Measuring societal awareness of the rural agrarian landscape: indicators and scale issues

The work presented in this report is part of the effort to define the landscape state and diversity indicator in the frame of COM (2006) 508 “Development of agri-environmental indicators for monitoring the integration of environmental concerns into the common agricultural policy”. The Communication classifies the indicators according to their level of development, which, for the landscape indicator is “in need of substantial improvements in order to become fully operational”. For this reason a full re-definition of the indicator has been carried out, following the initial proposal presented in the frame of the IRENA operation (“Indicator Reporting on the Integration of Environmental Concerns into Agricultural Policy”). The new proposal for the landscape state and diversity indicator is structured in three components: the first concerns the degree of naturalness, the second landscape structure, the third the societal appreciation of the rural landscape. While the first two components rely on a strong bulk of existing literature, the development of the methodology has made evident the need for further analysis of the third component, which is based on a newly proposed top-down approach. This report presents an in-depth analysis of such component of the indicator, and the effort to include a social dimension in large scale landscape assessment.

Solar influence on global and regional climates

The literature relevant to how solar variability influences climate is vast—but much has been based on inadequate statistics and non-robust procedures. The common pitfalls are outlined in this review. The best estimates of the solar influence on the global mean air surface temperature show relatively small effects, compared with the response to anthropogenic changes (and broadly in line with their respective radiative forcings). However, the situation is more interesting when one looks at regional and season variations around the global means. In particular, recent research indicates that winters in Eurasia may have some dependence on the Sun, with more cold winters occurring when the solar activity is low. Advances in modelling ‘‘top-down’’ mechanisms, whereby stratospheric changes influence the underlying troposphere, offer promising explanations of the observed phenomena. In contrast, the suggested modulation of low-altitude clouds by galactic cosmic rays provides an increasingly inadequate explanation of observations.

Seasonal pattern of regional carbon balance in the central Rocky Mountains from surface and airborne measurements

[1] High-elevation forests represent a large fraction of potential carbon uptake in North America, but this uptake is not well constrained by observations. Additionally, forests in the Rocky Mountains have recently been severely damaged by drought, fire, and insect outbreaks, which have been quantified at local scales but not assessed in terms of carbon uptake at regional scales. The Airborne Carbon in the Mountains Experiment was carried out in 2007 partly to assess carbon uptake in western U.S. mountain ecosystems. The magnitude and seasonal change of carbon uptake were quantified by (1) paired upwind-downwind airborne CO2 observations applied in a boundary layer budget, (2) a spatially explicit ecosystem model constrained using remote sensing and flux tower observations, and (3) a downscaled global tracer transport inversion. Top-down approaches had mean carbon uptake equivalent to flux tower observations at a subalpine forest, while the ecosystem model showed less. The techniques disagreed on temporal evolution. Regional carbon uptake was greatest in the early summer immediately following snowmelt and tended to lessen as the region experienced dry summer conditions. This reduction was more pronounced in the airborne budget and inversion than in flux tower or upscaling, possibly related to lower snow water availability in forests sampled by the aircraft, which were lower in elevation than the tower site. Changes in vegetative greenness associated with insect outbreaks were detected using satellite reflectance observations, but impacts on regional carbon cycling were unclear, highlighting the need to better quantify this emerging disturbance effect on montane forest carbon cycling.

Automatic near real-time selection of flood water levels from high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar images for assimilation into hydraulic models: a case study

Flood extents caused by fluvial floods in urban and rural areas may be predicted by hydraulic models. Assimilation may be used to correct the model state and improve the estimates of the model parameters or external forcing. One common observation assimilated is the water level at various points along the modelled reach. Distributed water levels may be estimated indirectly along the flood extents in Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images by intersecting the extents with the floodplain topography. It is necessary to select a subset of levels for assimilation because adjacent levels along the flood extent will be strongly correlated. A method for selecting such a subset automatically and in near real-time is described, which would allow the SAR water levels to be used in a forecasting model. The method first selects candidate waterline points in flooded rural areas having low slope. The waterline levels and positions are corrected for the effects of double reflections between the water surface and emergent vegetation at the flood edge. Waterline points are also selected in flooded urban areas away from radar shadow and layover caused by buildings, with levels similar to those in adjacent rural areas. The resulting points are thinned to reduce spatial autocorrelation using a top-down clustering approach. The method was developed using a TerraSAR-X image from a particular case study involving urban and rural flooding. The waterline points extracted proved to be spatially uncorrelated, with levels reasonably similar to those determined manually from aerial photographs, and in good agreement with those of nearby gauges.

Facilitating and disrupting speech perception in word deafness

Background: Word deafness is a rare condition where pathologically degraded speech perception results in impaired repetition and comprehension but otherwise intact linguistic skills. Although impaired linguistic systems in aphasias resulting from damage to the neural language system (here termed central impairments), have been consistently shown to be amenable to external influences such as linguistic or contextual information (e.g. cueing effects in naming), it is not known whether similar influences can be shown for aphasia arising from damage to a perceptual system (here termed peripheral impairments). Aims: This study aimed to investigate the extent to which pathologically degraded speech perception could be facilitated or disrupted by providing visual as well as auditory information. Methods and Procedures: In three word repetition tasks, the participant with word deafness (AB) repeated words under different conditions: words were repeated in the context of a pictorial or written target, a distractor (semantic, unrelated, rhyme or phonological neighbour) or a blank page (nothing). Accuracy and error types were analysed. Results: AB was impaired at repetition in the blank condition, confirming her degraded speech perception. Repetition was significantly facilitated when accompanied by a picture or written example of the word and significantly impaired by the presence of a written rhyme. Errors in the blank condition were primarily formal whereas errors in the rhyme condition were primarily miscues (saying the distractor word rather than the target). Conclusions: Cross-modal input can both facilitate and further disrupt repetition in word deafness. The cognitive mechanisms behind these findings are discussed. Both top-down influence from the lexical layer on perceptual processes as well as intra-lexical competition within the lexical layer may play a role.  

Normative, systemic and procedural aspects: a review of indicator-based sustainability assessments in agriculture

Methods for assessing the sustainability of agricultural systems do often not fully (i) take into account the multifunctionality of agriculture, (ii) include multidimensionality, (iii) utilize and implement the assessment knowledge and (iv) identify conflicting goals and trade-offs. This chapter reviews seven recently developed multidisciplinary indicator-based assessment methods with respect to their contribution to these shortcomings. All approaches include (1) normative aspects such as goal setting, (2) systemic aspects such as a specification of scale of analysis and (3) a reproducible structure of the approach. The approaches can be categorized into three typologies: first, top-down farm assessments, which focus on field or farm assessment; second, top-down regional assessments, which assess the on-farm and the regional effects; and third, bottom-up, integrated participatory or transdisciplinary approaches, which focus on a regional scale. Our analysis shows that the bottom-up, integrated participatory or transdisciplinary approaches seem to better overcome the four shortcomings mentioned above.

Incorporating technology buying behaviour into UK-based long term domestic stock energy models to provide improved policy analysis

The UK has a target for an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 from a 1990 base. Domestic energy use accounts for around 30% of total emissions. This paper presents a comprehensive review of existing models and modelling techniques and indicates how they might be improved by considering individual buying behaviour. Macro (top-down) and micro (bottom-up) models have been reviewed and analysed. It is found that bottom-up models can project technology diffusion due to their higher resolution. The weakness of existing bottom-up models at capturing individual green technology buying behaviour has been identified. Consequently, Markov chains, neural networks and agent-based modelling are proposed as possible methods to incorporate buying behaviour within a domestic energy forecast model. Among the three methods, agent-based models are found to be the most promising, although a successful agent approach requires large amounts of input data. A prototype agent-based model has been developed and tested, which demonstrates the feasibility of an agent approach. This model shows that an agent-based approach is promising as a means to predict the effectiveness of various policy measures.

PMCRI: a parallel modular classification rule induction framework

In a world where massive amounts of data are recorded on a large scale we need data mining technologies to gain knowledge from the data in a reasonable time. The Top Down Induction of Decision Trees (TDIDT) algorithm is a very widely used technology to predict the classification of newly recorded data. However alternative technologies have been derived that often produce better rules but do not scale well on large datasets. Such an alternative to TDIDT is the PrismTCS algorithm. PrismTCS performs particularly well on noisy data but does not scale well on large datasets. In this paper we introduce Prism and investigate its scaling behaviour. We describe how we improved the scalability of the serial version of Prism and investigate its limitations. We then describe our work to overcome these limitations by developing a framework to parallelise algorithms of the Prism family and similar algorithms. We also present the scale up results of a first prototype implementation.

Parallel rule induction with information theoretic pre-pruning

In a world where data is captured on a large scale the major challenge for data mining algorithms is to be able to scale up to large datasets. There are two main approaches to inducing classification rules, one is the divide and conquer approach, also known as the top down induction of decision trees; the other approach is called the separate and conquer approach. A considerable amount of work has been done on scaling up the divide and conquer approach. However, very little work has been conducted on scaling up the separate and conquer approach.In this work we describe a parallel framework that allows the parallelisation of a certain family of separate and conquer algorithms, the Prism family. Parallelisation helps the Prism family of algorithms to harvest additional computer resources in a network of computers in order to make the induction of classification rules scale better on large datasets. Our framework also incorporates a pre-pruning facility for parallel Prism algorithms.

P-Prism: a computationally efficient approach to scaling up classification rule induction

Top Down Induction of Decision Trees (TDIDT) is the most commonly used method of constructing a model from a dataset in the form of classification rules to classify previously unseen data. Alternative algorithms have been developed such as the Prism algorithm. Prism constructs modular rules which produce qualitatively better rules than rules induced by TDIDT. However, along with the increasing size of databases, many existing rule learning algorithms have proved to be computational expensive on large datasets. To tackle the problem of scalability, parallel classification rule induction algorithms have been introduced. As TDIDT is the most popular classifier, even though there are strongly competitive alternative algorithms, most parallel approaches to inducing classification rules are based on TDIDT. In this paper we describe work on a distributed classifier that induces classification rules in a parallel manner based on Prism.

Towards a computationally efficient approach to modular classification rule induction

Induction of classification rules is one of the most important technologies in data mining. Most of the work in this field has concentrated on the Top Down Induction of Decision Trees (TDIDT) approach. However, alternative approaches have been developed such as the Prism algorithm for inducing modular rules. Prism often produces qualitatively better rules than TDIDT but suffers from higher computational requirements. We investigate approaches that have been developed to minimize the computational requirements of TDIDT, in order to find analogous approaches that could reduce the computational requirements of Prism.

J-PMCRI: a methodology for inducing pre-pruned modular classification rules

Inducing rules from very large datasets is one of the most challenging areas in data mining. Several approaches exist to scaling up classification rule induction to large datasets, namely data reduction and the parallelisation of classification rule induction algorithms. In the area of parallelisation of classification rule induction algorithms most of the work has been concentrated on the Top Down Induction of Decision Trees (TDIDT), also known as the ‘divide and conquer’ approach. However powerful alternative algorithms exist that induce modular rules. Most of these alternative algorithms follow the ‘separate and conquer’ approach of inducing rules, but very little work has been done to make the ‘separate and conquer’ approach scale better on large training data. This paper examines the potential of the recently developed blackboard based J-PMCRI methodology for parallelising modular classification rule induction algorithms that follow the ‘separate and conquer’ approach. A concrete implementation of the methodology is evaluated empirically on very large datasets.

Jmax-pruning: a facility for the information theoretic pruning of modular classification rules

The Prism family of algorithms induces modular classification rules in contrast to the Top Down Induction of Decision Trees (TDIDT) approach which induces classification rules in the intermediate form of a tree structure. Both approaches achieve a comparable classification accuracy. However in some cases Prism outperforms TDIDT. For both approaches pre-pruning facilities have been developed in order to prevent the induced classifiers from overfitting on noisy datasets, by cutting rule terms or whole rules or by truncating decision trees according to certain metrics. There have been many pre-pruning mechanisms developed for the TDIDT approach, but for the Prism family the only existing pre-pruning facility is J-pruning. J-pruning not only works on Prism algorithms but also on TDIDT. Although it has been shown that J-pruning produces good results, this work points out that J-pruning does not use its full potential. The original J-pruning facility is examined and the use of a new pre-pruning facility, called Jmax-pruning, is proposed and evaluated empirically. A possible pre-pruning facility for TDIDT based on Jmax-pruning is also discussed.

Random prism: an alternative to random forests

Ensemble learning techniques generate multiple classifiers, so called base classifiers, whose combined classification results are used in order to increase the overall classification accuracy. In most ensemble classifiers the base classifiers are based on the Top Down Induction of Decision Trees (TDIDT) approach. However, an alternative approach for the induction of rule based classifiers is the Prism family of algorithms. Prism algorithms produce modular classification rules that do not necessarily fit into a decision tree structure. Prism classification rulesets achieve a comparable and sometimes higher classification accuracy compared with decision tree classifiers, if the data is noisy and large. Yet Prism still suffers from overfitting on noisy and large datasets. In practice ensemble techniques tend to reduce the overfitting, however there exists no ensemble learner for modular classification rule inducers such as the Prism family of algorithms. This article describes the first development of an ensemble learner based on the Prism family of algorithms in order to enhance Prism’s classification accuracy by reducing overfitting.

Computationally efficient induction of classification rules with the PMCRI and J-PMCRI frameworks

In order to gain knowledge from large databases, scalable data mining technologies are needed. Data are captured on a large scale and thus databases are increasing at a fast pace. This leads to the utilisation of parallel computing technologies in order to cope with large amounts of data. In the area of classification rule induction, parallelisation of classification rules has focused on the divide and conquer approach, also known as the Top Down Induction of Decision Trees (TDIDT). An alternative approach to classification rule induction is separate and conquer which has only recently been in the focus of parallelisation. This work introduces and evaluates empirically a framework for the parallel induction of classification rules, generated by members of the Prism family of algorithms. All members of the Prism family of algorithms follow the separate and conquer approach.