Exchange rate forecasting using a combined parametric and nonparametric self-organising modelling approach

Financial prediction has attracted a lot of interest due to the financial implications that the accurate prediction of financial markets can have. A variety of data driven modellingapproaches have been applied but their performance has produced mixed results. In this study we apply both parametric (neural networks with active neurons) and nonparametric (analog complexing) self-organisingmodelling methods for the daily prediction of the exchangerate market. We also propose acombinedapproach where the parametric and nonparametricself-organising methods are combined sequentially, exploiting the advantages of the individual methods with the aim of improving their performance. The combined method is found to produce promising results and to outperform the individual methods when tested with two exchangerates: the American Dollar and the Deutche Mark against the British Pound.

Leader-member exchange and contextual performance:the mediating influence of organization-based self-esteem

This study examined the mediating influence of organization-based self-esteem (OBSE) on the relationship between leader-member exchange (LMX) and contextual performance. Respondents were Indian employees and their immediate supervisors. Results of structural equation modeling (SEM) that compared the fit of a fully mediated model to a partially mediated model revealed support for the hypothesized fully mediated model. Specifically, the SEM results showed the relationship between LMX and the contextual performance facets of interpersonal facilitation and job dedication to be indirect, through OBSE. Support for the hypothesized mediating influence of OBSE highlights the multiple motivational underpinnings of contextual performance

The effects of self-monitoring on homework completion and accuracy rates of students with disabilities in an inclusive general education classroom

This study investigated the effects of self-monitoring on the homework completion and accuracy rates of four, fourth-grade students with disabilities in an inclusive general education classroom. A multiple baseline across subjects design was utilized to examine four dependent variables: completion of spelling homework, accuracy of spelling homework, completion of math homework, accuracy of math homework. Data were collected and analyzed during baseline, three phases of intervention, and maintenance. ^ Throughout baseline and all phases, participants followed typical classroom procedures, brought their homework to school each day and gave it to the general education teacher. During Phase I of the intervention, participants self-monitored with a daily sheet at home and on the computer at school in the morning using KidTools (Fitzgerald & Koury, 2003); a student friendly, self-monitoring program. They also participated in brief daily conferences to review their self-monitoring sheets with the investigator, their special education teacher. Phase II followed the same steps except conferencing was reduced to two days a week, which were randomly selected by the researcher and Phase III conferencing was one random day a week. Maintenance data were taken over a two-to-three week period subsequent to the end of the intervention. ^ Results of this study demonstrated self-monitoring substantially improved spelling and math homework completion and accuracy rates of students with disabilities in an inclusive, general education classroom. On average, completion and accuracy rates were highest over baseline in Phase III. Self-monitoring led to higher percentages of completion and accuracy during each phase of the intervention compared to baseline, group percentages also rose slightly during maintenance. Therefore, results suggest self-monitoring leads to short-term maintenance in spelling and math homework completion and accuracy. ^ This study adds to the existing literature by investigating the effects of self-monitoring of homework for students with disabilities included in general education classrooms. Future research should consider selecting participants with other demographic characteristics, using peers for conferencing instead of the teacher, and the use of self-monitoring with other academic subjects (e.g., science, history). Additionally, future research could investigate the effects of each of the two self-monitoring components used alone, with or without the conferencing.^

Tradução, adaptação cultural e validação da escala Moorong Self-Efficacy Scale (MSES) para o português no Brasil = : Translation, cultural adaptation and validation of Moorong Self-Efficacy Scale (MSES) into Brazilian Portuguese

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Physical signatures of discontinuities of the time-dependent exchange-correlation potential

The exact exchange-correlation (XC) potential in time-dependent density-functional theory (TDDFT) is known to develop steps and discontinuities upon change of the particle number in spatially confined regions or isolated subsystems. We demonstrate that the self-interaction corrected adiabatic local-density approximation for the XC potential has this property, using the example of electron loss of a model quantum well system. We then study the influence of the XC potential discontinuity in a real-time simulation of a dissociation process of an asymmetric double quantum well system, and show that it dramatically affects the population of the resulting isolated single quantum wells. This indicates the importance of a proper account of the discontinuities in TDDFT descriptions of ionization, dissociation or charge transfer processes.

Test–retest repeatability of self-reported environmental exposures in Parkinson’s disease cases and healthy controls

There is substantial disagreement among published epidemiological studies regarding environmental risk factors for Parkinson’s disease (PD). Differences in the quality of measurement of environmental exposures may contribute to this variation. The current study examined the test–retest repeatability of self-report data on risk factors for PD obtained from a series of 32 PD cases recruited from neurology clinics and 29 healthy sex-, age-and residential suburb-matched controls. Exposure data were collected in face-to-face interviews using a structured questionnaire derived from previous epidemiological studies. High repeatability was demonstrated for ‘lifestyle’ exposures, such as smoking and coffee/tea consumption (kappas 0.70–1.00). Environmental exposures that involved some action by the person, such as pesticide application and use of solvents and metals, also showed high repeatability (kappas>0.78). Lower repeatability was seen for rural residency and bore water consumption (kappa 0.39–0.74). In general, we found that case and control participants provided similar rates of incongruent and missing responses for categorical and continuous occupational, domestic, lifestyle and medical exposures.

Evolution of stress deficit and changing rates of seismicity in cellular automaton models of earthquake faults

We investigate the internal dynamics of two cellular automaton models with heterogeneous strength fields and differing nearest neighbour laws. One model is a crack-like automaton, transferring ail stress from a rupture zone to the surroundings. The other automaton is a partial stress drop automaton, transferring only a fraction of the stress within a rupture zone to the surroundings. To study evolution of stress, the mean spectral density. f(k(r)) of a stress deficit held is: examined prior to, and immediately following ruptures in both models. Both models display a power-law relationship between f(k(r)) and spatial wavenumber (k(r)) of the form f(k(r)) similar tok(r)(-beta). In the crack model, the evolution of stress deficit is consistent with cyclic approach to, and retreat from a critical state in which large events occur. The approach to criticality is driven by tectonic loading. Short-range stress transfer in the model does not affect the approach to criticality of broad regions in the model. The evolution of stress deficit in the partial stress drop model is consistent with small fluctuations about a mean state of high stress, behaviour indicative of a self-organised critical system. Despite statistics similar to natural earthquakes these simplified models lack a physical basis. physically motivated models of earthquakes also display dynamical complexity similar to that of a critical point system. Studies of dynamical complexity in physical models of earthquakes may lead to advancement towards a physical theory for earthquakes.

Variation in mortality rates in Australia: correlation with Indigenous status, remoteness and socio-economic deprivation

Background The aim of this study was to study ecological correlations between age-adjusted all-cause mortality rates in Australian statistical divisions and (1) the proportion of residents that self-identify as Indigenous, (2) remoteness, and (3) socio-economic deprivation. Methods All-cause mortality rates for 57 statistical divisions were calculated and directly standardized to the 1997 Australian population in 5-year age groups using Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data. The proportion of residents who self-identified as Indigenous was obtained from the 1996 Census. Remoteness was measured using ARIA (Accessibility and Remoteness Index for Australia) values. Socioeconomic deprivation was measured using SEIFA (Socio-Economic index for Australia) values from the ABS. Results Age-standardized all-cause mortality varies twofold from 5.7 to 11.3 per 1000 across Australian statistical divisions. Strongest correlation was between Indigenous status and mortality (r = 0.69, p < 0.001). correlation between remoteness and mortality was modest (r = 0.39, p = 0.002) as was correlation between socio-economic deprivation and mortality (r = -0.42, p = 0.001). Excluding the three divisions with the highest mortality, a multiple regression model using the logarithm of the adjusted mortality rate as the dependent variable showed that the partial correlation (and hence proportion of the variance explained) for Indigenous status was 0.03 (9 per cent; p = 0.03), for SEIFA score was -0.17 (3 per cent; p = 0.22); and for remoteness was -0.22 (5 per cent; p = 0.13). Collectively, the three variables studied explain 13 per cent of the variability in mortality. Conclusions Ecological correlation exists between all-cause mortality, Indigenous status, remoteness and disadvantage across Australia. The strongest correlation is with indigenous status, and correlation with all three characteristics is weak when the three statistical divisions with the highest mortality rates are excluded. intervention targeted at these three statistical divisions could reduce much of the variability in mortality in Australia.

Spectroelectrochemical Properties and Lithium Ion Storage in Self-Assembled Nanocomposites from TiO(2)

Layer-by-layer (LbL) nanocomposite films from TiO(2) nanoparticles and tungsten-based oxides (WO(x)H(y)), as well as dip-coating films of TiO(2) nano particles, were prepared and investigated by electrochemical techniques under visible light beams, aiming to evaluate the lithium ion storage and chromogenic properties. Atomic force microscopy (AFM) images were obtained for morphological characterization of the Surface of the materials, which have similar roughness. Cyclic voltammetry and chronoamperometry measurements indicated high storage capacity of lithium ions in the LbL nanocomposite compared with the dip-coating film, which was attributed to the faster lithium ion diffusion rate within the self-assembled matrix. On the basis of the data obtained from galvanostatic intermittent titration technique (GITT), the values of lithium ion diffusion coefficient (D(Li)) for TiO(2)/WO(x)H(y) were larger compared with those for TiO(2). The rate of the coloration front in the matrices was investigated using a spectroelectrochemical method based oil GITT, allowing the determination of the ""optical"" diffusion coefficient (D(op)) as a function of the amount of lithium ions previously inserted into the matrices. The Values of D(Li) and D(op) suggested the existence of phases with distinct contribution to lithium ion diffusion rates and electrochromic efficiency. Moreover, these results aided a better understanding of the temporal change of current density and absorbance during the ionic electro-insertion, which is important for the possible application of these materials in lithium ion batteries and electrohromic devices.

The impact of simple donor education on donor behavioral deferral and infectious disease rates in Sao Paulo, Brazil

BACKGROUND: Studies have shown that human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) residual risk is higher in Brazilian than in US and European blood donors, probably due to failure to defer at-risk individuals in Brazil. This study assessed the impact of an educational brochure in enhancing blood donors` knowledge about screening test window phase and reducing at-risk individuals from donating. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: This trial compared an educational intervention with a blood center`s usual practice. The brochure was distributed in alternating months to all donors. After donating, sampled participants completed two questions about their HIV window period knowledge. The impact on HIV risk deferral, leaving without donation, confidential unit exclusion (CUE) use, and test positivity was also analyzed. RESULTS: From August to November 2007 we evaluated 33,940 donations in the main collection center of Fundacao Pro-Sangue/Hemocentro de Sao Paulo in Sao Paulo, Brazil. A significant (p < 0.001) pamphlet effect was found on correct responses to both questions assessing HIV window phase knowledge (68.1% vs. 52.9%) and transfusion risk (91.1% vs. 87.2%). After adjusting for sex and age, the pamphlet effect was strongest for people with more than 8 years of education. There was no significant pamphlet effect on HIV risk deferral rate, leaving without donation, use of CUE, or infectious disease rates. CONCLUSION: While the educational pamphlet increased window period knowledge, contrary to expectations this information alone was not enough to make donors self-defer or acknowledge their behavioral risk.

Influence of Modified Posterior Reconstruction of the Rhabdosphincter on Early Recovery of Continence and Anastomotic Leakage Rates after Robot-Assisted Radical Prostatectomy

Background: Posterior reconstruction (PR) of the rhabdosphincter has been previously described during retropubic radical prostatectomy, and shorter times to return of urinary continence were reported using this technical modification. This technique has also been applied during robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP); however, contradictory results have been reported. Objective: We describe here a modified technique for PR of the rhabdosphincter during RARP and report its impact on early recovery of urinary continence and on cystographic leakage rates. Design, setting, and participants: We analyzed 803 consecutive patients who underwent RARP by a single surgeon over a 12-mo period: 330 without performing PR and 473 with PR. Surgical procedure: The reconstruction was performed using two 6-in 3-0 Poliglecaprone sutures tied together. The free edge of the remaining Denonvillier`s fascia was identified after prostatectomy and approximated to the posterior aspect of the rhabdosphincter and the posterior median raphe using one arm of the continuous suture. The second layer of the reconstruction was then performed with the other arm of the suture, approximating the posterior lip of the bladder neck and vesicoprostatic muscle to the posterior urethral edge. Measurements: Continence rates were assessed with a self-administrated, validated questionnaire (Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite) at 1, 4, 12, and 24 wk after catheter removal. Continence was defined as the use of ""no absorbent pads."" Cystogram was performed in all patients on postoperative day 4 or 5 before catheter removal. Results and limitations: There was no significant difference between the groups with respect to patient age, body mass index, prostate-specific antigen levels, prostate weight, American Urological Association symptom score, estimated blood loss, operative time, number of nerve-sparing procedures, and days with catheter. In the PR group, the continence rates at 1, 4, 12, and 24 wk postoperatively were 22.7%, 42.7%, 91.8%, and 96.3%, respectively; in the non-PR group, the continence rates were 28.7%, 51.6%, 91.1%, and 97%, respectively. The modified PR technique resulted in significantly higher continence rates at 1 and 4 wk after catheter removal (p = 0.048 and 0.016, respectively), although the continence rates at 12 and 24 wk were not significantly affected (p = 0.908 and p = 0.741, respectively). The median interval to recovery of continence was also statistically significantly shorter in the PR group (median: 4 wk; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.39-4.61) when compared to the non-PR group (median: 6 wk; 95% CI: 5.18-6.82; log-rank test, p = 0.037). Finally, the incidence of cystographic leaks was lower in the PR group (0.4% vs 2.1%; p = 0.036). Although the patients` baseline characteristics were similar between the groups, the patients were not preoperatively randomized and unknown confounding factors may have influenced the results. Conclusions: Our modified PR combines the benefits of early recovery of continence reported with the original PR technique with a reinforced watertight closure of the posterior anastomotic wall. Shorter interval to recovery of continence and lower incidence of cystographic leaks were demonstrated with our PR technique when compared to RARP with no reconstruction. (C) 2010 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of ion exchange on strength and slow crack growth of a dental porcelain

Objectives. To determine the effect of ion exchange on slow crack growth (SCG) parameters (n, stress corrosion susceptibility coefficient, and sigma(f0), scaling parameter) and Weibull parameters (m, Weibull modulus, and sigma(0), characteristic strength) of a dental porcelain. Methods. 160 porcelain discs were fabricated according to manufacturer`s instructions, polished through 1 mu m and divided into two groups: GC (control) and GI (submitted to an ion exchange procedure using a KNO(3) paste at 470 degrees C for 15 min). SCG parameters were determined by biaxial flexural strength test in artificial saliva at 37 degrees C using five constant stress rates (n =10). 20 specimens of each group were tested at 1 MPa/s to determine Weibull parameters. The SPT diagram was constructed using the least-squares fit of the strength data versus probability of failure. Results. Mean values of m and sigma(0) (95% confidence interval), n and sigma(f0) (standard deviation) were, respectively: 13.8 (10.1-18.8) and 60.4 (58.5 - 62.2), 24.1 (2.5) and 58.1 (0.01) for GC and 7.4 (5.3 -10.0) and 136.8 (129.1-144.7), 36.7 (7.3) and 127.9 (0.01) for GI. Fracture stresses (MPa) calculated using the SPT diagram for lifetimes of 1 day, 1 year and 10 years (at a 5% failure probability) were, respectively, 31.8, 24.9 and 22.7 for GC and 71.2, 60.6 and 56.9 for GI. Significance. For the porcelain tested, the ion exchange process improved strength and resistance to SCG, however, the material`s reliability decreased. The predicted fracture stress at 5% failure probability for a lifetime of 10 years was also higher for the ion treated group. (C) 009 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Randomized Clinical Evaluation of a One- and Two-step Self-etch Adhesive Over 24 Months

Objective: To evaluate the performance of All Bond SE used in a one- or two-step protocol in a 24-month randomized clinical study. Methods: Thirty-three patients with two similarly sized non-carious cervical lesions participated in this study. A total of 66 restorations were placed, half using the one-step All Bond SE protocol (SE-1) and the other half using the two-step All Bond SE protocol (SE-2). The restorations were evaluated at baseline and after 6, 12 and 24 months following the modified USPHS criteria and analyzed by the McNemar`s test and Fisher`s exact test (alpha=0.05). Results: After 24 months, six SE-1 and four SE-2 restorations were rated as Bravo in marginal discoloration The retention rates for SE-1 and SE-2 were 84.8% and 90.9%, respectively, after 24 months. Compared to baseline, the retention rate for SE-1 was statistically lower. Conclusions: All Bond SE used in the one- or two-step protocol resulted in high retention rates after 24 months.