Bayes estimates of distance-to-market: Transactions costs, cooperatives and milk-market development in the Ethiopian highlands

Rationalizing non-participation as a resource deficiency in the household, this paper identifies strategies for milk-market development in the Ethiopian highlands. The additional amounts of covariates required for Positive marketable surplus -'distances-to market'-are computed from a model in which production and sales are correlated; sales are left-censored at some Unobserved thresholds production efficiencies are heterogeneous: and the data are in the form of a panel. Incorporating these features into the modeling exercise ant because they are fundamental to the data-generating environment. There are four reasons. First, because production and sales decisions are enacted within the same household, both decisions are affected by the same exogenous shocks, and production and sales are therefore likely to be correlated. Second. because selling, involves time and time is arguably the most important resource available to a subsistence household, the minimum Sales amount is not zero but, rather, some unobserved threshold that lies beyond zero. Third. the Potential existence of heterogeneous abilities in management, ones that lie latent from the econometrician's perspective, suggest that production efficiencies should be permitted to vary across households. Fourth, we observe a single set of households during multiple visits in a single production year. The results convey clearly that institutional and production) innovations alone are insufficient to encourage participation. Market-precipitating innovation requires complementary inputs, especially improvements in human capital and reductions in risk. Copyright (c) 20 08 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Dual technological development in Botswana agriculture: A Stochastic input distance function approach

To improve the welfare of the rural poor and keep them in the countryside, the government of Botswana has been spending 40% of the value of agricultural GDP on agricultural support services. But can investment make smallholder agriculture prosperous in such adverse conditions? This paper derives an answer by applying a two-output six-input stochastic translog distance function, with inefficiency effects and biased technical change to panel data for the 18 districts and the commercial agricultural sector, from 1979 to 1996 This model demonstrates that herds are the most important input, followed by draft power. land and seeds. Multilateral indices for technical change, technical efficiency and total factor productivity (TFP) show that the technology level of the commercial agricultural sector is more than six times that of traditional agriculture and that the gap has been increasing, due to technological regression in traditional agriculture and modest progress in commercial agriculture. Since the levels of efficiency are similar, the same patient is repeated by the TFP indices. This result highlights the policy dilemma of the trade-off between efficiency and equity objectives.

Searching efficiency and the functional response of a pause-travel forager

1. The feeding rates of many predators and parasitoids exhibit type II functional responses, with a decelerating rate of increase to reach an asymptotic value as the density of their prey or hosts increases. Holling's disc equation describes such relationships and predicts that the asymptotic feeding rate at high prey densities is set by handling time, while the rate at which feeding rate increases with increased prey density is determined by searching efficiency. Searching efficiency and handling time are also parameters in other models which describe the functional response. Models which incorporate functional responses in order to make predictions of the effects of food shortage thus rely upon a clear understanding and accurate quantification of searching efficiency and handling time. 2. Blackbird Turdus merula exhibit a type II functional response and use pause-travel foraging, a foraging technique in which animals search for prey while stationary and then move to capture prey. Pause-travel foraging allows accurate direct measurement of feeding rate and both searching efficiency and handling time. We use Blackbirds as a model species to: (i) compare observed measures of both searching efficiency and handling time with those estimated by statistically fitting the disc equation to the observed functional response; and (ii) investigate alternative measures of searching efficiency derived by the established method where search area is assumed to be circular and a new method that we propose where it is not. 3. We find that the disc equation can adequately explain the functional response of blackbirds feeding on artificial prey. However, this depends critically upon how searching efficiency is measured. Two variations on the previous method of measuring search area (a component of searching efficiency) overestimated searching efficiency, and hence predicted feeding rates higher than those observed. Two variations of our alternative approach produced lower estimates of searching efficiency, closer to that estimated by fitting the disc equation, and hence more accurately predicted feeding rate. Our study shows the limitations of the previous method of measuring searching efficiency, and describes a new method for measuring searching efficiency more accurately.

Genetic evidence of frequent long-distance recruitment in a vertebrate-dispersed tree

The importance of dispersal for the maintenance of biodiversity, while long-recognized, has remained unresolved. We used molecular markers to measure effective dispersal in a natural population of the vertebrate-dispersed Neotropical tree, Simarouba amara (Simaroubaceae) by comparing the distances between maternal parents and their offspring and comparing gene movement via seed and pollen in the 50 ha plot of the Barro Colorado Island forest, Central Panama. In all cases (parent-pair, mother-offspring, father-offspring, sib-sib) distances between related pairs were significantly greater than distances to nearest possible neighbours within each category. Long-distance seedling establishment was frequent: 74% of assigned seedlings established > 100 m from the maternal parent [mean = 392 +/- 234.6 m (SD), range = 9.3-1000.5 m] and pollen-mediated gene flow was comparable to that of seed [mean = 345.0 +/- 157.7 m (SD), range 57.6-739.7 m]. For S. amara we found approximately a 10-fold difference between distances estimated by inverse modelling and mean seedling recruitment distances (39 m vs. 392 m). Our findings have important implications for future studies in forest demography and regeneration, with most seedlings establishing at distances far exceeding those demonstrated by negative density-dependent effects.

A behavioral comparison between motorcyclists and a matched group of non-motorcycling car drivers: factors influencing accident risk

Motorcyclists and a matched group of non-motorcycling car drivers were assessed on behavioral measures known to relate to accident involvement. Using a range of laboratory measures, we found that motorcyclists chose faster speeds than the car drivers, overtook more, and pulled into smaller gaps in traffic, though they did not travel any closer to the vehicle in front. The speed and following distance findings were replicated by two further studies involving unobtrusive roadside observation. We suggest that the increased risk-taking behavior of motorcyclists was only likely to account for a small proportion of the difference in accident risk between motorcyclists and car drivers. A second group of motorcyclists was asked to complete the simulator tests as if driving a car. They did not differ from the non-motorcycling car drivers on the risk-taking measures but were better at hazard perception. There were also no differences for sensation seeking, mild social deviance, and attitudes to riding/driving, indicating that the risk-taking tendencies of motorcyclists did not transfer beyond motorcycling, while their hazard perception skill did. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perceptual grouping and distance estimates in typical and atypical development: comparing performance across perception, drawing and construction tasks

Perceptual grouping is a pre-attentive process which serves to group local elements into global wholes, based on shared properties. One effect of perceptual grouping is to distort the ability to estimate the distance between two elements. In this study, biases in distance estimates, caused by four types of perceptual grouping, were measured across three tasks, a perception, a drawing and a construction task in both typical development (TD: Experiment 1) and in individuals with Williams syndrome (WS: Experiment 2). In Experiment 1, perceptual grouping distorted distance estimates across all three tasks. Interestingly, the effect of grouping by luminance was in the opposite direction to the effects of the remaining grouping types. We relate this to differences in the ability to inhibit perceptual grouping effects on distance estimates. Additive distorting influences were also observed in the drawing and the construction task, which are explained in terms of the points of reference employed in each task. Experiment 2 demonstrated that the above distortion effects are also observed in WS. Given the known deficit in the ability to use perceptual grouping in WS, this suggests a dissociation between the pre-attentive influence of and the attentive deployment of perceptual grouping in WS. The typical distortion in relation to drawing and construction points towards the presence of some typical location coding strategies in WS. The performance of the WS group differed from the TD participants on two counts. First, the pattern of overall distance estimates (averaged across interior and exterior distances) across the four perceptual grouping types, differed between groups. Second, the distorting influence of perceptual grouping was strongest for grouping by shape similarity in WS, which contrasts to a strength in grouping by proximity observed in the TD participants. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stereoscopic acuity and observation distance

The amount of depth perceived from a fixed pattern of horizontal disparities varies with viewing distance. We investigated whether thresholds for discriminating stereoscopic corrugations at a range of spatial frequencies were also affected by viewing distance or whether they were determined solely by the angular disparity in the stimulus prior to scaling. Although thresholds were found to be determined primarily by disparity over a broad range of viewing distances, they were on average a factor of two higher at the shortest viewing distance (28.5 cm) than at larger viewing distances (57 to 450 cm). We found the same pattern of results when subjects' accommodation was arranged to be the same at all viewing distances. The change in thresholds at close distances is in the direction expected if subjects' performance is limited by a minimum perceived depth.

Bringing the target to the cursor: proxy targets for older adults

Studies in the literature have proposed techniques to facilitate pointing in graphical user interfaces through the use of proxy targets. Proxy targets effectively bring the target to the cursor, thereby reducing the distance that the cursor must travel. This paper describes a study which aims to provide an initial understanding of how older adults respond to proxy targets, and compares older with younger users. We found that users in both age groups adjusted to the proxy targets without difficulty, and there was no indication in the cursor trajectories that users were confused about which target, i.e. the original versus the proxy, was to be selected. In terms of times, preliminary results show that for younger users, proxies did not provide any benefits over direct selection, while for older users, times were increased with proxy targets. A full analysis of the movement times, error rates, throughput and subjective feedback is currently underway.

Communicating eye gaze across a distance without rooting participants to the spot

Eye gaze is an important conversational resource that until now could only be supported across a distance if people were rooted to the spot. We introduce EyeCVE, the worldpsilas first tele-presence system that allows people in different physical locations to not only see what each other are doing but follow each otherpsilas eyes, even when walking about. Projected into each space are avatar representations of remote participants, that reproduce not only body, head and hand movements, but also those of the eyes. Spatial and temporal alignment of remote spaces allows the focus of gaze as well as activity and gesture to be used as a resource for non-verbal communication. The temporal challenge met was to reproduce eye movements quick enough and often enough to interpret their focus during a multi-way interaction, along with communicating other verbal and non-verbal language. The spatial challenge met was to maintain communicational eye gaze while allowing free movement of participants within a virtually shared common frame of reference. This paper reports on the technical and especially temporal characteristics of the system.