Risk-conscious Reconstruction in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. A Case Study of the Chakhama Valley

The Chakhama Valley, a remote area in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, was badly damaged by the 7.6-magnitude earthquake that struck India and Pakistan on 8 October 2005. More than 5% of the population lost their lives, and about 90% of the existing housing was irreparably damaged or completely destroyed. In early 2006, the Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN) initiated a multisector, community-driven reconstruction program in the Chakhama Valley on the premise that the scale of the disaster required a response that would address all aspects of people's lives. One important aspect covered the promotion of disaster risk management for sustainable recovery in a safe environment. Accordingly, prevailing hazards (rockfalls, landslides, and debris flow, in addition to earthquake hazards) and existing risks were thoroughly assessed, and the information was incorporated into the main planning processes. Hazard maps, detailed site investigations, and proposals for precautionary measures assisted engineers in supporting the reconstruction of private homes in safe locations to render investments disaster resilient. The information was also used for community-based land use decisions and disaster mitigation and preparedness. The work revealed three main problems: (1) thorough assessment of hazards and incorporation of this assessment into planning processes is time consuming and often little understood by the population directly affected, but it pays off in the long run; (2) relocating people out of dangerous places is a highly sensitive issue that requires the support of clear and forceful government policies; and (3) the involvement of local communities is essential for the success of mitigation and preparedness.

Fostering sustainable urban development in Nakuru, Kenya Rift Valley

The town of Nakuru—Kenya's fourth largest town—lies in a unique setting in the Great Rift Valley. Recent developments on the Menengai Crater, the Mau Escarpment, and the Bahati Highlands exemplify the impacts of poorly planned urban growth on mountain ecosystems. The Nakuru Local Urban Observatory (LUO) project was initiated by the Municipal Council of Nakuru in January 2003, in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Environment (CDE) of the University of Berne and the Intermediate Technology Development Group (ITDG), and with funding from the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC). The project aims to provide a framework for sustainable urban development practices by building technical skills and improving participation by local stakeholders in decision-making processes. The potentials of information technology (IT) are being tapped to provide up-to-date information to decision-makers and democratize access to information, in order to improve public participation. The overall objective is to find ways of achieving better urban management in order to mitigate non-sustainable development trends in the town and its surroundings.

The silent services of the world ocean

The most recent comprehensive assessment carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has concluded that “Human influence on the climate system is clear,” a headline statement that was approved by all governments in consensus. This influence will have long-lasting consequences for ecosystems, and the resulting impacts will continue to be felt millennia from now. Although the terrestrial impacts of climate change are readily apparent now and have received widespread public attention, the effects of climate change on the oceans have been relatively invisible. However, the world ocean provides a number of crucial services that are of global significance, all of which come with an increasing price caused by human activities. This needs to be taken into account when considering adaptation to and mitigation of anthropogenic climate change.

Earthquake- induced Geomorphology: A Neotectonic Study at the Front of the Alps (Lake Thun & Aare Valley, Switzerland)

We present a multi-disciplinary two-step approach to assess the potential for seismic hazard of the Aare valley and perialpine Lake Thun (Switzerland). High-resolution seismic images and multibeam-bathymetric data, complemented by field observations represent the tools to identify potentially active seismogenic fault structures. Several second-order earthquake effects such as subaqueous mass movements, seismites and liquefaction structures have been observed in Lake Thun and ultimately document the seismic activity of the study area. A first investigation of possibly first-order active structures is presented in the scope of this study. Recently acquired bathymetric data in Lake Thun reveal significant morphologic depressions aligning with an observed lineament on land. Furthermore, high-resolution seismic images indicate potential fault structures in Lake Thun. However, their continuation with depth has to be verified with a multichannel seismic campaign, scheduled for March 2015.

Primary lowland dipterocarp forest at Danum Valley, Sabah, Malaysia. Species composition and patterns in the understorey

The spatial distributions of species of tree ≥10 cm gbh were examined in two 4 ha plots and related to the local variation in topography and soil chemistry. The plots were similar in their species composition, particularly in terms of the densities of small trees, and they showed very similar edaphic characteristics. Size class distributions varied little within and between plots. Ordination of 0.25 ha subplots highlighted parallel gradients in the vegetation of both plots when the densities of trees ≥10 cm gbh were considered. Focusing on understorey trees in the 10-<50 cm gbh class at the 0.04 ha subplot scale showed a similar vegetation gradient in both plots closely associated with change from lower slope to ridge. No relationship with soil chemistry was found. On the ridges a special group of understorey species formed clumps and these species contributed importantly to the ordinations. Borneo has a regional history of occasionally severe droughts. It is suggested here that the observed patterns in the understorey are due to differential responses to low soil water supply, the ridges probably tending to dryness more than the lower slopes. Within the large and diverse family Euphorbiaceae, which dominates the understorey at Danum, there may be ecophysiological groupings of species. The long-term effects of disturbance interacting with local edaphic factors on forest structure and composition are discussed.

Primary forest dynamics in lowland dipterocarp forest at Danum Valley, Sabah, Malaysia, and the role of the understorey

Changes in species composition in two 4–ha plots of lowland dipterocarp rainforest at Danum, Sabah, were measured over ten years (1986 to 1996) for trees greater than or equal to 10 cm girth at breast height (gbh). Each included a lower–slope to ridge gradient. The period lay between two drought events of moderate intensity but the forest showed no large lasting responses, suggesting that its species were well adapted to this regime. Mortality and recruitment rates were not unusual in global or regional comparisons. The forest continued to aggrade from its relatively (for Sabah) low basal area in 1986 and, together with the very open upper canopy structure and an abundance of lianas, this suggests a forest in a late stage of recovery from a major disturbance, yet one continually affected by smaller recent setbacks. Mortality and recruitment rates were not related to population size in 1986, but across subplots recruitment was positively correlated with the density and basal area of small trees (10 to <50 cm gbh) forming the dense understorey. Neither rate was related to topography. While species with larger mean gbh had greater relative growth rates (rgr) than smaller ones, subplot mean recruitment rates were correlated with rgr among small trees. Separating understorey species (typically the Euphorbiaceae) from the overstorey (Dipterocarpaceae) showed marked differences in change in mortality with increasing gbh: in the former it increased, in the latter it decreased. Forest processes are centred on this understorey quasi–stratum. The two replicate plots showed a high correspondence in the mortality, recruitment, population changes and growth rates of small trees for the 49 most abundant species in common to both. Overstorey species had higher rgrs than understorey ones, but both showed considerable ranges in mortality and recruitment rates. The supposed trade–off in traits, viz slower rgr, shade tolerance and lower population turnover in the understorey group versus faster potential growth rate, high light responsiveness and high turnover in the overstorey group, was only partly met, as some understorey species were also very dynamic. The forest at Danum, under such a disturbance–recovery regime, can be viewed as having a dynamic equilibrium in functional and structural terms. A second trade–off in shade–tolerance versus drought–tolerance is suggested for among the understorey species. A two–storey (or vertical component) model is proposed where the understorey–overstorey species’ ratio of small stems (currently 2:1) is maintained by a major feedback process. The understorey appears to be an important part of this forest, giving resilience against drought and protecting the overstorey saplings in the long term. This view could be valuable for understanding forest responses to climate change where drought frequency in Borneo is predicted to intensify in the coming decades.

THE NATURAL BACKGROUND GAMMA RADIATION EXPOSURE IN THE METROPOLITAN AREA OF THE VALLEY OF MEXICO

Measurements of the natural background radiation have been made at numerous places throughout the world. Very little work in this field has been done in developing countries. In Mexico the natural radiation to which the population is exposed has not been assessed. This dissertation represents a pioneer study in this environmental area. The radiation exposure which occupants within buildings receive as a result of naturally occurring radionuclides present in construction materials is the principal focus.^ Data were collected between August 1979 and November 1980. Continuous monitoring was done with TLDs placed on site for periods of 3 to 6 months. The instrumentation used for "real-time" measurements was a portable NaI (Tl) scintillation detector. In addition, radiometric measurements were performed on construction materials commonly used in Mexican homes.^ Based on TLD readings taken within 75 dwellings, the typical indoor exposure for a resident of the study area is 9.2 (mu)Rh('-1). The average reading of the 152 indoor scintillometer surveys was 9.5 (mu)Rh('-1), the outdoor reading 7.5 (mu)Rh('-1). Results of one-way and multi-way analyses of the exposure data to determine the effect due to building materials type, geologic subsoil, age of dwelling, and elevation are also presented. The results of 152 indoor scintillometer surveys are described. ^

West Nile virus in the Rio Grande Valley: A seroprevalence study of juvenile dogs

This study used canine sentinel surveillance and collected a sample of adult mosquitoes to investigate the potential impact of West Nile virus (WNV) in human populations in the Rio Grande Valley along the Texas-Mexico border. Samples for this study were collected from juvenile dogs two months to one year of age in animal shelters located in the Rio Grande Valley. The sample was comprised of stray dogs in order to include animals with maximum nighttime exposures to Culex mosquitoes. Serum samples were collected following the 2007 WNV transmission season and were tested for IgG antibodies against WNV. Evidence of antibodies to WNV was found in 35.1% of the sample population consisting of 74 dogs. During this same time period, mosquitoes in Brownsville were trapped and morphologically identified to develop greater understanding of the mosquito populations in the region and to further understand other potential mosquito vectors for disease transmission. The vast majority of mosquitoes living in this area were Aedes albopictus (47.6%), Culex quinquefasciatus (23.7%), and Aedes aegypti (20.1%). This study shows that WNV and the vector responsible for WNV transmission are active in the Rio Grande Valley and pose a threat to the human and animal populations. ^

Occupational performance of Mexican Americans with end-stage-renal-disease living on dialysis in the lower Rio Grande Valley

The number of people with end-stage-renal-disease (ESRD) and living with dialysis is a growing public health concern. Most studies about the impact of ESRD on people’s lives have placed attention on the medical and clinical dimension of ESRD. Very few have given attention to the environmental and cultural context in which people with ESRD live, the adaptation that these individuals must make to adjust to living with ESRD and dialysis, or the occupations in which they engage. Additionally these studies have not focused on Mexican Americans who are disproportionately affected by this illness and condition. This qualitative study explores the needs, perceptions, and issues facing Mexican Americans with ESRD living with dialysis as well as their families. Participants were residents of the Lower Rio Grande Valley and included individuals with ESRD, family members, and the healthcare providers who give care to them. The Health Belief Model and Lifestyle Performance Model served as the theoretical frameworks. The study also explored the daily occupations of this population. ^ In-depth interviews were conducted on 15 Mexican Americans with ESRD living with dialysis, 15 family members, and six dialysis healthcare providers. A video documentary of the day-to-day life of three individuals with ESRD and their families was produced. Such data do not currently exist and will greatly enhance the understanding of the human experience of living with ESRD. The results suggest that a collective effort of the family unit is at work to deal with the demands of dialysis. An imbalance and disharmony exist among the occupational activities, which creates occupational deprivation and disruption for both the individuals and family members. Implications for practice and recommendations for further research are described. ^

Statistical and methodological challenges for disaster preparedness and medical needs assessment in Rio Grande Valley of Texas

In recent years, disaster preparedness through assessment of medical and special needs persons (MSNP) has taken a center place in public eye in effect of frequent natural disasters such as hurricanes, storm surge or tsunami due to climate change and increased human activity on our planet. Statistical methods complex survey design and analysis have equally gained significance as a consequence. However, there exist many challenges still, to infer such assessments over the target population for policy level advocacy and implementation. ^ Objective. This study discusses the use of some of the statistical methods for disaster preparedness and medical needs assessment to facilitate local and state governments for its policy level decision making and logistic support to avoid any loss of life and property in future calamities. ^ Methods. In order to obtain precise and unbiased estimates for Medical Special Needs Persons (MSNP) and disaster preparedness for evacuation in Rio Grande Valley (RGV) of Texas, a stratified and cluster-randomized multi-stage sampling design was implemented. US School of Public Health, Brownsville surveyed 3088 households in three counties namely Cameron, Hidalgo, and Willacy. Multiple statistical methods were implemented and estimates were obtained taking into count probability of selection and clustering effects. Statistical methods for data analysis discussed were Multivariate Linear Regression (MLR), Survey Linear Regression (Svy-Reg), Generalized Estimation Equation (GEE) and Multilevel Mixed Models (MLM) all with and without sampling weights. ^ Results. Estimated population for RGV was 1,146,796. There were 51.5% female, 90% Hispanic, 73% married, 56% unemployed and 37% with their personal transport. 40% people attained education up to elementary school, another 42% reaching high school and only 18% went to college. Median household income is less than $15,000/year. MSNP estimated to be 44,196 (3.98%) [95% CI: 39,029; 51,123]. All statistical models are in concordance with MSNP estimates ranging from 44,000 to 48,000. MSNP estimates for statistical methods are: MLR (47,707; 95% CI: 42,462; 52,999), MLR with weights (45,882; 95% CI: 39,792; 51,972), Bootstrap Regression (47,730; 95% CI: 41,629; 53,785), GEE (47,649; 95% CI: 41,629; 53,670), GEE with weights (45,076; 95% CI: 39,029; 51,123), Svy-Reg (44,196; 95% CI: 40,004; 48,390) and MLM (46,513; 95% CI: 39,869; 53,157). ^ Conclusion. RGV is a flood zone, most susceptible to hurricanes and other natural disasters. People in the region are mostly Hispanic, under-educated with least income levels in the U.S. In case of any disaster people in large are incapacitated with only 37% have their personal transport to take care of MSNP. Local and state government’s intervention in terms of planning, preparation and support for evacuation is necessary in any such disaster to avoid loss of precious human life. ^ Key words: Complex Surveys, statistical methods, multilevel models, cluster randomized, sampling weights, raking, survey regression, generalized estimation equations (GEE), random effects, Intracluster correlation coefficient (ICC).^

Confidential inquiry into perinatal mortality in the Lower Rio Grande Valley, 1988

A review of 1985 neonatal death statistics in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas revealed an excessive perinatal death rate among Hispanics compared to Anglos. In order to identify factors contributing to perinatal mortality in the region and to determine if existing perinatal services were adequate, a confidential inquiry into each 1988 perinatal death was performed.^ Medical risk factors in the mothers were infrequent. The most commonly noted pregnancy complication was polyhydramnios. This complication is often associated with anencephalus which was the most frequent birth anomaly detected in the region.^ The study results did not reveal an association between lay midwife deliveries in the region and excessive perinatal mortality nor did perinatal mortality appear to be associated with a lack of neonatal intensive care facilities. Lack of prenatal care was the most commonly encountered preventable factor associated with perinatal death. It was not possible to determine if the level of care for Anglos and Hispanics differed because of the low number of Anglo deaths although the socioeconomic level of deaths in each of the ethnic groups was the same. ^

Seroprevalence of Chagas' disease in Texas among shelter dogs in Houston and the Rio Grande Valley region and its implication for human infection

Chagas’ disease, also called American Trypanosomiasis, is a vector-borne disease caused by the protozoan parasite Trypanosoma cruzi. T. cruzi is spread by triatomine insects, commonly referred to as ‘kissing bugs.’ After the insect takes a blood meal from its animal or human host, it usually defecates near the bite wound. The parasite is present in the feces, and when rubbed into the bite wound or mucous membranes by the host, infection ensues. Chagas’ disease is highly endemic in Central and South America where it originated. Many people in these endemic areas live in poor conditions surrounded by animals, mainly dogs, that can serve as a possible link to human infection. In Chagas’ endemic countries, dogs can be used as a sentinel to infer risk for human infection. In Texas, the prevalence of Chagas’ and risk for human infection is largely unknown. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of Chagas’ disease in shelter dogs in Houston, Texas and the Rio Grande Valley region by using an immunochromatographic assay (Chagas’ Stat-Pak) to test for the presence of T. cruzi antibodies. Of the 822 samples tested, 26 were found to be positive (3.2%). In both locations, Chagas’ prevalence increased over time. This study found that dogs, especially strays, can serve as sentinels for disease activity. Public health authorities can implement this strategy to understand the level of Chagas’ activity in a defined geographic area and prevent human infection.^