Study on period search methods of variable stars: Application to ASAS and CRTS databases

Study on variable stars is an important topic of modern astrophysics. After the invention of powerful telescopes and high resolving powered CCD’s, the variable star data is accumulating in the order of peta-bytes. The huge amount of data need lot of automated methods as well as human experts. This thesis is devoted to the data analysis on variable star’s astronomical time series data and hence belong to the inter-disciplinary topic, Astrostatistics. For an observer on earth, stars that have a change in apparent brightness over time are called variable stars. The variation in brightness may be regular (periodic), quasi periodic (semi-periodic) or irregular manner (aperiodic) and are caused by various reasons. In some cases, the variation is due to some internal thermo-nuclear processes, which are generally known as intrinsic vari- ables and in some other cases, it is due to some external processes, like eclipse or rotation, which are known as extrinsic variables. Intrinsic variables can be further grouped into pulsating variables, eruptive variables and flare stars. Extrinsic variables are grouped into eclipsing binary stars and chromospheri- cal stars. Pulsating variables can again classified into Cepheid, RR Lyrae, RV Tauri, Delta Scuti, Mira etc. The eruptive or cataclysmic variables are novae, supernovae, etc., which rarely occurs and are not periodic phenomena. Most of the other variations are periodic in nature. Variable stars can be observed through many ways such as photometry, spectrophotometry and spectroscopy. The sequence of photometric observa- xiv tions on variable stars produces time series data, which contains time, magni- tude and error. The plot between variable star’s apparent magnitude and time are known as light curve. If the time series data is folded on a period, the plot between apparent magnitude and phase is known as phased light curve. The unique shape of phased light curve is a characteristic of each type of variable star. One way to identify the type of variable star and to classify them is by visually looking at the phased light curve by an expert. For last several years, automated algorithms are used to classify a group of variable stars, with the help of computers. Research on variable stars can be divided into different stages like observa- tion, data reduction, data analysis, modeling and classification. The modeling on variable stars helps to determine the short-term and long-term behaviour and to construct theoretical models (for eg:- Wilson-Devinney model for eclips- ing binaries) and to derive stellar properties like mass, radius, luminosity, tem- perature, internal and external structure, chemical composition and evolution. The classification requires the determination of the basic parameters like pe- riod, amplitude and phase and also some other derived parameters. Out of these, period is the most important parameter since the wrong periods can lead to sparse light curves and misleading information. Time series analysis is a method of applying mathematical and statistical tests to data, to quantify the variation, understand the nature of time-varying phenomena, to gain physical understanding of the system and to predict future behavior of the system. Astronomical time series usually suffer from unevenly spaced time instants, varying error conditions and possibility of big gaps. This is due to daily varying daylight and the weather conditions for ground based observations and observations from space may suffer from the impact of cosmic ray particles. Many large scale astronomical surveys such as MACHO, OGLE, EROS, xv ROTSE, PLANET, Hipparcos, MISAO, NSVS, ASAS, Pan-STARRS, Ke- pler,ESA, Gaia, LSST, CRTS provide variable star’s time series data, even though their primary intention is not variable star observation. Center for Astrostatistics, Pennsylvania State University is established to help the astro- nomical community with the aid of statistical tools for harvesting and analysing archival data. Most of these surveys releases the data to the public for further analysis. There exist many period search algorithms through astronomical time se- ries analysis, which can be classified into parametric (assume some underlying distribution for data) and non-parametric (do not assume any statistical model like Gaussian etc.,) methods. Many of the parametric methods are based on variations of discrete Fourier transforms like Generalised Lomb-Scargle peri- odogram (GLSP) by Zechmeister(2009), Significant Spectrum (SigSpec) by Reegen(2007) etc. Non-parametric methods include Phase Dispersion Minimi- sation (PDM) by Stellingwerf(1978) and Cubic spline method by Akerlof(1994) etc. Even though most of the methods can be brought under automation, any of the method stated above could not fully recover the true periods. The wrong detection of period can be due to several reasons such as power leakage to other frequencies which is due to finite total interval, finite sampling interval and finite amount of data. Another problem is aliasing, which is due to the influence of regular sampling. Also spurious periods appear due to long gaps and power flow to harmonic frequencies is an inherent problem of Fourier methods. Hence obtaining the exact period of variable star from it’s time series data is still a difficult problem, in case of huge databases, when subjected to automation. As Matthew Templeton, AAVSO, states “Variable star data analysis is not always straightforward; large-scale, automated analysis design is non-trivial”. Derekas et al. 2007, Deb et.al. 2010 states “The processing of xvi huge amount of data in these databases is quite challenging, even when looking at seemingly small issues such as period determination and classification”. It will be beneficial for the variable star astronomical community, if basic parameters, such as period, amplitude and phase are obtained more accurately, when huge time series databases are subjected to automation. In the present thesis work, the theories of four popular period search methods are studied, the strength and weakness of these methods are evaluated by applying it on two survey databases and finally a modified form of cubic spline method is intro- duced to confirm the exact period of variable star. For the classification of new variable stars discovered and entering them in the “General Catalogue of Vari- able Stars” or other databases like “Variable Star Index“, the characteristics of the variability has to be quantified in term of variable star parameters.

Impact of sward type, cutting date and conditioning temperature on mass and energy flows in the integrated generation of solid fuel and biogas from semi-natural grassland

Energy production from biomass and the conservation of ecologically valuable grassland habitats are two important issues of agriculture today. The combination of a bioenergy production, which minimises environmental impacts and competition with food production for land with a conversion of semi-natural grasslands through new utilization alternatives for the biomass, led to the development of the IFBB process. Its basic principle is the separation of biomass into a liquid fraction (press fluid, PF) for the production of electric and thermal energy after anaerobic digestion to biogas and a solid fraction (press cake, PC) for the production of thermal energy through combustion. This study was undertaken to explore mass and energy flows as well as quality aspects of energy carriers within the IFBB process and determine their dependency on biomass-related and technical parameters. Two experiments were conducted, in which biomass from semi-natural grassland was conserved as silage and subjected to a hydrothermal conditioning and a subsequent mechanical dehydration with a screw press. Methane yield of the PF and the untreated silage was determined in anaerobic digestion experiments in batch fermenters at 37°C with a fermentation time of 13-15 and 27-35 days for the PF and the silage, respectively. Concentrations of dry matter (DM), ash, crude protein (CP), crude fibre (CF), ether extract (EE), neutral detergent fibre (NDF), acid detergent fibre (ADF), acid detergent ligning (ADL) and elements (K, Mg, Ca, Cl, N, S, P, C, H, N) were determined in the untreated biomass and the PC. Higher heating value (HHV) and ash softening temperature (AST) were calculated based on elemental concentration. Chemical composition of the PF and mass flows of all plant compounds into the PF were calculated. In the first experiment, biomass from five different semi-natural grassland swards (Arrhenaterion I and II, Caricion fuscae, Filipendulion ulmariae, Polygono-Trisetion) was harvested at one late sampling (19 July or 31 August) and ensiled. Each silage was subjected to three different temperature treatments (5°C, 60°C, 80°C) during hydrothermal conditioning. Based on observed methane yields and HHV as energy output parameters as well as literature-based and observed energy input parameters, energy and green house gas (GHG) balances were calculated for IFBB and two reference conversion processes, whole-crop digestion of untreated silage (WCD) and combustion of hay (CH). In the second experiment, biomass from one single semi-natural grassland sward (Arrhenaterion) was harvested at eight consecutive dates (27/04, 02/05, 09/05, 16/05, 24/05, 31/05, 11/06, 21/06) and ensiled. Each silage was subjected to six different treatments (no hydrothermal conditioning and hydrothermal conditioning at 10°C, 30°C, 50°C, 70°C, 90°C). Energy balance was calculated for IFBB and WCD. Multiple regression models were developed to predict mass flows, concentrations of elements in the PC, concentration of organic compounds in the PF and energy conversion efficiency of the IFBB process from temperature of hydrothermal conditioning as well as NDF and DM concentration in the silage. Results showed a relative reduction of ash and all elements detrimental for combustion in the PC compared to the untreated biomass of 20-90%. Reduction was highest for K and Cl and lowest for N. HHV of PC and untreated biomass were in a comparable range (17.8-19.5 MJ kg-1 DM), but AST of PC was higher (1156-1254°C). Methane yields of PF were higher compared to those of WCD when the biomass was harvested late (end of May and later) and in a comparable range when the biomass was harvested early and ranged from 332 to 458 LN kg-1 VS. Regarding energy and GHG balances, IFBB, with a net energy yield of 11.9-14.1 MWh ha-1, a conversion efficiency of 0.43-0.51, and GHG mitigation of 3.6-4.4 t CO2eq ha-1, performed better than WCD, but worse than CH. WCD produces thermal and electric energy with low efficiency, CH produces only thermal energy with a low quality solid fuel with high efficiency, IFBB produces thermal and electric energy with a solid fuel of high quality with medium efficiency. Regression models were able to predict target parameters with high accuracy (R2=0.70-0.99). The influence of increasing temperature of hydrothermal conditioning was an increase of mass flows, a decrease of element concentrations in the PC and a differing effect on energy conversion efficiency. The influence of increasing NDF concentration of the silage was a differing effect on mass flows, a decrease of element concentrations in the PC and an increase of energy conversion efficiency. The influence of increasing DM concentration of the silage was a decrease of mass flows, an increase of element concentrations in the PC and an increase of energy conversion efficiency. Based on the models an optimised IFBB process would be obtained with a medium temperature of hydrothermal conditioning (50°C), high NDF concentrations in the silage and medium DM concentrations of the silage.

Influence of management type on Diptera communities of coniferous plantations and deciduous woodlands

The contribution of four types of secondary woodlands to Scottish invertebrate biodiversity was investigated for coniferous plantation forestry, riparian ash-alder woodlands, early successional deciduous woodlands and climax deciduous woodlands. Considerable variation in the type and intensity of management within these four woodland types existed. Adult Diptera from 21 families, representing diverse trophic and ecological guilds, were sampled from 31 woodlands in the Aberdeenshire region of northeast Scotland, between June and August 2001. Environmental differences between woodlands were recorded at each site using environmental parameters such as pH and organic matter content, vegetation characteristics, including percentage canopy cover and dominant field layer plant species. Multivariate ordination techniques detected significant responses in the Dipteran communities to soil type, organic matter content, soil pH, field layer plant species richness, dominant field layer plant species and percentage cover of Pteridium aquilinum. Responses in terms of Dipteran abundance, species richness, diversity and evenness were observed to soil type and dominant species of the field layer vegetation. The role of woodland type and management in diversifying Diptera communities is discussed with a view to maintain and possibly enhance Dipteran and other invertebrate communities in Scottish secondary woodlands. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Lack of flagella disadvantages Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis during the early stages of infection in the rat

The roles of flagella and five fimbriae (SEF14, SEF17, SEF21, pef, lpf) in the early stages (up to 3 days) of Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis (S. Enteritidis) infection have been investigated in the rat. Wild-type strains LA5 and S1400 (fim+/fla+) and insertionally inactivated mutants unable to express the five fimbriae (fim-/fla+), flagella (fim+/fla-) or fimbriae and flagella (fim-/fla-) were used. All wild-type and mutant strains were able to colonize the gut and spread to the mesenteric lymph nodes, liver and spleen. There appeared to be little or no difference between the fim-/fla+ and wild-type (fim+/fla+) strains. In contrast, the numbers of aflagellate (fim+/fla- or fim-/fla-) salmonella in the liver and spleen were transiently reduced. In addition, fim+/fla- or fim-/fla-strains were less able to persist in the upper gastrointestinal tract and the inflammatory responses they elicited in the gut were less severe. Thus, expression of SEF14, SEF17, SEF21, pef and lpf did not appear to be a prerequisite for induction of S. Enteritidis infection in the rat. Deletion of flagella did, however, disadvantage the bacterium. This may be due to the inability to produce or release the potent immunomodulating protein flagellin.

Restricting microbial exposure in early life negates the immune benefits associated with gut colonization in environments of high microbial diversity

Background: Acquisition of the intestinal microbiota in early life corresponds with the development of the mucosal immune system. Recent work on caesarean-delivered infants revealed that early microbial composition is influenced by birthing method and environment. Furthermore, we have confirmed that early-life environment strongly influences both the adult gut microbiota and development of the gut immune system. Here, we address the impact of limiting microbial exposure after initial colonization on the development of adult gut immunity. Methodology/Principal Findings: Piglets were born in indoor or outdoor rearing units, allowing natural colonization in the immediate period after birth, prior to transfer to high-health status isolators. Strikingly, gut closure and morphological development were strongly affected by isolator-rearing, independent of indoor or outdoor origins of piglets. Isolator-reared animals showed extensive vacuolation and disorganization of the gut epithelium, inferring that normal gut closure requires maturation factors present in maternal milk. Although morphological maturation and gut closure were delayed in isolatorreared animals, these hard-wired events occurred later in development. Type I IFN, IL-22, IL-23 and Th17 pathways were increased in indoor-isolator compared to outdoor-isolator animals during early life, indicating greater immune activation in pigs originating from indoor environments reflecting differences in the early microbiota. This difference was less apparent later in development due to enhanced immune activation and convergence of the microbiota in all isolator-reared animals. This correlated with elevation of Type I IFN pathways in both groups, although T cell pathways were still more affected in indoor-reared animals. Conclusions/Significance: Environmental factors, in particular microbial exposure, influence expression of a large number of immune-related genes. However, the homeostatic effects of microbial colonization in outdoor environments require sustained microbial exposure throughout development. Gut development in high-hygiene environments negatively impacts on normal succession of the gut microbiota and promotes innate immune activation which may impair immune homeostasis.

What is outside? The early years foundation stage in England: outdoor facilities, organisation and staff attitudes

The purpose of this paper is to report on the facilities available, organisation of, and staff attitudes to early years outdoor education from schools within the south east of England, focusing on provision for children aged three to five. One component of the successful education of the child involves providing an ‘environment for learning’, including the facilities, layout and routines. This paper presents findings concerning the type and variety of facilities available outside; the various styles of organisation of the space; staff attitudes about: their roles, their aims for the environment, children’s behaviour and learning, and perceived drawbacks to practice. This paper draws on empirical data collected from schools within the University of Reading partnership. The findings suggest that although all early years settings must adhere to the statutory framework there are a range of facilities available, and there are a number of ways this environment is organised. Further there appears to be uncertainty about the adult role outside and the aims for activities. The conclusions drawn indicate that staff do not appear to be linking their aims for outdoor education to the facilities provided or to their actions outside. This means there is not a clear link between what staff provide outside and the declared ambitions for learning. This study is important as all educators need to be certain about their aims for education to ensure best outcomes for children. The implications of these findings for early years teachers are that they need to be able to articulate their aims for outdoor education and to provide the correct facilities to achieve these aims. Finally this study was undertaken to raise debate, posit questions and to ascertain the parameters for further research about the early years outdoor environment.

An unexpected legacy and its contribution to early Indian typography

Reprinted from Matrix 7 (Winter 1987) with revisions

Motivational trajectories for early language learning across the primary-secondary school transition

The transition from primary to secondary school is an area of concern across a range of curriculum subjects, and this is no less so for foreign language learning. Indeed problems with transition have been identified in England as an important barrier to the introduction of language learning to the primary school curriculum, with implications for learners’ longer-term motivation for the subject. This longitudinal study investigated, through a questionnaire, the development of 233 learners’ motivation for learning French in England, during the transition from primary to secondary schooling. It also explored whether levels and patterns of motivation differed according to the type of language teaching experienced, comparing a largely oracy-focused approach with one with greater emphasis on literacy activities. Learners showed high and increasing levels of motivation across transition, placing particular value on learning French for travel. Being taught through an oracy or a literacy-focused approach had less impact on learners’ motivation than broader classroom experiences, with the development of a sense of progress and feeling that instruction met their learning needs being especially important. A growing disjuncture emerged between valuing the learning of French for travel/communication and learners’ low levels of self-efficacy for communication with native speakers, together with a desire for more communication-based activities. By the end of the first year of secondary school less positive attitudes towards learning French and less optimism about the possibility of future progress were beginning to emerge. The paper concludes by outlining the implications of the study for classroom practice in language learning.

Comparison of biological behavior between early-stage adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma of the uterine cervix

Objectives: (1) To compare the anatomopathological variables and recurrence rates in patients with early-stage adenocarcinoma (AC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the uterine cervix; (2) to identify the independent risk factors for recurrence. Study design: This historical cohort study assessed 238 patients with carcinoma of the uterine cervix (113 and IIA), who underwent radical hysterectomy with pelvic lymph node dissection between 1980 and 1999. Comparison of category variables between the two histological types was carried out using the Pearson`s X-2 test or Fisher exact test. Disease-free survival rates for AC and SCC were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and the curves were compared using the log-rank test. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify the independent risk factors for recurrence. Results: There were 35 cases of AC (14.7%) and 203 of SCC (85.3%). AC presented lower histological grade than did SCC (grade 1: 68.6% versus 9.4%; p < 0.001), lower rate of lymphovascular space involvement (25.7% versus 53.7%; p = 0.002), lower rate of invasion into the middle or deep thirds of the uterine cervix (40.0% versus 80.8%; p < 0.001) and lower rate of lymph node metastasis (2.9% versus 16.3%; p = 0.036). Although the recurrence rate was lower for AC than for SCC (11.4% versus 15.8%), this difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.509). Multivariate analysis identified three independent risk factors for recurrence: presence of metastases in the pelvic lymph nodes, invasion of the deep third of the uterine cervix and absence of or slight inflammatory reaction in the cervix. When these variables were adjusted for the histological type and radiotherapy status, they remained in the model as independent risk factors. Conclusion: The AC group showed less aggressive histological behavior than did the SCC group, but no difference in the disease-free survival rates was noted. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relationship Between Expression of Voltage-Dependent Anion Channel (VDAC) Isoforms and Type of Hexokinase Binding Sites on Brain Mitochondria

Voltage-dependent anion channels (VDAC) are pore-forming proteins found in the outer mitochondrial membrane of eukaryotes. VDACs are known to play an essential role in cellular metabolism and in early stages of apoptosis. In mammals, three VDAC isoforms have been identified. A proteomic approach was exploited to study the expression of VDAC isoforms in rat, bovine, and chicken brain mitochondria. Given the importance of mitochondrially bound hexokinase in regulation of aerobic glycolysis in brain, we studied the possibility that differences in the relative expression of VDAC isoforms may be a factor in determining the species-dependent ratio of type A/type B hexokinase binding sites on brain mitochondria. The spots were characterized, and the signal intensities among spots were compared. VDAC1 was the most abundantly expressed of the three isoforms. Moreover the expression of VDAC1 plus VDAC2 was significantly higher in bovine than in rat brain. Chicken brain mitochondria showed the highest VDAC1 expression and the lowest of VDAC2. Bovine brain mitochondria had the highest VDAC2 levels. We concluded that the nature of hexokinase binding site is not determined by the expression of a single VDAC isoform.

Imprints of fast-rotating massive stars in the Galactic Bulge

The first stars that formed after the Big Bang were probably massive(1), and they provided the Universe with the first elements heavier than helium (`metals`), which were incorporated into low-mass stars that have survived to the present(2,3). Eight stars in the oldest globular cluster in the Galaxy, NGC 6522, were found to have surface abundances consistent with the gas from which they formed being enriched by massive stars(4) (that is, with higher alpha-element/Fe and Eu/Fe ratios than those of the Sun). However, the same stars have anomalously high abundances of Ba and La with respect to Fe(4), which usually arises through nucleosynthesis in low-mass stars(5) (via the slow-neutron-capture process, or s-process). Recent theory suggests that metal-poor fast-rotating massive stars are able to boost the s-process yields by up to four orders of magnitude(6), which might provide a solution to this contradiction. Here we report a reanalysis of the earlier spectra, which reveals that Y and Sr are also over-abundant with respect to Fe, showing a large scatter similar to that observed in extremely metal-poor stars(7), whereas C abundances are not enhanced. This pattern is best explained as originating in metal-poor fast-rotating massive stars, which might point to a common property of the first stellar generations and even of the `first stars`.

THE GEMINI NICI PLANET-FINDING CAMPAIGN: DISCOVERY OF A SUBSTELLAR L DWARF COMPANION TO THE NEARBY YOUNG M DWARF CD-35 2722

We present the discovery of a wide (67 AU) substellar companion to the nearby (21 pc) young solar-metallicity M1 dwarf CD-35 2722, a member of the approximate to 100 Myr AB Doradus association. Two epochs of astrometry from the NICI Planet-Finding Campaign confirm that CD-35 2722 B is physically associated with the primary star. Near-IR spectra indicate a spectral type of L4 +/- 1 with a moderately low surface gravity, making it one of the coolest young companions found to date. The absorption lines and near-IR continuum shape of CD-35 2722 B agree especially well the dusty field L4.5 dwarf 2MASS J22244381-0158521, while the near-IR colors and absolute magnitudes match those of the 5 Myr old L4 planetary-mass companion, 1RXS J160929.1-210524 b. Overall, CD-35 2722 B appears to be an intermediate-age benchmark for L dwarfs, with a less peaked H-band continuum than the youngest objects and near-IR absorption lines comparable to field objects. We fit Ames-Dusty model atmospheres to the near-IR spectra and find T(eff) = 1700-1900 K and log(g) = 4.5 +/- 0.5. The spectra also show that the radial velocities of components A and B agree to within +/- 10 km s(-1), further confirming their physical association. Using the age and bolometric luminosity of CD-35 2722 B, we derive a mass of 31 +/- 8 M(Jup) from the Lyon/Dusty evolutionary models. Altogether, young late-M to mid-L type companions appear to be overluminous for their near-IR spectral type compared with field objects, in contrast to the underluminosity of young late-L and early-T dwarfs.

SIMULATIONS OF WINDS OF WEAK-LINED T TAURI STARS. II. THE EFFECTS OF A TILTED MAGNETOSPHERE AND PLANETARY INTERACTIONS

Based on our previous work, we investigate here the effects on the wind and magnetospheric structures of weak-lined T Tauri stars due to a misalignment between the axis of rotation of the star and its magnetic dipole moment vector. In such a configuration, the system loses the axisymmetry presented in the aligned case, requiring a fully three-dimensional (3D) approach. We perform 3D numerical magnetohydrodynamic simulations of stellar winds and study the effects caused by different model parameters, namely the misalignment angle theta(t), the stellar period of rotation, the plasma-beta, and the heating index.. Our simulations take into account the interplay between the wind and the stellar magnetic field during the time evolution. The system reaches a periodic behavior with the same rotational period of the star. We show that the magnetic field lines present an oscillatory pattern. Furthermore, we obtain that by increasing theta(t), the wind velocity increases, especially in the case of strong magnetic field and relatively rapid stellar rotation. Our 3D, time-dependent wind models allow us to study the interaction of a magnetized wind with a magnetized extrasolar planet. Such interaction gives rise to reconnection, generating electrons that propagate along the planet`s magnetic field lines and produce electron cyclotron radiation at radio wavelengths. The power released in the interaction depends on the planet`s magnetic field intensity, its orbital radius, and on the stellar wind local characteristics. We find that a close-in Jupiter-like planet orbiting at 0.05 AU presents a radio power that is similar to 5 orders of magnitude larger than the one observed in Jupiter, which suggests that the stellar wind from a young star has the potential to generate strong planetary radio emission that could be detected in the near future with LOFAR. This radio power varies according to the phase of rotation of the star. For three selected simulations, we find a variation of the radio power of a factor 1.3-3.7, depending on theta(t). Moreover, we extend the investigation done in Vidotto et al. and analyze whether winds from misaligned stellar magnetospheres could cause a significant effect on planetary migration. Compared to the aligned case, we show that the timescale tau(w) for an appreciable radial motion of the planet is shorter for larger misalignment angles. While for the aligned case tau(w) similar or equal to 100 Myr, for a stellar magnetosphere tilted by theta(t) = 30 degrees, tau(w) ranges from similar to 40 to 70 Myr for a planet located at a radius of 0.05 AU. Further reduction on tau(w) might occur for even larger misalignment angles and/or different wind parameters.

Fragmentation drives tropical forest fragments to early successional states: A modelling study for Brazilian Atlantic forests

Land use leads to massive habitat destruction and fragmentation in tropical forests. Despite its global dimensions the effects of fragmentation on ecosystem dynamics are not well understood due to the complexity of the problem. We present a simulation analysis performed by the individual-based model FORMIND. The model was applied to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, one of the world`s biodiversity hot spots, at the Plateau of Sao Paulo. This study investigates the long-term effects of fragmentation processes on structure and dynamics of different sized remnant tropical forest fragments (1-100 ha) at community and plant functional type (PFT) level. We disentangle the interplay of single effects of different key fragmentation processes (edge mortality, increased mortality of large trees, local seed loss and external seed rain) using simulation experiments in a full factorial design. Our analysis reveals that particularly small forest fragments below 25 ha suffer substantial structural changes, biomass and biodiversity loss in the long term. At community level biomass is reduced up to 60%. Two thirds of the mid- and late-successional species groups, especially shade-tolerant (late successional climax) species groups are prone of extinction in small fragments. The shade-tolerant species groups were most strongly affected; its tree number was reduced more than 60% mainly by increased edge mortality. This process proved to be the most powerful of those investigated, explaining alone more than 80% of the changes observed for this group. External seed rain was able to compensate approximately 30% of the observed fragmentation effects for shade-tolerant species. Our results suggest that tropical forest fragments will suffer strong structural changes in the long term, leading to tree species impoverishment. They may reach a new equilibrium with a substantially reduced subset of the initial species pool, and are driven towards an earlier successional state. The natural regeneration potential of a landscape scattered with forest fragments appears to be limited, as external seed rain is not able to fully compensate for the observed fragmentation-induced changes. Our findings suggest basic recommendations for the management of fragmented tropical forest landscapes. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.