Paradigms in Statistical Inference for Finite Populations; Up to the 1950s

Modern sample surveys started to spread after statistician at the U.S. Bureau of the Census in the 1940s had developed a sampling design for the Current Population Survey (CPS). A significant factor was also that digital computers became available for statisticians. In the beginning of 1950s, the theory was documented in textbooks on survey sampling. This thesis is about the development of the statistical inference for sample surveys. For the first time the idea of statistical inference was enunciated by a French scientist, P. S. Laplace. In 1781, he published a plan for a partial investigation in which he determined the sample size needed to reach the desired accuracy in estimation. The plan was based on Laplace s Principle of Inverse Probability and on his derivation of the Central Limit Theorem. They were published in a memoir in 1774 which is one of the origins of statistical inference. Laplace s inference model was based on Bernoulli trials and binominal probabilities. He assumed that populations were changing constantly. It was depicted by assuming a priori distributions for parameters. Laplace s inference model dominated statistical thinking for a century. Sample selection in Laplace s investigations was purposive. In 1894 in the International Statistical Institute meeting, Norwegian Anders Kiaer presented the idea of the Representative Method to draw samples. Its idea was that the sample would be a miniature of the population. It is still prevailing. The virtues of random sampling were known but practical problems of sample selection and data collection hindered its use. Arhtur Bowley realized the potentials of Kiaer s method and in the beginning of the 20th century carried out several surveys in the UK. He also developed the theory of statistical inference for finite populations. It was based on Laplace s inference model. R. A. Fisher contributions in the 1920 s constitute a watershed in the statistical science He revolutionized the theory of statistics. In addition, he introduced a new statistical inference model which is still the prevailing paradigm. The essential idea is to draw repeatedly samples from the same population and the assumption that population parameters are constants. Fisher s theory did not include a priori probabilities. Jerzy Neyman adopted Fisher s inference model and applied it to finite populations with the difference that Neyman s inference model does not include any assumptions of the distributions of the study variables. Applying Fisher s fiducial argument he developed the theory for confidence intervals. Neyman s last contribution to survey sampling presented a theory for double sampling. This gave the central idea for statisticians at the U.S. Census Bureau to develop the complex survey design for the CPS. Important criterion was to have a method in which the costs of data collection were acceptable, and which provided approximately equal interviewer workloads, besides sufficient accuracy in estimation.

Nonlinear measures of QT interval series: novel indices of cardiac repolarization lability: MEDqthr and LLEqthr

In this study, we investigated nonlinear measures of chaos of QT interval time series in 28 normal control subjects, 36 patients with panic disorder and 18 patients with major depression in supine and standing postures. We obtained the minimum embedding dimension (MED) and the largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE) of instantaneous heart rate (HR) and QT interval series. MED quantifies the system's complexity and LLE predictability. There was a significantly lower MED and a significantly increased LLE of QT interval time series in patients. Most importantly, nonlinear indices of QT/HR time series, MEDqthr (MED of QT/HR) and LLEqthr (LLE of QT/HR), were highly significantly different between controls and both patient groups in either posture. Results remained the same even after adjusting for age. The increased LLE of QT interval time, series in patients with anxiety and depression is in line with our previous findings of higher QTvi (QT variability index, a log ratio of QT variability corrected for mean QT squared divided by heart rate variability corrected for mean heart rate squared) in these patients, using linear techniques. Increased LLEqthr (LLE of QT/HR) may be a more sensitive tool to study cardiac repolarization and a valuable addition to the time domain measures such as QTvi. This is especially important in light of the finding that LLEqthr correlated poorly and nonsignificantly with QTvi. These findings suggest an increase in relative cardiac sympathetic activity and a decrease in certain aspects of cardiac vagal function in patients with anxiety as well as depression. The lack of correlation between QTvi and LLEqthr suggests that this nonlinear index is a valuable addition to the linear measures. These findings may also help to explain the higher incidence of cardiovascular mortality in patients with anxiety and depressive disorders. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sustainability through remanufacturing in India: a case study on mobile handsets

Remanufacturing activities in India are still in nascent stages. However, the substantial growth of Indian economy, coupled with serious issues of population and environmental burden demands a radical shift in market strategies and legislations. The scattered and inefficient product recovery methods prevalent in India are unable to cope with increasing environmental and economic burden on the society - remanufacturing seems to be a promising strategy to explore for these. Our study investigated from a user's context the opportunity of establishing remanufacturing as a formal activity, answering the fundamental questions of whether remanufactured products would be accepted by Indian consumers and how these will fit into the Indian market. The study of the Indian mobile phone market eco-system showed how mobile phones currently move through the value chain, and the importance of the grey and used phone markets in this movement. A prescriptive model has been proposed which utilizes the usage patterns of different consumer groups to create a self-sustainable demand-supply system, potentially complementing frameworks such as the Automotive Remanufacturing Decision-Making Framework (RDMF). (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Medium-Voltage Inverter-Fed IM Drive Using Multilevel 12-Sided Polygonal Vectors, With Nearly Constant Switching Frequency Current Hysteresis Controller

In this paper, a current error space vector (CESV)-based hysteresis current controller for a multilevel 12-sided voltage space vector-based inverter-fed induction motor (IM) drive is proposed. The proposed controller gives a nearly constant switching frequency operation throughout different speeds in the linear modulation region. It achieves the elimination of 6n +/- 1, n = odd harmonics from the phase voltages and currents in the entire modulation range, with an increase in the linear modulation range. It also exhibits fast dynamic behavior under different transient conditions and has a simple controller implementation. Nearly constant switching frequency is obtained by matching the steady-state CESV boundaries of the proposed controller with that of a constant switching frequency SVPWM-based drive. In the proposed controller, the CESV reference boundaries are computed online, using the switching dwell time and voltage error vector of each applied vector. These quantities are calculated from estimated sampled reference phase voltages. Vector change is decided by projecting the actual current error along the computed hysteresis space vector boundary of the presently applied vector. The estimated reference phase voltages are found from the stator current error ripple and the parameters of the IM.

Universal Hashing for Information-Theoretic Security

The information-theoretic approach to security entails harnessing the correlated randomness available in nature to establish security. It uses tools from information theory and coding and yields provable security, even against an adversary with unbounded computational power. However, the feasibility of this approach in practice depends on the development of efficiently implementable schemes. In this paper, we review a special class of practical schemes for information-theoretic security that are based on 2-universal hash families. Specific cases of secret key agreement and wiretap coding are considered, and general themes are identified. The scheme presented for wiretap coding is modular and can be implemented easily by including an extra preprocessing layer over the existing transmission codes.

Molecular Cage Impregnated Palladium Nanoparticles: Efficient, Additive-Free Heterogeneous Catalysts for Cyanation of Aryl Halides

Two shape-persistent covalent cages (CC1(r) and CC2(r)) have been devised from triphenyl amine-based trialdehydes and cyclohexane diamine building blocks utilizing the dynamic imine chemistry followed by imine bond reduction. The cage compounds have been characterized by several spectroscopic techniques which suggest that CC1(r) and CC2(r) are 2+3] and 8+12] self-assembled architectures, respectively. These state-of-the-art molecules have a porous interior and stable aromatic backbone with multiple palladium binding sites to engineer the controlled synthesis and stabilization of ultrafine palladium nanoparticles (PdNPs). As-synthesized cage-embedded PdNPs have been characterized by transmission electron microscopy (TEM), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD). Inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry reveals that Pd@CC1(r) and Pd@CC2(r) have 40 and 25 wt% palladium loading, respectively. On the basis of TEM analysis, it has been estimated that as small as similar to 1.8 nm PdNPs could be stabilized inside the CC1(r), while larger CC2(r) could stabilize similar to 3.7 nm NPs. In contrast, reduction of palladium salts in the absence of the cages form structure less agglomerates. The well-dispersed cage-embedded NPs exhibit efficient catalytic performance in the cyanation of aryl halides under heterogeneous, additive-free condition. Moreover, these materials have excellent stability and recyclability without any agglomeration of PdNPs after several cycles.

砂质海底管土相互作用的数值模拟

利用有限元计算软件ABAQUS,分别采用非线性弹性模型、多孔弹性模型、Ramberg-Osgood弹塑性模型对管土系统进行有限元计算.构建了有限单元模型,并对接触面、约束方程进行了说明,分析了管道的沉降量、侧向阻力系数与管重间的关系,计算结果与有关的试验结果相吻合,具有可比性,表明对管土相互作用进行数值模拟是可行的.并得到了管道侧向失稳的判别准则,可为今后进一步的试验研究提供参考意见.

Directly-modulated DS-DBR tunable laser for uncooled C-band WDM system

A tunable DS-DBR laser is demonstrated for uncooled WDM C-band channel generation with tight spacing (SOGHz) and low thermal drift (±2.5GHz) up to 70°C. 2.5Gb/s direct modulation with transmission over a 75km link is achieved. © 2000 Optical Society of America.

考虑压头尖端曲率的弹塑性材料硬度的解答形式

结合近年来发表的对金属材料采用球形压头的微压痕实验结果及Johnson对应原理，讨论了在传统弹塑性理论下锥形压头在计及压头顶端曲率半径影响时硬度的解答形式。进而得出结论：压头尖端曲率半径不是引起尺度效应的根源，相反，它全使尺度效应减弱。

Prospección y caracterización preliminar in situ de tres especies de Pouteria en Nicaragua

Se colectaron Y caracterizaron 1,148 accesiones de Poutería Sapota Jacquin; Pouteria viridis Pittier y Poutería campechiana H.B.K. Provenientes de las cuatro regiones ecológicas en que se encuentra dividido el país. El estudio se estableció a través del Programa de Recursos Genéticos Nicaragüenses (REGEN), de la Universidad Nacional Agraria (UNA), Managua. De todas las accesiones solo se procesaron 290, ya que el resto presentaban caracteres incompletos. De este total, 33 accesiones eran de Pouteria campechiana H.B.K., 34 accesiones de Pouteria viridis Pittier, y 223 accesiones de Pouteria sapota Jacquin. Se observaron 18 descriptores, entre los cuales 9 son cuantitativos y 9 son cualitativos. Los datos se sometieron al paquete estadístico SAS (sistema de análisis estadístico) el que determinó los caracteres que influyen mayormente en la variabilidad de las especies del género Poutería como son, diámetro del árbol, altura del árbol, peso del fruto, peso de la semilla, número de semillas por fruto, forma del fruto textura de la pulpa, color de la pulpa, color de la cáscara. Después se realizó el análisis e interpretación de los agrupamientos (cluster) por el método WARD mínima varianza, resultando tres fenogramas, uno para cada especie del género Pouteria. Los fenogramas de Pouteria virídis Píttier, Pouteria sapota Jacquin y Pouteria campechiana H.B.K. Están formados por 6 agrupamientos cada uno con sus respectivos grados de similitud. El fenograma de Pouteria sapota Jacquin presentaba una mayor variabilidad de agrupamiento con 44 grupos (cluster) Los efemogramas mostraron la gran diversidad de características particulares de cada grupo. La existencia de grupos de árboles con similares características de diferentes regiones que mostraron el origen materno de éstos árboles capaces de adaptarse a diferentes sitios, manteniendo la mínima diferencia en sus características morfológicas y fisiológicas

High impulsivity predicting vulnerability to cocaine addiction in rats: some relationship with novelty preference but not novelty reactivity, anxiety or stress.

RATIONALE: Impulsivity is a vulnerability marker for drug addiction in which other behavioural traits such as anxiety and novelty seeking ('sensation seeking') are also widely present. However, inter-relationships between impulsivity, novelty seeking and anxiety traits are poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this paper was to investigate the contribution of novelty seeking and anxiety traits to the expression of behavioural impulsivity in rats. METHODS: Rats were screened on the five-choice serial reaction time task (5-CSRTT) for spontaneously high impulsivity (SHI) and low impulsivity (SLI) and subsequently tested for novelty reactivity and preference, assessed by open-field locomotor activity (OF), novelty place preference (NPP), and novel object recognition (OR). Anxiety was assessed on the elevated plus maze (EPM) both prior to and following the administration of the anxiolytic drug diazepam, and by blood corticosterone levels following forced novelty exposure. Finally, the effects of diazepam on impulsivity and visual attention were assessed in SHI and SLI rats. RESULTS: SHI rats were significantly faster to enter an open arm on the EPM and exhibited preference for novelty in the OR and NPP tests, unlike SLI rats. However, there was no dimensional relationship between impulsivity and either novelty-seeking behaviour, anxiety levels, OF activity or novelty-induced changes in blood corticosterone levels. By contrast, diazepam (0.3-3 mg/kg), whilst not significantly increasing or decreasing impulsivity in SHI and SLI rats, did reduce the contrast in impulsivity between these two groups of animals. CONCLUSIONS: This investigation indicates that behavioural impulsivity in rats on the 5-CSRTT, which predicts vulnerability for cocaine addiction, is distinct from anxiety, novelty reactivity and novelty-induced stress responses, and thus has relevance for the aetiology of drug addiction.

Prueba de envejecimiento acelerado para evaluar calidad de semillas de diferentes materiales genéticos de frijol (Phaseolus vulgaris L.)

El presente trabajo se realizó en Geneticos Nicaraguenses (REGEN) adscrito Nacional Agraria a finales de 1995 con el la Prueba de Envejecimiento Acelerado (PEA) el Programa a la Universidad propósito de utilizar de semillas como una herramienta más para evaluar vigor, atributo relacionado con la emergencia en campo y la almacenabilidad de las mismas. El estudio se realizó con seis variedades (dos mejoradas modernas y cuatro locales o tradicionales) sometidas a condiciones de envejecimiento acelerado a fin de diferenciar los genotipos en base a su comportamiento después de la prueba mencionada. Se evaluaron en laboratorio y en campo en un diseño completamente al azar, las variables siguientes: Germinación estándar. número de plantas emergidas. velocidad de emergencia, materia seca de plántulas y de raíces. Del análisis de los resultados se llego a las conclusiones siguientes: 1) De manera general. la PA permitió hacer una diferenciación entre los materiales estudiados: las variedades locales mostraron un comportamiento superior con relación a las mejoradas. 2) La variedad local "Chile" se vio menos afectada por la PEA considerándose como un material muy vigoroso y con alto potencial de almacenamiento. ) La reducción de la terminación inicial de las variedades locales después de la PEA fue hasta un 24%. en cambio para las mejoradas fue mayor de un 48%. 4)Las variables materia seca de plántula y de raíz no permitieron valorar objetivamente la calidad de las semillas debido a las variaciones observadas. 5) Al correlacionar los resultados de la Prueba de Germinación Estándar y de la PEA con la emergencia en campo, la primera mostró un mayor coeficiente de correlación (0.98 **)con relación a la segunda prueba (0.82*). 6) A fin de mejorar la metodología de la PEA se recomienda, para llegar a conclusiones más definitivas, uniformizar ciertos parámetros de las semillas de los materiales genéticos sujetos a estudio como son: Calidad fisiológica Inicial, contenido de humedad Inicial, condiciones previas de almacenamiento, color de testa, rugosidad etc.

Comportamiento de quince variedades de sorgo escobero (Sorghum vulgare, Pers. var. Technicum)

Con el objeto de estudiar el comportamiento de nuevas variedades de sorgo escobero introducidas al país; se aumento la semilla de cincuenta y cuatro variedades traídas de Argentina conservando su pureza genética por autopolinizacion; de ellas se seleccionaron catorce. Se hizo un ensayo con las variedades seleccionadas y una criolla como referencia. La siembra del ensayo se hizo en agosto de 1970, usando un diseño de bloques completos al azar con seis repeticiones para cada variedad y tres surcos de cinco metros de largo separados a 0.90 metros de distancia. Con una densidad de siembra de 2 kilogramos por hectárea, se depositaron las semillas al fondo del surco de 5 a 7 centímetros de profundidad. Fertilización al momento de la siembra con los niveles 100-50-50 kilogramos por hectárea de nitrógeno, fósforo y potasio, usando como fuente nitrato de amonio, triple superfosfato y muriato de potasio. Se practico un deshierbo a los quince días de la siembra y otro a los veinte y ocho días en que también se aplico Dipterex granulado al 2,5 por ciento, seis kilogramos por hectárea, para control de Spodoptera frugiperda J. a E. Smith. A los cincuenta y cuatro días se comenzó a tomar datos de los días a flor, a diez plantas del surco central, las que se dejaron etiquetadas para las siguientes observaciones. se cosecharon a los ciento veinte días después de la siembra las plantas etiquetadas y se observo: incidencia de Helminthosporium; altura de planta; producción de fibra producción de grano; longitud de panoja; tersura y conformación de la fibra en cada una de las plantas. Haciendo análisis estadístico a los resultados, se encontró que, no se puede decir que variedad es mejor, porque si alguna supera a las demás en cierta característica, otra sobresale en otras de las características. Se concluyo que las variedades Mf. R. S. y Mf. R. S. 1709, pueden sustituir a la variedad Criolla, por tener muchas ventajas sobre ella.

Em busca de uma participação mais efetiva do Congresso no processo de elaboração orçamentária

Aborda aspectos relacionados à pressão exercida pelos parlamentares federais para a inclusão de novas dotações na lei orçamentária anual (LOA), sem que seja realizada uma análise das políticas públicas propostas, de forma a priorizar aquelas que julgarem mais relevantes.