Nominal Debt as a Burden on Monetary Policy

We study the effects of nominal debt on the optimal sequential choice of monetary policy. When the stock of debt is nominal, the incentive to generate unanticipated inflation increases the cost of the outstanding debt even if no unanticipated inflation episodes occur in equilibrium. Without full commitment, the optimal sequential policy is to deplete the outstanding stock of debt progressively until these extra costs disappear. Nominal debt is therefore a burden on monetary policy, not only because it must be serviced, but also because it creates a time inconsistency problem that distorts interest rates. The introduction of alternative forms of taxation may lessen this burden, if there is enough commtiment to fiscal policy. If there is full commitment to an optimal fiscal policy, then the resulting monetary policy is the Friedman rule of zero nominal interest rates.

Choice by sequential procedures

We propose a rule of decision-making, the sequential procedure guided byroutes, and show that three influential boundedly rational choice models can be equivalentlyunderstood as special cases of this rule. In addition, the sequential procedure guidedby routes is instrumental in showing that the three models are intimately related. We showthat choice with a status-quo bias is a refinement of rationalizability by game trees, which, inturn, is also a refinement of sequential rationalizability. Thus, we provide a sharp taxonomyof these choice models, and show that they all can be understood as choice by sequentialprocedures.

Business cycle measurement with some theory

A method to evaluate cyclical models not requiring knowledge of the DGP and the exact specificationof the aggregate decision rules is proposed. We derive robust restrictions in a class of models; use someto identify structural shocks in the data and others to evaluate the class or contrast sub-models. Theapproach has good properties, even in small samples, and when the class of models is misspecified. Themethod is used to sort out the relevance of a certain friction (the presence of rule-of-thumb consumers)in a standard class of models.

IRM cardiaque: imagerie de référence dans le diagnostic de la myocardite aiguë [Cardiac magnetic resonance in acute myocarditis: a new non-invasive diagnostic gold standard?].

Acute myocarditis was until recently one of the most difficult diagnoses in cardiology. The spectrum of signs and symptoms is very wide, the usual non-invasive tests lack specificity and the myocardial biopsy is only performed in a minority of cases to confirm the diagnosis. Due to its unique ability to directly image myocardial necrosis, fibrosis and oedema, cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) is now considered the primary tool for noninvasive assessment of patients with suspected myocarditis. CMR is also useful for monitoring disease activity under treatment. Myocarditis has been associated with the development of dilated cardiomyopathy; CMR could play a role in the follow-up of such cases to detect the progression toward a dilatative phenotype. Precise mapping of myocardial lesions with cardiac MRI is invaluable to guide myocardial biopsy and increase its diagnostic yield by improving sensitivity.

Nominal debt as a burden on monetary policy

We study the effects of nominal debt on the optimal sequential choice of monetary policy. When the stock of debt is nominal, the incentive to generate unanticipated inflation increases the cost of the outstanding debt even if no unanticipated inflation episodes occur in equilibrium. Without full commitment, the optimal sequential policy is to deplete the outstanding stock of debt progressively until these extra costs disappear. Nominal debt is therefore a burden on monetary policy, not only because it must be serviced, but also because it creates a time inconsistency problem that distorts interest rates. The introduction of alternative forms of taxation may lessen this burden, if there is enough commtiment to fiscal policy. If there is full commitment to an optimal fiscal policy, then the resulting monetary policy is the Friedman rule of zero nominal interest rates.

Oikeusvaltiollinen demokratia ja jatkuvan keskustelun eetos

Abstract: Democracy, rule of law and ongoing conversation

Signing on Very Low Volume Rurd Roads Iowa DOT Project HR-262, July, 1984

Research was undertaken to define an appropriate level of use of traffic control devices on rural secondary roads that carry very low traffic volumes. The goal of this research was to improve the safety and efficiency of travel on the rural secondary road system. This goal was to be accomplished by providing County Engineers with guidance concerning the cost-effective use of traffic control devices on very low volume rural roads. A further objective was to define the range of traffic volumes on the roads for which the recommendations would be appropriate. Little previous research has been directed toward roads that carry very low traffic volumes. Consequently, the factual input for this research was developed by conducting an inventory of the signs and markings actually in use on 2,069 miles of rural road in Iowa. Most of these roads carried 15 or fewer vehicles per day. Additional input was provided by a survey of the opinions of County Engineers and Supervisors in Iowa. Data from both the inventory and the opinion survey indicated a considerable lack of uniformity in the application of signs on very low volume rural roads. The number of warning signs installed varied from 0.24 per mile to 3.85 per mile in the 21 counties in which the inventory was carried out. The use of specific signs not only varied quite widely among counties but also indicated a lack of uniform application within counties. County officials generally favored varying the elaborateness of signing depending upon the type of surface and the volume of traffic on different roads. Less elaborate signing would be installed on an unpaved road than on a paved road. A concensus opinion was that roads carrying fewer than 25 vehicles per day should have fewer signs than roads carrying higher volumes. Although roads carrying 0 to 24 vehicles per day constituted over 24% of the total rural secondary system, they carried less than 3% of the total travel on that system. Virtually all of these roads are classified as area service roads and would thus be expected to carry only short trips primarily by local motorists. Consequently, it was concluded that the need for warning signs rarely can be demonstrated on unpaved rural roads with traffic volumes of fewer than 25 vehicles per day. It is recommended that each county designate a portion of its roads as an Area Service Level B system. All road segments with very low traffic volumes should be considered for inclusion in this system. Roads included in this system may receive a lesser level of maintenance and a reduced level of signing. The county is also afforded protection from liability arising from accidents occurring on roads designated as part of an Area Service Level B system. A uniform absence of warning signs on roads of this nature is not expected to have any discernible effect on the safety or quality of service on these very low volume roads. The resources conserved may be expended more effectively to upgrade maintenance and traffic control on roads carrying higher volumes where the beneficial effect on highway safety and service will be much more consequential.

El poblament rural del Camp de Tarragona en època tardo-republicana (segles II-I aC)

This project consists of a study of the settlement of population during the Late Republican period in the Camp de Tarragona, an extensive agricultural plain in the shape of a crescent moon opening out towards the sea which constitutes the area of land in closest proximity to the capital, Tarraco. It does not therefore include the entirety of the ager Tarraconensis, which covered a considerably larger area. After reviewing the preceding Iberian presence in the area, the study focuses on the archaeological evidence corroborating the settlement of population referred to above and its evolution during the course of the two centuries prior to the rule of Augustus. Attention is also given to certain speciic themes, such as the centuriation of certain sectors, the presence of military checkpoints, the production of ceramics during the Republican period (at Fontscaldes and Valls) and the appearance of the irst Roman villas (El Moro and El Mas d’en Gras).

Métropolisation, morphologie urbaine et développement durable : transformations urbaines et régulation de l'étalement : le cas de l'agglomération lausannoise

Résumé Métropolisation, morphologie urbaine et développement durable. Transformations urbaines et régulation de l'étalement : le cas de l'agglomération lausannoise. Cette thèse s'inscrit clans la perspective d'une analyse stratégique visant à un définir et à expliciter les liens entre connaissance, expertise et décision politique. L'hypothèse fondamentale qui oriente l'ensemble de ce travail est la suivante : le régime d'urbanisation qui s'est imposé au cours des trente dernières années correspond à une transformation du principe morphogénétique de développement spatial des agglomérations qui tend à alourdir leurs bilans écologiques et à péjorer la qualité du cadre de vie des citadins. Ces enjeux environnementaux liés aux changements urbains et singulièrement ceux de la forme urbaine constituent un thème de plus en plus important dans la recherche de solutions d'aménagement urbain dans une perspective de développement durable. Dans ce contexte, l'aménagement urbain devient un mode d'action et une composante de tout premier ordre des politiques publiques visant un développement durable à l'échelle locale et globale. Ces modalités de développement spatial des agglomérations émergent indiscutablement au coeur de la problématique environnementale. Or si le concept de développement durable nous livre une nouvelle de de lecture des territoires et de ses transformations, en prônant le modèle de la ville compacte et son corollaire la densification, la traduction à donner à ce principe stratégique reste controversée, notamment sous l'angle de l'aménagement du territoire et des stratégies de développement urbain permettant une mise en oeuvre adéquate des solutions proposées. Nous avons ainsi tenté dans ce travail de répondre à un certain nombre de questions : quelle validité accorder au modèle de la ville compacte ? La densification est-elle une réponse adéquate ? Si oui, sous quelles modalités ? Quelles sont, en termes de stratégies d'aménagement, les alternatives durables au modèle de la ville étalée ? Faut-il vraiment densifier ou simplement maîtriser la dispersion ? Notre objectif principal étant in fine de déterminer les orientations et contenus urbanistiques de politiques publiques visant à réguler l'étalement urbain, de valider la faisabilité de ces principes et à définir les conditions de leur mise en place dans le cas d'une agglomération. Pour cela, et après avoir choisi l'agglomération lausannoise comme terrain d'expérimentation, trois approches complémentaires se sont révélées indispensables dans ce travail 1. une approche théorique visant à définir un cadre conceptuel interdisciplinaire d'analyse du phénomène urbain dans ses rapports à la problématique du développement durable liant régime d'urbanisation - forme urbaine - développement durable ; 2. une approche méthodologique proposant des outils d'analyse simples et efficaces de description des nouvelles morphologies urbaines pour une meilleure gestion de l'environnement urbain et de la pratique de l'aménagement urbain ; 3. une approche pragmatique visant à approfondir la réflexion sur la ville étalée en passant d'une approche descriptive des conséquences du nouveau régime d'urbanisation à une approche opérationnelle, visant à identifier les lignes d'actions possibles dans une perspective de développement durable. Cette démarche d'analyse nous a conduits à trois résultats majeurs, nous permettant de définir une stratégie de lutte contre l'étalement. Premièrement, si la densification est acceptée comme un objectif stratégique de l'aménagement urbain, le modèle de la ville dense ne peut être appliqué saris la prise en considération d'autres objectifs d'aménagement. Il ne suffit pas de densifier pour réduire l'empreinte écologique de la ville et améliorer la qualité de vie des citadins. La recherche d'une forme urbaine plus durable est tributaire d'une multiplicité de facteurs et d'effets de synergie et la maîtrise des effets négatifs de l'étalement urbain passe par la mise en oeuvre de politiques urbaines intégrées et concertées, comme par exemple prôner la densification qualifiée comme résultante d'un processus finalisé, intégrer et valoriser les transports collectifs et encore plus la métrique pédestre avec l'aménagement urbain, intégrer systématiquement la diversité à travers les dimensions physique et sociale du territoire. Deuxièmement, l'avenir de ces territoires étalés n'est pas figé. Notre enquête de terrain a montré une évolution des modes d'habitat liée aux modes de vie, à l'organisation du travail, à la mobilité, qui font que l'on peut penser à un retour d'une partie de la population dans les villes centres (fin de la toute puissance du modèle de la maison individuelle). Ainsi, le diagnostic et la recherche de solutions d'aménagement efficaces et viables ne peuvent être dissociés des demandes des habitants et des comportements des acteurs de la production du cadre bâti. Dans cette perspective, tout programme d'urbanisme doit nécessairement s'appuyer sur la connaissance des aspirations de la population. Troisièmement, la réussite de la mise en oeuvre d'une politique globale de maîtrise des effets négatifs de l'étalement urbain est fortement conditionnée par l'adaptation de l'offre immobilière à la demande de nouveaux modèles d'habitat répondant à la fois à la nécessité d'une maîtrise des coûts de l'urbanisation (économiques, sociaux, environnementaux), ainsi qu'aux aspirations émergentes des ménages. Ces résultats nous ont permis de définir les orientations d'une stratégie de lutte contre l'étalement, dont nous avons testé la faisabilité ainsi que les conditions de mise en oeuvre sur le territoire de l'agglomération lausannoise. Abstract This dissertation participates in the perspective of a strategic analysis aiming at specifying the links between knowledge, expertise and political decision, The fundamental hypothesis directing this study assumes that the urban dynamics that has characterized the past thirty years signifies a trans-formation of the morphogenetic principle of agglomerations' spatial development that results in a worsening of their ecological balance and of city dwellers' quality of life. The environmental implications linked to urban changes and particularly to changes in urban form constitute an ever greater share of research into sustainable urban planning solutions. In this context, urban planning becomes a mode of action and an essential component of public policies aiming at local and global sustainable development. These patterns of spatial development indisputably emerge at the heart of environmental issues. If the concept of sustainable development provides us with new understanding into territories and their transformations, by arguing in favor of densification, its concretization remains at issue, especially in terms of urban planning and of urban development strategies allowing the appropriate implementations of the solutions offered. Thus, this study tries to answer a certain number of questions: what validity should be granted to the model of the dense city? Is densification an adequate answer? If so, under what terms? What are the sustainable alternatives to urban sprawl in terms of planning strategies? Should densification really be pursued or should we simply try to master urban sprawl? Our main objective being in fine to determine the directions and urban con-tents of public policies aiming at regulating urban sprawl, to validate the feasibility of these principles and to define the conditions of their implementation in the case of one agglomeration. Once the Lausanne agglomeration had been chosen as experimentation field, three complementary approaches proved to be essential to this study: 1. a theoretical approach aiming at definying an interdisciplinary conceptual framework of the ur-ban phenomenon in its relation to sustainable development linking urban dynamics - urban form - sustainable development ; 2. a methodological approach proposing simple and effective tools for analyzing and describing new urban morphologies for a better management of the urban environment and of urban planning practices 3. a pragmatic approach aiming at deepening reflection on urban sprawl by switching from a descriptive approach of the consequences of the new urban dynamics to an operational approach, aiming at identifying possible avenues of action respecting the principles of sustainable development. This analysis approach provided us with three major results, allowing us to define a strategy to cur-tail urban sprawl. First, if densification is accepted as a strategic objective of urban planning, the model of the dense city can not be applied without taking into consideration other urban planning objectives. Densification does not suffice to reduce the ecological impact of the city and improve the quality of life of its dwellers. The search for a more sustainable urban form depends on a multitude of factors and effects of synergy. Reducing the negative effects of urban sprawl requires the implementation of integrated and concerted urban policies, like for example encouraging densification qualified as resulting from a finalized process, integrating and developing collective forms of transportation and even more so the pedestrian metric with urban planning, integrating diversity on a systematic basis through the physical and social dimensions of the territory. Second, the future of such sprawling territories is not fixed. Our research on the ground revea-led an evolution in the modes of habitat related to ways of life, work organization and mobility that suggest the possibility of the return of a part of the population to the center of cities (end of the rule of the model of the individual home). Thus, the diagnosis and the search for effective and sustainable solutions can not be conceived of independently of the needs of the inhabitants and of the behavior of the actors behind the production of the built territory. In this perspective, any urban program must necessarily be based upon the knowledge of the population's wishes. Third, the successful implementation of a global policy of control of urban sprawl's negative effects is highly influenced by the adaptation of property offer to the demand of new habitat models satisfying both the necessity of urbanization cost controls (economical, social, environ-mental) and people's emerging aspirations. These results allowed us to define a strategy to cur-tail urban sprawl. Its feasibility and conditions of implementation were tested on the territory of the Lausanne agglomeration.

Women in leadership: Three essays

GENDER EMPOWERMENT: EFFECTS OF GODS, GEOGRAPHY, AND GDP¦Fenley, M., & Antonakis, J.¦ABSTRACT¦We examined the determinants of women's empowerment in the economy and political leadership in 178 countries. Given the androcentric nature of most religions, we hypothesized that high degrees of country-level theistic belief create social conditions that impede the progression of women to power. The dependent variable was the Gender Empowerment index of the United Nations Development Program, which captures the participation of women in political leadership, management, and their share of national income. Controlling for GDP per capita as well as the fixed-effects of the dominant type of religion and legal origin and instrumenting all endogenous variables with geographic or historical variables, our results show that atheism has a significant positive effect on gender empowerment. These results are driven by the rule of law, which in addition to being a catalyst for economic development, appears to crowd-out the informal regulation of behavior due to religious norms.¦DEVELOPING WOMEN LEADERS: COMPARING A TRANSFORMATIONAL AND A CHARISMATIC LEADERSHIP INTERVENTION¦Fenley, M., Jacquart, P., & Antonakis, J.¦ABSTRACT¦Along with a gender imbalance in leadership role occupancy, most leadership interventions have been conducted with samples of men. We conducted an experiment wherein we assigned female participants (n = 38, mean age = 35 years) to one of two conditions: Transformational (i.e., "standard") leadership training or charismatic leadership training. The two interventions were essentially equivalent, except that we also focused on developing the "charismatic leadership tactics" (e.g., rhetorical skills) of participants in the charismatic condition. After the interventions, we randomly assigned participants into problem-solving teams that required extensive interaction. Each team had an equal number of participants having received transformational training or charismatic training. At the end of the team exercises, participants rated each of their team members on a leadership prototypicality measure. Results indicated that those who received charismatic training scored higher (a) on prototypicality (standardized  = .42) and (b) on a test of declarative knowledge of charismatic rhetorical strategies (i.e., a manipulation check, standardized  = .76). Furthermore, the score on the test fully mediated the effect of the treatment on prototypicality (standardized indirect  = .32). We discuss the importance and practical implications of these results.¦CHANGING ATTITUDES TOWARDS WOMEN IN A MALE SEX-TYPE WORK ENVIRONMENT: EVIDENCE FROM A FIELD EXPERIMENT IN EUROPEAN ATHLETICS¦Fenley, M.¦ABSTRACT¦Most sports organizations have a similar gender gap in leadership as do the majority of non-sport organizations. Women's careers sputter somewhere at coaching level positions and few women obtain top leadership positions. Greater awareness of gender inequalities in general, and in leadership in particular, could decrease gender discrimination and increase women's presence at upper levels. The goal of this study was to evaluate the impact of an intervention using an online gender awareness exercise. Participants (n = 1,001 participants, n = 32 countries) were randomly assigned to one of eight conditions in a 2 (a discriminating perspective-taking story or a non-discriminating perspective-taking story) by 2 (gender quiz or no gender quiz) by 2 (diversity quiz or no diversity quiz) factorial design. The results show that the online perspective taking exercise changed initial sexist attitudes. Participants having taken a diversity quiz had less sexist attitudes (as measured by the Modern- and Old-fashioned sexism scale) than did participants who did not take the diversity quiz (irrespective of perspective-taking story). The combination of having taken a diversity quiz with a gender quiz had the biggest impact on attitudes for the non-discriminating story.

Early high-dose treatment: SCT results from the European High Risk Neuroblastoma Study

Aims: The HR-NBL1 Study of the European SIOP Neuroblastoma Group (SIOPEN) randomised two high dose regimens to learn about potential superiority and toxicity profiles.Patients and Methods: At interim analysis 1483 high risk neuroblastoma patients (893 males) were included since 2002 with either INSS stage 4 disease (1383 pts) above 1 year, or as infants (59 pts) and stage 2&3 of any age (145 pts) with MYCN amplification. The median age at diagnosis was 2.9 years (1 month-19.9 years) with a median follow up of 3 years. Response eligibility criteria prior randomisation after Rapid Cojec Induction (J Clin Oncol, 2010) ± 2 courses of TVD (Cancer, 2003) included complete bone marrow remission and at least partial response at skeletal sites with no more than 3, but improved mIBG positive spots and a PBSC harvest of at least 3x10E6 CD34/kgBW. The randomised regimens were BuMel [busulfan oral till 2006, 4x150mg/m² in 4 ED; or intravenous use according to body weight as licenced thereafter; melphalan 140mg/m²/day) and CEM [carboplatinum ctn. infusion (4x AUC 4.1mg/ml.min/day, etoposid ctn. infusion (4x 338mg/m²/day or [4x 200mg/m²/day]*, melphalan (3x70mg/m²/day; 3x60mg/m²/day*;*reduced dosis if GFR< 100ml/min/1.73m²). Supportive care followed institutional guidelines. VOD prophylaxis included ursadiol, but randomised patients were not eligible for the prophylactic defibrotide trial. Local control included surgery and radiotherapy of 21Gy.Results: Of 1483 patients, 584 were being randomised for the high dose question at data lock. A significant difference in event free survival (3-year EFS 49% vs. 33%, p<0.001) and overall survival (3-year OS 61% vs. 48%, p=0.003) favouring the BuMel regimen over the CEM regimen was demonstrated. The relapse/progression rate was significantly higher after CEM (0.60±0.03) than after BuMel (0.48±0.03)(p<0.001). Toxicity data had reached 80% completeness at last analysis. The severe toxicity rate up to day 100 (ICU and toxic deaths) was below 10%, but was significantly higher for CEM (p= 0.014). The acute toxic death rate was 3% for BuMel and 5% for CEM (NS). The acute HDT toxicity profile favours the BuMel regimen in spite of a total VOD incidence of 18% (grade 3:5%).Conclusions: The Peto rule of P<0.001 at interim analysis on the primary endpoint, EFS was met. Hence randomization was stopped with BuMel as recommended standard treatment in the HR-NBl1/SIOPEN trial which is still accruing for the randomised immunotherapy question.

Biopolítica de Estados expulsores

La biopolítica sobre los migrantes se fundamenta en el binomio dejar entrar-residir o expulsar. Las leyes de extranjería están elaboradas sobre dos ejes: por un lado, en la regulación de los flujos migratorios en función del mercado de trabajo y las demandas de la economía y, por otro, en el control policial y la persecución de la inmigración irregular. Para la realización del primer eje del binomio, dejar entrar y residir, los Estados se dotan de mecanismos de regulación e intervención sobre el inmigrante concebido como fuerza de trabajo productiva. Asimismo los Estados crean mecanismos de control-sanción para las personas migrantes que incumplen los requisitos establecidos para entrar y residir en el territorio. En este punto la biopolítica sobre la población migrante se solapa o toma forma en el ejercicio de la soberanía por el Leviatán. Las medidas de control y sanción que los gobiernos ponen en marcha sobre los sin papeles han creado una imponente maquinaria de coacción en el interior de las instituciones del Estado de derecho hasta el punto de convertirlo en un Estado expulsor.

Por un espacio público no estatal. Contra la hegemonía neoliberal y el declive de la democracia

Este artículo plantea la necesidad de crear un espacio público no estatal para defender el "bien común" en las democracias occidentales. La importante crisis de los partidos políticos y de las instituciones representativas exige la creación de nuevas instituciones desde la sociedad civil que tengan como principal fin la defensa del "bien común". La participación de los ciudadanos que formen parte de estas instituciones deberá estar regida por los principios del voluntarismo, la transparencia y el compromiso cívico. En la primera sección se realiza una breve descripción de las políticas que están poniendo hoy en cuestión el Estado de derecho y la democracia en los países occidentales: el neoliberalismo y el autoritarismo (1). En la segunda parte, se abordan los límites que presentan las teorías neoconstitucionalistas y del garantismo frente a la actual deriva autoritaria y neoliberal de las instituciones estatales (2). El texto concluye reivindicando la elaboración de una nueva antropología de la democracia que abra la puerta a la construcción de este nuevo espacio público independiente de las instituciones del actual modelo de Estado de derecho (3).