in Central Europe

The paper provides one of the first applications of the double bootstrap procedure (Simar and Wilson 2007) in a two-stage estimation of the effect of environmental variables on non-parametric estimates of technical efficiency. This procedure enables consistent inference within models explaining efficiency scores, while simultaneously producing standard errors and confidence intervals for these efficiency scores. The application is to 88 livestock and 256 crop farms in the Czech Republic, split into individual and corporate.

Application of a double bootstrap to investigation of determinants of technical efficiency of farms in Central Europe

The paper provides one of the first applications of the double bootstrap procedure (Simar and Wilson 2007) in a two-stage estimation of the effect of environmental variables on non-parametric estimates of technical efficiency. This procedure enables consistent inference within models explaining efficiency scores, while simultaneously producing standard errors and confidence intervals for these efficiency scores. The application is to 88 livestock and 256 crop farms in the Czech Republic, split into individual and corporate.

Sequential designs for phase III clinical trials incorporating treatment selection

Most statistical methodology for phase III clinical trials focuses on the comparison of a single experimental treatment with a control. An increasing desire to reduce the time before regulatory approval of a new drug is sought has led to development of two-stage or sequential designs for trials that combine the definitive analysis associated with phase III with the treatment selection element of a phase II study. In this paper we consider a trial in which the most promising of a number of experimental treatments is selected at the first interim analysis. This considerably reduces the computational load associated with the construction of stopping boundaries compared to the approach proposed by Follman, Proschan and Geller (Biometrics 1994; 50: 325-336). The computational requirement does not exceed that for the sequential comparison of a single experimental treatment with a control. Existing methods are extended in two ways. First, the use of the efficient score as a test statistic makes the analysis of binary, normal or failure-time data, as well as adjustment for covariates or stratification straightforward. Second, the question of trial power is also considered, enabling the determination of sample size required to give specified power. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Demographic models and the management of endangered species: a case study of the critically endangered Seychelles magpie robin

1. Demographic models are assuming an important role in management decisions for endangered species. Elasticity analysis and scope for management analysis are two such applications. Elasticity analysis determines the vital rates that have the greatest impact on population growth. Scope for management analysis examines the effects that feasible management might have on vital rates and population growth. Both methods target management in an attempt to maximize population growth. 2. The Seychelles magpie robin Copsychus sechellarum is a critically endangered island endemic, the population of which underwent significant growth in the early 1990s following the implementation of a recovery programme. We examined how the formal use of elasticity and scope for management analyses might have shaped management in the recovery programme, and assessed their effectiveness by comparison with the actual population growth achieved. 3. The magpie robin population doubled from about 25 birds in 1990 to more than 50 by 1995. A simple two-stage demographic model showed that this growth was driven primarily by a significant increase in the annual survival probability of first-year birds and an increase in the birth rate. Neither the annual survival probability of adults nor the probability of a female breeding at age 1 changed significantly over time. 4. Elasticity analysis showed that the annual survival probability of adults had the greatest impact on population growth. There was some scope to use management to increase survival, but because survival rates were already high (> 0.9) this had a negligible effect on population growth. Scope for management analysis showed that significant population growth could have been achieved by targeting management measures at the birth rate and survival probability of first-year birds, although predicted growth rates were lower than those achieved by the recovery programme when all management measures were in place (i.e. 1992-95). 5. Synthesis and applications. We argue that scope for management analysis can provide a useful basis for management but will inevitably be limited to some extent by a lack of data, as our study shows. This means that identifying perceived ecological problems and designing management to alleviate them must be an important component of endangered species management. The corollary of this is that it will not be possible or wise to consider only management options for which there is a demonstrable ecological benefit. Given these constraints, we see little role for elasticity analysis because, when data are available, a scope for management analysis will always be of greater practical value and, when data are lacking, precautionary management demands that as many perceived ecological problems as possible are tackled.