Machine prognostics based on health state estimation using SVM

The ability to accurately predict the remaining useful life of machine components is critical for machine continuous operation, and can also improve productivity and enhance system safety. In condition-based maintenance (CBM), maintenance is performed based on information collected through condition monitoring and an assessment of the machine health. Effective diagnostics and prognostics are important aspects of CBM for maintenance engineers to schedule a repair and to acquire replacement components before the components actually fail. All machine components are subjected to degradation processes in real environments and they have certain failure characteristics which can be related to the operating conditions. This paper describes a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of machines based on health state probability estimation and involving historical knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostics and prognostics systems. The technique uses a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier as a tool for estimating health state probability of machine degradation, which can affect the accuracy of prediction. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, real life historical data from bearings of High Pressure Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were analysed and used to obtain the optimal prediction of remaining useful life. The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognostic system based on health state probability estimation has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for remnant life prediction in industrial machinery.

Microscopic cooperative traffic based on NGSIM data

The deployment of new emerging technologies, such as cooperative systems, allows the traffic community to foresee relevant improvements in terms of traffic safety and efficiency. Vehicles are able to communicate on the local traffic state in real time, which could result in an automatic and therefore better reaction to the mechanism of traffic jam formation. An upstream single hop radio broadcast network can improve the perception of each cooperative driver within radio range and hence the traffic stability. The impact of a cooperative law on traffic congestion appearance is investigated, analytically and through simulation. Ngsim field data is used to calibrate the Optimal Velocity with Relative Velocity (OVRV) car following model and the MOBIL lane-changing model is implemented. Assuming that congestion can be triggered either by a perturbation in the instability domain or by a critical lane changing behavior, the calibrated car following behavior is used to assess the impact of a microscopic cooperative law on abnormal lane changing behavior. The cooperative law helps reduce and delay traffic congestion as it increases traffic flow stability.

Analytical model for fault section estimation and state identification of unobserved protective relays in power systems [电力系统故障诊断与不可观测保护状态识别的解析模型]

In recent years, some models have been proposed for the fault section estimation and state identification of unobserved protective relays (FSE-SIUPR) under the condition of incomplete state information of protective relays. In these models, the temporal alarm information from a faulted power system is not well explored although it is very helpful in compensating the incomplete state information of protective relays, quickly achieving definite fault diagnosis results and evaluating the operating status of protective relays and circuit breakers in complicated fault scenarios. In order to solve this problem, an integrated optimization mathematical model for the FSE-SIUPR, which takes full advantage of the temporal characteristics of alarm messages, is developed in the framework of the well-established temporal constraint network. With this model, the fault evolution procedure can be explained and some states of unobserved protective relays identified. The model is then solved by means of the Tabu search (TS) and finally verified by test results of fault scenarios in a practical power system.

100Hz onboard vision for quadrotor state estimation

This paper introduces a high-speed, 100Hz, visionbased state estimator that is suitable for quadrotor control in close quarters manoeuvring applications. We describe the hardware and algorithms for estimating the state of the quadrotor. Experimental results for position, velocity and yaw angle estimators are presented and compared with motion capture data. Quantitative performance comparison with state-of-the-art achievements are also presented.

Design of open source framework for traffic and travel simulation

For the evaluation, design, and planning of traffic facilities and measures, traffic simulation packages are the de facto tools for consultants, policy makers, and researchers. However, the available commercial simulation packages do not always offer the desired work flow and flexibility for academic research. In many cases, researchers resort to designing and building their own dedicated models, without an intrinsic incentive (or the practical means) to make the results available in the public domain. To make matters worse, a substantial part of these efforts pertains to rebuilding basic functionality and, in many respects, reinventing the wheel. This problem not only affects the research community but adversely affects the entire traffic simulation community and frustrates the development of traffic simulation in general. For this problem to be addressed, this paper describes an open source approach, OpenTraffic, which is being developed as a collaborative effort between the Queensland University of Technology, Australia; the National Institute of Informatics, Tokyo; and the Technical University of Delft, the Netherlands. The OpenTraffic simulation framework enables academies from geographic areas and disciplines within the traffic domain to work together and contribute to a specific topic of interest, ranging from travel choice behavior to car following, and from response to intelligent transportation systems to activity planning. The modular approach enables users of the software to focus on their area of interest, whereas other functional modules can be regarded as black boxes. Specific attention is paid to a standardization of data inputs and outputs for traffic simulations. Such standardization will allow the sharing of data with many existing commercial simulation packages.

Estimation of reference values for dioxin, furan, and PCB congener concentrations for the Australian population

Population-representative data for dioxin and PCB congener concentrations are available for the Australian population based on measurements in age- and gender-specific serum pools.1 Such data provide a basis for characterizing the mean concentrations of these compounds in the population, but do not provide information on the inter-individual variation in serum concentrations that may exist in the population within an age- and gender-specific group. Such variation may occur due to inter-individual differences in long-term exposure levels or elimination rates. Reference values are estimates of upper percentiles (often the 95th percentile) of measured values in a defined population that can be used to evaluate data from individuals in the population in order to identify concentrations that are elevated, for example, from occupational exposures.2 The objective of this analysis is to estimate reference values corresponding to the 95th percentile (RV95s) for Australia on an age-specific basis for individual dioxin-like congeners based on measurements in serum pools from Toms and Mueller (2010).

Hazard based models for freeway traffic incident duration

Assessing and prioritising cost-effective strategies to mitigate the impacts of traffic incidents and accidents on non-recurrent congestion on major roads represents a significant challenge for road network managers. This research examines the influence of numerous factors associated with incidents of various types on their duration. It presents a comprehensive traffic incident data mining and analysis by developing an incident duration model based on twelve months of incident data obtained from the Australian freeway network. Parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) survival models of incident duration were developed, including log-logistic, lognormal, and Weibul-considering both fixed and random parameters, as well as a Weibull model with gamma heterogeneity. The Weibull AFT models with random parameters were appropriate for modelling incident duration arising from crashes and hazards. A Weibull model with gamma heterogeneity was most suitable for modelling incident duration of stationary vehicles. Significant variables affecting incident duration include characteristics of the incidents (severity, type, towing requirements, etc.), and location, time of day, and traffic characteristics of the incident. Moreover, the findings reveal no significant effects of infrastructure and weather on incident duration. A significant and unique contribution of this paper is that the durations of each type of incident are uniquely different and respond to different factors. The results of this study are useful for traffic incident management agencies to implement strategies to reduce incident duration, leading to reduced congestion, secondary incidents, and the associated human and economic losses.

Analysis of traffic injury severity in a mega city of a developing country

Despite a considerable amount of research on traffic injury severities, relatively little is known about the factors influencing traffic injury severity in developing countries, and in particular in Bangladesh. Road traffic crashes are a common headline in daily newspapers of Bangladesh. It has also recorded one of the highest road fatality rates in the world. This research identifies significant factors contributing to traffic injury severity in Dhaka – a mega city and capital of Bangladesh. Road traffic crash data of 5 years from 2007 to 2011 were collected from the Dhaka Metropolitan Police (DMP), which included about 2714 traffic crashes. The severity level of these crashes was documented in a 4-point ordinal scale: no injury (property damage), minor injury, severe injury, and death. An ordered Probit regression model has been estimated to identify factors contributing to injury severities. Results show that night time influence is associated with a higher level injury severity as is for individuals involved in single vehicle crashes. Crashes on highway sections within the city are found to be more injurious than crashes along the arterial and feeder roads. There is a lower likelihood of injury severity, however, if the road sections are monitored and enforced by the traffic police. The likelihood of injuries is lower on two-way traffic arrangements than one-way, and at four-legged intersections and roundabouts compare to road segments. The findings are compared with those from developed countries and the implications of this research are discussed in terms of policy settings for developing countries.

Trip generation in Australia : Practical issues

An online survey was conducted to investigate the views and experiences of Australian traffic and transport professionals about practical problems and issues in terms of trip generation and trip chaining for use in Transport Impact Assessment (TIA). Findings from this survey revealed that there is a shortage of appropriate data related to trip generation estimation for use in TIAs in Australia. Establishing a National Trip Generation Database (NTGD) with a centralised responsible organisation for collecting and publishing trip generation data based on federal and state governments’ contribution was found the most accepted solution for resolving this shortage as well as providing national standards and guidelines associated with trip generation definitions, data collection methodology, and TIA preparation process based on updated research. Finally, the study recognised the importance of the trip chaining effects on trip generation estimation and identified most prevalent land uses subject to trip chaining in terms of TIA.

Variability in estimation of self-reported dietary intake data from elite athletes resulting from coding by different sports dietitians

A routine activity for a sports dietitian is to estimate energy and nutrient intake from an athlete's self-reported food intake. Decisions made by the dietitian when coding a food record are a source of variability in the data. The aim of the present study was to determine the variability in estimation of the daily energy and key nutrient intakes of elite athletes, when experienced coders analyzed the same food record using the same database and software package. Seven-day food records from a dietary survey of athletes in the 1996 Australian Olympic team were randomly selected to provide 13 sets of records, each set representing the self-reported food intake of an endurance, team, weight restricted, and sprint/power athlete. Each set was coded by 3-5 members of Sports Dietitians Australia, making a total of 52 athletes, 53 dietitians, and 1456 athlete-days of data. We estimated within- and between- athlete and dietitian variances for each dietary nutrient using mixed modeling, and we combined the variances to express variability as a coefficient of variation (typical variation as a percent of the mean). Variability in the mean of 7-day estimates of a nutrient was 2- to 3-fold less than that of a single day. The variability contributed by the coder was less than the true athlete variability for a 1-day record but was of similar magnitude for a 7-day record. The most variable nutrients (e.g., vitamin C, vitamin A, cholesterol) had approximately 3-fold more variability than least variable nutrients (e.g., energy, carbohydrate, magnesium). These athlete and coder variabilities need to be taken into account in dietary assessment of athletes for counseling and research.

An efficient online secondary path estimation for feedback active noise control systems

In practical cases for active noise control (ANC), the secondary path has usually a time varying behavior. For these cases, an online secondary path modeling method that uses a white noise as a training signal is required to ensure convergence of the system. The modeling accuracy and the convergence rate are increased when a white noise with a larger variance is used. However, the larger variance increases the residual noise, which decreases performance of the system and additionally causes instability problem to feedback structures. A sudden change in the secondary path leads to divergence of the online secondary path modeling filter. To overcome these problems, this paper proposes a new approach for online secondary path modeling in feedback ANC systems. The proposed algorithm uses the advantages of white noise with larger variance to model the secondary path, but the injection is stopped at the optimum point to increase performance of the algorithm and to prevent the instability effect of the white noise. In this approach, instead of continuous injection of the white noise, a sudden change in secondary path during the operation makes the algorithm to reactivate injection of the white noise to correct the secondary path estimation. In addition, the proposed method models the secondary path without the need of using off-line estimation of the secondary path. Considering the above features increases the convergence rate and modeling accuracy, which results in a high system performance. Computer simulation results shown in this paper indicate effectiveness of the proposed method.

Sources of ultrafine particles and chemical species along a traffic corridor : comparison of the results from two receptor models

Particulate matter is common in our environment and has been linked to human health problems particularly in the ultrafine size range. A range of chemical species have been associated with particulate matter and of special concern are the hazardous chemicals that can accentuate health problems. If the sources of such particles can be identified then strategies can be developed for the reduction of air pollution and consequently, the improvement of the quality of life. In this investigation, particle number size distribution data and the concentrations of chemical species were obtained at two sites in Brisbane, Australia. Source apportionment was used to determine the sources (or factors) responsible for the particle size distribution data. The apportionment was performed by Positive Matrix Factorisation (PMF) and Principal Component Analysis/Absolute Principal Component Scores (PCA/APCS), and the results were compared with information from the gaseous chemical composition analysis. Although PCA/APCS resolved more sources, the results of the PMF analysis appear to be more reliable. Six common sources identified by both methods include: traffic 1, traffic 2, local traffic, biomass burning, and two unassigned factors. Thus motor vehicle related activities had the most impact on the data with the average contribution from nearly all sources to the measured concentrations higher during peak traffic hours and weekdays. Further analyses incorporated the meteorological measurements into the PMF results to determine the direction of the sources relative to the measurement sites, and this indicated that traffic on the nearby road and intersection was responsible for most of the factors. The described methodology which utilised a combination of three types of data related to particulate matter to determine the sources could assist future development of particle emission control and reduction strategies.

Utility of an alternative bicycle commute route of lower proximity to motorised traffic in decreasing exposure to ultra-fine particles, respiratory symptoms and airway inflammation - a structured exposure experiment

Background: Bicycle commuting in an urban environment of high air pollution is known as a potential health risk, especially for susceptible individuals. While risk management strategies aimed to reduce motorised traffic emissions exposure have been suggested, limited studies have assessed the utility of such strategies in real-world circumstances. Objectives: The potential of reducing exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP; < 0.1 µm) during bicycle commuting by lowering interaction with motorised traffic was investigated with real-time air pollution and acute inflammatory measurements in healthy individuals using their typical, and an alternative to their typical, bicycle commute route. Methods: Thirty-five healthy adults (mean ± SD: age = 39 ± 11 yr; 29% female) each completed two return trips of their typical route (HIGH) and a pre-determined altered route of lower interaction with motorised traffic (LOW; determined by the proportion of on-road cycle paths). Particle number concentration (PNC) and diameter (PD) were monitored in real-time in-commute. Acute inflammatory indices of respiratory symptom incidence, lung function and spontaneous sputum (for inflammatory cell analyses) were collected immediately pre-commute, and one and three hours post-commute. Results: LOW resulted in a significant reduction in mean PNC (1.91 x e4 ± 0.93 x e4 ppcc vs. 2.95 x e4 ± 1.50 x e4 ppcc; p ≤ 0.001). Besides incidence of in-commute offensive odour detection (42 vs. 56 %; p = 0.019), incidence of dust and soot observation (33 vs. 47 %; p = 0.038) and nasopharyngeal irritation (31 vs. 41 %; p = 0.007), acute inflammatory indices were not significantly associated to in-commute PNC, nor were these indices reduced with LOW compared to HIGH. Conclusions: Exposure to PNC, and the incidence of offensive odour and nasopharyngeal irritation, can be significantly reduced when utilising a strategy of lowering interaction with motorised traffic whilst bicycle commuting, which may bring important benefits for both healthy and susceptible individuals.

Investigation into the noise map based on traffic flow prediction in the citywide road network

As one of the measures for decreasing road traffic noise in a city, the control of the traffic flow and the physical distribution is considered. To conduct the measure effectively, the model for predicting the traffic flow in the citywide road network is necessary. In this study, the existing model named AVENUE was used as a traffic flow prediction model. The traffic flow model was integrated with the road vehicles' sound power model and the sound propagation model, and the new road traffic noise prediction model was established. As a case study, the prediction model was applied to the road network of Tsukuba city in Japan and the noise map of the city was made. To examine the calculation accuracy of the noise map, the calculated values of the noise at the main roads were compared with the measured values. As a result, it was found that there was a possibility that the high accuracy noise map of the city could be made by using the noise prediction model developed in this study.

Information provision and network performance represented by Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram

The existence of the Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD), which relates network space-mean density and flow, has been shown in urban networks under homogeneous traffic conditions. Since the MFD represents the area-wide network traffic performances, studies on perimeter control strategies and an area traffic state estimation utilizing the MFD concept has been reported. The key requirements for the well-defined MFD is the homogeneity of the area wide traffic condition, which is not universally expected in real world. For the practical application of the MFD concept, several researchers have identified the influencing factors for network homogeneity. However, they did not explicitly take drivers’ behaviour under real time information provision into account, which has a significant impact on the shape of the MFD. This research aims to demonstrate the impact of drivers’ route choice behaviour on network performance by employing the MFD as a measurement. A microscopic simulation is chosen as an experimental platform. By changing the ratio of en-route informed drivers and pre-trip informed drivers as well as by taking different route choice parameters, various scenarios are simulated in order to investigate how drivers’ adaptation to the traffic congestion influences the network performance and the MFD shape. This study confirmed and addressed the impact of information provision on the MFD shape and highlighted the significance of the route choice parameter setting as an influencing factor in the MFD analysis.