Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

pido, a non-long terminal repeat retrotransposon of the chicken repeat 1 family from the genome of the Oriental blood fluke, Schistosoma japonicum

A newly described non-long terminal repeat (non-LTR) retrotransposon element was isolated from the genome of the Oriental schistosome, Schistosoma japonicum. At least 1000 partial copies of the element, which was named pido, were dispersed throughout the genome of S. japonicum. As is usual with non-LTR retrotransposons, it is expected that many pido elements will be 5'-truncated. A consensus sequence of 3564 bp of the truncated pido element was assembled from several genomic fragments that contained pido-hybridizing sequences. The sequence encoded part of the first open reading frame (ORF), the entire second ORF and, at its 3'-terminus, a tandemly repetitive, A-rich (TA(6)TA(5)TA(8)) tail, The ORF1 of pido encoded a nucleic acid binding protein and ORF2 encoded a retroviral-like polyprotein that included apurinic/apyrimidinic endonuclease (EN) and reverse transcriptase (RT) domains, in that order. Based on its sequence and structure, and phylogenetic analyses of both the RT and EN domains, pido belongs to the chicken repeat 1 (CR1)-like lineage of elements known from the chicken, turtle, puffer fish, mosquitoes and other taxa. pido shared equal similarity with CRI from chicken, an uncharacterized retrotransposon from Caenorhabditis elegans and SR1 (a non-LTR retrotransposon) from the related blood fluke Schistosoma mansoni; the level of similarity between pido and SR1 indicated that these two schistosome retrotransposons were related but not orthologous. The findings indicate that schistosomes have been colonized by at least two discrete CRI-like elements. Whereas pido did not appear to have a tight target site specificity, at least one copy of pido has inserted into the 3'-untranslated region of a protein-encoding gene (GeriBank AW736757) of as yet unknown identity. mRNA encoding the RT of pido was detected by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction in the egg, miracidium. and adult developmental stages of S. japonicum, indicating that the RT domain was transcribed and suggesting that pido was replicating actively and mobile within the S. japonicum genome. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Reverse transcriptase activity and untranslated region sharing of a new RTE-like, non-long terminal repeat retrotransposon from the human blood fluke, Schistosoma japonicum

A new RTE-like, non-long terminal repeat retrotransposon, termed SjR2, from the human blood fluke, Schistosoma japonicum, is described. SjR2 is similar to3.9 kb in length and is constituted of a single open reading frame encoding a polyprotein with apurinic/apyrimidinic endonuclease and reverse transcriptase domains. The open reading frame is bounded by 5'- and 3'-terininal untranslated regions and, at its 3-terminus, SjR2 bears a short (TGAC)(3) repeat. Phylogenetic analyses based on conserved domains of reverse transcriptase or endonuclease revealed that SjR2 belonged to the RTE clade of non-long terminal repeat retrotransposons. Further, SjR2 was homologous, but probably not orthologous, to SR2 front the African blood fluke, Schistosoma mansoni; this RTE-like family of non-long terminal repeat retrotransposons appears to have arisen before the divergence of the extant schistosome species. Hybridisation analyses indicated that similar to 10,000 copies of SjR2 were dispersed throughout the S. japonicum chromosomes, accounting for up to 14% of the nuclear genome. Messenger RNAs encoding the reverse transcriptase and endonuclease domains of SjR2 were detected in several developmental stages of the schistosome, indicating that the retrotransposon was actively replicating within the genome of the parasite. Exploration of the coding and non-coding regions of SjR2 revealed two notable characteristics. First, the recombinant reverse transcriptase domain of SjR2 expressed in insect cells primed reverse transcription of SjR2 mRNA in vitro. By contrast, recombinant SjR2-endonuclease did not appear to cleave schistosome or plasmid DNA. Second, the 5'-untranslated region of SjR2 was >80% identical to the 3-untranslated region of a schistosome heat shock protein-70 gene (hsp-70) in the antisense orientation, indicating that SjR2-like elements were probably inserted into the non-coding regions of ancestral S. japonicum HSP-70, probably after the species diverged from S. mansoni. (C) 2002 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

Differential modes of alaryngeal communication and long-term voice outcomes following pharyngolaryngectomy and laryngectomy

Patterns of vocal rehabilitation for 37 pharyngolaryngectomy patients and 55 total laryngectomy patients over a 5-year period were compared. An electrolarynx (EL) was introduced as the initial communication mode immediately after surgery for 98% of patients, with 30% of pharyngolaryngectomy and 74% of laryngectomy patients subsequently developing tracheoesophageal speech (TES) as their primary mode of communication. Follow-up with 14 of 37 pharyngolaryngectomy patients and 36 of 55 laryngectomy patients was conducted 1-6 years following surgery and revealed that 90% of the pharyngolaryngectomy patients maintained the use of TES in the long term compared to 69% of the laryngectomy group. Long-term outcomes relating to communication disability and handicap did not differ significantly between the two surgical groups, however the laryngectomy patients had significantly higher levels of wellbeing. Across the whole group of patients, statistical comparison revealed that patients using TES had significantly lower levels of disability, handicap and distress than EL users. Considering that lower levels of disability, handicap and distress are associated with TES, and the data supports that suitably selected patients can maintain functional TES in the long term, increased application of this form of communication rehabilitation should be encouraged where viable for the pharyngolaryngectomy population. Copyright (C) 2003 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Amylases in enzyme detergents and their effects on a simulated long-life dairy dessert

Enzyme detergents used in the food industry contain proteinase as the major enzyme but amylase may be present, either by design or inadvertently. Three commercial enzyme detergents and 3 enzyme preparations used in detergents were assayed for alpha-amylase activity by the Ceralpha method using the Megazyme kits. The amylase activities of the detergents varied from 3.2x 10(-6) to 32x 10(-6) mumoles ml(-1) h(-1) while the enzyme preparations had much higher activities ranging from 0.05 to 8.06 mumoles ml(-1) h(-1). When added aseptically to a simulated dairy dessert (2% starch solution) and stored for 42 days, the enzyme detergents caused an increase in viscosity; enzyme preparations at low concentrations caused an initial increase in viscosity followed by a decrease; and enzyme preparations at high concentrations caused an immediate decrease in viscosity. The increase in viscosity corresponded to formation of a distinct network of starch granules while the decrease in viscosity was characterised by a marked decrease in size of the granules and little or no network of granules. Decreases in viscosity corresponded to increases in reducing sugars but samples which increased in viscosity showed no measurable reducing sugars. The amylase activity in all sources was destroyed by heating at 75degreesC for 15 min at pH 1.8.

A review of drainage and spontaneous rupture in free standing thin films with tangentially immobile interfaces

A review of spontaneous rupture in thin films with tangentially immobile interfaces is presented that emphasizes the theoretical developments of film drainage and corrugation growth through the linearization of lubrication theory in a cylindrical geometry. Spontaneous rupture occurs when corrugations from adjacent interfaces become unstable and grow to a critical thickness. A corrugated interface is composed of a number of waveforms and each waveform becomes unstable at a unique transition thickness. The onset of instability occurs at the maximum transition thickness, and it is shown that only upper and lower bounds of this thickness can be predicted from linear stability analysis. The upper bound is equivalent to the Freakel criterion and is obtained from the zeroth order approximation of the H-3 term in the evolution equation. This criterion is determined solely by the film radius, interfacial tension and Hamaker constant. The lower bound is obtained from the first order approximation of the H-3 term in the evolution equation and is dependent on the film thinning velocity A semi-empirical equation, referred to as the MTR equation, is obtained by combining the drainage theory of Manev et al. [J. Dispersion Sci. Technol., 18 (1997) 769] and the experimental measurements of Radoev et al. [J. Colloid Interface Sci. 95 (1983) 254] and is shown to provide accurate predictions of film thinning velocity near the critical thickness of rupture. The MTR equation permits the prediction of the lower bound of the maximum transition thickness based entirely on film radius, Plateau border radius, interfacial tension, temperature and Hamaker constant. The MTR equation extrapolates to Reynolds equation under conditions when the Plateau border pressure is small, which provides a lower bound for the maximum transition thickness that is equivalent to the criterion of Gumerman and Homsy [Chem. Eng. Commun. 2 (1975) 27]. The relative accuracy of either bound is thought to be dependent on the amplitude of the hydrodynamic corrugations, and a semiempirical correlation is also obtained that permits the amplitude to be calculated as a function of the upper and lower bound of the maximum transition thickness. The relationship between the evolving theoretical developments is demonstrated by three film thickness master curves, which reduce to simple analytical expressions under limiting conditions when the drainage pressure drop is controlled by either the Plateau border capillary pressure or the van der Waals disjoining pressure. The master curves simplify solution of the various theoretical predictions enormously over the entire range of the linear approximation. Finally, it is shown that when the Frenkel criterion is used to assess film stability, recent studies reach conclusions that are contrary to the relevance of spontaneous rupture as a cell-opening mechanism in foams. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Simultaneous observations of ionospheric quasiperiodic scintillations from short and long meridional baselines using VHF transmissions from transit satellites

For the first time it was possible to observe regular quasiperiodic scintillations (QPS) in VHF radio-satellite transmissions from orbiting satellites simultaneously at short (2.1 km) and long (121 km) meridional baselines in the vicinity of a typical mid-latitude station (Brisbane; 27.5degreesS and 152.9degreesE geog. and 35.6degrees invar.lat.), using three sites (St. Lucia-S, Taringa-T in Brisbane and Boreen Pt.-B, north of Brisbane). A few pronounced quasiperiodic (QP) events were recorded showing unambiguous regular structures at the sites which made it possible to deduce a time displacement of the regular fading minimum at S, T and B. The QP structure is highly dependent on the geometry of the ray-path from a satellite to the observer which is manifested as a change of a QP event from symmetrical to non-symmetrical for stations separated by 2.1 km, and to a radical change in the structure of the event over a distance of 121 km. It is suggested the short-duration intense QP events are due to a Fresnel diffraction (or a reflection mechanism) of radio-satellite signals by a single ionospheric irregularity in a form of an ellipsoid with a large ionization gradient along the major axis. The structure of a QP event depends on the angle of viewing of the irregular blob from a radio-satellite. In view of this it is suggested that the reported variety of the ionization formation, responsible for different types of QPS, is only apparent but not real. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The application of wave induced forces to a two-dimensional finite element long wave hydrodynamic model

This paper describes the modification of a two-dimensional finite element long wave hydrodynamic model in order to predict the net current and water levels attributable to the influences of waves. Tests examine the effects of the application of wave induced forces, including comparisons to a physical experiment. An example of a real river system is presented with comparisons to measured data, which demonstrate the importance of simulating the combined effects of tides and waves upon hydrodynamic behavior. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chemical treatment of papaya seeds aiming at long-term storage and control of damping off

Damping off is a nursery disease of great economic importance in papaya and seed treatment may be an effective measure to control. The aim of this work was to evaluate the quality of papaya seeds treated with fungicides and stored under two environmental and packaging conditions. Additionally, the efficiency of fungicide treatments in the control of damping-off caused by Rhizoctonia solani was evaluated. Papaya seeds were treated with the fungicides Captan, Tolylfluanid and the mixture Tolylfluanid + Captan (all commercial wettable powder formulations). Seeds of the control group were not treated. The seeds were stored for nine months in two conditions: packed in aluminum coated paper and kept at 7 ± 1ºC and in permeable kraft paper and kept in non-controlled environment. At the beginning of the storage and every three months the seed quality (germination and vigor tests), emergence rate index, height, dry mass and damping of plants in pre and post-emergence (in contaminated substrate and mycelia-free substrate) were analyzed. Both storage conditions as well as the fungicide treatments preserved the germination and seed vigor. In the infested substrate, seedling emergence was favored by fungicides, but in post-emergence, fungicides alone did not control the damping off caused by R. solani. Symptoms of damping off were not observed in the clean substrate. The results showed that the fungicide treatments may be used to pretreat papaya seed for long-term storage and commercialization.

Is the pollination efficiency of long-lived orchid flowers affected by age?

The long-lived flowers of orchids increase the chances of pollination and thus the reproductive success of the species. However, a question arises: does the efficiency of pollination, expressed by fruit set, vary with the flower age? The objective of this study was to verify whether the flower age of Corymborkis flava(Sw.) Kuntze affects pollination efficiency. The following hypotheses were tested: 1) the fruit set of older flowers is lower than that of younger ones; 2) morphological observations (perianth and stigmatic area), stigma receptivity test by using a solution of hydrogen peroxide and hand-pollination tests are equally effective in defining the period of stigmatic receptivity. Flowers were found to be receptive from the first to the fourth day of anthesis. Fruit set of older flowers (third and fourth day) was lower than that of younger flowers. Morphological observations, the stigma receptivity test and hand-pollinations were equally effective in defining the period of stigmatic receptivity. However, to evaluate the maximum degree of stigma receptivity of orchid species with long-lived flowers, we recommend hand-pollinations, beyond the period of receptivity.