Environmental impact of geometric earthwork construction in pre-Columbian Amazonia

There is considerable controversy over whether pre-Columbian (pre-A.D. 1492) Amazonia was largely “pristine” and sparsely populated by slash-and-burn agriculturists, or instead a densely populated, domesticated landscape, heavily altered by extensive deforestation and anthropogenic burning. The discovery of hundreds of large geometric earthworks beneath intact rainforest across southern Amazonia challenges its status as a pristine landscape, and has been assumed to indicate extensive pre-Columbian deforestation by large populations. We tested these assumptions using coupled local- and regional-scale paleoecological records to reconstruct land use on an earthwork site in northeast Bolivia within the context of regional, climate-driven biome changes. This approach revealed evidence for an alternative scenario of Amazonian land use, which did not necessitate labor-intensive rainforest clearance for earthwork construction. Instead, we show that the inhabitants exploited a naturally open savanna landscape that they maintained around their settlement despite the climatically driven rainforest expansion that began ∼2,000 y ago across the region. Earthwork construction and agriculture on terra firme landscapes currently occupied by the seasonal rainforests of southern Amazonia may therefore not have necessitated large-scale deforestation using stone tools. This finding implies far less labor—and potentially lower population density—than previously supposed. Our findings demonstrate that current debates over the magnitude and nature of pre-Columbian Amazonian land use, and its impact on global biogeochemical cycling, are potentially flawed because they do not consider this land use in the context of climate-driven forest–savanna biome shifts through the mid-to-late Holocene.

Pre-Columbian land use in the ring-ditch region of the Bolivian Amazon

The nature and extent of pre-Columbian (pre-1492 AD) human impact in Amazonia is a contentious issue. The Bolivian Amazon has yielded some of the most impressive evidence for large and complex pre-Columbian societies in the Amazon basin, yet there remains relatively little data concerning the land use of these societies over time. Palaeoecology, when integrated with archaeological data, has the potential to fill these gaps in our knowledge. We present a 6,000-year record of anthropogenic burning, agriculture and vegetation change, from an oxbow lake located adjacent to a pre-Columbian ring-ditch in north-east Bolivia (13°15’44” S, 63°42’37” W). Human occupation around the lake site is inferred from pollen and phytoliths of maize (Zea mays L.) and macroscopic charcoal evidence of anthropogenic burning. First occupation around the lake was radiocarbon dated to ~2500 years BP. The persistence of maize in the record from ~1850 BP suggests that it was an important crop grown in the ringditch region in pre-Columbian times, and abundant macroscopic charcoal suggests that pre-Columbian land management entailed more extensive burning of the landscape than the slash-and-burn agriculture practised around the site today. The site was occupied continuously until near-modern times, although there is evidence for a decline in agricultural intensity or change in land use strategy, and possible population decline, from ~600-500 BP. The long and continuous occupation, which predates the establishment of rainforest in the region, suggests that pre-Columbian land use may have had a significant influence on ecosystem development at this site over the last ~2000 years.

Generalized drivers in the mammalian endangerment process

An important challenge for conservation today is to understand the endangerment process and identify any generalized patterns in how threats occur and aggregate across taxa. Here we use a global database describing main current external threats in mammals to evaluate the prevalence of distinct threatening processes, primarily of anthropogenic origin, and to identify generalized drivers of extinction and their association with vulnerability status and intrinsic species' traits. We detect several primary threat combinations that are generally associated with distinct species. In particular, large and widely distributed mammals are affected by combinations of direct exploitation and threats associated with increasing landscape modification that go from logging to intense human land-use. Meanwhile, small, narrowly distributed species are affected by intensifying levels of landscape modification but are not directly exploited. In general more vulnerable species are affected by a greater number of threats, suggesting increased extinction risk is associated with the accumulation of external threats. Overall, our findings show that endangerment in mammals is strongly associated with increasing habitat loss and degradation caused by human land-use intensification. For large and widely distributed mammals there is the additional risk of being hunted.

Seismic activity triggered by water wells in the Parana Basin, Brazil

Triggered seismicity is commonly associated with deep water reservoirs or injection wells where water is injected at high pressure into the reservoir rock. However, earth tremors related solely to the opening of groundwater wells are extremely rare. Here we present a clear case of seismicity induced by pore-pressure changes following the drilling of water wells that exploit a confined aquifer in the intracratonic Parana Basin of southeastern Brazil. Since 2004, shallow seismic activity, with magnitudes up to 2.9 and intensities V MM, has been observed near deep wells (120-200 m) that were drilled in early 2003 near the town of Bebedouro. The wells were drilled for irrigation purposes, cross a sandstone layer about 60-80 m thick and extract water from a confined aquifer in fractured zones between basalt flow layers. Seismic activity, mainly event swarms, has occurred yearly since 2004, mostly during the rainy season when the wells are not pumped. During the dry season when the wells are pumped almost continuously, the activity is very low. A seismographic network, installed in March 2005, has located more than 2000 microearthquakes. The events are less than 1 km deep (mostly within the 0.5 km thick basalt layer) and cover an area roughly 1.5 km x 5 km across. The seismicity generally starts in a small area and expands to larger distances with an equivalent hydraulic diffusivity ranging from 0.06 to 0.6 m(2)/s. Geophysical and geothermal logging of several wells in the area showed that water from the shallow sandstone aquifer enters the well at the top and usually forms waterfalls. The waterfalls flow down the sides of the wells and feed the confined, fractured aquifer in the basalt layer at the bottom. Two seismic areas are observed: the main area surrounds several wells that are pumped continuously during the dry season, and a second area near another well (about 10 km from the first area) that is not used for irrigation and not pumped regularly. The main area displays cyclic annual activity, but the second area does not. We explain the earthquake swarms as being triggered by pore pressure diffusion in the fractured basalt layer due to additional pressure from the newly connected surface aquifer. This reaches critically prestressed areas up to a few kilometers away from the wells. During periods of continuous pumping, the reduction of pore pressure in the confined aquifer stops the seismic activity. Our study suggests that this kind of activity may be more common than previously thought and implies that many other cases of small tremors associated with the drilling of water wells may have gone unnoticed.

Fragmentation drives tropical forest fragments to early successional states: A modelling study for Brazilian Atlantic forests

Land use leads to massive habitat destruction and fragmentation in tropical forests. Despite its global dimensions the effects of fragmentation on ecosystem dynamics are not well understood due to the complexity of the problem. We present a simulation analysis performed by the individual-based model FORMIND. The model was applied to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, one of the world`s biodiversity hot spots, at the Plateau of Sao Paulo. This study investigates the long-term effects of fragmentation processes on structure and dynamics of different sized remnant tropical forest fragments (1-100 ha) at community and plant functional type (PFT) level. We disentangle the interplay of single effects of different key fragmentation processes (edge mortality, increased mortality of large trees, local seed loss and external seed rain) using simulation experiments in a full factorial design. Our analysis reveals that particularly small forest fragments below 25 ha suffer substantial structural changes, biomass and biodiversity loss in the long term. At community level biomass is reduced up to 60%. Two thirds of the mid- and late-successional species groups, especially shade-tolerant (late successional climax) species groups are prone of extinction in small fragments. The shade-tolerant species groups were most strongly affected; its tree number was reduced more than 60% mainly by increased edge mortality. This process proved to be the most powerful of those investigated, explaining alone more than 80% of the changes observed for this group. External seed rain was able to compensate approximately 30% of the observed fragmentation effects for shade-tolerant species. Our results suggest that tropical forest fragments will suffer strong structural changes in the long term, leading to tree species impoverishment. They may reach a new equilibrium with a substantially reduced subset of the initial species pool, and are driven towards an earlier successional state. The natural regeneration potential of a landscape scattered with forest fragments appears to be limited, as external seed rain is not able to fully compensate for the observed fragmentation-induced changes. Our findings suggest basic recommendations for the management of fragmented tropical forest landscapes. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian nonlinear regression models with scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions: Estimation and case influence diagnostics

The purpose of this paper is to develop a Bayesian analysis for nonlinear regression models under scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions. This novel class of models provides a useful generalization of the symmetrical nonlinear regression models since the error distributions cover both skewness and heavy-tailed distributions such as the skew-t, skew-slash and the skew-contaminated normal distributions. The main advantage of these class of distributions is that they have a nice hierarchical representation that allows the implementation of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples from the joint posterior distribution. In order to examine the robust aspects of this flexible class, against outlying and influential observations, we present a Bayesian case deletion influence diagnostics based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Further, some discussions on the model selection criteria are given. The newly developed procedures are illustrated considering two simulations study, and a real data previously analyzed under normal and skew-normal nonlinear regression models. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Robust linear mixed models with skew-normal independent distributions from a Bayesian perspective

Linear mixed models were developed to handle clustered data and have been a topic of increasing interest in statistics for the past 50 years. Generally. the normality (or symmetry) of the random effects is a common assumption in linear mixed models but it may, sometimes, be unrealistic, obscuring important features of among-subjects variation. In this article, we utilize skew-normal/independent distributions as a tool for robust modeling of linear mixed models under a Bayesian paradigm. The skew-normal/independent distributions is an attractive class of asymmetric heavy-tailed distributions that includes the skew-normal distribution, skew-t, skew-slash and the skew-contaminated normal distributions as special cases, providing an appealing robust alternative to the routine use of symmetric distributions in this type of models. The methods developed are illustrated using a real data set from Framingham cholesterol study. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multivariate measurement error models based on scale mixtures of the skew-normal distribution

Scale mixtures of the skew-normal (SMSN) distribution is a class of asymmetric thick-tailed distributions that includes the skew-normal (SN) distribution as a special case. The main advantage of these classes of distributions is that they are easy to simulate and have a nice hierarchical representation facilitating easy implementation of the expectation-maximization algorithm for the maximum-likelihood estimation. In this paper, we assume an SMSN distribution for the unobserved value of the covariates and a symmetric scale mixtures of the normal distribution for the error term of the model. This provides a robust alternative to parameter estimation in multivariate measurement error models. Specific distributions examined include univariate and multivariate versions of the SN, skew-t, skew-slash and skew-contaminated normal distributions. The results and methods are applied to a real data set.

An extension of the generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distribution

In this paper we present an extension of the generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distribution family introduced in [Diaz-Garcia, J.A., Leiva-Sanchez, V., 2005. A new family of life distributions based on the contoured elliptically distributions. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 128 (2), 445-457] with a view to make it even more flexible in terms of its kurtosis coefficient. Properties involving moments and asymmetry and kurtosis indexes are studied for some special members of this family such as the slash Birnbaum-Saunders and slash-t Birnbaum-Saunders. Simulation studies for some particular cases and a real data analysis are also reported, illustrating the usefulness of the extension considered. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A robust Bayesian approach to null intercept measurement error model with application to dental data

Measurement error models often arise in epidemiological and clinical research. Usually, in this set up it is assumed that the latent variable has a normal distribution. However, the normality assumption may not be always correct. Skew-normal/independent distribution is a class of asymmetric thick-tailed distributions which includes the Skew-normal distribution as a special case. In this paper, we explore the use of skew-normal/independent distribution as a robust alternative to null intercept measurement error model under a Bayesian paradigm. We assume that the random errors and the unobserved value of the covariate (latent variable) follows jointly a skew-normal/independent distribution, providing an appealing robust alternative to the routine use of symmetric normal distribution in this type of model. Specific distributions examined include univariate and multivariate versions of the skew-normal distribution, the skew-t distributions, the skew-slash distributions and the skew contaminated normal distributions. The methods developed is illustrated using a real data set from a dental clinical trial. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Könsroller i Film : En kvalitativ analys av hur unga tjejer skildras i tre moderna svenska ungdomsfilmer

Min utgångspunkt i denna uppsats var könsroller i film. Utifrån detta skapade jag mitt syfte som var att undersöka hur valda kvinnliga karaktärer i huvudrollen i tre svenska ungdomsfilmer skildrades, samt analysera huruvida skildringarna av karaktärerna bevarar eller bryter mot etablerade könsroller utifrån aktuell forskning. ¨Mina frågeställningar var:•Vilka utmärkande könsrollsmönster går att utröna i de valda karaktärernas agerande/handlande gentemot andra?•Vilken reaktion bemöts de valda karaktärerna med, utifrån detta agerade/handlande?•Vilka budskap landar filmen i, när det gäller huvudrollsinnehavarnas inordning eller revoltering utifrån de etablerade könsroller?De tre karaktärerna som jag valde att analysera var Sofie i Hipp Hipp Hora, Emma i Fjorton Suger och Ida i Sandor /slash/ Ida. Jag skapade ett analysverktyg bestående utav några nyckelkategorier kring könsroller. Utifrån dessa kategorier kunde jag analysera hur karaktärernas agerande gentemot andra bemöttes, och om karaktärerna bröt eller bevarade etablerade könsrollerna utifrån aktuell forskning. Mitt resultat visar karaktärerna vågar bryta emot de etablerade könsrollerna. Filmerna förmedlar även en bild utav unga smala vackra blonda tjejer som är tuffa och vågar gå sina egna vägar trots att det inte alltid är den lätta eller den rätta vägen.

En analys av testprocesser med TMap som testmetod

Today there are many system development projects that break both budget and time plan. Often this depends on defects in the information systems that could have been prevented. The cost of test can in some cases be as high as 50 % of the projects total cost and it's at the same time an important part of development. Test as such has moved its focus from the software it self and its faults to a wider perspective on whole infrastructures of information systems where assure a good quality is important. Sogeti in the Netherlands have developed a test method called TMap (Test Management approach) that can be used for structured testing of information systems. TMap haven't been used as much as desired in the office in Borlänge. Because Microsoft is releasing a new version of their platform Visual Studio Team System (VSTS 2010) some colleges at Sogeti in the Netherlands are about to develop a template that can support the use of TMap in VSTS 2010. When we write this the template is still in development. The goal for Sogeti was to find out the differences between the test functionality in VSTS 2008 and 2010. By using the purpose with this essay, which was to analyze the test process in VSTS 2008 with TMap against the test process in VSTS 2010 together with the template we got much help to achieve the goal. The analysis was done with four different aspects: The TPI and TMMi models, problem and strength analyses and a few question formulations. The TPI and TMMi models where used to analyses and evaluate the test process. The analysis showed that there were differences between the both test processes. VSTS 2010 together with the template gave a better support to use TMap and perform test. In VSTS 2010 the test tool Camano is connected to TFS and the tool is also to make the execution and logging of tests easier. This leads to a test process that is easier to handle and has a better support for TMap.

Långa toppar - metod för uttag av skogsbränsle i slutavverkningar : Slutrapport (STEM-projekt 21937-1)

SammanfattningHögskolan Dalarna har i samarbete med Skogsägarna Mellanskog, Naturbränsle i Mellan¬sverige AB och GDE-Net genomfört studier på en ny metod för uttag av skogsbränsle från slutavverkningar. Metoden går ut på att timmer tas ut som enda rundvirkessortiment. Resten av trädet, samt klenare träd som inte håller timmerdimension, tas ut som ett bränslesortiment. Metoden har jämförts med en konventionell slutavverkning med uttag av timmer, massaved och GROT-flis.Enligt genomförda försök skulle en avverkning enligt den nya metoden (långa toppar) ge ett högre drivningsnetto och drygt dubbelt så mycket bränsleflis som en konventionell avverk¬ning. En anledning till det högre drivningsnettot är att kostnaden för flisning blir lägre än vid flisning av GROT och att flisen betalas bättre än GROT-flis. Resultaten är beroende av de faktiska beståndsförutsättningarna och gällande prisrelationer mellan massaved och bränsle¬flis.Faktorer som har en positiv inverkan på drivningsnettot vid uttag av ”långa toppar” är t.ex. stora uttagsvolymer och korta terrängtransportavstånd samt bestånd med en hög andel virke av låg kvalitet eller udda sortiment som betalas dåligt på rundvirkesmarknaden.SummaryIn Sweden forest energy from final felling is traditionally harvested as logging residues after harvesting of timber (saw logs) and pulpwood, but depending on the market situation other methods with higher yield of forest energy might be of interest. Dalarna University has study a new method called “Undelimbed long tops” where only saw timber was taken out as an industrial assortment. The rest of the trees and smaller trees that don’t hold timber dimensions was left intact on the clear-felled area and been chipped later on. The study was done in different stands with some different conditions. The results have been compared with the traditional method for final felling. The surplus (forest owners net income) was higher in almost all stands when the method with “undelimbed long tops” was used, compared to the traditional method for taking out forest energy, and the volume of chips was more than doubled. A reason for the higher income from long tops is that the costs for chipping is lower and the prize of chips is higher compared to chips from logging residues. Other reason is that forest owners will not be paid for wasted pulpwood, but will be fully paid for the chips from such pulpwood. Factors that will have a positive influence on the ULT-method are for example large logging volumes and short distance between the logging area and the landing, different kinds of price reductions on pulpwood and large volumes of rotten wood or low paid industrial assortments.

Fanfiction : la anonimicidad, el texto y el armario

This essay looks at slash, a genre within fanfiction, from the perspective of Sedgwick’s theory of the closet, which reflects on the concealing mechanisms associated with homosexuality. While the real author stays in the closet, disguised behind a pseudonym, slash texts present homosexual themes in a very explicit way, often relying on humor or subversive elements. Between these two spheres, the real author and the text, we can find what we call the author’s voice, conscious about the existing homophobic structures, a voice that uses different strategies to shield itself against them. Internet, with the possibility to stay anonymous, serves as a social closet where the masked authors create texts that subvert heteronormativity.

Validação experimental de sistemas de arquivos baseados em journaling para o sistema operacional Linux

Alta disponibilidade (muitas vezes referenciada como HA, de High Availability) é uma característica de sistemas computacionais que são projetados para evitar ao máximo as interrupções, planejadas ou não, na prestação de serviços. Em alta disponibilidade, o ideal é haver poucas falhas e, mesmo quando estas acontecerem, que o seu tempo médio de reparo (ou MTTR, de Mean Time To Repair) seja tão pequeno quanto possível. Sistemas operacionais têm um papel importante em alta disponibilidade, sendo preferível o uso daqueles que possuam sistemas de arquivos seguros e relativamente independentes de ações por agentes humanos para a recuperação. Uma das abordagens para auxiliar a obter-se uma alta disponibilidade em sistemas de arquivos é a do tipo journaling, ou meta-data logging. Existe uma série de sistemas de arquivos para o sistema operacional Linux baseando-se nela, tais como ext3, JFS, ReiserFS e XFS. Este trabalho tem por objetivo propor uma metodologia de validação experimental para avaliar a eficiência do mecanismo para recuperação de sistemas de arquivos baseados em journaling, na ocorrência de falhas. Para isso, a técnica de validação empregada é a da injeção de falhas e o sistema sob teste é uma implementação do XFS. Foram utilizados os recursos de depuração do sistema operacional Linux (que permitem a utilização de métodos para interceptação e manipulação de chamadas de sistema) para a implementação de um injetor de falhas específico para sistemas de arquivos baseados em journaling, o qual foi chamado de FIJI (Fault Injector for Journaling fIlesystems). Manipular os parâmetros de chamadas de sistema (ou system calls) através do FIJI equivale a alterar as requisições feitas ao sistema operacional. A eficiência do mecanismo de journaling é medida injetando-se falhas e medindose o MTTR e a cobertura de falhas. Basicamente, o que procura-se fazer através do injetor de falhas FIJI é ignorar os logs do journaling e manipular uma quantidade de informações diferente daquela que foi solicitada originalmente.