辽宁中部城市群景观动态模拟与预测研究

辽宁中部城市群是我国城镇最密集的地区之一，经过几十年快速的城市发展和工业建设，造成了严重环境污染和生态破坏，区域的景观发生了巨大的变化。本文研究辽宁中部城市群城市空间增长和景观动态，为辽宁中部城市群的科学规划和管理提供决策支持，对辽宁省生态环境与社会经济的可持续发展具有重要的意义。 本文利用3S技术、转移矩阵和景观格局指数方法对辽宁中部城市群1988-- 2004 年的城市增长和景观变化进行了综合分析，采用历史数据对城市增长和景观变化模型SLEUTH进行校正，并对历史时期的城市增长和景观变化进行模拟重建；利用ROC曲线统计、Kappa指数系列和景观格局指数对SLEUTH的模拟结果进行精度评价；在五种不同的预案下对辽宁中部城市群未来（2005-2045年）城市增长和景观动态进行模拟预测。本文得到如下结论： 1. 1988-2004年间，辽宁中部城市群的城市面积持续增长，扩展强度不断增强，1997-2000年的城市扩展强度最大，增长速度最快。城市空间格局的变化表现出阶段性的特征，1988-1997年城市面积的增长速度较慢，结构紧凑，以边缘增长和填充增长为主；1997-2004年城市面积增长较快，城市向外蔓延，城市斑块形状变得复杂，以开发区的飞地式增长和扩散增长为主。 2. 1997-2004年间，辽宁中部城市群的景观变化明显，农村居民点的面积增长最大，其次为城市；林草地的面积减少最大，其次为耕地。各景观类型中城市的增长速度最快，林草地减少的速度最快。辽宁中部城市群的城市增长和景观变化主要集中在中部的城镇密集带。城镇密集带将是未来城市群规划和管理的关键区域。辽宁中部城市群景观格局受人类活动影响增强，景观破碎化程度加大。景观中林草地和耕地的优势地位有所减弱，破碎化程度增加，斑块形状日益复杂；在城镇密集带内，耕地面积流失较大，耕地占景观面积比例减少较快，破碎化程度较大。随着城市化进程的加快和人类活动的增强，辽宁中部城市群表现出复杂的格局变化特征。 3. 1988-2004年，辽宁中部城市群城市增长的主要驱动力是社会经济发展和政策因素，其中人口和经济的高速增长、国家及区域政策导致的城市开发、生 态环境保护政策、城市规划和基础设施建设等因素是城市群城市空间快速增长的主要因素。辽宁中部城市群的景观变化受到自然和人类两大类驱动因素的共同作用。气候、水文、矿产资源等自然驱动力对城市群景观变化的影响也较大。人口增长、城市和村镇聚落增长、农业开发、经济发展、政治政策和工业化等主要的人类驱动力对辽宁中部城市群景观变化影响较大。 4. 利用ROC 曲线统计、Kappa 指数系列和景观格局指数从城市增长总体预测能力、增长数量和空间格局上对SLEUTH 模型的城市增长模拟结果进行精度评估；利用Kappa 指数系列和景观格局指数对SLEUTH的景观变化预测结果进行评价。总体上讲，SLEUTH模型对辽宁中部城市群城市增长和景观动态模拟预测具有良好的可信精度，较好地模拟了1988-2004年的城市增长和1997-2004年城市群的景观动态。 5. SLEUTH 模型效力的主要影响因素包括模型结构、城市发展特征、模型应用的时空尺度和模型输入数据的获取与误差传递等。通过修改模型参数设置、开展模型敏感性与不确定性分析等可以提高SLEUTH 模型的模拟效力，并提出城市分类标准对SLEUTH准确性的影响，通过对部分研究区的检验研究，证明城市分类标准对SLEUTH模型的校正和模拟预测结果影响较大。 6. 基于SLEUTH模型，从城市群城市空间增长、景观要素和社会经济政策等方面设计了五种城市群发展和景观变化预案，即历史趋势预案（Historical Trend, HT），区域开发政策和城市规划预案（Regional development policy and Urban planning policy, RU），生态可持续发展预案（Ecological Sustainable development，ES），两个密集增长预案（Compact Growth，CG1和CG2）等。通过预案分析，考察不同的条件下未来城市群城市空间增长和景观动态特征，研究认为密集的城市增长预案是未来辽宁中部城市群发展的较好预案，为辽宁中部城市群的规划、管理和可持续发展提供决策支持。

中国近海和西北太平洋温跃层时空变化分析、模拟及预报

温度跃层是反映海洋温度场的重要物理特性指标，对水下通讯、潜艇活动及渔业养殖、捕捞等有重要影响。本文利用中国科学院海洋研究所“中国海洋科学数据库”在中国近海及西北太平洋（110ºE-140ºE,10ºN-40ºN）的多年历史资料（1930-2002年，510143站次），基于一种改进的温跃层判定方法，分析了该海域温跃层特征量的时空分布状况。同时利用Princeton Ocean Model(POM)，对中国近海，特别是东南沿海的水文结构进行了模拟，研究了海洋水文环境对逆温跃层的影响。最后根据历史海温观测资料，利用EOF分解统计技术，提出了一种适于我国近海及毗邻海域，基于现场有限层实测海温数据，快速重构海洋水温垂直结构的统计预报方法，以达到对现场温跃层的快速估计。 历史资料分析结果表明，受太阳辐射和风应力的影响，20°N以北研究海域，温跃层季节变化明显，夏季温跃层最浅、最强，冬季相反，温跃层厚度的相位明显滞后于其他变量，其在春季最薄、秋季最厚。12月份到翌年3月份，渤、黄及东海西岸，呈无跃层结构，西北太平洋部分海域从1月到3月份，也基本无跃层结构。在黄海西和东岸以及台湾海峡附近的浅滩海域，由于风力搅拌和潮混合作用，温跃层出现概率常年较低。夏季，海水层化现象在近海陆架海域得到了加强，陆架海域温跃层强度季节性变化幅度(0.31°C/m)明显大于深水区(约0.05°C/m)，而前者温跃层深度和厚度的季节性变化幅度小于后者。20°N以南研究海域，温跃层季节变化不明显。逆温跃层主要出现在冬、春季节（10月-翌年5月）。受长江冲淡水和台湾暖流的影响，东南沿海区域逆温跃层持续时间最长，出现概率最大，而在山东半岛北及东沿岸、朝鲜半岛西及北岸，逆温跃层消长过程似乎和黄海暖流有关。多温跃层结构常年出现于北赤道流及对马暖流区。在黑潮入侵黄、东、南海的区域，多温跃层呈现明显不同的季节变化。在黄海中部，春季多温跃层发生概率高于夏季和秋季，在东海西部，多跃层主要出现在夏季，在南海北部，冬季和春季多温跃层发生概率大于夏季和秋季。这些变化可能主要受海表面温度变化和风力驱动的表层流的影响。 利用Princeton Ocean Model(POM)，对中国东南沿海逆温跃层结构进行了模拟，模拟结果显示，长江冲淡水的季节性变化以及夏季转向与实际结果符合较好，基本再现了渤、黄、东海海域主要的环流、温盐场以及逆温跃层的分布特征和季节变化。通过数值实验发现，若无长江、黄河淡水输入，则在整个研究海域基本无逆温跃层出现，因此陆源淡水可能是河口附近逆温跃层出现的基本因素之一。长江以及暖流（黑潮和台湾暖流）流量的增加，均可在不同程度上使逆温跃层出现概率及强度、深度和厚度增加，且暖流的影响更加明显。长江对东南沿海逆温跃层的出现，特别是秋季到冬季初期，有明显的影响，使长江口海域逆温跃层位置偏向东南。暖流对于中国东南沿海的逆温跃层结构，特别是初春时期，有较大影响，使长江口海域的逆温跃层位置向东北偏移。 通过对温跃层长期变化分析得出，黄海冷水团区域，夏季温跃层强度存在3.8年左右的年际变化及18.9年左右的年代际变化，此变化可能主要表现为对当年夏季和前冬东亚地区大气气温的热力响应。东海冷涡区域，夏季温跃层强度存在3.7年的年际变化，在El Nino年为正的强度异常，其可能主要受局地气旋式大气环流变异所影响。谱分析同时表明，该海域夏季温跃层强度还存在33.2年的年代际变化，上世纪70年代中期，温跃层强度由弱转强，而此变化可能与黑潮流量的年代际变化有关。 海洋水温垂直结构的统计预报结果显示，EOF分解的前四个主分量即能够解释原空间点温度距平总方差的95%以上，以海洋表层附近观测资料求解的特征系数推断温度垂直结构分布的结果最稳定。利用东海陆架区、南海深水区和台湾周边海域三个不同区域的实测CTD样本廓线资料，对重构模型的检验结果表明，重构与实测廓线的相关程度超过95%的置信水平。三个区重构与实测温度廓线值的平均误差分别为0.69℃，0.52℃，1.18℃，平均重构廓线误差小于平均气候偏差，统计模式可以很好的估算温度廓线垂直结构。东海陆架海区温度垂直重构廓线与CTD观测廓线获得的温跃层结果对比表明，重构温跃层上界、下界深度和强度的平均绝对误差分别为1.51m、1.36m和0.17℃/m，它们的平均相对误差分别为24.7%、8.9%和22.6%，虽然温跃层深度和强度的平均相对误差较大，但其绝对误差量值较小。而在南海海区，模型重构温跃层上界、下界和强度的平均绝对预报误差分别为4.1m、27.7m和0.007℃/m，它们的平均相对误差分别为16.1%、16.8%和9.5%，重构温跃层各特征值的平均相对误差都在20%以内。虽然南海区温跃层下界深度平均绝对预报误差较大，但相对于温跃层下界深度的空间尺度变化而言（平均温跃层下界深度为168m），平均相对误差仅为16.8%。因此说模型重构的温度廓线可以达到对我国陆架海域、深水区温跃层的较好估算。 基于对历史水文温度廓线观测资料的分析及自主温跃层统计预报模型，研制了实时可利用微机简单、快捷地进行温跃层估算及查询的可视化系统，这是迄今进行大范围海域温跃层统计与实时预报研究的较系统成果。

空间关系类别的形成与计算

Spatial categorization and computation were studied systematically and sequentially in the dissertation, in which, category learning paradigm was transferred to spatial domain. Four parts were developed in our study, in which, the former two parts investigated the mechanism of spatial categorization, and the latter two parts explored two applied issues. Spatial category formation was investigated by two aspects in distance and angle respectively in research one. The results showed that subjects can make accurate judgment and rating for corresponding spatial categorical prototypes and boundaries. In the second research, the formation of spatial relationship categorization was examined through two factors of number of categories and different spatial configurations. The results were repeated in this part, and also, different influences of reference of frame were found in the process of spatial categorization. In the third research, the influences of spatial categorization on spatial localization were found, that in subject could make different location judgment with new acquired spatial categories. Spatial position distribution has no effect on spatial localization on the other hand. The result that reference objects have significant influences on applicability of spatial relationship was found in research four. Our Bayesian hierarchical model could be applied in simulation and prediction of perception of “above” spatial relationship. Theoretical significance and applied importance were discussed in detail.

Modelling the Stoichiometric Regulation of C-Rich Toxins in Marine Dinoflagellates

Toxin production in marine microalgae was previously shown to be tightly coupled with cellular stoichiometry. The highest values of cellular toxin are in fact mainly associated with a high carbon to nutrient cellular ratio. In particular, the cellular accumulation of C-rich toxins (i.e., with C:N > 6.6) can be stimulated by both N and P deficiency. Dinoflagellates are the main producers of C-rich toxins and may represent a serious threat for human health and the marine ecosystem. As such, the development of a numerical model able to predict how toxin production is stimulated by nutrient supply/deficiency is of primary utility for both scientific and management purposes. In this work we have developed a mechanistic model describing the stoichiometric regulation of C-rich toxins in marine dinoflagellates. To this purpose, a new formulation describing toxin production and fate was embedded in the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM), here simplified to describe a monospecific batch culture. Toxin production was assumed to be composed by two distinct additive terms; the first is a constant fraction of algal production and is assumed to take place at any physiological conditions. The second term is assumed to be dependent on algal biomass and to be stimulated by internal nutrient deficiency. By using these assumptions, the model reproduced the concentrations and temporal evolution of toxins observed in cultures of Ostreopsis cf. ovata, a benthic/epiphytic dinoflagellate producing C-rich toxins named ovatoxins. The analysis of simulations and their comparison with experimental data provided a conceptual model linking toxin production and nutritional status in this species. The model was also qualitatively validated by using independent literature data, and the results indicate that our formulation can be also used to simulate toxin dynamics in other dinoflagellates. Our model represents an important step towards the simulation and prediction of marine algal toxicity.

Modeling of transfer kinetics at the serum-cerebrospinal fluid barrier in rabbits with experimental meningitis: application to grepafloxacin

The goals of the present study were to model the population kinetics of in vivo influx and efflux processes of grepafloxacin at the serum-cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) barrier and to propose a simulation-based approach to optimize the design of dose-finding trials in the meningitis rabbit model. Twenty-nine rabbits with pneumococcal meningitis receiving grepafloxacin at 15 mg/kg of body weight (intravenous administration at 0 h), 30 mg/kg (at 0 h), or 50 mg/kg twice (at 0 and 4 h) were studied. A three-compartment population pharmacokinetic model was fit to the data with the program NONMEM (Nonlinear Mixed Effects Modeling). Passive diffusion clearance (CL(diff)) and active efflux clearance (CL(active)) are transfer kinetic modeling parameters. Influx clearance is assumed to be equal to CL(diff), and efflux clearance is the sum of CL(diff), CL(active), and bulk flow clearance (CL(bulk)). The average influx clearance for the population was 0.0055 ml/min (interindividual variability, 17%). Passive diffusion clearance was greater in rabbits receiving grepafloxacin at 15 mg/kg than in those treated with higher doses (0.0088 versus 0.0034 ml/min). Assuming a CL(bulk) of 0.01 ml/min, CL(active) was estimated to be 0.017 ml/min (11%), and clearance by total efflux was estimated to be 0.032 ml/min. The population kinetic model allows not only to quantify in vivo efflux and influx mechanisms at the serum-CSF barrier but also to analyze the effects of different dose regimens on transfer kinetic parameters in the rabbit meningitis model. The modeling-based approach also provides a tool for the simulation and prediction of various outcomes in which researchers might be interested, which is of great potential in designing dose-finding trials.

Numerical analysis of mixe-mode fracture of brickwork masonry with embedded discontinuity elements

One of the common pathologies of brickwork masonry structural elements and walls is the cracking associated with the differential settlements and/or excessive deflections of the slabs along the life of the structure. The scarce capacity of the masonry in order to accompany the structural elements that surround it, such as floors, beams or foundations, in their movements makes the brickwork masonry to be an element that frequently presents this kind of problem. This problem is a fracture problem, where the wall is cracked under mixed mode fracture: tensile and shear stresses combination, under static loading. Consequently, it is necessary to advance in the simulation and prediction of brickwork masonry mechanical behaviour under tensile and shear loading. The quasi-brittle behaviour of the brickwork masonry can be studied using the cohesive crack model whose application to other quasibrittle materials like concrete has traditionally provided very satisfactory results.

Estudio numérico y experimental del efecto de tamaño en modo mixto de los paneles de yeso laminado y lana de roca

Los paneles sándwich de yeso laminado y lana de roca presentan una abundante patología de fisuración debida a flechas excesivas de forjados. Existe, por tanto, la necesidad de avanzar en la simulación y predicción de comportamiento bajo solicitaciones de tracción y cortante de ese tipo de paneles, a pesar de que en las aplicaciones habituales no tienen responsabilidad estructural. El comportamiento de este material puede ser considerado cuasi-frágil, y en base a ello en este trabajo ha sido estudiado haciendo uso de modelos de fisura cohesiva, cuya aplicación a otros materiales cuasifrágiles, como el hormigón, ha aportado resultados muy satisfactorios. En esta comunicación se presenta el trabajo realizado para estudiar el efecto del tamaño del elemento de yeso laminado y lana de roca en su comportamiento mecánico-resistente. Para ello se diseñó una campaña de ensayos en modo mixto sobre probetas de diferente tamaño. Se han realizado ensayos de flexión en tres puntos en modo mixto de unas probetas entalladas, geométricamente similares y de diferente tamaño, obteniéndose las curvas carga-desplazamiento y cargaabertura de la boca de la entalla. Para simular numéricamente el comportamiento en fractura del panel en modo mixto se ha utilizado un modelo de elementos finitos con fisura embebida basado en la fisura cohesiva en el que se introducen como entrada los parámetros obtenidos a partir de la experimentación de trabajos anteriores, obteniéndose un buen ajuste. En función de estos resultados se analiza el efecto del tamaño en los paneles. Sandwich panels of laminated gypsum and rockwool have an abundant pathology of cracking due to excessive slabs deflection. Therefore, it is necessary to progress in the simulation and prediction of behaviour under tensile and shear load of such panels, although in typical applications have no structural responsability. The behaviour of this material may be considered quasi-brittle and, based on this idea, in this work has been studied using a cohesive crack model that has been applied to other quasi-brittle materials, such as concrete, and has provided very satisfactory results. This communication presents the work carried out to study the size effect of the specimen of plasterboard and rockwool in its mechanical and resistant behaviour. The authors designed an experimental campaign under mixed mode composed by testing specimens of different sizes. Assymetrical three-point bending tests have been performed on notched specimens, geometrically similar and of different size, to obtain load-displacement and load-crack moutn opening displacement curves. To numerically simulate the mixed-mode fracture behaviour of the panels we have used a finite element model with embedded crack, based on the cohesive crack model, using as input the experimental parameters obtained in previous work, obtaining a good adjustment. Based on these results we analyze the size effect of the panels

Estudio numérico y experimental del efecto de tamaño en modo mixto de los paneles de yeso laminado y lana de roca

Los paneles sándwich de yeso laminado y lana de roca presentan una abundante patología de fisuración debida a flechas excesivas de forjados. Existe, por tanto, la necesidad de avanzar en la simulación y predicción de comportamiento bajo solicitaciones de tracción y cortante de ese tipo de paneles, a pesar de que en las aplicaciones habituales no tienen responsabilidad estructural. El comportamiento de este material puede ser considerado cuasi-frágil, y en base a ello en este trabajo ha sido estudiado haciendo uso de modelos de fisura cohesiva, cuya aplicación a otros materiales cuasifrágiles, como el hormigón, ha aportado resultados muy satisfactorios. En esta comunicación se presenta el trabajo realizado para estudiar el efecto del tamaño del elemento de yeso laminado y lana de roca en su comportamiento mecánico-resistente. Para ello se diseñó una campaña de ensayos en modo mixto sobre probetas de diferente tamaño. Se han realizado ensayos de flexión en tres puntos en modo mixto de unas probetas entalladas, geométricamente similares y de diferente tamaño, obteniéndose las curvas carga-desplazamiento y cargaabertura de la boca de la entalla. Para simular numéricamente el comportamiento en fractura del panel en modo mixto se ha utilizado un modelo de elementos finitos con fisura embebida basado en la fisura cohesiva en el que se introducen como entrada los parámetros obtenidos a partir de la experimentación de trabajos anteriores, obteniéndose un buen ajuste. En función de estos resultados se analiza el efecto del tamaño en los paneles. Sandwich panels of laminated gypsum and rockwool have an abundant pathology of cracking due to excessive slabs deflection. Therefore, it is necessary to progress in the simulation and prediction of behaviour under tensile and shear load of such panels, although in typical applications have no structural responsability. The behaviour of this material may be considered quasi-brittle and, based on this idea, in this work has been studied using a cohesive crack model that has been applied to other quasi-brittle materials, such as concrete, and has provided very satisfactory results. This communication presents the work carried out to study the size effect of the specimen of plasterboard and rockwool in its mechanical and resistant behaviour. The authors designed an experimental campaign under mixed mode composed by testing specimens of different sizes. Assymetrical three-point bending tests have been performed on notched specimens, geometrically similar and of different size, to obtain load-displacement and load-crack moutn opening displacement curves. To numerically simulate the mixed-mode fracture behaviour of the panels we have used a finite element model with embedded crack, based on the cohesive crack model, using as input the experimental parameters obtained in previous work, obtaining a good adjustment. Based on these results we analyze the size effect of the panels.

Estudio Acústico del Teatro Tomás y Valiente de Fuenlabrada

El objetivo de este Proyecto Fin de Carrera es realizar el estudio de las características acústicas del Teatro Tomás y Valiente de Fuenlabrada mediante medidas y con el apoyo de los resultados obtenidos mediante la simulación del campo sonoro. El recinto está destinado principalmente a representaciones teatrales, empleándose también como sala polivalente, de forma que se analizará su comportamiento acústico e idoneidad ante la variedad de usos a los que se destina. Para ello, se realizan medidas experimentales in situ de todos los parámetros representativos de un recinto acústico y la predicción de los mismos mediante la simulación de la sala a través del software de simulación acústica EASE, de forma que las características acústicas obtenidas mediante ambos procesos sean comparadas proponiéndose mejoras en el entorno para cumplimiento de parámetros acústicos óptimos exigibles a la sala. En primer lugar se exponen los principales conceptos teóricos a tener en cuenta en el ámbito de la acústica, detallando las diferentes teorías de estudio, los principios básicos de la psicoacústica. Además, se definen los criterios utilizados en el diseño de recintos acústicos y parámetros que definan la calidad según el uso al que se destine en función del estudio de la utilización habitual de la sala y valores óptimos de los parámetros acústicos correspondientes a salas de tamaño y uso similar. A continuación, se describe la metodología aplicada para la realización de las medidas in situ obteniendo resultados de los parámetros acústicos representativos del recinto para el análisis de sus características acústicas y posterior comparación con la predicción de los mismos mediante la simulación del modelo informático. También se muestra el proceso que se ha seguido para el diseño del modelo acústico a partir de los planos del teatro y medidas realizadas en el recinto, para la simulación de parámetros y características acústicas. Finalmente se exponen las conclusiones extraídas tras el estudio realizado y la propuesta de mejoras en el entorno para cumplimiento de parámetros acústicos óptimos que se puedan exigir a esta sala, incluyendo un presupuesto que muestre la viabilidad económica del proyecto. ABSTRACT. The goal of this final project, is to perform an acoustic study and simulation of the Tomás y Valiente theatre in Fuenlabrada. These premises are mainly used for stage plays, but also as a multipurpose space, therefore its acustic behaviour and suitability for the expected uses will be analyzed. To accomplish this task, experimental measures for all the representative parameters for an acoustic hall, will be taken on site. The prediction for those measurements will be simulated through EASE software, so the acoustic characteristics obtained using both methods will be compared, and improvements will be proposed in order to achieve the best acoustic parameters, the hall can have. First at all, the theoretical concepts definition involves exposing the main concepts to consider in the acoustics field, detailing the basic principles of the psychoacoustic. On top of the criteria used in the design of acoustic enclosures and parameters defining the quality according to the use the enclosure is intended for. Research on the most common usage for the space, and optimal values, comparing it with similar rooms in size and use. Experimental measures are made of the acoustic parameters representative of the enclosure for the analysis of its acoustic characteristics and its later comparison with the prediction of the parameters through informatics model simulation. Also the process which has been followed for the design of acoustic model of the theater are taken from on site measurements, experimental representative measures and acoustic parameters, for the acoustic characteristics analysis and post comparison with the software model simulation and prediction. Acoustic design of the theater taking as a base the building blueprints, and manual measures, for the parameters and acoustic characteristics simulation. Finally, the conclusions extracted after the performed research are shown and the propose of improvements in the environment for fulfillment of acoustic optimal parameters which can be required to this room, including a quote with shows the economical viability of the project.

T-cell epitope prediction and immune complex simulation using molecular dynamics:state of the art and persisting challenges

Atomistic Molecular Dynamics provides powerful and flexible tools for the prediction and analysis of molecular and macromolecular systems. Specifically, it provides a means by which we can measure theoretically that which cannot be measured experimentally: the dynamic time-evolution of complex systems comprising atoms and molecules. It is particularly suitable for the simulation and analysis of the otherwise inaccessible details of MHC-peptide interaction and, on a larger scale, the simulation of the immune synapse. Progress has been relatively tentative yet the emergence of truly high-performance computing and the development of coarse-grained simulation now offers us the hope of accurately predicting thermodynamic parameters and of simulating not merely a handful of proteins but larger, longer simulations comprising thousands of protein molecules and the cellular scale structures they form. We exemplify this within the context of immunoinformatics.

Integration of a road traffic noise model (ASJ) and traffic simulation (AVENUE) for a built-up area

A road traffic noise prediction model (ASJ MODEL-1998) has been integrated with a road traffic simulator (AVENUE) to produce the Dynamic areawide Road traffic NoisE simulator-DRONE. This traffic-noise-GIS based integrated tool is upgraded to predict noise levels in built-up areas. The integration of traffic simulation with a noise model provides dynamic access to traffic flow characteristics and hence automated and detailed predictions of traffic noise. The prediction is not only on the spatial scale but also on temporal scale. The linkage with GIS gives a visual representation to noise pollution in the form of dynamic areawide traffic noise contour maps. The application of DRONE on a real world built-up area is also presented.

Benefits and issues of urban network travel time prediction

This paper presents the benefits and issues related to travel time prediction on urban network. Travel time information quantifies congestion and is perhaps the most important network performance measure. Travel time prediction has been an active area of research for the last five decades. The activities related to ITS have increased the attention of researchers for better and accurate real-time prediction of travel time. Majority of the literature on travel time prediction is applicable to freeways where, under non-incident conditions, traffic flow is not affected by external factors such as traffic control signals and opposing traffic flows. On urban environment the problem is more complicated due to conflicting areas (intersections), mid-link sources and sinks etc. and needs to be addressed.

Integration of micro- and macroscopic models for pedestrian evacuation simulation

Simulation of pedestrian evacuations of smart buildings in emergency is a powerful tool for building analysis, dynamic evacuation planning and real-time response to the evolving state of evacuations. Macroscopic pedestrian models are low-complexity models that are and well suited to algorithmic analysis and planning, but are quite abstract. Microscopic simulation models allow for a high level of simulation detail but can be computationally intensive. By combining micro- and macro- models we can use each to overcome the shortcomings of the other and enable new capability and applications for pedestrian evacuation simulation that would not be possible with either alone. We develop the EvacSim multi-agent pedestrian simulator and procedurally generate macroscopic flow graph models of building space, integrating micro- and macroscopic approaches to simulation of the same emergency space. By “coupling” flow graph parameters to microscopic simulation results, the graph model captures some of the higher detail and fidelity of the complex microscopic simulation model. The coupled flow graph is used for analysis and prediction of the movement of pedestrians in the microscopic simulation, and investigate the performance of dynamic evacuation planning in simulated emergencies using a variety of strategies for allocation of macroscopic evacuation routes to microscopic pedestrian agents. The predictive capability of the coupled flow graph is exploited for the decomposition of microscopic simulation space into multiple future states in a scalable manner. By simulating multiple future states of the emergency in short time frames, this enables sensing strategy based on simulation scenario pattern matching which we show to achieve fast scenario matching, enabling rich, real-time feedback in emergencies in buildings with meagre sensing capabilities.

Strength prediction of single- and double-lap joints by standard and extended finite element modelling

The structural integrity of multi-component structures is usually determined by the strength and durability of their unions. Adhesive bonding is often chosen over welding, riveting and bolting, due to the reduction of stress concentrations, reduced weight penalty and easy manufacturing, amongst other issues. In the past decades, the Finite Element Method (FEM) has been used for the simulation and strength prediction of bonded structures, by strength of materials or fracture mechanics-based criteria. Cohesive-zone models (CZMs) have already proved to be an effective tool in modelling damage growth, surpassing a few limitations of the aforementioned techniques. Despite this fact, they still suffer from the restriction of damage growth only at predefined growth paths. The eXtended Finite Element Method (XFEM) is a recent improvement of the FEM, developed to allow the growth of discontinuities within bulk solids along an arbitrary path, by enriching degrees of freedom with special displacement functions, thus overcoming the main restriction of CZMs. These two techniques were tested to simulate adhesively bonded single- and double-lap joints. The comparative evaluation of the two methods showed their capabilities and/or limitations for this specific purpose.

Uncertainties in the prediction of spatial variability of soil CO2 emissions and related properties

A emissão de CO2 do solo apresenta alta variabilidade espacial, devido à grande dependência espacial observada nas propriedades do solo que a influenciam. Neste estudo, objetivou-se: caracterizar e relacionar a variabilidade espacial da respiração do solo e propriedades relacionadas; avaliar a acurácia dos resultados fornecidos pelo método da krigagem ordinária e simulação sequencial gaussiana; e avaliar a incerteza na predição da variabilidade espacial da emissão de CO2 do solo e demais propriedades utilizando a simulação sequencial gaussiana. O estudo foi conduzido em uma malha amostral irregular com 141 pontos, instalada sobre a cultura de cana-de-açúcar. Nesses pontos foram avaliados a emissão de CO2 do solo, a temperatura do solo, a porosidade livre de água, o teor de matéria orgânica e a densidade do solo. Todas as variáveis apresentaram estrutura de dependência espacial. A emissão de CO2 do solo mostrou correlações positivas com a matéria orgânica (r = 0,25, p < 0,05) e a porosidade livre de água (r = 0,27, p <0,01) e negativa com a densidade do solo (r = -0,41, p < 0,01). No entanto, quando os valores estimados espacialmente (N=8833) são considerados, a porosidade livre de água passa a ser a principal variável responsável pelas características espaciais da respiração do solo, apresentando correlação de 0,26 (p < 0,01). As simulações individuais propiciaram, para todas as variáveis analisadas, melhor reprodução das funções de distribuição acumuladas e dos variogramas, em comparação à krigagem e estimativa E-type. As maiores incertezas na predição da emissão de CO2 estiveram associadas às regiões da área estudada com maiores valores observados e estimados, produzindo estimativas, ao longo do período estudado, de 0,18 a 1,85 t CO2 ha-1, dependendo dos diferentes cenários simulados. O conhecimento das incertezas gerado por meio dos diferentes cenários de estimativa pode ser incluído em inventários de gases do efeito estufa, resultando em estimativas mais conservadoras do potencial de emissão desses gases.