Effect of patient accrual patterns on power and size of log-rank test for time-to-event outcome in clinical trials

The determination of size as well as power of a test is a vital part of a Clinical Trial Design. This research focuses on the simulation of clinical trial data with time-to-event as the primary outcome. It investigates the impact of different recruitment patterns, and time dependent hazard structures on size and power of the log-rank test. A non-homogeneous Poisson process is used to simulate entry times according to the different accrual patterns. A Weibull distribution is employed to simulate survival times according to the different hazard structures. The current study utilizes simulation methods to evaluate the effect of different recruitment patterns on size and power estimates of the log-rank test. The size of the log-rank test is estimated by simulating survival times with identical hazard rates between the treatment and the control arm of the study resulting in a hazard ratio of one. Powers of the log-rank test at specific values of hazard ratio (≠1) are estimated by simulating survival times with different, but proportional hazard rates for the two arms of the study. Different shapes (constant, decreasing, or increasing) of the hazard function of the Weibull distribution are also considered to assess the effect of hazard structure on the size and power of the log-rank test. ^

Nd bulk isotopes and 40Ar/39Ar ages of individual minerals from Aurora and Wilkes sub-glacial basin sediments

The Wilkes and Aurora basins are large, low-lying sub-glacial basins that may cause areas of weakness in the overlying East Antarctic ice sheet. Previous work based on ice-rafted debris (IRD) provenance analyses found evidence for massive iceberg discharges from these areas during the late Miocene and Pliocene. Here we characterize the sediments shed from the inferred areas of weakness along this margin (94°E to 165°E) by measuring40Ar/39Ar ages of 292 individual detrital hornblende grains from eight marine sediment core locations off East Antarctica and Nd isotopic compositions of the bulk fine fraction from the same sediments. We further expand the toolbox for Antarctic IRD provenance analyses by exploring the application of 40Ar/39Ar ages of detrital biotites; biotite as an IRD tracer eliminates lithological biases imposed by only analyzing hornblendes and allows for characterization of samples with low IRD concentrations. Our data quadruples the number of detrital 40Ar/39Ar ages from this margin of East Antarctica and leads to the following conclusions: (1) Four main sectors between the Ross Sea and Prydz Bay, separated by ice drainage divides, are distinguishable based upon the combination of 40Ar/39Ar ages of detrital hornblende and biotite grains and the e-Nd of the bulk fine fraction; (2) 40Ar/39Ar biotite ages can be used as a robust provenance tracer for this part of East Antarctica; and (3) sediments shed from the coastal areas of the Aurora and Wilkes sub-glacial basins can be clearly distinguished from one another based upon their isotopic fingerprints.

The emission reduction effect and economic impact of an energy tax vs. a carbon tax in China : a dynamic CGE model analysis

Chinese government commits to reach its peak carbon emissions before 2030, which requires China to implement new policies. Using a CGE model, this study conducts simulation studies on the functions of an energy tax and a carbon tax and analyzes their effects on macro-economic indices. The Chinese economy is affected at an acceptable level by the two taxes. GDP will lose less than 0.8% with a carbon tax of 100, 50, or 10 RMB/ton CO2 or 5% of the delivery price of an energy tax. Thus, the loss of real disposable personal income is smaller. Compared with implementing a single tax, a combined carbon and energy tax induces more emission reductions with relatively smaller economic costs. With these taxes, the domestic competitiveness of energy intensive industries is improved. Additionally, we found that the sooner such taxes are launched, the smaller the economic costs and the more significant the achieved emission reductions.

A combined measure for quantifying and qualifying the topology preservation of growing self-organizing maps

The Self-OrganizingMap (SOM) is a neural network model that performs an ordered projection of a high dimensional input space in a low-dimensional topological structure. The process in which such mapping is formed is defined by the SOM algorithm, which is a competitive, unsupervised and nonparametric method, since it does not make any assumption about the input data distribution. The feature maps provided by this algorithm have been successfully applied for vector quantization, clustering and high dimensional data visualization processes. However, the initialization of the network topology and the selection of the SOM training parameters are two difficult tasks caused by the unknown distribution of the input signals. A misconfiguration of these parameters can generate a feature map of low-quality, so it is necessary to have some measure of the degree of adaptation of the SOM network to the input data model. The topologypreservation is the most common concept used to implement this measure. Several qualitative and quantitative methods have been proposed for measuring the degree of SOM topologypreservation, particularly using Kohonen's model. In this work, two methods for measuring the topologypreservation of the Growing Cell Structures (GCSs) model are proposed: the topographic function and the topology preserving map

Estrategias innovadoras para la gestión del riesgo de sequía en sistemas ganaderos extensivos

La vulnerabilidad de los sistemas ganaderos de pastoreo pone en evidencia la necesidad de herramientas para evaluar y mitigar los efectos de la sequía. El avance en la teledetección ha despertado el interés por explotar potenciales aplicaciones, y está dando lugar a un intenso desarrollo de innovaciones en distintos campos. Una de estas áreas es la gestión del riesgo climático, en donde la utilización de índices de vegetación permite la evaluación de la sequía. En esta investigación, se analiza el impacto de la sequía y se evalúa el potencial de nuevas tecnologías como la teledetección para la gestión del riesgo de sequía en sistemas de ganadería extensiva. Para ello, se desarrollan tres aplicaciones: (i) evaluar el impacto económico de la sequía en una explotación ganadera extensiva de la dehesa de Andalucía, (ii) elaborar mapas de vulnerabilidad a la sequía en pastos de Chile y (iii) diseñar y evaluar el potencial de un seguro indexado para sequía en pastos en la región de Coquimbo en Chile. En la primera aplicación, se diseña un modelo dinámico y estocástico que integra aspectos climáticos, ecológicos, agronómicos y socioeconómicos para evaluar el riesgo de sequía. El modelo simula una explotación ganadera tipo de la dehesa de Andalucía para el período 1999-2010. El método de Análisis Histórico y la simulación de MonteCarlo se utilizan para identificar los principales factores de riesgo de la explotación, entre los que destacan, los periodos de inicios del verano e inicios de invierno. Los resultados muestran la existencia de un desfase temporal entre el riesgo climático y riesgo económico, teniendo este último un periodo de duración más extenso en el tiempo. También, revelan que la intensidad, frecuencia y duración son tres atributos cruciales que determinan el impacto económico de la sequía. La estrategia de reducción de la carga ganadera permite aminorar el riesgo, pero conlleva una disminución en el margen bruto de la explotación. La segunda aplicación está dedicada a la elaboración de mapas de vulnerabilidad a la sequia en pastos de Chile. Para ello, se propone y desarrolla un índice de riesgo económico (IRESP) sencillo de interpretar y replicable, que integra factores de riesgo y estrategias de adaptación para obtener una medida del Valor en Riesgo, es decir, la máxima pérdida esperada en un año con un nivel de significación del 5%.La representación espacial del IRESP pone en evidencia patrones espaciales y diferencias significativas en la vulnerabilidad a la sequía a lo largo de Chile. Además, refleja que la vulnerabilidad no siempre esta correlacionada con el riesgo climático y demuestra la importancia de considerar las estrategias de adaptación. Las medidas de autocorrelación espacial revelan que el riesgo sistémico es considerablemente mayor en el sur que en el resto de zonas. Los resultados demuestran que el IRESP transmite información pertinente y, que los mapas de vulnerabilidad pueden ser una herramienta útil en el diseño de políticas y toma de decisiones para la gestión del riesgo de sequía. La tercera aplicación evalúa el potencial de un seguro indexado para sequía en pastos en la región de Coquimbo en Chile. Para lo cual, se desarrolla un modelo estocástico para estimar la prima actuarialmente justa del seguro y se proponen y evalúan pautas alternativas para mejorar el diseño del contrato. Se aborda el riesgo base, el principal problema de los seguros indexados identificado en la literatura y, que está referido a la correlación imperfecta del índice con las pérdidas de la explotación. Para ello, se sigue un enfoque bayesiano que permite evaluar el impacto en el riesgo base de las pautas de diseño propuestas: i) una zonificación por clúster que considera aspectos espacio-temporales, ii) un período de garantía acotado a los ciclos fenológicos del pasto y iii) umbral de garantía. Los resultados muestran que tanto la zonificación como el periodo de garantía reducen el riesgo base considerablemente. Sin embargo, el umbral de garantía tiene un efecto ambiguo sobre el riesgo base. Por otra parte, la zonificación por clúster contribuye a aminorar el riesgo sistémico que enfrentan las aseguradoras. Estos resultados han puesto de manifiesto que un buen diseño de contrato puede tener un doble dividendo, por un lado aumentar su utilidad y, por otro, reducir el coste del seguro. Un diseño de contrato eficiente junto con los avances en la teledetección y un adecuado marco institucional son los pilares básicos para el buen funcionamiento de un programa de seguro. Las nuevas tecnologías ofrecen un importante potencial para la innovación en la gestión del riesgo climático. Los avances en este campo pueden proporcionar importantes beneficios sociales en los países en desarrollo y regiones vulnerables, donde las herramientas para gestionar eficazmente los riesgos sistémicos como la sequía pueden ser de gran ayuda para el desarrollo. The vulnerability of grazing livestock systems highlights the need for tools to assess and mitigate the adverse impact of drought. The recent and rapid progress in remote sensing has awakened an interest for tapping into potential applications, triggering intensive efforts to develop innovations in a number of spheres. One of these areas is climate risk management, where the use of vegetation indices facilitates assessment of drought. This research analyzes drought impacts and evaluates the potential of new technologies such as remote sensing to manage drought risk in extensive livestock systems. Three essays in drought risk management are developed to: (i) assess the economic impact of drought on a livestock farm in the Andalusian Dehesa, (ii) build drought vulnerability maps in Chilean grazing lands, and (iii) design and evaluate the potential of an index insurance policy to address the risk of drought in grazing lands in Coquimbo, Chile. In the first essay, a dynamic and stochastic farm model is designed combining climate, agronomic, socio-economic and ecological aspects to assess drought risk. The model is developed to simulate a representative livestock farm in the Dehesa of Andalusia for the time period 1999-2010. Burn analysis and MonteCarlo simulation methods are used to identify the significance of various risk sources at the farm. Most notably, early summer and early winter are identified as periods of peak risk. Moreover, there is a significant time lag between climate and economic risk and this later last longer than the former. It is shown that intensity, frequency and duration of the drought are three crucial attributes that shape the economic impact of drought. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to assess the sustainability of farm management strategies and demonstrates that lowering the stocking rate reduces farmer exposure to drought risk but entails a reduction in the expected gross margin. The second essay, mapping drought vulnerability in Chilean grazing lands, proposes and builds an index of economic risk (IRESP) that is replicable and simple to interpret. This methodology integrates risk factors and adaptation strategies to deliver information on Value at Risk, maximum expected losses at 5% significance level. Mapping IRESP provides evidence about spatial patterns and significant differences in drought vulnerability across Chilean grazing lands. Spatial autocorrelation measures reveal that systemic risk is considerably larger in the South as compared to Northern or Central Regions. Furthermore, it is shown that vulnerability is not necessarily correlated with climate risk and that adaptation strategies do matter. These results show that IRESP conveys relevant information and that vulnerability maps may be useful tools to assess policy design and decision-making in drought risk management. The third essay develops a stochastic model to estimate the actuarially fair premium and evaluates the potential of an indexed insurance policy to manage drought risk in Coquimbo, a relevant livestock farming region of Chile. Basis risk refers to the imperfect correlation of the index and farmer loses and is identified in the literature as a main limitation of index insurance. A Bayesian approach is proposed to assess the impact on basis risk of alternative guidelines in contract design: i) A cluster zoning that considers space-time aspects, ii) A guarantee period bounded to fit phenological cycles, and iii) the triggering index threshold. Results show that both the proposed zoning and guarantee period considerably reduces basis risk. However, the triggering index threshold has an ambiguous effect on basis risk. On the other hand, cluster zoning contributes to ameliorate systemic risk faced by the insurer. These results highlighted that adequate contract design is important and may result in double dividend. On the one hand, increasing farmers’ utility and, secondly, reducing the cost of insurance. An efficient contract design coupled with advances in remote sensing and an appropriate institutional framework are the basis for an efficient operation of an insurance program. The new technologies offer significant potential for innovation in climate risk managements. Progress in this field is capturing increasing attention and may provide important social gains in developing countries and vulnerable regions where the tools to efficiently manage systemic risks, such as drought, may be a means to foster development.

Análisis de las diversas metodologías para el estudio del sistema de atraque en terminales portuarias

This paper is concerned with the study of the berth system in port terminals. The main objective is to present the management methodologies, which include empirical methods, analytical methods and simulation methods The comparison shows that these three methods are not independent, but they are complementary. Each method has advantages and limitations and these depend on the type of study performed.

Nanoinformatics: developing new computing applications for nanomedicine

Nanoinformatics has recently emerged to address the need of computing applications at the nano level. In this regard, the authors have participated in various initiatives to identify its concepts, foundations and challenges. While nanomaterials open up the possibility for developing new devices in many industrial and scientific areas, they also offer breakthrough perspectives for the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of diseases. In this paper, we analyze the different aspects of nanoinformatics and suggest five research topics to help catalyze new research and development in the area, particularly focused on nanomedicine. We also encompass the use of informatics to further the biological and clinical applications of basic research in nanoscience and nanotechnology, and the related concept of an extended ?nanotype? to coalesce information related to nanoparticles. We suggest how nanoinformatics could accelerate developments in nanomedicine, similarly to what happened with the Human Genome and other -omics projects, on issues like exchanging modeling and simulation methods and tools, linking toxicity information to clinical and personal databases or developing new approaches for scientific ontologies, among many others.

Desarrollo de métodos numérico-interpretativos para la realización de ensayos de bombeo

Los ensayos de bombeo son, sin lugar a dudas, una de las pruebas más fiables y de mayor interés que se hacen en el medio físico. No son pruebas estrictamente puntuales, dado que el bombeo atrae flujo desde distancias lejanas al pozo, la prueba tiene una excelente representatividad espacial. Los métodos de interpretación mediante ensayos de bombeo se empezaron a plantear en la primera mitad del pasado siglo. Con los ensayos de bombeo se puede calcular la transmisividad y coeficiente de almacenamiento de las formaciones acuíferas y suministran información sobre el tipo de acuífero, la calidad constructiva del pozo de extracción, la existencia de barreras impermeable o bordes de recarga próximos, e incluso en algunas circunstancias permiten el cálculo del área de embalse subterráneo. Desde mediados del siglo 20 existe una eficaz y abundante gama de métodos analítico-interpretativos de ensayos de bombeo, tanto en régimen permanente como transitorio. Estos métodos son ampliamente conocidos y están muy experimentados a lo largo de muchos países, sin embargo, hoy día, podrían utilizarse modelos de flujo para la interpretación, logrando la misma fiabilidad e incluso mejores posibilidades de análisis. Muchos ensayos que no pueden interpretarse porque las configuraciones del medio son demasiado complejas y no están disponibles, o no es posible, el desarrollo de métodos analíticos, tienen buena adaptación y en ocasiones muy fácil solución haciendo uso de los métodos numéricos de simulación del flujo. En esta tesis se ha buscado una vía de interpretar ensayos de bombeo haciendo uso de modelos de simulación del flujo. Se utiliza el modelo universal MODFLOW del United States Geological Survey, en el cual se configura una celda de simulación y mallado particularmente adecuados para el problema a tratar, se valida con los métodos analíticos existentes. Con la célula convenientemente validada se simulan otros casos en los que no existen métodos analíticos desarrollados dada la complejidad del medio físico a tratar y se sacan las oportunas conclusiones. Por último se desarrolla un modelo específico y la correspondiente aplicación de uso general para la interpretación numérica de ensayos de bombeo tanto con las configuraciones normales como con configuraciones complejas del medio físico. ABSTRACT Pumping tests are, without doubt, one of the most reliable and most interesting tests done in the physical environment. They are not strictly anecdotal evidence, since pumping flow attracts from far distances to the well, the test has excellent spatial representation. Methods of interpretation by pumping tests began to arise in the first half of last century. With pumping tests, can be calculated transmissivity and storage coefficient of the aquifer formations, and provide information on the type of aquifer, the construction quality of the well, the existence of waterproof barriers or borders next recharge, and even in some circumstances allow calculating the area of underground reservoir. Since the mid-20th century there is effective and abundant range of analytical interpretative pumping tests, both in steady state and transient methods. These methods are very widely known and experienced over many countries, however, nowadays, may flow models used for interpretation, obtaining equally reliable or even better possibilities for analysis. Many trials cannot be interpreted as environmental settings are too complex and are not available, or not possible, the development of analytical methods, have good adaptation and sometimes very easily solved using numerical flow simulation methods. This thesis has sought a way to interpret pumping tests using flow simulation models. MODFLOW universal model of United States Geological Survey, in which a simulation cell and meshing particularly suitable for the problem to be treated, is validated with existing analytical methods used is set. With suitably validated cell other cases where there are no analytical methods developed given the complexity of the physical environment to try and draw appropriate conclusions are simulated. Finally, a specific model and the corresponding application commonly used for numerical interpretation of pumping tests both with normal settings as complex configurations of the physical environment is developed.

Solução rasterizada para o problema de empacotamento de fita irregular utilizando a Montanha Voronoi.

O empacotamento irregular de fita é um grupo de problemas na área de corte e empacotamento, cuja aplicação é observada nas indústrias têxtil, moveleira e construção naval. O problema consiste em definir uma configuração de itens irregulares de modo que o comprimento do contêiner retangular que contém o leiaute seja minimizado. A solução deve ser válida, isto é, não deve haver sobreposição entre os itens, que não devem extrapolar as paredes do contêiner. Devido a aspectos práticos, são admitidas até quatro orientações para o item. O volume de material desperdiçado está diretamente relacionado à qualidade do leiaute obtido e, por este motivo, uma solução eficiente pressupõe uma vantagem econômica e resulta em um menor impacto ambiental. O objetivo deste trabalho consiste na geração automática de leiautes de modo a obter níveis de compactação e tempo de processamento compatíveis com outras soluções na literatura. A fim de atingir este objetivo, são realizadas duas propostas de solução. A primeira consiste no posicionamento sequencial dos itens de modo a maximizar a ocorrência de posições de encaixe, que estão relacionadas à restrição de movimento de um item no leiaute. Em linhas gerais, várias sequências de posicionamentos são exploradas com o objetivo de encontrar a solução mais compacta. Na segunda abordagem, que consiste na principal proposta deste trabalho, métodos rasterizados são aplicados para movimentar itens de acordo com uma grade de posicionamento, admitindo sobreposição. O método é baseado na estratégia de minimização de sobreposição, cujo objetivo é a eliminação da sobreposição em um contêiner fechado. Ambos os algoritmos foram testados utilizando o mesmo conjunto de problemas de referência da literatura. Foi verificado que a primeira estratégia não foi capaz de obter soluções satisfatórias, apesar de fornecer informações importantes sobre as propriedades das posições de encaixe. Por outro lado, a segunda abordagem obteve resultados competitivos. O desempenho do algoritmo também foi compatível com outras soluções, inclusive em casos nos quais o volume de dados era alto. Ademais, como trabalho futuro, o algoritmo pode ser estendido de modo a possibilitar a entrada de itens de geometria genérica, o que pode se tornar o grande diferencial da proposta.

Occupational employment survey booklet of definitions : primary metals industries.

"BLS-2877 233."

SERI laser scanner system /

A Laser Scanner System (LSS) produces a photoresponse map and can be used for the nondestructive detection of nonuniformities in the photoresponse of a semiconductor device. At SERI the photoresponse maps are used to identify solar cell faults including microcracks, metallization breaks, regions of poor contact between metallization and the underlying emitter surface, and variations in emitter sheet resistance.

1987 census of manufactures.

Mode of access: Internet.

1987 census of manufactures.

Mode of access: Internet.

How to enamel : being a treatise on the practical enameling of jewelry with hard enamels /

Mode of access: Internet.