Contribution of the North Atlantic subtropical high to regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating southeastern United States summer precipitation

© 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.This study assesses the skill of advanced regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating southeastern United States (SE US) summer precipitation and explores the physical mechanisms responsible for the simulation skill at a process level. Analysis of the RCM output for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program indicates that the RCM simulations of summer precipitation show the largest biases and a remarkable spread over the SE US compared to other regions in the contiguous US. The causes of such a spread are investigated by performing simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a next-generation RCM developed by the US National Center for Atmospheric Research. The results show that the simulated biases in SE US summer precipitation are due mainly to the misrepresentation of the modeled North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) western ridge. In the WRF simulations, the NASH western ridge shifts 7° northwestward when compared to that in the reanalysis ensemble, leading to a dry bias in the simulated summer precipitation according to the relationship between the NASH western ridge and summer precipitation over the southeast. Experiments utilizing the four dimensional data assimilation technique further suggest that the improved representation of the circulation patterns (i.e., wind fields) associated with the NASH western ridge substantially reduces the bias in the simulated SE US summer precipitation. Our analysis of circulation dynamics indicates that the NASH western ridge in the WRF simulations is significantly influenced by the simulated planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes over the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, a decrease (increase) in the simulated PBL height tends to stabilize (destabilize) the lower troposphere over the Gulf of Mexico, and thus inhibits (favors) the onset and/or development of convection. Such changes in tropical convection induce a tropical–extratropical teleconnection pattern, which modulates the circulation along the NASH western ridge in the WRF simulations and contributes to the modeled precipitation biases over the SE US. In conclusion, our study demonstrates that the NASH western ridge is an important factor responsible for the RCM skill in simulating SE US summer precipitation. Furthermore, the improvements in the PBL parameterizations for the Gulf of Mexico might help advance RCM skill in representing the NASH western ridge circulation and summer precipitation over the SE US.

Can the subtropical North Atlantic permanent thermocline be observed from space?

The analysis of remotely sensed altimeter data and in situ measurements shows that ERS 2 radar can monitor the ocean permanent thermocline from space. The remotely sensed sea level anomaly data account for similar to 2/3 of the temperature variance or vertical displacement of isotherms at a depth of similar to 550 m in the Subtropical North Atlantic Ocean near 32.5 degree N. This depth corresponds closely to the region of maximum temperature gradient in the permanent thermocline where near semi-annual internal vertical displacements reach 200 to 300 m. The gradient of the altimeter sea level anomaly data correlates well with measured ocean currents to a depth of 750 m. It is shown that observations from space can account for similar to 3/4 of the variance of ocean currents measured in situ in the permanent thermocline over a 2-y period. The magnification of the permanent thermocline displacement with respect to the displacement of the sea surface was determined as - x650 and gives a measure of the ratio of barotropic to baroclinic decay scale of geostrophic current with depth. The overall results are used to interpret an eight year altimeter data tie series in the Subtropical North Atlantic at 32.5 degree N which shows a dominant wave or eddy period near 200 days, rather than semi-annual and increases in energy propagating westward in 1995 (west of 25 degree W). The effects of rapid North Atlantic Oscillation climate change on ocean circulation are discussed. The altimeter data for the Atlantic were Fourier analysed. It is shown how the annual and semi-annual components relate to the seasonal maximum cholorophyll-a SeaWiFS signal in tropical and equatorial regions due to the lifting of the thermocline caused by seasonally varying ocean currents forced by wind stress.

Position and structure of the subtropical/Azores front region from combined Lagrangian and remote sensing (IR/altimeter/SeaWIFS) measurements

The position and structure of the North Atlantic Subtropical Front is studied using Lagrangian flow tracks and remote sensing (AVHRR imagery: TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry: SeaWiFS) in a broad region ( similar to 31 degree to similar to 36 degree N) of marked gradient of dynamic height (Azores Current) that extends from the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR), near similar to 40 degree W, to the Eastern Boundary ( similar to 10 degree W). Drogued Argos buoy and ALACE tracks are superposed on infrared satellite images in the Subtropical Front region. Cold (cyclonic) structures, called storms, and warm (anticyclonic) structures of 100-300 km in size can be found on the south side of the Subtropical Front outcrop, which has a temperature contrast of about 1 degree C that can be followed for similar to 2500 km near 35 degree N. Warmer water adjacent to the outcrop is flowing eastward (Azores Current) but some warm water is returned westward about 300 km to the south (southern Counterflow). Estimates of horizontal diffusion in a Storm (D=2.2t10 super(2) m super(2) s super(-1)) and in the Subtropical Front region near 200 m depth (D sub(x)=1.3t10 super(4) m super(2) s super(-1), D sub(y)=2.6t10 super(3) m super(2) s super(-1)) are made from the Lagrangian tracks. Altimeter and in situ measurements show that Storms track westwards. Storms are separated by about 510 km and move westward at 2.7 km d super(-1). Remote sensing reveals that some initial structures start evolving as far east as 23 degree W but are more organized near 29 degree W and therefore Storms are about 1 year old when they reach the MAR (having travelled a distance of 1000 km). Structure and seasonality in SeaWiFS data in the region is examined.