Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years

Volcanic eruptions contribute to climate variability, but quantifying these contributions has been limited by inconsistencies in the timing of atmospheric volcanic aerosol loading determined from ice cores and subsequent cooling from climate proxies such as tree rings. Here we resolve these inconsistencies and show that large eruptions in the tropics and high latitudes were primary drivers of interannual-to-decadal temperature variability in the Northern Hemisphere during the past 2,500 years. Our results are based on new records of atmospheric aerosol loading developed from high-resolution, multi-parameter measurements from an array of Greenland and Antarctic ice cores as well as distinctive age markers to constrain chronologies. Overall, cooling was proportional to the magnitude of volcanic forcing and persisted for up to ten years after some of the largest eruptive episodes. Our revised timescale more firmly implicates volcanic eruptions as catalysts in the major sixth-century pandemics, famines, and socioeconomic disruptions in Eurasia and Mesoamerica while allowing multi-millennium quantification of climate response to volcanic forcing.

Cessation of facial growth in subjects with short, average, and long facial types - Implications for the timing of implant placement

Placement of a single-tooth implant should be performed when a patient's facial growth has ceased. In this retrospective observational study, we evaluated if there was a difference in the timing of cessation of craniofacial growth in short, average, and long facial types. Based on the value of the angle between cranial base and mandibular plane (SN/MP angle), three groups comprising 48 subjects with short facial type (SF; SN/MP ≤28°), 77 with average facial type (AF; SN/MP ≥31.5° and ≤34.5°), and 44 with long facial type (LF; SN/MP ≥38°) were selected. Facial growth was assessed on lateral cephalograms taken at 15.4 years of age, and 2, 5, and 10 years later. Variables were considered to be stable when the difference between two successive measurements was less than 1 mm or 1°. We found no difference between facial types in the timing of cessation of facial growth. Depending on the variable, the mean age when variables became stable ranged from 18.0 years (Is-Pal in LF group) to 22.0 years (SN/MP in LF group). However, facial growth continued at the last follow-up in approximately 20% subjects. This study demonstrates that facial type is not associated with the timing of cessation of facial growth.

The timing of extraction of non-restorable first permanent molars: a systematic review.

AIM To identify the ideal timing of first permanent molar extraction to reduce the future need for orthodontic treatment. MATERIALS AND METHODS A computerised database and subsequent manual search was performed using Medline database, Embase and Ovid, covering the period from January 1946 to February 2013. Two reviewers (JE and ME) extracted the data independently and evaluated if the studies matched the inclusion criteria. Inclusion criteria were specification of the follow-up with clinical examination or analysis of models, specification of the chronological age or dental developmental stage at the time of extraction, no treatment in between, classification of the treatment result into perfect, good, average and poor. The search was limited to human studies and no language limitations were set. RESULTS The search strategy resulted in 18 full-text articles, of which 6 met the inclusion criteria. By pooling the data from maxillary sites, good to perfect clinical outcome was estimated in 72% (95% confidence interval 63%-82%). Extractions at the age of 8-10.5 years tended to show better spontaneous clinical outcomes compared to the other age groups. By pooling the data from mandibular sites, extractions performed at the age of 8-10.5 and 10.5-11.5 years showed significantly superior spontaneous clinical outcome with a probability of 50% and 59% likelihood, respectively, to achieve good to perfect clinical result (p<0.05) compared to the other age groups (<8 years of age: 34%, >11.5 years of age: 44%). CONCLUSION Prevention of complications after first permanent molars extractions is an important issue. The overall success rate of spontaneous clinical outcome for maxillary extraction of first permanent molars was superior to mandibular extraction. Extractions of mandibular first permanent molars should be performed between 8 and 11.5 years of age in order to achieve a good spontaneous clinical outcome. For the extraction in the maxilla, no firm conclusions concerning the ideal extraction timing could be drawn.

Timing of extreme drought modifies reproductive output in semi-natural grassland

Questions Do extreme dry spells in late summer or in spring affect abundance and species composition of the reproductive shoots and the seed rain in the next annual crop? Are drought effects on reproductive shoots related to the rooting depths of species? Location Species-rich semi-natural grassland at Negrentino, Switzerland. Methods In plots under automated rain-out shelters, rainwater was added to simulate normal conditions and compare them with two experimentally effected long dry spells, in late summer (2004) and in the following spring (2005). For 28 plots, numbers of reproductive shoots per species were counted in 1-m2 areas and seed rain was estimated using nine sticky traps of 102 cm2 after dry spells. Results The two extreme dry spells in late summer and spring were similar in length and their probability of recurrence. They independently reduced the subsequent reproductive output of the community, while their seasonal timing modified its species composition. Compared to drought in spring, drought in late summer reduced soil moisture more and reduced the number of reproductive shoots of more species. The negative effects of summer drought decreased with species’ rooting depth. The shallow-rooted graminoids showed a consistent susceptibility to summer drought, while legumes and other forbs showed more varied responses to both droughts. Spring drought strongly reduced density (–53%) and species richness (–43%) of the community seed rain, while summer drought had only a marginally significant impact on seed density of graminoids (–44%). Reductions in seed number per shoot vs reproductive shoot density distinguished the impacts of drought with respect to its seasonal timing. Conclusion The essentially negative impact of drought in different seasons on reproductive output suggests that more frequent dry spells could contribute to local plant diversity loss by aggravating seed deficiency in species-rich grassland.

Interannual Variability in Timing of Bloom Initiation in the California Current System

In the California Current System the spring transition from poleward to equatorward alongshore wind stress heralds the beginning of upwelling-favorable conditions. The phytoplankton response to this transition is investigated using 8 years ( 1998-2005) of daily, 4-km resolution, Sea-viewing Wide Field of view Sensor ( SeaWiFS) chlorophyll a concentration data. Cluster analysis of the chlorophyll a time series at each location is used to separate the inshore upwelling region from offshore and oligotrophic areas. An objective method for estimating the timing of bloom initiation is used to construct a map of the mean bloom start date. Interannual variability in bloom timing and magnitude is investigated in four regions: 45 degrees N - 50 degrees N, 40 degrees N - 45 degrees N, 35 degrees N - 40 degrees N and 20 degrees N - 35 degrees N. Daily satellite derived wind data ( QuikSCAT) allow the timing of the first episode of persistently upwelling favorable winds to be estimated. Bloom initiation generally coincides with the onset of upwelling winds ( +/- 15 days). South of similar to 35 degrees N, where winds are southward year-round, the timing of increased chlorophyll concentration corresponds closely to timing of the seasonal increase in upwelling intensity. A 1-D model and satellite derived photosynthetically available radiation data are used to estimate time series of depth- averaged irradiance. In the far north of the region (> 46 degrees N) light is shown to limit phytoplankton growth in early spring. In 2005 the spring bloom in the northern regions (> 35 degrees N) had a "false start''. A sharp increase in chl a in February quickly receded, and a sustained increase in biomass was delayed until July. We hypothesize that this resulted in a mismatch in timing of food availability to higher trophic levels.

A sex difference in seasonal timing of birth in a livebearing fish

Sex differences in seasonal timing include differences in hatch- or birth-date distribution and differences in the timing of migration or maturation such as protandrous arrival timing (PAT), which is early male arrival at breeding sites. I describe a novel form of protandrous arrival timing, as a sex difference in birth-date distribution in a live-bearing fish (Dwarf Perch, Micrometrus minimus). In this species, birth coincides with arrival at breeding sites because newborn males are sexually active. A series of samples of pregnant females and young of year was collected in Tomales Bay, CA. I analyzed the daily age record in otoliths to estimate the conception date of broods and the age that young-of-year individuals were born. Males were born at a younger age than females, as indicated by the daily age record and also by the predominance of females in broods from which some young had already been born, which was a common occurrence in pregnant females with older embryos. Sex ratio of broods varied with conception date such that early-season broods were predominantly male, possibly as a result of temperature-dependent sex determination. The combined effects of the sex difference in age at birth and seasonal shift in sex ratio were to shift the mean birth date of males relative to females by five days. The most likely ultimate explanation for PAT in the Dwarf Perch is that it arises from exploitation (scramble) competition for mating opportunities among recently-born young-of-year males.

The Geographic Distribution of the Size and Timing of Monetary Policy Actions

This paper examines the magnitude and timing of the effects of changes in the monetary base on the aggregate and regional changes in bank loans within the United States. We consider both Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) regions, and individual states and the District of Columbia for our regional analysis. The empirical analysis provides some insight on the bank-lending channel of monetary policy. We find strong evidence of a 4-quarter lag in the effect of changes in the monetary base on bank loans. That finding proves robust across all regions and nearly all states.

Fall Fertilization Timing Effects on Nitrate Leaching and Turfgrass Color and Growth

Fall season fertilization is a widely recommended practice for turfgrass. Fertilizer applied in the fall, however, may be subject to substantial leaching losses. A field study was conducted in Connecticut to determine the timing effects of fall fertilization on nitrate N (NO3-N) leaching, turf color, shoot density, and root mass of a 90% Kentucky bluegrass (Poa pratensis L.), 10% creeping red fescue (Festuca rubra L.) lawn. Treatments consisted of the date of fall fertilization: 15 September, 15 October, 15 November, 15 December, or control which received no fall fertilizer. Percolate water was collected weekly with soil monolith lysimeters. Mean log10 NO3-N concentrations in percolate were higher for fall fertilized treatments than for the control. Mean NO3-N mass collected in percolate water was linearly related to the date of fertilizer application, with higher NO3-N loss for later application dates. Applying fall fertilizer improved turf color and density but there were no differences in color or density among applications made between 15 October and 15 December. These findings suggest that the current recommendation of applying N in mid- to late November in southern New England may not be compatible with water quality goals.

A study of the association between timing of solid food introduction in infants and overweight and obesity in pre-school aged children in NHANES 2003-2008

Background. Previous studies suggest an association between timing of introduction of solid food and increased risk of obesity in pre-school aged children, but no study included a representative sample of US children. We sought to examine whether there was any association between the timing of solid food introduction and overweight/obesity in pre-school aged children. Design/methods. Cross-sectional study of a nationally representative sample (N=2050) of US children aged 2 to 5 years with information on infant feeding practices and measured weight and height from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003–2008. The main outcome measure was BMI for age and sex ≥ 85th percentile. The main exposure was timing of solid food introduction at < 4, 4–5, or ≥ 6 months of age. Binomial logistic regression was used in the analysis controlling for child's sex, birth weight and breastfeeding status as well as maternal age at birth, smoking status and socio-demographic variables. Results. Two thousand and fifty children were included in the sample; 51% male and 49% female; 57.1% Non-Hispanic White, 21.9% Hispanic, 14.0% Non-Hispanic Black, and 7% other race/ethnicity. Twenty-two percent of the children were overweight or obese. Sixty-nine percent were breastfed or fed breast milk at birth and 36% continued breastfeeding for ≥ six months. Solid foods were introduced before 4 months of age for 11.2% of the children; 30.3% received solid foods between 4 to 5 months; with 58.6% receiving solid foods at 6 months or later. Timing of solid food introduction was not associated with weight status (OR= 1.36, 95% CI [0.83–2.24]). Formula-fed infants and infants breastfed for < 4 months had increased odds of overweight and obesity (OR=1.54, 95% CI [1.05–2.27] and OR= 1.60, 95% CI [1.05–2.44], respectively) when compared to infants breastfed for ≥ 6 months. Conclusion. Timing of solid food introduction was not associated with weight status in a national sample of US children ages 2 to 5 years. More focus should be placed on promoting breastfeeding and healthy infant feeding practices as strategies to prevent obesity in children. ^

Application of the general linear model to assess the effect of missing data on bone marrow mononuclear cell therapy with infusion timing and follow-up MRI

With most clinical trials, missing data presents a statistical problem in evaluating a treatment's efficacy. There are many methods commonly used to assess missing data; however, these methods leave room for bias to enter the study. This thesis was a secondary analysis on data taken from TIME, a phase 2 randomized clinical trial conducted to evaluate the safety and effect of the administration timing of bone marrow mononuclear cells (BMMNC) for subjects with acute myocardial infarction (AMI).^ We evaluated the effect of missing data by comparing the variance inflation factor (VIF) of the effect of therapy between all subjects and only subjects with complete data. Through the general linear model, an unbiased solution was made for the VIF of the treatment's efficacy using the weighted least squares method to incorporate missing data. Two groups were identified from the TIME data: 1) all subjects and 2) subjects with complete data (baseline and follow-up measurements). After the general solution was found for the VIF, it was migrated Excel 2010 to evaluate data from TIME. The resulting numerical value from the two groups was compared to assess the effect of missing data.^ The VIF values from the TIME study were considerably less in the group with missing data. By design, we varied the correlation factor in order to evaluate the VIFs of both groups. As the correlation factor increased, the VIF values increased at a faster rate in the group with only complete data. Furthermore, while varying the correlation factor, the number of subjects with missing data was also varied to see how missing data affects the VIF. When subjects with only baseline data was increased, we saw a significant rate increase in VIF values in the group with only complete data while the group with missing data saw a steady and consistent increase in the VIF. The same was seen when we varied the group with follow-up only data. This essentially showed that the VIFs steadily increased when missing data is not ignored. When missing data is ignored as with our comparison group, the VIF values sharply increase as correlation increases.^

The number and timing of time -dependent covariate measurements for the Cox regression model

The problem of analyzing data with updated measurements in the time-dependent proportional hazards model arises frequently in practice. One available option is to reduce the number of intervals (or updated measurements) to be included in the Cox regression model. We empirically investigated the bias of the estimator of the time-dependent covariate while varying the effect of failure rate, sample size, true values of the parameters and the number of intervals. We also evaluated how often a time-dependent covariate needs to be collected and assessed the effect of sample size and failure rate on the power of testing a time-dependent effect.^ A time-dependent proportional hazards model with two binary covariates was considered. The time axis was partitioned into k intervals. The baseline hazard was assumed to be 1 so that the failure times were exponentially distributed in the ith interval. A type II censoring model was adopted to characterize the failure rate. The factors of interest were sample size (500, 1000), type II censoring with failure rates of 0.05, 0.10, and 0.20, and three values for each of the non-time-dependent and time-dependent covariates (1/4,1/2,3/4).^ The mean of the bias of the estimator of the coefficient of the time-dependent covariate decreased as sample size and number of intervals increased whereas the mean of the bias increased as failure rate and true values of the covariates increased. The mean of the bias of the estimator of the coefficient was smallest when all of the updated measurements were used in the model compared with two models that used selected measurements of the time-dependent covariate. For the model that included all the measurements, the coverage rates of the estimator of the coefficient of the time-dependent covariate was in most cases 90% or more except when the failure rate was high (0.20). The power associated with testing a time-dependent effect was highest when all of the measurements of the time-dependent covariate were used. An example from the Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program Cooperative Research Group is presented. ^

Effectiveness of Foliar Fungicides by Timing on Hybrid Corn

Fungicides were rarely used on hybrid corn prior to 2007, however, in the past few years, some farmers have included fungicides in their common crop production, particularly as the value of grain has increased. Fungicides are recommended for foliar disease management to protect yield potential. There also have been reports of increased yields in the absence of disease. A number of fungicides are registered for use on corn. The objectives of this project were to evaluate the yield response of hybrid corn to foliar fungicide application at various timings.

Effectiveness of Foliar Fungicides by Timing on Hybrid Corn

Fungicide use on hybrid corn has increased considerably in the past four growing seasons primarily due to reports of increased yields, even in the absence of disease and higher corn prices. A number of fungicides are registered for use on corn. The objectives of this project were to 1) assess the effect of timing of application of fungicides on standability, 2) evaluate the yield response of hybrid corn to foliar fungicide application, and 3) to discern differences, if any, between fungicide products.