Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregression process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The filtered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidence for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

Chemical profiling of different hashish seizures by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry and statistical methodology: a case report

Limited information is available regarding the methodology required to characterize hashish seizures for assessing the presence or the absence of a chemical link between two seizures. This casework report presents the methodology applied for assessing that two different police seizures were coming from the same block before this latter one was split. The chemical signature was extracted using GC-MS analysis and the implemented methodology consists in a study of intra- and inter-variability distributions based on the measurement of the chemical profiles similarity using a number of hashish seizures and the calculation of the Pearson correlation coefficient. Different statistical scenarios (i.e., a combination of data pretreatment techniques and selection of target compounds) were tested to find the most discriminating one. Seven compounds showing high discrimination capabilities were selected on which a specific statistical data pretreatment was applied. Based on the results, the statistical model built for comparing the hashish seizures leads to low error rates. Therefore, the implemented methodology is suitable for the chemical profiling of hashish seizures.

Knowledge of Catalan, public/private sector choice and earnings: Evidence from a double sample selection model

This paper explores the earnings return to Catalan knowledge for public and private workers in Catalonia. In doing so, we allow for a double simultaneous selection process. We consider, on the one hand, the non-random allocation of workers into one sector or another, and on the other, the potential self-selection into Catalan proficiency. In addition, when correcting the earnings equations, we take into account the correlation between the two selectivity rules. Our findings suggest that the apparent higher language return for public sector workers is entirely accounted for by selection effects, whereas knowledge of Catalan has a significant positive return in the private sector, which is somewhat higher when the selection processes are taken into account.

Ethnicity and conflict : an empirical study

This paper examines the impact of ethnic divisions on conflict. The analysis relies on a theoretical model of conflict (Esteban and Ray, 2010) in which equilibrium conflict is shown to be accurately described by a linear function of just three distributional indices of ethnic diversity: the Gini coefficient, the Hirschman-Herfindahl fractionalization index, and a measure of polarization. Based on a dataset constructed by James Fearon and data from Ethnologue on ethno-linguistic groups and the "linguistic distances" between them, we compute the three distribution indices. Our results show that ethnic polarization is a highly significant correlate of conflict. Fractionalization is also significant in some of the statistical exercises, but the Gini coefficient never is. In particular, inter-group distances computed from language and embodied in polarization measures turn out to be extremely important correlates of ethnic conflict.

A qualitative response model of thermal comfort

A sound statistical methodology is presented for modelling the correspondence between the characteristics of individuals, their thermal environment, and their thermal sensation. The proposed methodology substantially improves that developed by P.O. Fanger, by formulating a more general and precise model of thermal comfort. It enables us to estimate the model from a sample of data where all the parameters of comfort vary at the same time, which is not possible with that adopted by Fanger. Moreover, the present model is still valid when thermal conditions are far from optimum. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Statistical tests for scaling in the inter-event times of earthquakes in California

We explore in depth the validity of a recently proposed scaling law for earthquake inter-event time distributions in the case of the Southern California, using the waveform cross-correlation catalog of Shearer et al. Two statistical tests are used: on the one hand, the standard two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is in agreement with the scaling of the distributions. On the other hand, the one-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic complemented with Monte Carlo simulation of the inter-event times, as done by Clauset et al., supports the validity of the gamma distribution as a simple model of the scaling function appearing on the scaling law, for rescaled inter-event times above 0.01, except for the largest data set (magnitude greater than 2). A discussion of these results is provided.

How Low Can We Go in Contrast-Enhanced CT Imaging of the Chest?: A Dose-Finding Cadaver Study Using the Model-based Iterative Image Reconstruction Approach.

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: Dose reduction may compromise patients because of a decrease of image quality. Therefore, the amount of dose savings in new dose-reduction techniques needs to be thoroughly assessed. To avoid repeated studies in one patient, chest computed tomography (CT) scans with different dose levels were performed in corpses comparing model-based iterative reconstruction (MBIR) as a tool to enhance image quality with current standard full-dose imaging. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Twenty-five human cadavers were scanned (CT HD750) after contrast medium injection at different, decreasing dose levels D0-D5 and respectively reconstructed with MBIR. The data at full-dose level, D0, have been additionally reconstructed with standard adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR), which represented the full-dose baseline reference (FDBR). Two radiologists independently compared image quality (IQ) in 3-mm multiplanar reformations for soft-tissue evaluation of D0-D5 to FDBR (-2, diagnostically inferior; -1, inferior; 0, equal; +1, superior; and +2, diagnostically superior). For statistical analysis, the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and the Wilcoxon test were used. RESULTS: Mean CT dose index values (mGy) were as follows: D0/FDBR = 10.1 ± 1.7, D1 = 6.2 ± 2.8, D2 = 5.7 ± 2.7, D3 = 3.5 ± 1.9, D4 = 1.8 ± 1.0, and D5 = 0.9 ± 0.5. Mean IQ ratings were as follows: D0 = +1.8 ± 0.2, D1 = +1.5 ± 0.3, D2 = +1.1 ± 0.3, D3 = +0.7 ± 0.5, D4 = +0.1 ± 0.5, and D5 = -1.2 ± 0.5. All values demonstrated a significant difference to baseline (P < .05), except mean IQ for D4 (P = .61). ICC was 0.91. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to ASIR, MBIR allowed for a significant dose reduction of 82% without impairment of IQ. This resulted in a calculated mean effective dose below 1 mSv.

Estudi del model de representació XML/RDF

L'objectiu fonamental d'aquest treball és estudiar les relacions que hi ha a nivell teòric entre XML (eXtensible Markup Language) i RDF (Resource Description Language).

Anàlisi de Requeriments per un Model de Xarxa de Telecomunicacions amb aplicació des d'un Sistema d'Informació Geogràfica

La idea principal és crear un model d'una xarxa de telecomunicacions gestionable des d'un programari d'informació geogràfica (GIS). Es tracta de dissenyar una xarxa simple de fibra òptica similar a les que es fan per a la connexió directa de clients amb aquesta tecnologia.

Evaluation of respiratory model employing conventional NIH mice to access the immunity induced by cellular and acellular pertussis vaccines

The increasing number of pertussis cases reported on the last twenty years and the existence of new acellular vaccines reinforce the need of research for experimental models to assure the quality of available pertussis vaccines. In this study, allotments of whole-cell and acellular pertussis vaccines were tested through the Intranasal Challenge Model (INM) using conventional NIH mice. The results have been compared to those achieved by the "Gold standard" Intracerebral Challenge Model (ICM). In contrast to ICM, INM results did not show intralaboratorial variations. Statistical analysis by Anova and Ancova tests revealed that the INM presented reproducibility and allowed identification and separation of different products, including three-component and four-component accellular pertussis vaccines. INM revealed differences between pertussis vaccines. INM provides lower distress to the mice allowing the reduction of mice number including the possibility of using conventional mice (less expensive) under non-aseptic environment. Thus, INM may be used as an alternative method of verifying the consistence of allotment production, including acellular pertussis vaccines.

Applications of stochastic analysis in finance and statistical inference

First: A continuous-time version of Kyle's model (Kyle 1985), known as the Back's model (Back 1992), of asset pricing with asymmetric information, is studied. A larger class of price processes and of noise traders' processes are studied. The price process, as in Kyle's model, is allowed to depend on the path of the market order. The process of the noise traders' is an inhomogeneous Lévy process. Solutions are found by the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations. With the insider being risk-neutral, the price pressure is constant, and there is no equilibirium in the presence of jumps. If the insider is risk-averse, there is no equilibirium in the presence of either jumps or drifts. Also, it is analised when the release time is unknown. A general relation is established between the problem of finding an equilibrium and of enlargement of filtrations. Random announcement time is random is also considered. In such a case the market is not fully efficient and there exists equilibrium if the sensitivity of prices with respect to the global demand is time decreasing according with the distribution of the random time. Second: Power variations. it is considered, the asymptotic behavior of the power variation of processes of the form _integral_0^t u(s-)dS(s), where S_ is an alpha-stable process with index of stability 0&alpha&2 and the integral is an Itô integral. Stable convergence of corresponding fluctuations is established. These results provide statistical tools to infer the process u from discrete observations. Third: A bond market is studied where short rates r(t) evolve as an integral of g(t-s)sigma(s) with respect to W(ds), where g and sigma are deterministic and W is the stochastic Wiener measure. Processes of this type are particular cases of ambit processes. These processes are in general not of the semimartingale kind.

Uncertainty Quantification Of A Semi-Supervised Support Vector Regression Reservoir Model

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. Recent advances in machine learning offer a novel approach to model spatial distribution of petrophysical properties in complex reservoirs alternative to geostatistics. The approach is based of semisupervised learning, which handles both ?labelled? observed data and ?unlabelled? data, which have no measured value but describe prior knowledge and other relevant data in forms of manifolds in the input space where the modelled property is continuous. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic geological features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. On the other hand, it is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity of high permeability geo-bodies, which is often difficult in contemporary petroleum reservoir studies. Semi-supervised SVR as a data driven algorithm is designed to integrate various kind of conditioning information and learn dependences from it. The semi-supervised SVR model is able to balance signal/noise levels and control the prior belief in available data. In this work, stochastic semi-supervised SVR geomodel is integrated into Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty of reservoir production with multiple models fitted to past dynamic observations (production history). Multiple history matched models are obtained using stochastic sampling and/or MCMC-based inference algorithms, which evaluate posterior probability distribution. Uncertainty of the model is described by posterior probability of the model parameters that represent key geological properties: spatial correlation size, continuity strength, smoothness/variability of spatial property distribution. The developed approach is illustrated with a fluvial reservoir case. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes. The paper compares the performance of the models with different combinations of unknown parameters and discusses sensitivity issues.

L'ús del català i del castellà a l'aula, una realitat més enllà de qualsevol model : Anàlisi de les pràctiques lingüístiques en una aula de 4t d'ESO de l'Institut Lluís de Peguera de Manresa

Anàlisi de l'ús del català i del castellà en una aula de 4t d'ESO de l'Institut Lluís de Peguera de Manresa.

Adaptación y validación al español del cuestionario 4CornerSAT para la medida de la satisfacción profesional del personal médico de atención especializada.

BACKGROUND Satisfaction of physicians is a concern in the healthcare sector, and it requires a multi-dimensional questionnaire in Spanish which studies their high-order needs. The objectives of this study are to adapt the 4CornerSAT Questionnaire to measure career satisfaction of physicians and to evaluate its validity in our context. METHOD The 4CornerSAT Questionnaire was adapted into Spanish, validating it among physicians of hospitals in Andalusia, Spain. A confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was performed to corroborate the a priori model, and it was evaluated the internal consistency and the construct validity through the Cronbach's alpha and the correlation between the scale and the global item, respectively. RESULTS The adapted questionnaire was administrated to 121 specialist physicians. The CFA corroborated the four dimensions of the questionnaire (χ2=114.64, df=94, p<0.07; χ2/df=1.22; RMSEA=0.04). The internal consistency obtained an α=0.92 and the correlation between the summed scale and the global item verified the construct validity (r=0.77; p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS The 4CornerSAT questionnaire was adapted to Spanish, identifying an adequate construct validity and internal consistency.