Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations

The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed Indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures. The paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios, political risk and application of chaos theory. The paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity, probability, type of event, level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pharmacologically induced and stimulus evoked rhythmic neuronal oscillatory activity in the primary motor cortex in vitro

Parkinson's disease (PD) is associated with enhanced synchronization of neuronal network activity in the beta (15-30 Hz) frequency band across several nuclei of the basal ganglia (BG). Deep brain stimulation of the subthalamic nucleus (STN) appears to reduce this pathological oscillation, thereby alleviating PD symptoms. However, direct stimulation of primary motor cortex (M1) has recently been shown to be effective in reducing symptoms in PD, suggesting a role for cortex in patterning pathological rhythms. Here, we examine the properties of M1 network oscillations in coronal slices taken from rat brain. Oscillations in the high beta frequency range (layer 5, 27.8 +/- 1.1 Hz, n=6) were elicited by co-application of the glutamate receptor agonist kainic acid (400 nM) and muscarinic receptor agonist carbachol (50 mu M). Dual extracellular recordings, local application of tetrodotoxin and recordings in M1 micro-sections indicate that the activity originates within deep layers V/VI. Beta oscillations were unaffected by specific AMPA receptor blockade, abolished by the GABA type A receptor (GABAAR) antagonist picrotoxin and the gap-junction blocker carbenoxolone, and modulated by pentobarbital and zolpidem indicating dependence on networks of GABAergic interneurons and electrical coupling. High frequency stimulation (HFS) at 125 Hz in superficial layers, designed to mimic transdural/transcranial stimulation, generated gamma oscillations in layers 11 and V (incidence 95%, 69.2 +/- 7.3 Hz, n=17) with very fast oscillatory components (VFO; 100-250 Hz). Stimulation at 4 Hz, however, preferentially promoted theta activity (incidence 62.5%, 5.1 +/- 0.6 Hz, n=15) that effected strong amplitude modulation of ongoing beta activity. Stimulation at 20 Hz evoked mixed theta and gamma responses. These data suggest that within M1, evoked theta, gamma and fast oscillations may coexist with and in some cases modulate pharmacologically induced beta oscillations.

On models for magnetic field line diffusion

In this contribution, certain aspects of the nonlinear dynamics of magnetic field lines are reviewed. First, the basic facts (known from literature) concerning the Hamiltonian structure are briefly summarized. The paper then concentrates on the following subjects: (i) Transition from the continuous description to discrete maps; (ii) Characteristics of incomplete chaos; (iii) Control of chaos. The presentation is concluded by some remarks on the motion of particles in stochastic magnetic fields.

End-to-end versus hop-by-hop soft state refresh for multi-hop signalling systems

To ensure state synchronization of signalling operations, many signaling protocol designs choose to establish “soft” state that expires if it is not refreshed. The approaches of refreshing state in multi-hop signaling system can be classified as either end-to-end (E2E) or hop-by-hop (HbH). Although both state refresh approaches have been widely used in practical signaling protocols, the design tradeoffs between state synchronization and signaling cost have not yet been fully investigated. In this paper, we investigate this issue from the perspectives of state refresh and state removal. We propose simple but effective Markov chain models for both approaches and obtain closed-form solutions which depict the state refresh performance in terms of state consistency and refresh message rate, as well as the state removal performance in terms of state removal delay. Simulations verify the analytical models. It is observed that the HbH approach yields much better state synchronization at the cost of higher signaling cost than the E2E approach. While the state refresh performance can be improved by increasing the values of state refresh and timeout timers, the state removal delay increases largely for both E2E and HbH approaches. The analysis here shed lights on the design of signaling protocols and the configuration of the timers to adapt to changing network conditions.

Timing continuous or discontinuous movements across effectors specified by different pacing modalities and intervals

Sensorimotor synchronization is hypothesized to arise through two different processes, associated with continuous or discontinuous rhythmic movements. This study investigated synchronization of continuous and discontinuous movements to different pacing signals (auditory or visual), pacing interval (500, 650, 800, 950 ms) and across effectors (non-dominant vs. non-dominant hand). The results showed that mean and variability of asynchronization errors were consistently smaller for discontinuous movements compared to continuous movements. Furthermore, both movement types were timed more accurately with auditory pacing compared to visual pacing and were more accurate with the dominant hand. Shortening the pacing interval also improved sensorimotor synchronization accuracy in both continuous and discontinuous movements. These results show the dependency of temporal control of movements on the nature of the motor task, the type and rate of extrinsic sensory information as well as the efficiency of the motor actuators for sensory integration.

Metodologia de estimação de estados para tratamento de medições errôneas e registros não sincronizados em algoritmos de localização de faltas em linhas de transmissão

The performance of algorithms for fault location i n transmission lines is directly related to the accuracy of its input data. Thus, fa ctors such as errors in the line parameters, failures in synchronization of oscillographic recor ds and errors in measurements of voltage and current can significantly influence the accurac y of algorithms that use bad data to indicate the fault location. This work presents a new method ology for fault location in transmission lines based on the theory of state estimation in or der to determine the location of faults more accurately by considering realistic systematic erro rs that may be present in measurements of voltage and current. The methodology was implemente d in two stages: pre-fault and post- fault. In the first step, assuming non-synchronized data, the synchronization angle and positive sequence line parameters are estimated, an d in the second, the fault distance is estimated. Besides calculating the most likely faul t distance obtained from measurement errors, the variance associated with the distance f ound is also determined, using the errors theory. This is one of the main contributions of th is work, since, with the proposed algorithm, it is possible to determine a most likely zone of f ault incidence, with approximately 95,45% of confidence. Tests for evaluation and validation of the proposed algorithm were realized from actual records of faults and from simulations of fictitious transmission systems using ATP software. The obtained results are relevant to show that the proposed estimation approach works even adopting realistic variances, c ompatible with real equipments errors.

Mecanismos de sincronia social no ritmo circadiano de atividade durante a coabitação em casais de saguis (Callithrix jacchus)

In marmosets, it was observed that the synchrony among circadian activity profiles of animals that cohabite in family groups is stronger than those of the same sex and age of different families. Inside the group, it is stronger between the younger ones than between them and their parents. However, the mechanisms involved in the social synchrony are unknown. With the aim to investigate the synchronization mechanisms involved in the synchrony between the circadian activity profiles during cohabitation in pairs of marmosets, the motor activity was continuously registered by the use of actmeters on three dyads. The pairs were maintained in two different conditions of illumination: light-dark cycle LD 12:12 (LD cohabitation I – 21 days), and thereafter in LL (~350 lux). Under LL, the pairs were submitted to four experimental situations: 1. Cohabitation (LLJ I – 24 days), 2. Removal of one member of the pair to another room with similar conditions (LLS I – 20 days), 3. Reintroduction of the separated member in the cage of the first situation (LLJ II – 30 days) and 4. Removal of a member from each pair to another experimental room (LLS II – 7 days), to evaluate the mechanisms of synchronization. Ultimately, the members of each pair were reintroduced in the cage and were kept in LD cycle 12:12 (LDJ II – 11 days). The rhythms of pairs free-ran in LL, with identical periods between the members of each pair during the two stages of cohabitation. In the stages in which the animals were separated, only the rhythms of two females free-ran in the first stage and of three animals in the second one. In those conditions, the rhythms of animals of each pair showed different endogenous periods. Besides, during cohabitation in LD and LL, the members of each pair showed a stable phase relationship in the beginning of the active phase, while in the stages in which the animals were separated it was noticed a breaking in the stability in the phase relationships between the circadian activity profiles, with an increase in the difference in the phase angles between them. During cohabitation, at the transition between LD and LL, all animals showed free-running rhythms anticipating progressively the beginning and the end of the active phase in a phase similar to the previous condition, showing signs of entrainment to the previous LD. While in the posterior stages this was observed in only three animals between: LLT I and LLS I, and LLT II and LLS II, evidencing signs of entrainment to social cues between the members of each pair. On the other hand, one animal delayed progressively between LLT I and LLS I, three animals delayed between LLS I and LLT II, and three animals between LLT II and LLS II, perhaps by entrainment to the animals maintained outdoors in the colony. Similar process was observed in four animals between LLS II and LDT II, indicating entrainment to LD. In the transition between LLS I and LLT II, signs of masking was observed in the rhythm of a female in response to the male and in another pair in the rhythm of the male in regard to that of the female. The general and maximum correlations in the circadian activity profiles were stronger during cohabitation in LD and LL than in the absence of social contact in LL, evidencing the social effect. The cohabiting pairs had higher values of the maximum correlation in LD and LL than when the profiles were correlated to animals of different cages, with same or different sexes. Similar results were observed in the general correlation. Therefore, it is suggested that cohabitation induces a strong synchrony between circadian activity profiles in marmosets, which involves entrainment and masking. Nevertheless, additional studies are necessary to evaluate the effect of social cues on the synchronization of the circadian rhythm in pairs of marmosets in the absence of external social cues in order to confirm this hypothesis.

Caracterização do ritmo circadiano de atividade e repouso em saguis idosos (Callithrix Jacchus)

Advanced age may become a limiting factor for the maintenance of rhythms in organisms, reducing the capacity of generation and synchronization of biological rhythms. In this study, the influence of aging on the expression of endogenous periodicity and synchronization (photic and social) of the circadian activity rhythm (CAR) was evaluated in a diurnal primate, the marmoset (Callithrix jacchus). This study had two approaches: one with longitudinal design, performed with a male marmoset in two different phases: adult (three years) and older (9 y.o.) (study 1) and the second, a transversal approach, with 6 old (♂: 9.7 ± 2.0 y.o.) and 11 adults animals (♂: 4.2 ± 0.8 y.o.) (study 2). The evaluation of the photic synchronization involved two conditions in LD (natural and artificial illuminations). In study 1, the animal was subjected to the following stages: LD (12:12 ~ 350: ~ 2 lx), LL (~ 350 lx) and LD resynchronization. In the second study, the animals were initially evaluated in natural LD, and then the same sequence stages of study 1. During the LL stage in study 2, the vocalizations of conspecifics kept in natural LD on the outside of the colony were considered temporal cue to the social synchronization. The record of the activity was performed automatically at intervals of five minutes through infrared sensor and actimeters, in studies 1 and 2, respectively. In general, the aged showed a more fragmented activity pattern (> IV < H and > PSD, ANOVA, p < 0.05), lower levels of activity (ANOVA, p < 0.05) and shorter duration of active phase (ANOVA, p < 0.05) in LD conditions, when compared to adults. In natural LD, the aged presented phase delay pronounced for onset and offset of active phase (ANOVA, p < 0.05), while the adults had the active phase more adjusted to light phase. Under artificial LD, there was phase advance and greater adjustment of onset and offset of activity in relation to the LD in the aged (ANOVA, p < 0.05). In LL, there was a positive correlation between age and the endogenous period () in the first 20 days (Spearman correlation, p < 0.05), with prolonged  held in two aged animals. In this condition, most adults showed free-running period of the circadian activity rhythm with  < 24 h for the first 30 days and later on relative coordination mediated by auditory cues. In study 2, the cross-correlation analysis between the activity profiles of the animals in LL with control animals kept under natural LD, found that there was less social synchronization in the aged. With the resubmission to the LD, the resynchronization rate was slower in the aged (t-test; p < 0.05) and in just one aged animal there was a loss of resynchronization capability. According to the data set, it is suggested that the aging in marmosets may be related to: 1) lower amplitude and greater fragmentation of the activity, accompanied to phase delay with extension of period, caused by changes in a photic input, in the generation and behavioral expression of the CAR; 2) lower capacity of the circadian activity rhythm to photic synchronization, that can become more robust in artificial lighting conditions, possibly due to the higher light intensities at the beginning of the active phase due to the abrupt transitions between the light and dark phases; and 3) smaller capacity of non-photic synchronization for auditory cues from conspecifics, possibly due to reducing sensory inputs and responsiveness of the circadian oscillators to auditory cues, what can make the aged marmoset most vulnerable, as these social cues may act as an important supporting factor for the photic synchronization.

Caracterização do ritmo circadiano de atividade e repouso em saguis idosos (Callithrix Jacchus)

Advanced age may become a limiting factor for the maintenance of rhythms in organisms, reducing the capacity of generation and synchronization of biological rhythms. In this study, the influence of aging on the expression of endogenous periodicity and synchronization (photic and social) of the circadian activity rhythm (CAR) was evaluated in a diurnal primate, the marmoset (Callithrix jacchus). This study had two approaches: one with longitudinal design, performed with a male marmoset in two different phases: adult (three years) and older (9 y.o.) (study 1) and the second, a transversal approach, with 6 old (♂: 9.7 ± 2.0 y.o.) and 11 adults animals (♂: 4.2 ± 0.8 y.o.) (study 2). The evaluation of the photic synchronization involved two conditions in LD (natural and artificial illuminations). In study 1, the animal was subjected to the following stages: LD (12:12 ~ 350: ~ 2 lx), LL (~ 350 lx) and LD resynchronization. In the second study, the animals were initially evaluated in natural LD, and then the same sequence stages of study 1. During the LL stage in study 2, the vocalizations of conspecifics kept in natural LD on the outside of the colony were considered temporal cue to the social synchronization. The record of the activity was performed automatically at intervals of five minutes through infrared sensor and actimeters, in studies 1 and 2, respectively. In general, the aged showed a more fragmented activity pattern (> IV < H and > PSD, ANOVA, p < 0.05), lower levels of activity (ANOVA, p < 0.05) and shorter duration of active phase (ANOVA, p < 0.05) in LD conditions, when compared to adults. In natural LD, the aged presented phase delay pronounced for onset and offset of active phase (ANOVA, p < 0.05), while the adults had the active phase more adjusted to light phase. Under artificial LD, there was phase advance and greater adjustment of onset and offset of activity in relation to the LD in the aged (ANOVA, p < 0.05). In LL, there was a positive correlation between age and the endogenous period () in the first 20 days (Spearman correlation, p < 0.05), with prolonged  held in two aged animals. In this condition, most adults showed free-running period of the circadian activity rhythm with  < 24 h for the first 30 days and later on relative coordination mediated by auditory cues. In study 2, the cross-correlation analysis between the activity profiles of the animals in LL with control animals kept under natural LD, found that there was less social synchronization in the aged. With the resubmission to the LD, the resynchronization rate was slower in the aged (t-test; p < 0.05) and in just one aged animal there was a loss of resynchronization capability. According to the data set, it is suggested that the aging in marmosets may be related to: 1) lower amplitude and greater fragmentation of the activity, accompanied to phase delay with extension of period, caused by changes in a photic input, in the generation and behavioral expression of the CAR; 2) lower capacity of the circadian activity rhythm to photic synchronization, that can become more robust in artificial lighting conditions, possibly due to the higher light intensities at the beginning of the active phase due to the abrupt transitions between the light and dark phases; and 3) smaller capacity of non-photic synchronization for auditory cues from conspecifics, possibly due to reducing sensory inputs and responsiveness of the circadian oscillators to auditory cues, what can make the aged marmoset most vulnerable, as these social cues may act as an important supporting factor for the photic synchronization.

Publicidade em celulares utilizando o sistema de busca de perfil

ARAÚJO, B. G. ; VALENTIM, R. A. M. . Publicidade em celulares utilizando o sistema de busca de perfil. Holos, Natal,v. 1, p. 109-118, 2010. Disponível em:

Hajautetun automaation käyttö osana simulaatiota

Työssä perehdytään simulaatiotekniikkaan, jossa käytetään osana fyysistä laitteistoa, ja siihen tarvittaviin komponentteihin, kuten ohjelmistorajapintoihin sekä kenttäväylään. Työssä tutustutaan myös IEC 61131-3 ja IEC 61499 -standardien mukaisiin toimintolohkomalleihin, joita käytetään automaatiossa. Näiden perusteella kehitetään järjestelmä, jonka avulla Simulink-ympäristössä voidaan oman toimintolohkon avulla käyttää taajuusmuuttajaa osana simulaatiota. Tällaisen reaaliaikaisen systeemin eri osien väliseen synkronointiin kiinnitetään myös huomiota. Järjestelmää testataan simulaatiomallilla, jossa syötetään vääntömomenttiohje taajuusmuuttajalle, joka mittaa siihen kytketyn moottorin pyörimisnopeuden. Mallilla voidaan esimerkiksi arvioida kuorman hitausmomentti. Työssä tutustutaan myös taajuusmuuttajien ohjelmallisiin ominaisuuksiin ja niiden perusteella pohditaan esitetyn kaltaisten järjestelmien käyttöä hajautettuna automaatiojärjestelmänä. Kokeellinen työ tehtiin säätö- ja digitaalitekniikan laboratoriossa vuoden 2010 aikana.

Publicidade em celulares utilizando o sistema de busca de perfil

ARAÚJO, B. G. ; VALENTIM, R. A. M. . Publicidade em celulares utilizando o sistema de busca de perfil. Holos, Natal,v. 1, p. 109-118, 2010. Disponível em:

Demonstrador para rede tempo-real HaRTES

A utilização de sistemas embutidos distribuídos em diversas áreas como a robótica, automação industrial e aviónica tem vindo a generalizar-se no decorrer dos últimos anos. Este tipo de sistemas são compostos por vários nós, geralmente designados por sistemas embutidos. Estes nós encontram-se interligados através de uma infra-estrutura de comunicação de forma a possibilitar a troca de informação entre eles de maneira a concretizar um objetivo comum. Por norma os sistemas embutidos distribuídos apresentam requisitos temporais bastante exigentes. A tecnologia Ethernet e os protocolos de comunicação, com propriedades de tempo real, desenvolvidos para esta não conseguem associar de uma forma eficaz os requisitos temporais das aplicações de tempo real aos requisitos Quality of Service (QoS) dos diferentes tipos de tráfego. O switch Hard Real-Time Ethernet Switching (HaRTES) foi desenvolvido e implementado com o objetivo de solucionar estes problemas devido às suas capacidades como a sincronização de fluxos diferentes e gestão de diferentes tipos de tráfego. Esta dissertação apresenta a adaptação de um sistemas físico de modo a possibilitar a demonstração do correto funcionamento do sistema de comunicação, que será desenvolvido e implementado, utilizando um switch HaRTES como o elemento responsável pela troca de informação na rede entre os nós. O desempenho da arquitetura de rede desenvolvida será também testada e avaliada.

Exploration d’un modèle d’étude simplifié de la spermiogenèse par l’utilisation de la levure à fission

Résumé: Les cellules germinales mâles remodèlent leur chromatine pour compacter leur noyau afin de protéger leur matériel génétique et assurer un transit optimal vers le gamète femelle. Il a été démontré que tous les spermatides de plusieurs mammifères, incluant l’homme et la souris, présentaient ce mécanisme de remodelage de la chromatine. Celui-ci est caractérisé par une augmentation transitoire de cassures d’ADN dont une quantité importante sont bicaténaires. Ce remodelage chromatinien a été étudié et semble être conservé chez plusieurs espèces, allant de l’algue à l’humain. Dans le contexte de la recherche fondamentale sur le phénomène de la spermiogenèse, il devient parfois très difficile d’investiguer certains aspects importants en vertu de l’impossibilité de réaliser des manipulations génétiques simples. Il est donc impératif de développer un nouveau modèle d’étude plus permissif afin de palier à ces difficultés encourues. Comme le processus de maturation des spores chez la levure à fission présente de grandes similitudes avec la spermiogenèse des mammifères, l’utilisation d’un modèle d’étude basé sur la sporulation de la levure à fission Schizosaccharomyces pombe a été proposée comme modèle comparatif de la spermatogenèse murine. À la suite de la synchronisation de la méiose de la souche S. pombe pat1-114, des analyses d’électrophorèse en champ pulsé (PFGE) et de qTUNEL ont permis de déterminer la présence de cassures bicaténaires transitoires de l’ADN lors de la maturation post-méiotique des ascospores nouvellement formés (t>7h). Des analyses par immunobuvardages dirigés contre le variant d’histones H2AS129p suggère la présence d’un remodelage chromatinien postméiotique dix heures suivant l’induction de la méiose, corroborant le modèle murin. Enfin, des analyses protéomiques couplées à l’analyse par spectrométrie de masse ont permis de proposer l’endonucléase Pnu1 comme candidat potentiellement responsable des cassures bicaténaires transitoires dans l’ADN des ascospores en maturation. En somme, bien que le processus de maturation des spores soit encore bien méconnu, quelques parallèles peuvent être tracés entre la maturation des ascospores de la levure à fission et la spermiogenèse des eucaryotes supérieurs. En identifiant un modèle simple du remodelage chromatinien au niveau de la spermiogenèse animale, on s’assurerait ainsi d’un outil beaucoup plus malléable et versatile pour l’étude fondamentale des événements survenant lors de la spermiogenèse humaine.

Una reflexión prospectiva sobre técnicas sostenibles para controlar la reproducción en mamíferos domésticos

El control de la reproducción de los animales de granja fue una de las herramientas esenciales en la domesticación. Esto es aún de gran interés para la mejora genética, el ajuste de la producción a la disponibilidad de alimentos y del mercado y finalmente, para la reducción de los períodos improductivos. La detección del comportamiento del estro, la sincronización de las concepciones y el incremento de la potencialidad de difusión de los padres de alta genética son tres objetivos comunes a la producción de todas las especies. Los variados sistemas reproductivos entre los diversos sistemas de producción difieren a causa de las propiedades intrínsecas de las especies y de los diferentes grados de intensificación de estos sistemas. Tres tendencias claras son el continuo incremento de la productividad por medio de las mejoras de la eficiencia reproductiva, el desarrollo de técnicas nuevas y sostenibles sin el uso de hormonas y el continuo desarrollo de la inseminación artificial y de las biotécnicas reproductivas. Las futuras áreas de inversión en investigación podrían ser: las bases fisiológicas y etológicas de las interrelaciones socio-sexuales entre animales, el control genético de parámetros reproductivos, el incremento en la eficiencia de biotecnologías clásicas y nuevas y la ingeniería de técnicas reproductivas nuevas e innovativas para ser utilizadas a nivel de granja. Estas técnicas reproductivas deberían ser desarrolladas respetando los tres pilares de la sostenibilidad: el ambiente, la economía y la sociedad. Por ello deberían estar incluidas dentro de los sistemas de producción en los cuales se supone que serán aplicadas y donde deberían ser evaluadas en su sostenibilidad.