Testes de hipóteses em modelos de sobrevivência com Fração de cura

Survival models deals with the modeling of time to event data. However in some situations part of the population may be no longer subject to the event. Models that take this fact into account are called cure rate models. There are few studies about hypothesis tests in cure rate models. Recently a new test statistic, the gradient statistic, has been proposed. It shares the same asymptotic properties with the classic large sample tests, the likelihood ratio, score and Wald tests. Some simulation studies have been carried out to explore the behavior of the gradient statistic in fi nite samples and compare it with the classic statistics in diff erent models. The main objective of this work is to study and compare the performance of gradient test and likelihood ratio test in cure rate models. We first describe the models and present the main asymptotic properties of the tests. We perform a simulation study based on the promotion time model with Weibull distribution to assess the performance of the tests in finite samples. An application is presented to illustrate the studied concepts

Remission status follow-up in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis

Objective: To characterize articular and systemic inflammatory activity in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA), identifying remission status with and without medication.Methods: A total of 165 JIA cases, followed for a mean period of 3.6 years, were reviewed in order to characterize episodes of inactivity and clinical remission on and off medication. The resulting data were analyzed by means of descriptive statistics, survival analysis, by comparison of Kaplan-Meier curves, log rank testing and binary logistic regression;analysis in order to identify predictive factors for remission or persistent activity.Results: One hundred and eight of the cases reviewed fulfilled the inclusion criteria: 57 patients (52.7%) exhibited a total of 71 episodes of inactivity, with a mean of 2.9 years per episode; 36 inactivity episodes (50.7%) resulted in clinical remission off medication, 35% of which were of the persistent oligoarticular subtype. The probability of clinical remission on medication over 2 years was 81, 82, 97 and 83% for cases of persistent oligoarticular, extended oligoarticular, polyarticular and systemicJIA, respectively. The probability of clinical remission off medication 5 years after onset of remission was 40 and 67% for patients with persistent oligoarticular and systemic JIA, respectively. Persistent disease activity was significantly associated with the use of an anti-rheumatic drug combination. Age at JIA onset was the only factor that predicted clinical remission (p = 0.002).Conclusions: In this cohort, the probability of JIA progressing to clinical remission was greater for the persistent oligoarticular and systemic subtypes, when compared with polyarticular cases.

Progression of articular and extraarticular damage in oligoarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Some predictors of cardiovascular mortality among the elderly population of Botucatu (SP)

OBJECTIVE: To detect factors associated with cardiovascular mortality in the elderly of Botucatu. METHODS: We evaluated 29 variables of interest in a cohort of patients aged ³60 using data from a survey conducted between 1983/84. The elderly cohort was analyzed in 1992 to detect the occurrence of cardiovascular deaths. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method, the log-rank test, and Cox regression analysis. Three models were adapted for each group of variables, and a final model was chosen from those variables selected from each group. RESULTS: We identified predictor for cardiovascular death according to age for elderly males not supporting the family, not possessing a vehicle, and previous cardiovascular disease. In elderly females, the predictor variables were previous cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus. CONCLUSION: Socioeconomic indicators (family heading and vehicle ownerrship) may be added to well stabilished medical factors (diabete mellitus and hypertension to select target groups for programs intended to reduce deaths due to cardiovascular diseases in elderly people.

Comparison among three approaches for evaluation of sexual precocity in Nellore cattle

Restricted breeding seasons used in beef cattle produce censored data for reproduction traits measured in regard to these seasons. To analyze these data, adequate methods must be used. The objective of this paper was to compare three approaches aiming to evaluate sexual precocity in Nellore cattle. The final data set contained 6699 records of age at first conception (AFC14) (in days) and of heifer pregnancy (HP14) (binary) obtained from females exposed to the bulls for the first time at about 14 months of age. Records of females that did not calve in the following year after being exposed to a sire were considered censored (77.5% of total). The models used to obtain genetic parameters and expected progeny differences (EPDs) were a Weibull mixed and a censored linear model for AFC14 and threshold model for HP14. The mean heritabilities obtained were 0.76 and 0.44, respectively, for survival and censored linear models (for AFC14), and 0.58 for HP14. Ranking and Pearson correlations varied (in absolute values) from 0.54 to 0.99 (considering different percentages of sires selected), indicating moderate changes in the classification. Considering survival analysis as the best selection criterion (that would result in the best response to selection), it was observed that selection for HP14 would lead to a more significant decrease in selection response if compared with selection for AFC14 analysed by censored linear model, from which results were very similar to the survival analysis.

Population dynamics, life stage and ecological modeling in Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Dynamics of extinction in coupled populations of the flour beetle Tribolium castaneum

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Aderência a um programa de atividade física e fatores associados

The aim of this study was to verify the adherence of participants in a program of physical activity; and to verify if there is any association between the age, Body Mass Index and General Functional Fitness Index with this adherence. It was used the control of frequency for 62 months and data of the anthropometric and functional evaluations of 122 participants (58 + 9 years). 49.2% of the participants gave the program up and 50.8% remained to it. The average of permanence time was 24 + 17 months. The percentage of the adherence of people with satisfactory fitness is greater than with not satisfactory fitness. The percentage of adherence of older people is larger than younger age. The percentage of adherence of not-obese is greater than of obese. However, none of these variables presented statistical difference. It can be concluded that even though there was adherence with similar results even to permanence as to desistance, the time of permanence in the program was very high when compared to other studies.

Experimental systemic virulence of oral Candida dubliniensis isolates in comparison with Candida albicans, Candida tropicalis and Candida krusei

There are no previous studies on the comparative virulence of Candida dubliniensis with other non-albicans species. The aim of this study was to compare the virulence and infection kinetics of C. dubliniensis and other species. Candida albicans, C. dubliniensis, Candida tropicalis and Candida krusei (reference strains) were inoculated intravenously in mice. For infection kinetics evaluation, a group of five animals were sacrificed after 6 h, 3, 7, 14 and 21 days. Microbiological evaluations (liver, spleen, kidneys, lungs and brain) and histopathological examination of the kidney were performed. The results of virulence evaluation were analysed using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis (5%). Candida dubliniensis-inoculated mice survived for longer periods compared with those with C. albicans (P = 0.005). No differences were detected in relation to C. tropicalis (P = 0.326) and C. krusei (P = 0.317). Most of the organs were persistently colonised by C. albicans and C. dubliniensis even by day 21. Tendency of C. krusei clearance was observed in all organs. Fungal masses and renal lesions were observed after inoculation of C. albicans, C. dubliniensis and C. tropicalis. Within the limits of the study, data on survival rate and dissemination capacity suggest that C. dubliniensis is less virulent than C. albicans.

Freqüência e variáveis associadas ao aleitamento materno em crianças com até 12 meses de idade no município de Araçatuba, São Paulo, Brazil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Apresentação e desfecho da febre reumática em uma série de casos

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Effectiveness and safety of a new vaginal misoprostol product specifically labeled for cervical ripening and labor induction

Objective. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of misoprostol in two different formulations: vaginal tablets of 25 mu g and one-eighth of a 200-mu g oral tablet, also administered intravaginally, for cervical ripening and labor induction of term pregnancies with an indication for that. Methods. A single-blind, randomized, controlled clinical trial was carried out in 120 pregnant women who randomly received one of the two formulations. The main dependent variables were mode of delivery, need for additional oxytocin, time between beginning of induction and delivery, perinatal results, complications, and maternal side effects. Student's t, Mann-Whitney, chi(2), Fisher's Exact, Wilcoxon and Kolmogorov-Smirnoff tests, as well as survival analysis, were used in the data analysis. Results. There were no significant differences between the groups in terms of general characteristics, uterine contractility, and fetal well-being during labor, cesarean section rates, perinatal outcomes, or maternal adverse events. The mean time between the beginning of cervical ripening and delivery was 31.3 h in the vaginal tablet group and 30.1 h in the oral tablet group, a difference that was not statistically significant. Conclusion. The results showed that the 25-mu g vaginal tablets of misoprostol were as effective and safe for cervical ripening and labor induction as the dose-equivalent fraction of 200-mu g oral tablets.

The Poisson-exponential distribution: a Bayesian approach

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Immunocytochemical study of Ki-67 as a prognostic marker in canine mammary neoplasia

Background: Canine mammary tumors are challenging for clinicians and pathologists because of complex histologic classification, low specificity of cytologic diagnosis, and unpredictable biological behavior. In histologic specimens, expression of tumor proliferation marker Ki-67, a nuclear nonhistone protein, has been shown to have prognostic value for canine mammary tumors and to correlate with malignancy and low survival rates. Objective: The objective of this study was to measure the proliferation index of canine mammary tumors by immunochemical detection of Ki-67 in cytologic specimens and to determine its relationship to clinical and pathologic variables and patient outcome. Methods: Spontaneous mammary tumors from 31 female dogs were surgically excised. Imprint specimens for cytologic evaluation were wet-fixed in ethanol; histologic specimens were prepared routinely. Immunostaining was performed with the PH 177 monoclonal antibody against Ki-67; proliferation index was graded from negative to +++. Dogs were followed for 18 months. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine correlations between immunocytochemical results, tumor and clinical variables, and patient outcome. Results: Ki-67 proliferation indices in cytologic specimens were significantly lower for nonmalignant tumors than for malignant tumors. High index values of Ki-67 were positively correlated with metastasis, death from neoplasia, low disease-free survival rates, and low overall survival rate. With the exception of 4 specimens for which cellularity was insufficient, positive expression of Ki-67 in cytologic specimens correlated with that of histologic specimens. Conclusions: The prognostic value of the Ki-67 index in canine mammary tumors by using wet-fixed cytology imprint specimens was similar to that observed previously for histologic specimens. Immunocytochemical detection of Ki-67 could improve the accuracy and value of cytology by providing safe and rapid information about malignancy and patient outcome. © 2004 American Society for Veterinary Clinical Pathology.

β-carotene attenuates the paradoxical effect of tobacco smoke on the mortality of rats after experimental myocardial infarction

The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of exposure to tobacco smoke (ETS) in rats that were or were not supplemented with dietary β-carotene (BC), on ventricular remodeling and survival after myocardial infarction (Ml). Rats (n = 189) were allocated to 4 groups: the control group, n = 45; group BC administered 500 mg/kg diet, n = 49, BC supplemented rats; group ETS, n - 55, rats exposed to tobacco smoke; and group BC+ETS, n = 40. Wistar rats weighing 10O g were administered one of the treatments until they weighed 200 to 250 g (∼5 wk). The ETS rats were exposed to cigarette smoke for 30 min 4 times/d, in a chamber connected to a smoking device. After reaching a weight of 200-250 g, rats were subjected to experimental MI (coronary artery occlusion) and mortality rates were determined over the next 105 d. In addition, echocardiographic, isolated heart, morphometrical, and biochemical studies were performed. Mortality data were tested using Kaplan-Meyer curves and other data by 2-way ANOVA. Survival rates were greater in the ETS group (58.2%) than in the control (33.3%) (P = 0.001) and BC+ETS rats (30.0%) (P = 0.007). The groups did not differ in the other comparisons. Left ventricular end-diastolic diameter normalized to body weight was greater and maximal systolic pressures were lower in the ETS groups than in non-ETS groups. Previous exposure to tobacco smoke induced a process of cardiac remodeling after MI. There is a paradoxical protector effect with tobacco smoke exposure, characterized by lower mortality, which is offset by BC supplementation. © 2005 American Society for Nutritional Sciences.