Multi-proxy summer and winter precipitation reconstruction for southern Africa over the last 200 years

This study presents the first consolidation of palaeoclimate proxy records from multiple archives to develop statistical rainfall reconstructions for southern Africa covering the last two centuries. State-of-the-art ensemble reconstructions reveal multi-decadal rainfall variability in the summer and winter rainfall zones. A decrease in precipitation amount over time is identified in the summer rainfall zone. No significant change in precipitation amount occurred in the winter rainfall zone, but rainfall variability has increased over time. Generally synchronous rainfall fluctuations between the two zones are identified on decadal scales, with common wet (dry) periods reconstructed around 1890 (1930). A strong relationship between seasonal rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the surrounding oceans is confirmed. Coherence among decadal-scale fluctuations of southern African rainfall, regional SST, SSTs in the Pacific Ocean and rainfall in south-eastern Australia suggest SST-rainfall teleconnections across the southern hemisphere. Temporal breakdowns of the SST-rainfall relationship in the southern African regions and the connection between the two rainfall zones are observed, for example during the 1950s. Our results confirm the complex interplay between large-scale teleconnections, regional SSTs and local effects in modulating multi-decadal southern African rainfall variability over long timescales.

Dynamics of the last four glacial terminations recorded in Lake Van, Turkey

A well-dated suite of Lake Van climate-proxy data covering the last 360 ka documents environmental changes over 4 glacial/interglacial cycles in Eastern Anatolia, Turkey. The picture of cold and dry glacials and warm and wet interglacials emerging from pollen, organic carbon, authigenic carbonate content, elemental profiling by XRF and lithological analyses is inconsistent with classical interpretation of ox- ygen isotopic composition of carbonates pointing to a more complex pattern in Lake Van region. Detailed analysis of glacial terminations allows for the constraining of a depositional model explaining different patterns observed in all the proxies. We hypothesize that variations in relative contribution of rainfall, snowmelt and glacier meltwater recharging the basin have a very important role for all sedimentary processes in Lake Van. Lake level of glacial Lake Van, predominantly fed by snowmelt, was low, the water column was oxic, and carbonates precipitating in the epilimnion recorded the light isotopic signature of inflow. During terminations, increasing rainfall and significant supply of mountain glaciers' meltwater contributed to lake level rise. Increased rainfall enhanced density gradients in the water column, and hindered mixing leading to development of bottom-water anoxia. Carbonates precipitating during terminations show large fluctuations in their isotopic composition. Full interglacial conditions in Lake Van are characterized by high or slowly falling lake level. Rainfall and snowmelt feed the lake but due to re-established mixing, the isotopic composition of authigenic carbonates is heavier and closer to that of evaporation-influenced lake water than that of runoff representing snowmelt and atmospheric precipitation.

Ocean (De)oxygenation Across the Last Deglaciation: Insights for the Future

Anthropogenic warming is expected to drive oxygen out of the ocean as the water temperature rises and the rate of exchange between subsurface waters and the atmosphere slows due to enhanced upper ocean density stratification. Observations from recent decades are tantalizingly consistent with this prediction, though these changes remain subtle in the face of natural variability. Earth system model projections unanimously predict a long-term decrease in the global ocean oxygen inventory, but show regional discrepancies, particularly in the most oxygen-depleted waters, owing to the complex interplay between oxygen supply pathways and oxygen consumption. The geological record provides an orthogonal perspective, showing how the oceanic oxygen content varied in response to prior episodes of climate change. These past changes were much slower than the current, anthropogenic change, but can help to appraise sensitivities, and point toward potentially dominant mechanisms of change. Consistent with the model projections, marine sediments recorded an overall expansion of low-oxygen waters in the upper ocean as it warmed at the end of the last ice age. This expansion was not linearly related with temperature, though, but reached a deoxygenation extreme midway through the warming. Meanwhile, the deep ocean became better oxygenated, opposite the general expectation. These observations require that significant changes in apparent oxygen utilization occurred, suggesting that they will also be important in the future.

Iron Fertilization of the Subantarctic Ocean During the Last Ice Age

John H. Martin, who discovered widespread iron limitation of ocean productivity, proposed that dust-borne iron fertilization of Southern Ocean phytoplankton caused the ice age reduction in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). In a sediment core from the Subantarctic Atlantic, we measured foraminifera-bound nitrogen isotopes to reconstruct ice age nitrate consumption, burial fluxes of iron, and proxies for productivity. Peak glacial times and millennial cold events are characterized by increases in dust flux, productivity, and the degree of nitrate consumption; this combination is uniquely consistent with Subantarctic iron fertilization. The associated strengthening of the Southern Ocean’s biological pump can explain the lowering of CO2 at the transition from mid-climate states to full ice age conditions as well as the millennial-scale CO2 oscillations.

Modelling Lake Kivu water level variations over the last seven decades

This study aimed at analysing the hydrological changes in the Lake Kivu Basin over the last seven decades with focus on the response of the lake water level to meteorological factors and hydropower dam construction. Historical precipitation and lake water levels were acquired from literature, local agencies and from global databases in order to compile a coherent dataset. The net lake inflow was modelled using a soil water balance model and the water levels were reconstructed using a parsimonious lake water balance model. The soil water balance shows that 370 mm yr−1 (25%) of the precipitation in the catchment contributes to the runoff and baseflow whereas 1100 mm yr−1 (75%) contributes to the evapotranspiration. A review of the lake water balance resulted in the following estimates of hydrological contributions: 55%, 25%, and 20% of the overall inputs from precipitation, surface inflows, and subaquatic groundwater discharge, respectively. The overall losses were 58% and 42% for lake surface evaporation and outflow discharge, respectively. The hydrological model used indicated a remarkable sensitivity of the lake water levels to hydrometeorological variability up to 1977, when the outflow bed was artificially widened.

Terrestrial and submarine evidence for the extent and timing of the Last Glacial Maximum and the onset of deglaciation on the maritime-Antarctic and sub-Antarctic islands

This paper is the maritime and sub–Antarctic contribution to the Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research (SCAR) Past Antarctic Ice Sheet Dynamics (PAIS) community Antarctic Ice Sheet reconstruction. The overarching aim for all sectors of Antarctica was to reconstruct the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ice sheet extent and thickness, and map the subsequent deglaciation in a series of 5000 year time slices. However, our review of the literature found surprisingly few high quality chronological constraints on changing glacier extents on these timescales in the maritime and sub–Antarctic sector. Therefore, in this paper we focus on an assessment of the terrestrial and offshore evidence for the LGM ice extent, establishing minimum ages for the onset of deglaciation, and separating evidence of deglaciation from LGM limits from those associated with later Holocene glacier fluctuations. Evidence included geomorphological descriptions of glacial landscapes, radiocarbon dated basal peat and lake sediment deposits, cosmogenic isotope ages of glacial features and molecular biological data. We propose a classification of the glacial history of the maritime and sub–Antarctic islands based on this assembled evidence. These include: (Type I) islands which accumulated little or no LGM ice; (Type II) islands with a limited LGM ice extent but evidence of extensive earlier continental shelf glaciations; (Type III) seamounts and volcanoes unlikely to have accumulated significant LGM ice cover; (Type IV) islands on shallow shelves with both terrestrial and submarine evidence of LGM (and/or earlier) ice expansion; (Type V) Islands north of the Antarctic Polar Front with terrestrial evidence of LGM ice expansion; and (Type VI) islands with no data. Finally, we review the climatological and geomorphological settings that separate the glaciological history of the islands within this classification scheme.

Isotopic constraints on marine and terrestrial N2O emissions during the last deglaciation

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and ozone-depleting substance that has anthropogenic as well as natural marine and terrestrial sources. The tropospheric N2O concentrations have varied substantially in the past in concert with changing climate on glacial–interglacial and millennial timescales. It is not well understood, however, how N2O emissions from marine and terrestrial sources change in response to varying environmental conditions. The distinct isotopic compositions of marine and terrestrial N2O sources can help disentangle the relative changes in marine and terrestrial N2O emissions during past climate variations. Here we present N2O concentration and isotopic data for the last deglaciation, from 16,000 to 10,000 years before present, retrieved from air bubbles trapped in polar ice at Taylor Glacier, Antarctica. With the help of our data and a box model of the N2O cycle, we find a 30 per cent increase in total N2O emissions from the late glacial to the interglacial, with terrestrial and marine emissions contributing equally to the overall increase and generally evolving in parallel over the last deglaciation, even though there is no a priori connection between the drivers of the two sources. However, we find that terrestrial emissions dominated on centennial timescales, consistent with a state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation and land surface process model that suggests that during the last deglaciation emission changes were strongly influenced by temperature and precipitation patterns over land surfaces. The results improve our understanding of the drivers of natural N2O emissions and are consistent with the idea that natural N2O emissions will probably increase in response to anthropogenic warming.

A community-based geological reconstruction of Antarctic Ice Sheet deglaciation since the Last Glacial Maximum

A robust understanding of Antarctic Ice Sheet deglacial history since the Last Glacial Maximum is important in order to constrain ice sheet and glacial-isostatic adjustment models, and to explore the forcing mechanisms responsible for ice sheet retreat. Such understanding can be derived from a broad range of geological and glaciological datasets and recent decades have seen an upsurge in such data gathering around the continent and Sub-Antarctic islands. Here, we report a new synthesis of those datasets, based on an accompanying series of reviews of the geological data, organised by sector. We present a series of timeslice maps for 20 ka, 15 ka, 10 ka and 5 ka, including grounding line position and ice sheet thickness changes, along with a clear assessment of levels of confidence. The reconstruction shows that the Antarctic Ice sheet did not everywhere reach the continental shelf edge at its maximum, that initial retreat was asynchronous, and that the spatial pattern of deglaciation was highly variable, particularly on the inner shelf. The deglacial reconstruction is consistent with a moderate overall excess ice volume and with a relatively small Antarctic contribution to meltwater pulse 1a. We discuss key areas of uncertainty both around the continent and by time interval, and we highlight potential priorities for future work. The synthesis is intended to be a resource for the modelling and glacial geological community.

Thrombolysis in patients with prior stroke within the last 3 months

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Patients with prior stroke within 3 months have been mostly excluded from randomized thrombolysis trials mainly because of the fear of an increased rate of symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH). The aim of this study was to compare baseline characteristics and clinical outcome of thrombolyzed patients who had a previous stroke within the last 3 months with those not fulfilling this criterion (comparison group). METHODS In all, 1217 patients were included in our analysis (42.2% women, mean age 68.8 ± 14.4 years). RESULTS Patients with previous stroke within the last 3 months (17/1.4%) had more often a basilar artery occlusion (41.2% vs. 10.8%) and less frequently a modified Rankin scale (mRS) score 0-1 prior to index stroke (88.2% vs. 97.3%) and a higher mean time lapse from symptom onset to thrombolysis (321 min vs. 262 min) than those in the comparison group. Stroke severity was not different between the two groups. Rates of sICH were 11.8% vs. 6%. None of the sICHs and only one asymptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage occurred in the region of the former infarct. At 3 months, favorable outcome (mRS ≤ 2) in patients with previous stroke within 3 months was 29.4% (vs. 48.9%) and mortality 41.2% (vs. 22.7%). CONCLUSIONS In patients with prior stroke within the last 3 months, none of the sICHs and only one asymptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage occurred in the region of the former infarct. The high mortality was influenced by four patients, who died until discharge due to acute major index stroke. It is reasonable to include these patients in randomized clinical trials and registries to assess further their thrombolysis benefit-risk ratio.

A stratigraphic framework for abrupt climatic changes during the Last Glacial period based on three synchronized Greenland ice-core records: refining and extending the INTIMATE event stratigraphy

Due to their outstanding resolution and well-constrained chronologies, Greenland ice-core records provide a master record of past climatic changes throughout the Last Interglacial–Glacial cycle in the North Atlantic region. As part of the INTIMATE (INTegration of Ice-core, MArine and TErrestrial records) project, protocols have been proposed to ensure consistent and robust correlation between different records of past climate. A key element of these protocols has been the formal definition and ordinal numbering of the sequence of Greenland Stadials (GS) and Greenland Interstadials (GI) within the most recent glacial period. The GS and GI periods are the Greenland expressions of the characteristic Dansgaard–Oeschger events that represent cold and warm phases of the North Atlantic region, respectively. We present here a more detailed and extended GS/GI template for the whole of the Last Glacial period. It is based on a synchronization of the NGRIP, GRIP, and GISP2 ice-core records that allows the parallel analysis of all three records on a common time scale. The boundaries of the GS and GI periods are defined based on a combination of stable-oxygen isotope ratios of the ice (δ18O, reflecting mainly local temperature) and calcium ion concentrations (reflecting mainly atmospheric dust loading) measured in the ice. The data not only resolve the well-known sequence of Dansgaard–Oeschger events that were first defined and numbered in the ice-core records more than two decades ago, but also better resolve a number of short-lived climatic oscillations, some defined here for the first time. Using this revised scheme, we propose a consistent approach for discriminating and naming all the significant abrupt climatic events of the Last Glacial period that are represented in the Greenland ice records. The final product constitutes an extended and better resolved Greenland stratotype sequence, against which other proxy records can be compared and correlated. It also provides a more secure basis for investigating the dynamics and fundamental causes of these climatic perturbations.