Analysis and developments of uncertainty processors for real time flood forecasting

The hydrologic risk (and the hydro-geologic one, closely related to it) is, and has always been, a very relevant issue, due to the severe consequences that may be provoked by a flooding or by waters in general in terms of human and economic losses. Floods are natural phenomena, often catastrophic, and cannot be avoided, but their damages can be reduced if they are predicted sufficiently in advance. For this reason, the flood forecasting plays an essential role in the hydro-geological and hydrological risk prevention. Thanks to the development of sophisticated meteorological, hydrologic and hydraulic models, in recent decades the flood forecasting has made a significant progress, nonetheless, models are imperfect, which means that we are still left with a residual uncertainty on what will actually happen. In this thesis, this type of uncertainty is what will be discussed and analyzed. In operational problems, it is possible to affirm that the ultimate aim of forecasting systems is not to reproduce the river behavior, but this is only a means through which reducing the uncertainty associated to what will happen as a consequence of a precipitation event. In other words, the main objective is to assess whether or not preventive interventions should be adopted and which operational strategy may represent the best option. The main problem for a decision maker is to interpret model results and translate them into an effective intervention strategy. To make this possible, it is necessary to clearly define what is meant by uncertainty, since in the literature confusion is often made on this issue. Therefore, the first objective of this thesis is to clarify this concept, starting with a key question: should be the choice of the intervention strategy to adopt based on the evaluation of the model prediction based on its ability to represent the reality or on the evaluation of what actually will happen on the basis of the information given by the model forecast? Once the previous idea is made unambiguous, the other main concern of this work is to develope a tool that can provide an effective decision support, making possible doing objective and realistic risk evaluations. In particular, such tool should be able to provide an uncertainty assessment as accurate as possible. This means primarily three things: it must be able to correctly combine all the available deterministic forecasts, it must assess the probability distribution of the predicted quantity and it must quantify the flooding probability. Furthermore, given that the time to implement prevention strategies is often limited, the flooding probability will have to be linked to the time of occurrence. For this reason, it is necessary to quantify the flooding probability within a horizon time related to that required to implement the intervention strategy and it is also necessary to assess the probability of the flooding time.

Metodi biochimici e biomolecolari applicati alla medicina clinica: rendimento della real-time TaqMan PCR per la valutazione della resistenza alla claritromicina in H.pylori e tests fecali nella diagnorstica del carcinoma colo-rettale: M2PK, calprotectina e FOBT

1) Background: The most common methods to evaluate clarithromycin resistance is the E-Test, but is time consuming. Resistance of Hp to clarithromycin is due to point mutations in the 23S rRNA. Eight different point mutations have been related to CH resistance, but the large majority of the clarithromycin resistance depends on three point mutations (A2142C, A2142G and A2143G). A novel PCR-based clarithromycin resistance assays, even on paraffin-embedded biopsy specimens, have been proposed. Aims: to assess clarithromycin resistance detecting these point mutation (E-Test as a reference method);secondly, to investigate relation with MIC values. Methods: Paraffin-embedded biopsies of patients Hp-positive were retrieved. The A2142C, A2142G and A2143G point mutations were detected by molecular analysis after DNA extraction by using a TaqMan real-time PCR. Results: The study enrolled 86 patients: 46 resistant and 40 sensible to CH. The Hp status was evaluated at endoscopy, by rapid urease test (RUT), histology and hp culture. According to real-time PCR, 37 specimens were susceptible to clarithromycin (wild type dna) whilst the remaining 49 specimens (57%) were resistant. A2143G is the most frequent mutation. A2142C always express a resistant phenotype and A2142G leads to a resitant phenotype only if homozigous. 2) Background: Colonoscopy work-load for endoscopy services is increasing due to colorectal cancer prevention. We tested a combination of faecal tests to improve accuracy and prioritize the access to colonoscopy. Methods: we tested a combination of fecal tests (FOBT, M2-PK and calprotectin) in a group of 280 patients requiring colonoscopy. Results: 47 patients had CRC and 85 had advanced adenoma/s at colonoscopy/histology. In case of single test, for CRC detection FOBT was the test with the highest specificity and PPV, M2-PK had the highest sensitivity and higher NPV. Combination was more interesting in term of PPV. And the best combination of tests was i-FOBT + M2-PK.

Operating System Contribution to Composable Timing Behaviour in High-Integrity Real-Time Systems

The development of High-Integrity Real-Time Systems has a high footprint in terms of human, material and schedule costs. Factoring functional, reusable logic in the application favors incremental development and contains costs. Yet, achieving incrementality in the timing behavior is a much harder problem. Complex features at all levels of the execution stack, aimed to boost average-case performance, exhibit timing behavior highly dependent on execution history, which wrecks time composability and incrementaility with it. Our goal here is to restitute time composability to the execution stack, working bottom up across it. We first characterize time composability without making assumptions on the system architecture or the software deployment to it. Later, we focus on the role played by the real-time operating system in our pursuit. Initially we consider single-core processors and, becoming less permissive on the admissible hardware features, we devise solutions that restore a convincing degree of time composability. To show what can be done for real, we developed TiCOS, an ARINC-compliant kernel, and re-designed ORK+, a kernel for Ada Ravenscar runtimes. In that work, we added support for limited-preemption to ORK+, an absolute premiere in the landscape of real-word kernels. Our implementation allows resource sharing to co-exist with limited-preemptive scheduling, which extends state of the art. We then turn our attention to multicore architectures, first considering partitioned systems, for which we achieve results close to those obtained for single-core processors. Subsequently, we shy away from the over-provision of those systems and consider less restrictive uses of homogeneous multiprocessors, where the scheduling algorithm is key to high schedulable utilization. To that end we single out RUN, a promising baseline, and extend it to SPRINT, which supports sporadic task sets, hence matches real-world industrial needs better. To corroborate our results we present findings from real-world case studies from avionic industry.

Optimized scheduling in real-time environments with column generation

Im Bereich sicherheitsrelevanter eingebetteter Systeme stellt sich der Designprozess von Anwendungen als sehr komplex dar. Entsprechend einer gegebenen Hardwarearchitektur lassen sich Steuergeräte aufrüsten, um alle bestehenden Prozesse und Signale pünktlich auszuführen. Die zeitlichen Anforderungen sind strikt und müssen in jeder periodischen Wiederkehr der Prozesse erfüllt sein, da die Sicherstellung der parallelen Ausführung von größter Bedeutung ist. Existierende Ansätze können schnell Designalternativen berechnen, aber sie gewährleisten nicht, dass die Kosten für die nötigen Hardwareänderungen minimal sind. Wir stellen einen Ansatz vor, der kostenminimale Lösungen für das Problem berechnet, die alle zeitlichen Bedingungen erfüllen. Unser Algorithmus verwendet Lineare Programmierung mit Spaltengenerierung, eingebettet in eine Baumstruktur, um untere und obere Schranken während des Optimierungsprozesses bereitzustellen. Die komplexen Randbedingungen zur Gewährleistung der periodischen Ausführung verlagern sich durch eine Zerlegung des Hauptproblems in unabhängige Unterprobleme, die als ganzzahlige lineare Programme formuliert sind. Sowohl die Analysen zur Prozessausführung als auch die Methoden zur Signalübertragung werden untersucht und linearisierte Darstellungen angegeben. Des Weiteren präsentieren wir eine neue Formulierung für die Ausführung mit fixierten Prioritäten, die zusätzlich Prozessantwortzeiten im schlimmsten anzunehmenden Fall berechnet, welche für Szenarien nötig sind, in denen zeitliche Bedingungen an Teilmengen von Prozessen und Signalen gegeben sind. Wir weisen die Anwendbarkeit unserer Methoden durch die Analyse von Instanzen nach, welche Prozessstrukturen aus realen Anwendungen enthalten. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass untere Schranken schnell berechnet werden können, um die Optimalität von heuristischen Lösungen zu beweisen. Wenn wir optimale Lösungen mit Antwortzeiten liefern, stellt sich unsere neue Formulierung in der Laufzeitanalyse vorteilhaft gegenüber anderen Ansätzen dar. Die besten Resultate werden mit einem hybriden Ansatz erzielt, der heuristische Startlösungen, eine Vorverarbeitung und eine heuristische mit einer kurzen nachfolgenden exakten Berechnungsphase verbindet.

Comparison of real-time polymerase chain reaction and DNA-strip technology in microbiological evaluation of periodontitis treatment

The impact of a semiquantitative commercially available test based on DNA-strip technology (microIDent®, Hain Lifescience, Nehren, Germany) on diagnosis and treatment of severe chronic periodontitis of 25 periodontitis patients was evaluated in comparison with a quantitative in-house real-time PCR. Subgingival plaque samples were collected at baseline as well as at 3, 6, and 12 months later. After extracting DNA, Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans, Porphyromonas gingivalis, Tannerella forsythia, Treponema denticola, and several other periodontopathogens were determined by both methods. The results obtained by DNA-strip technology were analyzed semiquantitatively and additionally quantitatively by densitometry. The results for the 4 major periodontopathogenic bacterial species correlated significantly between the 2 methods. Samples detecting a high bacterial load by one method and negative by the other were always found in less than 2% of the total samples. Both technologies showed the impact of treatment on microflora. Especially the semiquantitative DNA-strip technology clearly analyzed the different loads of periodontopathogens after therapy and is useful in microbial diagnostics for patients in dental practices.

Laboratory-based ROTEM(®) analysis: implementing pneumatic tube transport and real-time graphic transmission

ROTEM(®) is considered a helpful point-of-care device to monitor blood coagulation. Centrally performed analysis is desirable but rapid transport of blood samples and real-time transmission of graphic results are an important prerequisite. The effect of sample transport through a pneumatic tube system on ROTEM(®) results is unknown. The aims of the present work were (i) to determine the influence of blood sample transport through a pneumatic tube system on ROTEM(®) parameters compared to manual transportation, and (ii) to verify whether graphic results can be transmitted on line via virtual network computing using local area network to the physician in charge of the patient.

Increasing Utilization of US Electric Grids via Smart Technologies: Integration of Load Management, Real Time Pricing, Renewables, EVs and Smart Grid Sensors

Electric power grids throughout the world suffer from serious inefficiencies associated with under-utilization due to demand patterns, engineering design and load following approaches in use today. These grids consume much of the world’s energy and represent a large carbon footprint. From material utilization perspectives significant hardware is manufactured and installed for this infrastructure often to be used at less than 20-40% of its operational capacity for most of its lifetime. These inefficiencies lead engineers to require additional grid support and conventional generation capacity additions when renewable technologies (such as solar and wind) and electric vehicles are to be added to the utility demand/supply mix. Using actual data from the PJM [PJM 2009] the work shows that consumer load management, real time price signals, sensors and intelligent demand/supply control offer a compelling path forward to increase the efficient utilization and carbon footprint reduction of the world’s grids. Underutilization factors from many distribution companies indicate that distribution feeders are often operated at only 70-80% of their peak capacity for a few hours per year, and on average are loaded to less than 30-40% of their capability. By creating strong societal connections between consumers and energy providers technology can radically change this situation. Intelligent deployment of smart sensors, smart electric vehicles, consumer-based load management technology very high saturations of intermittent renewable energy supplies can be effectively controlled and dispatched to increase the levels of utilization of existing utility distribution, substation, transmission, and generation equipment. The strengthening of these technology, society and consumer relationships requires rapid dissemination of knowledge (real time prices, costs & benefit sharing, demand response requirements) in order to incentivize behaviors that can increase the effective use of technological equipment that represents one of the largest capital assets modern society has created.

Radio-guided surgery: advantages of a new portable γ-camera (Sentinella(®) ) for intraoperative real time imaging and detection of sentinel lymph nodes in cutaneous malignancies

The histological status of the sentinel lymph node (SLN) is one of the most relevant prognostic factors for the overall survival of patients with cutaneous malignancies, independent of tumour depth of the primary tumour.

Detecting and resolving position-dependent temperature effects in real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction

Real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) depends on precise temperature control of the sample during cycling. In the current study, we investigated how temperature variation in plate-based qPCR instruments influences qPCR results. Temperature variation was measured by amplicon melting analysis as a convenient means to assess well-to-well differences. Multiple technical replicates of several SYBR Green I-based qPCR assays allowed correlation of relative well temperature to quantification cycle. We found that inadequate template denaturation results in an inverse correlation and requires increasing the denaturation temperature, adding a DNA destabilizing agent, or pretreating with a restriction enzyme. In contrast, inadequate primer annealing results in a direct correlation and requires lowering the annealing temperature. Significant correlations were found in 18 of 25 assays. The critical nature of temperature-dependent effects was shown in a blinded study of 29 patients for the diagnosis of Prader-Willy and Angelman syndromes, where eight diagnoses were incorrect unless temperature-dependent effects were controlled. A method to detect temperature-dependent effects by pairwise comparisons of replicates in routine experiments is presented and applied. Systematic temperature errors in qPCR instruments can be recognized and their effects eliminated when high precision is required in quantitative genetic diagnostics and critical complementary DNA analyses.

Development and validation of a real-time quantitative PCR assay for rapid identification of Bacillus anthracis in environmental samples

A real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay was developed for rapid identification of Bacillus anthracis in environmental samples. These samples often harbor Bacillus cereus bacteria closely related to B. anthracis, which may hinder its specific identification by resulting in false positive signals. The assay consists of two duplex real-time PCR: the first PCR allows amplification of a sequence specific of the B. cereus group (B. anthracis, B. cereus, Bacillus thuringiensis, Bacillus weihenstephanensis, Bacillus pseudomycoides, and Bacillus mycoides) within the phosphoenolpyruvate/sugar phosphotransferase system I gene and a B. anthracis specific single nucleotide polymorphism within the adenylosuccinate synthetase gene. The second real-time PCR assay targets the lethal factor gene from virulence plasmid pXO1 and the capsule synthesis gene from virulence plasmid pXO2. Specificity of the assay is enhanced by the use of minor groove binding probes and/or locked nucleic acids probes. The assay was validated on 304 bacterial strains including 37 B. anthracis, 67 B. cereus group, 54 strains of non-cereus group Bacillus, and 146 Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria strains. The assay was performed on various environmental samples spiked with B. anthracis or B. cereus spores. The assay allowed an accurate identification of B. anthracis in environmental samples. This study provides a rapid and reliable method for improving rapid identification of B. anthracis in field operational conditions.

Real-time evaluation of diffusion of the local anesthetic solution during peribulbar block using ultrasound imaging and clinical correlates of diffusion

The aims of this prospective observational study were to assess the incidence of intraconal spread during peribulbar (extraconal) anesthesia by real-time ultrasound imaging of the retro-orbital compartment and to determine whether a complete sensory and motor block (with akinesia) of the eye is directly related to the intraconal spread.

Development and application of a real-time TaqMan((R)) qPCR assay for detection and quantification of 'Candidatus Mycoplasma haemolamae' in South American camelids

Two alpacas from a herd in southwest Switzerland died for unknown reasons. Necropsy revealed chronic weight loss and pale mucous membranes. Infection with hemotropic mycoplasmas was suspected and subsequently confirmed by molecular methods. In order to investigate the epidemiological situation in this herd, a real-time TaqMan((R)) qPCR assay for the specific detection and quantification of hemoplasma infection in South American camelids was developed. This assay was based on the 16S rRNA gene and amplified 'Candidatus Mycoplasma haemolamae' DNA, but not DNA from other hemoplasmas or non-hemotropic mycoplasma species. The lower detection limit was one copy/PCR, and the amplification efficiency was 97.4%. In 11 out of 24 clinically healthy herd mates of the two infected alpacas, 'Candidatus M. haemolamae' infection was confirmed. No correlation was found between bacterial load and clinical signs or anemia. The assay described herein enables to detect and quantify 'Candidatus M. haemolamae' and may be used in future studies to investigate the prevalence, pathogenesis and treatment follow-up of hemoplasma infections in South American camelids.