Metaheuristic approach to the Holt-Winters optimal short term load forecast

Electricity short-term load forecast is very important for the operation of power systems. In this work a classical exponential smoothing model, the Holt-Winters with double seasonality was used to test for accurate predictions applied to the Portuguese demand time series. Some metaheuristic algorithms for the optimal selection of the smoothing parameters of the Holt-Winters forecast function were used and the results after testing in the time series showed little differences among methods, so the use of the simple local search algorithms is recommended as they are easier to implement.

Metaheuristhic approach to the Holt-Winters optimal short term load forecast

Electricity short-term load forecast is very important for the operation of power systems. In this work a classical exponential smoothing model, the Holt-Winters with double seasonality was used to test for accurate predictions applied to the Portuguese demand time series. Some metaheuristic algorithms for the optimal selection of the smoothing parameters of the Holt-Winters forecast function were used and the results after testing in the time series showed little differences among methods, so the use of the simple local search algorithms is recommended as they are easier to implement.

Response time analysis of COTS-Based multicores considering the contention on the shared memory bus

The current industry trend is towards using Commercially available Off-The-Shelf (COTS) based multicores for developing real time embedded systems, as opposed to the usage of custom-made hardware. In typical implementation of such COTS-based multicores, multiple cores access the main memory via a shared bus. This often leads to contention on this shared channel, which results in an increase of the response time of the tasks. Analyzing this increased response time, considering the contention on the shared bus, is challenging on COTS-based systems mainly because bus arbitration protocols are often undocumented and the exact instants at which the shared bus is accessed by tasks are not explicitly controlled by the operating system scheduler; they are instead a result of cache misses. This paper makes three contributions towards analyzing tasks scheduled on COTS-based multicores. Firstly, we describe a method to model the memory access patterns of a task. Secondly, we apply this model to analyze the worst case response time for a set of tasks. Although the required parameters to obtain the request profile can be obtained by static analysis, we provide an alternative method to experimentally obtain them by using performance monitoring counters (PMCs). We also compare our work against an existing approach and show that our approach outperforms it by providing tighter upper-bound on the number of bus requests generated by a task.

Analysis of temperature time-series: embedding dynamics into the MDS method

Global warming and the associated climate changes are being the subject of intensive research due to their major impact on social, economic and health aspects of the human life. Surface temperature time-series characterise Earth as a slow dynamics spatiotemporal system, evidencing long memory behaviour, typical of fractional order systems. Such phenomena are difficult to model and analyse, demanding for alternative approaches. This paper studies the complex correlations between global temperature time-series using the Multidimensional scaling (MDS) approach. MDS provides a graphical representation of the pattern of climatic similarities between regions around the globe. The similarities are quantified through two mathematical indices that correlate the monthly average temperatures observed in meteorological stations, over a given period of time. Furthermore, time dynamics is analysed by performing the MDS analysis over slices sampling the time series. MDS generates maps describing the stations’ locus in the perspective that, if they are perceived to be similar to each other, then they are placed on the map forming clusters. We show that MDS provides an intuitive and useful visual representation of the complex relationships that are present among temperature time-series, which are not perceived on traditional geographic maps. Moreover, MDS avoids sensitivity to the irregular distribution density of the meteorological stations.

A fractional approach to the Fermi-Pasta-Ulam problem

This paper studies the Fermi-Pasta-Ulam problem having in mind the generalization provided by Fractional Calculus (FC). The study starts by addressing the classical formulation, based on the standard integer order differential calculus and evaluates the time and frequency responses. A first generalization to be investigated consists in the direct replacement of the springs by fractional elements of the dissipative type. It is observed that the responses settle rapidly and no relevant phenomena occur. A second approach consists of replacing the springs by a blend of energy extracting and energy inserting elements of symmetrical fractional order with amplitude modulated by quadratic terms. The numerical results reveal a response close to chaotic behaviour.

Enhanced Race-to-halt: a leakage-aware energy management approach for dynamic priority systems

With progressing CMOS technology miniaturization, the leakage power consumption starts to dominate the dynamic power consumption. The recent technology trends have equipped the modern embedded processors with the several sleep states and reduced their overhead (energy/time) of the sleep transition. The dynamic voltage frequency scaling (DVFS) potential to save energy is diminishing due to efficient (low overhead) sleep states and increased static (leakage) power consumption. The state-of-the-art research on static power reduction at system level is based on assumptions that cannot easily be integrated into practical systems. We propose a novel enhanced race-to-halt approach (ERTH) to reduce the overall system energy consumption. The exhaustive simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach showing an improvement of up to 8 % over an existing work.

Towards a flexible and dynamic replication control for distributed real-time embedded systems with QoS interdependencies

Replication is a proven concept for increasing the availability of distributed systems. However, actively replicating every software component in distributed embedded systems may not be a feasible approach. Not only the available resources are often limited, but also the imposed overhead could significantly degrade the system's performance. The paper proposes heuristics to dynamically determine which components to replicate based on their significance to the system as a whole, its consequent number of passive replicas, and where to place those replicas in the network. The results show that the proposed heuristics achieve a reasonably higher system's availability than static offline decisions when lower replication ratios are imposed due to resource or cost limitations. The paper introduces a novel approach to coordinate the activation of passive replicas in interdependent distributed environments. The proposed distributed coordination model reduces the complexity of the needed interactions among nodes and is faster to converge to a globally acceptable solution than a traditional centralised approach.

A capacity sharing and stealing strategy for open real-time systems

This paper focuses on the scheduling of tasks with hard and soft real-time constraints in open and dynamic real-time systems. It starts by presenting a capacity sharing and stealing (CSS) strategy that supports the coexistence of guaranteed and non-guaranteed bandwidth servers to efficiently handle soft-tasks’ overloads by making additional capacity available from two sources: (i) reclaiming unused reserved capacity when jobs complete in less than their budgeted execution time and (ii) stealing reserved capacity from inactive non-isolated servers used to schedule best-effort jobs. CSS is then combined with the concept of bandwidth inheritance to efficiently exchange reserved bandwidth among sets of inter-dependent tasks which share resources and exhibit precedence constraints, assuming no previous information on critical sections and computation times is available. The proposed Capacity Exchange Protocol (CXP) has a better performance and a lower overhead when compared against other available solutions and introduces a novel approach to integrate precedence constraints among tasks of open real-time systems.

Assigning real-time tasks on heterogeneous multiprocessors with two types of processors

Consider the problem of scheduling a set of implicitdeadline sporadic tasks on a heterogeneous multiprocessor so as to meet all deadlines. Tasks cannot migrate and the platform is restricted in that each processor is either of type-1 or type-2 (with each task characterized by a different speed of execution upon each type of processor). We present an algorithm for this problem with a timecomplexity of O(n·m), where n is the number of tasks and m is the number of processors. It offers the guarantee that if a task set can be scheduled by any non-migrative algorithm to meet deadlines then our algorithm meets deadlines as well if given processors twice as fast. Although this result is proven for only a restricted heterogeneous multiprocessor, we consider it significant for being the first realtime scheduling algorithm to use a low-complexity binpacking approach to schedule tasks on a heterogeneous multiprocessor with provably good performance.

Notional processors: an approach for multiprocessor scheduling

Consider the problem of designing an algorithm with a high utilisation bound for scheduling sporadic tasks with implicit deadlines on identical processors. A task is characterised by its minimum interarrival time and its execution time. Task preemption and migration is permitted. Still, low preemption and migration counts are desirable. We formulate an algorithm with a utilisation bound no less than 66.¯6%, characterised by worst-case preemption counts comparing favorably against the state-of-the-art.

An implicit GTS allocation mechanism in IEEE 802.15.4 for time-sensitive wireless sensor networks: theory and practice

Timeliness guarantee is an important feature of the recently standardized IEEE 802.15.4 protocol, turning it quite appealing for Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) applications under timing constraints. When operating in beacon-enabled mode, this protocol allows nodes with real-time requirements to allocate Guaranteed Time Slots (GTS) in the contention-free period. The protocol natively supports explicit GTS allocation, i.e. a node allocates a number of time slots in each superframe for exclusive use. The limitation of this explicit GTS allocation is that GTS resources may quickly disappear, since a maximum of seven GTSs can be allocated in each superframe, preventing other nodes to benefit from guaranteed service. Moreover, the GTS may be underutilized, resulting in wasted bandwidth. To overcome these limitations, this paper proposes i-GAME, an implicit GTS Allocation Mechanism in beacon-enabled IEEE 802.15.4 networks. The allocation is based on implicit GTS allocation requests, taking into account the traffic specifications and the delay requirements of the flows. The i-GAME approach enables the use of one GTS by multiple nodes, still guaranteeing that all their (delay, bandwidth) requirements are satisfied. For that purpose, we propose an admission control algorithm that enables to decide whether to accept a new GTS allocation request or not, based not only on the remaining time slots, but also on the traffic specifications of the flows, their delay requirements and the available bandwidth resources. We show that our approach improves the bandwidth utilization as compared to the native explicit allocation mechanism defined in the IEEE 802.15.4 standard. We also present some practical considerations for the implementation of i-GAME, ensuring backward compatibility with the IEEE 801.5.4 standard with only minor add-ons. Finally, an experimental evaluation on a real system that validates our theoretical analysis and demonstrates the implementation of i-GAME is also presented

Flexible and dynamic replication control for interdependent distributed real-time embedded systems

Replication is a proven concept for increasing the availability of distributed systems. However, actively replicating every software component in distributed embedded systems may not be a feasible approach. Not only the available resources are often limited, but also the imposed overhead could significantly degrade the system’s performance. This paper proposes heuristics to dynamically determine which components to replicate based on their significance to the system as a whole, its consequent number of passive replicas, and where to place those replicas in the network. The activation of passive replicas is coordinated through a fast convergence protocol that reduces the complexity of the needed interactions among nodes until a new collective global service solution is determined.

A scalable and efficient approach for obtaining measurements in CAN-Based control systems

The availability of small inexpensive sensor elements enables the employment of large wired or wireless sensor networks for feeding control systems. Unfortunately, the need to transmit a large number of sensor measurements over a network negatively affects the timing parameters of the control loop. This paper presents a solution to this problem by representing sensor measurements with an approximate representation-an interpolation of sensor measurements as a function of space coordinates. A priority-based medium access control (MAC) protocol is used to select the sensor messages with high information content. Thus, the information from a large number of sensor measurements is conveyed within a few messages. This approach greatly reduces the time for obtaining a snapshot of the environment state and therefore supports the real-time requirements of feedback control loops.

Simulation study of energy efficient scheduling for IEEE 802.15.4/ZigBee cluster-treeWireless Sensor Networks with time-bounded data flows

The simulation analysis is important approach to developing and evaluating the systems in terms of development time and cost. This paper demonstrates the application of Time Division Cluster Scheduling (TDCS) tool for the configuration of IEEE 802.15.4/ZigBee beaconenabled cluster-tree WSNs using the simulation analysis, as an illustrative example that confirms the practical applicability of the tool. The simulation study analyses how the number of retransmissions impacts the reliability of data transmission, the energy consumption of the nodes and the end-to-end communication delay, based on the simulation model that was implemented in the Opnet Modeler. The configuration parameters of the network are obtained directly from the TDCS tool. The simulation results show that the number of retransmissions impacts the reliability, the energy consumption and the end-to-end delay, in a way that improving the one may degrade the others.

Capacity sharing and stealing in dynamic server-based real-time systems

This paper proposes a dynamic scheduler that supports the coexistence of guaranteed and non-guaranteed bandwidth servers to efficiently handle soft-tasks’ overloads by making additional capacity available from two sources: (i) residual capacity allocated but unused when jobs complete in less than their budgeted execution time; (ii) stealing capacity from inactive non-isolated servers used to schedule best-effort jobs. The effectiveness of the proposed approach in reducing the mean tardiness of periodic jobs is demonstrated through extensive simulations. The achieved results become even more significant when tasks’ computation times have a large variance.