An event-based approach to validating solar wind speed predictions: high-speed enhancements in the Wang-Sheeley-Arge model

One of the primary goals of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) effort is to assess and improve prediction of the solar wind conditions in near‐Earth space, arising from both quasi‐steady and transient structures. We compare 8 years of L1 in situ observations to predictions of the solar wind speed made by the Wang‐Sheeley‐Arge (WSA) empirical model. The mean‐square error (MSE) between the observed and model predictions is used to reach a number of useful conclusions: there is no systematic lag in the WSA predictions, the MSE is found to be highest at solar minimum and lowest during the rise to solar maximum, and the optimal lead time for 1 AU solar wind speed predictions is found to be 3 days. However, MSE is shown to frequently be an inadequate “figure of merit” for assessing solar wind speed predictions. A complementary, event‐based analysis technique is developed in which high‐speed enhancements (HSEs) are systematically selected and associated from observed and model time series. WSA model is validated using comparisons of the number of hit, missed, and false HSEs, along with the timing and speed magnitude errors between the forecasted and observed events. Morphological differences between the different HSE populations are investigated to aid interpretation of the results and improvements to the model. Finally, by defining discrete events in the time series, model predictions from above and below the ecliptic plane can be used to estimate an uncertainty in the predicted HSE arrival times.

Predictions of the arrival time of coronal mass ejections at 1AU: an analysis of the causes of errors

Three existing models of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) transit between the Sun and the Earth are compared to coronagraph and in situ observations: all three models are found to perform with a similar level of accuracy (i.e. an average error between observed and predicted 1AU transit times of approximately 11 h). To improve long-term space weather prediction, factors influencing CME transit are investigated. Both the removal of the plane of sky projection (as suffered by coronagraph derived speeds of Earth directed CMEs) and the use of observed values of solar wind speed, fail to significantly improve transit time prediction. However, a correlation is found to exist between the late/early arrival of an ICME and the width of the preceding sheath region, suggesting that the error is a geometrical effect that can only be removed by a more accurate determination of a CME trajectory and expansion. The correlation between magnetic field intensity and speed of ejecta at 1AU is also investigated. It is found to be weak in the body of the ICME, but strong in the sheath, if the upstream solar wind conditions are taken into account.

Errors associated with preparation of adult and paediatric parenteral nutrition in UK hospital pharmacies

Rationale: In UK hospitals, the preparation of all total parenteral nutrition (TPN) products must be made in the pharmacy as TPNs are categorised as high-risk injectables (NPSA/2007/20). The National Aseptic Error Reporting Scheme has been collecting data on pharmacy compounding errors in the UK since August 2003. This study reports on types of error associated with the preparation of TPNs, including the stage at which these were identified and potential and actual patient outcomes. Methods: Reports of compounding errors for the period 1/2004 - 3/2007 were analysed on an Excel spreadsheet. Results: Of a total of 3691 compounding error reports, 674 (18%) related to TPN products; 548 adult vs. 126 paediatric. A significantly higher proportion of adult TPNs (28% vs. 13% paediatric) were associated with labelling errors and a significantly higher proportion of paediatric TPNs (25% vs. 15% adult) were associated with incorrect transcriptions (Chi-Square Test; p<0.005). Labelling errors were identified equally by pharmacists (42%) and technicians (48%) with technicians detecting mainly at first check and pharmacists at final check. Transcription errors were identified mainly by technicians (65% vs. 27% pharmacist) at first check. Incorrect drug selection (13%) and calculation errors (9%) were associated with adult and paediatric TPN preparations in the same ratio. One paediatric TPN error detected at first check was considered potentially catastrophic; 31 (5%) errors were considered of major and 38 (6%) of moderate potential consequence. Five errors (2 moderate, 1 minor) were identified during or after administration. Conclusions: While recent UK patient safety initiatives are aimed at improving the safety of injectable medicines in clinical areas, the current study highlights safety problems that exist within pharmacy production units. This could be used in the creation of an error management tool for TPN compounding processes within hospital pharmacies.

The impact of a closed-loop electronic prescribing and administration system on prescribing errors, administration errors and staff time: a before-and-after study

Objectives: To assess the impact of a closed-loop electronic prescribing, automated dispensing, barcode patient identification and electronic medication administration record (EMAR) system on prescribing and administration errors, confirmation of patient identity before administration, and staff time. Design, setting and participants: Before-and-after study in a surgical ward of a teaching hospital, involving patients and staff of that ward. Intervention: Closed-loop electronic prescribing, automated dispensing, barcode patient identification and EMAR system. Main outcome measures: Percentage of new medication orders with a prescribing error, percentage of doses with medication administration errors (MAEs) and percentage given without checking patient identity. Time spent prescribing and providing a ward pharmacy service. Nursing time on medication tasks. Results: Prescribing errors were identified in 3.8% of 2450 medication orders pre-intervention and 2.0% of 2353 orders afterwards (p<0.001; χ2 test). MAEs occurred in 7.0% of 1473 non-intravenous doses pre-intervention and 4.3% of 1139 afterwards (p = 0.005; χ2 test). Patient identity was not checked for 82.6% of 1344 doses pre-intervention and 18.9% of 1291 afterwards (p<0.001; χ2 test). Medical staff required 15 s to prescribe a regular inpatient drug pre-intervention and 39 s afterwards (p = 0.03; t test). Time spent providing a ward pharmacy service increased from 68 min to 98 min each weekday (p = 0.001; t test); 22% of drug charts were unavailable pre-intervention. Time per drug administration round decreased from 50 min to 40 min (p = 0.006; t test); nursing time on medication tasks outside of drug rounds increased from 21.1% to 28.7% (p = 0.006; χ2 test). Conclusions: A closed-loop electronic prescribing, dispensing and barcode patient identification system reduced prescribing errors and MAEs, and increased confirmation of patient identity before administration. Time spent on medication-related tasks increased.

Characterising the background errors for the boundary-layer capping inversion

The one-dimensional variational assimilation of vertical temperature information in the presence of a boundary-layer capping inversion is studied. For an optimal analysis of the vertical temperature profile, an accurate representation of the background error covariances is essential. The background error covariances are highly flow-dependent due to the variability in the presence, structure and height of the boundary-layer capping inversion. Flow-dependent estimates of the background error covariances are shown by studying the spread in an ensemble of forecasts. A forecast of the temperature profile (used as a background state) may have a significant error in the position of the capping inversion with respect to observations. It is shown that the assimilation of observations may weaken the inversion structure in the analysis if only magnitude errors are accounted for as is the case for traditional data assimilation methods used for operational weather prediction. The positional error is treated explicitly here in a new data assimilation scheme to reduce positional error, in addition to the traditional framework to reduce magnitude error. The distribution of the positional error of the background inversion is estimated for use with the new scheme.

Errors in "Wavefunctions for the methane molecule"

Two errors in my paper “Wave functions for the methane molecule” [1] are corrected. They concern my f-harmonic approximation to the wave-function in the equilibrium configuration, for which the final expression for the wave function, the energy lowering, and the density function were all in error.

Effect of type and timing of oil supplements to sows during pregnancy on the growth performance and endocrine profile of low and normal birth weight offspring

Eighty-eight multiparous sows were used to evaluate whether type and timing of oil supplementation during gestation influences the incidence of low birth weight (LBW). Sows were allocated (eight per treatment) commercial sow pellets (3 kg/d; control diet) or an experimental diet consisting of control diet plus 10 % extra energy in the form of excess pellets, palm oil, olive oil (OO), sunflower oil (SO) or fish oil; experimental diets were fed during either the first half (G1) or second half (G2) of gestation. Growth performance and endocrine profile of LBW ( < 1·09 kg) and normal birth weight (NBW; 1·46–1·64 kg) offspring were compared. Maternal dietary supplementation altered the distribution curve for piglet birth weight. SOG1 sows had a greater proportion of LBW piglets (P < 0·05), whilst it was reduced in the OOG1 group (P < 0·05). Growth rate of LBW piglets was lower compared with their NBW siblings (P < 0·05) when dietary supplementation was offered in G2 but were similar for G1. At birth, LBW offspring of supplemented animals possessed more fat compared with the control group (P < 0·05); LBW offspring of control animals exhibited a more rapid decline in fat free mass/kg prior to weaning. Plasma metabolites and insulin concentrations were influenced by maternal diet and birth weight. In conclusion, maternal dietary supplementation altered the distribution of piglet birth weights and improved the energy status of LBW piglets. Supplementation with MUFA during G1 reduced the incidence of LBW, whereas PUFA had the reverse effect.

The timing of eukaryotic evolution: Does a relaxed molecular clock reconcile proteins and fossils?

The use of nucleotide and amino acid sequences allows improved understanding of the timing of evolutionary events of life on earth. Molecular estimates of divergence times are, however, controversial and are generally much more ancient than suggested by the fossil record. The limited number of genes and species explored and pervasive variations in evolutionary rates are the most likely sources of such discrepancies. Here we compared concatenated amino acid sequences of 129 proteins from 36 eukaryotes to determine the divergence times of several major clades, including animals, fungi, plants, and various protists. Due to significant variations in their evolutionary rates, and to handle the uncertainty of the fossil record, we used a Bayesian relaxed molecular clock simultaneously calibrated by six paleontological constraints. We show that, according to 95% credibility intervals, the eukaryotic kingdoms diversified 950-1,259 million years ago (Mya), animals diverged from choanoflagellates 761-957 Mya, and the debated age of the split between protostomes and deuterostomes occurred 642-761 Mya. The divergence times appeared to be robust with respect to prior assumptions and paleontological calibrations. Interestingly, these relaxed clock time estimates are much more recent than those obtained under the assumption of a global molecular clock, yet bilaterian diversification appears to be approximate to100 million years more ancient than the Cambrian boundary.

Timing and the holding periods of institutional real estate

Literature on investors' holding periods for securities suggests that high transaction costs are associated with longer holding periods. Return volatility, by contrast, is associated with shorter holding periods. In real estate, high transaction costs and illiquidity imply longer holding periods. Research on depreciation and obsolescence suggests that there might be an optimal holding period. Sales rates and holding periods for U.K. institutional real estate are analyzed, using a proportional hazards model, over an 18-year period. The results show longer holding periods than those claimed by investors, with marked differences by type of property and over time. The results shed light on investor behavior.

Description of a multifaceted strategy for recruiting general practitioners and community pharmacists to talk about medication errors

Objective: To describe the use of a multifaceted strategy for recruiting general practitioners (GPs) and community pharmacists to talk about medication errors which have resulted in preventable drug-related admissions to hospital. This is a potentially sensitive subject with medicolegal implications. Setting: Four primary care trusts and one teaching hospital in the UK. Method: Letters were mailed to community pharmacists and general practitioners asking for provisional consent to be interviewed and permission to contact them again should a patient be admitted to hospital as a result of a medication error. In addition, GPs were asked for permission to approach their patients should they be admitted to hospital. A multifaceted approach to recruitment was used including gaining support for the study from professional defence agencies and local champions. Key findings: Eighty-five percent (310/385) of GPs and 62% (93/149) of community pharmacists responded to the letters. Eighty-five percent (266/310) of GPs who responded and 81% (75/93) of community pharmacists who responded gave provisional consent to participate in interviews. All GPs (14 out of 14) and community pharmacists (10 out of 10) who were subsequently asked to participate, when patients were admitted to hospital, agreed to be interviewed. Conclusion: The multifaceted approach to recruitment was associated with an impressive response when asking healthcare professionals to be interviewed about medication errors which have resulted in preventable drug-related morbidity.

Protocol for the PINCER trial: a cluster randomised trial comparing the effectiveness of a pharmacist-led IT-based intervention with simple feedback in reducing rates of clinically important errors in medicines management in general practices

Background: Medication errors are an important cause of morbidity and mortality in primary care. The aims of this study are to determine the effectiveness, cost effectiveness and acceptability of a pharmacist-led information-technology-based complex intervention compared with simple feedback in reducing proportions of patients at risk from potentially hazardous prescribing and medicines management in general (family) practice. Methods: Research subject group: "At-risk" patients registered with computerised general practices in two geographical regions in England. Design: Parallel group pragmatic cluster randomised trial. Interventions: Practices will be randomised to either: (i) Computer-generated feedback; or (ii) Pharmacist-led intervention comprising of computer-generated feedback, educational outreach and dedicated support. Primary outcome measures: The proportion of patients in each practice at six and 12 months post intervention: - with a computer-recorded history of peptic ulcer being prescribed non-selective non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs - with a computer-recorded diagnosis of asthma being prescribed beta-blockers - aged 75 years and older receiving long-term prescriptions for angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors or loop diuretics without a recorded assessment of renal function and electrolytes in the preceding 15 months. Secondary outcome measures; These relate to a number of other examples of potentially hazardous prescribing and medicines management. Economic analysis: An economic evaluation will be done of the cost per error avoided, from the perspective of the UK National Health Service (NHS), comparing the pharmacist-led intervention with simple feedback. Qualitative analysis: A qualitative study will be conducted to explore the views and experiences of health care professionals and NHS managers concerning the interventions, and investigate possible reasons why the interventions prove effective, or conversely prove ineffective. Sample size: 34 practices in each of the two treatment arms would provide at least 80% power (two-tailed alpha of 0.05) to demonstrate a 50% reduction in error rates for each of the three primary outcome measures in the pharmacist-led intervention arm compared with a 11% reduction in the simple feedback arm. Discussion: At the time of submission of this article, 72 general practices have been recruited (36 in each arm of the trial) and the interventions have been delivered. Analysis has not yet been undertaken.

The prompt hypothesis: clarification requests as corrective input for grammatical errors

The potential of clarification questions (CQs) to act as a form of corrective input for young children's grammatical errors was examined. Corrective responses were operationalized as those occasions when child speech shifted from erroneous to correct (E -> C) contingent on a clarification question. It was predicted that E -> C sequences would prevail over shifts in the opposite direction (C -> E), as can occur in the case of nonerror-contingent CQs. This prediction was tested via a standard intervention paradigm, whereby every 60s a sequence of two clarification requests (either specific or general) was introduced into conversation with a total of 45 2- and 4-year-old children. For 10 categories of grammatical structure, E -> C sequences predominated over their C -> E counterparts, with levels of E -> C shifts increasing after two clarification questions. Children were also more reluctant to repeat erroneous forms than their correct counterparts, following the intervention of CQs. The findings provide support for Saxton's prompt hypothesis, which predicts that error-contingent CQs bear the potential to cue recall of previously acquired grammatical forms.

The effect of cleft lip and palate, and the timing of lip repair on mother-infant interactions and infant development

Background: Children with cleft lip and palate are at risk for psychological problems. Difficulties in mother-child interactions may be relevant, and could be affected by the timing of lip repair. Method: We assessed cognitive development, behaviour problems, and attachment in 94 infants with cleft lip (with and without cleft palate) and 96 non-affected control infants at 18 months; mother-infant interactions were assessed at two, six and 12 months. Index infants received either 'early', neonatal, lip repair, or 'late' repair (3-4 months). Results: Index infants did not differ from controls on measures of behaviour problems or attachment, regardless of timing of lip repair; however, infants having late lip repair performed worse on the Bayley Scales of Mental Development; the cognitive development of early repair infants was not impaired. Difficulties in early mother-infant interactions mediated the effects of late lip repair on infant cognitive outcome. Conclusions: Early interaction difficulties between mothers and infants having late repair of cleft lip are associated with poor cognitive functioning at 18 months. Interventions to facilitate mother-infant interactions prior to surgical lip repair should be explored.

Interceptive timing: prior knowledge matters

Fast interceptive actions, such as catching a ball, rely upon accurate and precise information from vision. Recent models rely on flexible combinations of visual angle and its rate of expansion of which the tau parameter is a specific case. When an object approaches an observer, however, its trajectory may introduce bias into tau-like parameters that render these computations unacceptable as the sole source of information for actions. Here we show that observer knowledge of object size influences their action timing, and known size combined with image expansion simplifies the computations required to make interceptive actions and provides a route for experience to influence interceptive action.

Impact of transmission errors in enhanced relay-enabled distributed coordination function

This paper analyzes the performance of Enhanced relay-enabled Distributed Coordination Function (ErDCF) for wireless ad hoc networks under transmission errors. The idea of ErDCF is to use high data rate nodes to work as relays for the low data rate nodes. ErDCF achieves higher throughput and reduces energy consumption compared to IEEE 802.11 Distributed Coordination Function (DCF) in an ideal channel environment. However, there is a possibility that this expected gain may decrease in the presence of transmission errors. In this work, we modify the saturation throughput model of ErDCF to accurately reflect the impact of transmission errors under different rate combinations. It turns out that the throughput gain of ErDCF can still be maintained under reasonable link quality and distance.