The PRO-AGE study: an international randomised controlled study of health risk appraisal for older persons based in general practice

BACKGROUND: This paper describes the study protocol, the recruitment, and base-line data for evaluating the success of randomisation of the PRO-AGE (PRevention in Older people-Assessment in GEneralists' practices) project. METHODS/DESIGN: A group of general practitioners (GPs) in London (U.K.), Hamburg (Germany) and Solothurn (Switzerland) were trained in risk identification, health promotion, and prevention in older people. Their non-disabled older patients were invited to participate in a randomised controlled study. Participants allocated to the intervention group were offered the Health Risk Appraisal for Older Persons (HRA-O) instrument with a site-specific method for reinforcement (London: physician reminders in electronic medical record; Hamburg: one group session or two preventive home visits; Solothurn: six-monthly preventive home visits over a two-year period). Participants allocated to the control group received usual care. At each site, an additional group of GPs did not receive the training, and their eligible patients were invited to participate in a concurrent comparison group. Primary outcomes are self-reported health behaviour and preventative care use at one-year follow-up. In Solothurn, an additional follow-up was conducted at two years. The number of older persons agreeing to participate (% of eligible persons) in the randomised controlled study was 2503 (66.0%) in London, 2580 (53.6%) in Hamburg, and 2284 (67.5%) in Solothurn. Base-line findings confirm that randomisation of participants was successful, with comparable characteristics between intervention and control groups. The number of persons (% of eligible) enrolled in the concurrent comparison group was 636 (48.8%) in London, 746 (35.7%) in Hamburg, and 1171 (63.0%) in Solothurn. DISCUSSION: PRO-AGE is the first large-scale randomised controlled trial of health risk appraisal for older people in Europe. Its results will inform about the effects of implementing HRA-O with different methods of reinforcement.

Probabilistic-based hurricane risk assessment and mitigation considering the potential impacts of climate change

Studies are suggesting that hurricane hazard patterns (e.g. intensity and frequency) may change as a consequence of the changing global climate. As hurricane patterns change, it can be expected that hurricane damage risks and costs may change as a result. This indicates the necessity to develop hurricane risk assessment models that are capable of accounting for changing hurricane hazard patterns, and develop hurricane mitigation and climatic adaptation strategies. This thesis proposes a comprehensive hurricane risk assessment and mitigation strategies that account for a changing global climate and that has the ability of being adapted to various types of infrastructure including residential buildings and power distribution poles. The framework includes hurricane wind field models, hurricane surge height models and hurricane vulnerability models to estimate damage risks due to hurricane wind speed, hurricane frequency, and hurricane-induced storm surge and accounts for the timedependant properties of these parameters as a result of climate change. The research then implements median insured house values, discount rates, housing inventory, etc. to estimate hurricane damage costs to residential construction. The framework was also adapted to timber distribution poles to assess the impacts climate change may have on timber distribution pole failure. This research finds that climate change may have a significant impact on the hurricane damage risks and damage costs of residential construction and timber distribution poles. In an effort to reduce damage costs, this research develops mitigation/adaptation strategies for residential construction and timber distribution poles. The costeffectiveness of these adaptation/mitigation strategies are evaluated through the use of a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis. In addition, a scenario-based analysis of mitigation strategies for timber distribution poles is included. For both residential construction and timber distribution poles, adaptation/mitigation measures were found to reduce damage costs. Finally, the research develops the Coastal Community Social Vulnerability Index (CCSVI) to include the social vulnerability of a region to hurricane hazards within this hurricane risk assessment. This index quantifies the social vulnerability of a region, by combining various social characteristics of a region with time-dependant parameters of hurricanes (i.e. hurricane wind and hurricane-induced storm surge). Climate change was found to have an impact on the CCSVI (i.e. climate change may have an impact on the social vulnerability of hurricane-prone regions).

INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT OF THE INVASIVE SPECIES CIRSIUM ARVENSE, CANADA THISTLE, AND PHRAGMITES AUSTRALIS, COMMON REED: USING ECOLOGICALLY BASED CONTROL MEASURES AT EACH STAGE OF THE INVASION PROCESS

Invasive plant species threaten natural areas by reducing biodiversity and altering ecosystem functions. They also impact agriculture by reducing crop and livestock productivity. Millions of dollars are spent on invasive species control each year, and traditionally, herbicides are used to manage invasive species. Herbicides have human and environmental health risks associated with them; therefore, it is essential that land managers and stakeholders attempt to reduce these risks by utilizing the principles of integrated weed management. Integrated weed management is a practice that incorporates a variety of measures and focuses on the ecology of the invasive plant to manage it. Roadways are high risk areas that have high incidence of invasive species. Roadways act as conduits for invasive species spread and are ideal harborages for population growth; therefore, roadways should be a primary target for invasive species control. There are four stages in the invasion process which an invasive species must overcome: transport, establishment, spread, and impact. The aim of this dissertation was to focus on these four stages and examine the mechanisms underlying the progression from one stage to the next, while also developing integrated weed management strategies. The target species were Phragmites australis, common reed, and Cisrium arvense, Canada thistle. The transport and establishment risks of P. australis can be reduced by removing rhizome fragments from soil when roadside maintenance is performed. The establishment and spread of C. arvense can be reduced by planting particular resistant species, e.g. Heterotheca villosa, especially those that can reduce light transmittance to the soil. Finally, the spread and impact of C. arvense can be mitigated on roadsides through the use of the herbicide aminopyralid. The risks associated with herbicide drift produced by application equipment can be reduced by using the Wet-Blade herbicide application system.

Routine vaccination against pertussis and the risk of childhood asthma: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND: In industrialized countries vaccination coverage remains suboptimal, partly because of perception of an increased risk of asthma. Epidemiologic studies of the association between childhood vaccinations and asthma have provided conflicting results, possibly for methodologic reasons such as unreliable vaccination data, biased reporting, and reverse causation. A recent review stressed the need for additional, adequately controlled large-scale studies. OBJECTIVE: Our goal was to determine if routine childhood vaccination against pertussis was associated with subsequent development of childhood wheezing disorders and asthma in a large population-based cohort study. METHODS: In 6811 children from the general population born between 1993 and 1997 in Leicestershire, United Kingdom, respiratory symptom data from repeated questionnaire surveys up to 2003 were linked to independently collected vaccination data from the National Health Service database. We compared incident wheeze and asthma between children of different vaccination status (complete, partial, and no vaccination against pertussis) by computing hazard ratios. Analyses were based on 6048 children, 23 201 person-years of follow-up, and 2426 cases of new-onset wheeze. RESULTS: There was no evidence for an increased risk of wheeze or asthma in children vaccinated against pertussis compared with nonvaccinated children. Adjusted hazard ratios comparing fully and partially vaccinated with nonvaccinated children were close to one for both incident wheeze and asthma. CONCLUSION: This study provides no evidence of an association between vaccination against pertussis in infancy and an increased risk of later wheeze or asthma and does not support claims that vaccination against pertussis might significantly increase the risk of childhood asthma.

Nutritional risk screening (NRS 2002): a new method based on an analysis of controlled clinical trials

A system for screening of nutritional risk is described. It is based on the concept that nutritional support is indicated in patients who are severely ill with increased nutritional requirements, or who are severely undernourished, or who have certain degrees of severity of disease in combination with certain degrees of undernutrition. Degrees of severity of disease and undernutrition were defined as absent, mild, moderate or severe from data sets in a selected number of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and converted to a numeric score. After completion, the screening system was validated against all published RCTs known to us of nutritional support vs spontaneous intake to investigate whether the screening system could distinguish between trials with a positive outcome and trials with no effect on outcome.

Domestic radon exposure and risk of childhood cancer: a prospective census-based cohort study

Background: In contrast with established evidence linking high doses of ionizing radiation with childhood cancer, research on low-dose ionizing radiation and childhood cancer has produced inconsistent results. Objective: We investigated the association between domestic radon exposure and childhood cancers, particularly leukemia and central nervous system (CNS) tumors. Methods: We conducted a nationwide census-based cohort study including all children < 16 years of age living in Switzerland on 5 December 2000, the date of the 2000 census. Follow-up lasted until the date of diagnosis, death, emigration, a child’s 16th birthday, or 31 December 2008. Domestic radon levels were estimated for each individual home address using a model developed and validated based on approximately 45,000 measurements taken throughout Switzerland. Data were analyzed with Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for child age, child sex, birth order, parents’ socioeconomic status, environmental gamma radiation, and period effects. Results: In total, 997 childhood cancer cases were included in the study. Compared with children exposed to a radon concentration below the median (< 77.7 Bq/m3), adjusted hazard ratios for children with exposure ≥ the 90th percentile (≥ 139.9 Bq/m3) were 0.93 (95% CI: 0.74, 1.16) for all cancers, 0.95 (95% CI: 0.63, 1.43) for all leukemias, 0.90 (95% CI: 0.56, 1.43) for acute lymphoblastic leukemia, and 1.05 (95% CI: 0.68, 1.61) for CNS tumors. Conclusions: We did not find evidence that domestic radon exposure is associated with childhood cancer, despite relatively high radon levels in Switzerland.

A fuzzy risk attitude classification based on prospect theory

Traditional methods do not actually measure peoples’ risk attitude naturally and precisely. Therefore, a fuzzy risk attitude classification method is developed. Since the prospect theory is usually considered as an effective model of decision making, the personalized parameters in prospect theory are firstly fuzzified to distinguish people with different risk attitudes, and then a fuzzy classification database schema is applied to calculate the exact value of risk value attitude and risk be- havior attitude. Finally, by applying a two-hierarchical clas- sification model, the precise value of synthetical risk attitude can be acquired.

Evaluation of a novel photography-based home assessment protocol for identification of environmental risk factors for falls in elderly persons

PRINCIPLES To evaluate the validity and feasibility of a novel photography-based home assessment (PhoHA) protocol, as a possible substitute for on-site home assessment (OsHA). METHODS A total of 20 patients aged ≥65 years who were hospitalised in a rehabilitation centre for musculoskeletal disorders affecting mobility participated in this prospective validation study. For PhoHA, occupational therapists rated photographs and measurements of patients' homes provided by patients' confidants. For OsHA, occupational therapists conducted a conventional home visit. RESULTS Information obtained by PhoHA was 79.1% complete (1,120 environmental factors identified by PhoHA vs 1416 by OsHA). Of the 1,120 factors, 749 had dichotomous (potential hazards) and 371 continuous scores (measurements with tape measure). Validity of PhoHA to potential hazards was good (sensitivity 78.9%, specificity 84.9%), except for two subdomains (pathways, slippery surfaces). Pearson's correlation coefficient for the validity of measurements was 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI 0.80-0.92, p <0.001). Agreement between methods was 0.52 (95%CI 0.34-0.67, p <0.001, Cohen's kappa coefficient) for dichotomous and 0.86 (95%CI 0.79-0.91, p <0.001, intraclass correlation coefficient) for continuous scores. Costs of PhoHA were 53.0% lower than those of OsHA (p <0.001). CONCLUSIONS PhoHA has good concurrent validity for environmental assessment if instructions for confidants are improved. PhoHA is potentially a cost-effective method for environmental assessment.

Exposure to Radio-Frequency Electromagnetic Fields From Broadcast Transmitters and Risk of Childhood Cancer: A Census-based Cohort Study

We investigated the association between exposure to radio-frequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMFs) from broadcast transmitters and childhood cancer. First, we conducted a time-to-event analysis including children under age 16 years living in Switzerland on December 5, 2000. Follow-up lasted until December 31, 2008. Second, all children living in Switzerland for some time between 1985 and 2008 were included in an incidence density cohort. RF-EMF exposure from broadcast transmitters was modeled. Based on 997 cancer cases, adjusted hazard ratios in the time-to-event analysis for the highest exposure category (>0.2 V/m) as compared with the reference category (<0.05 V/m) were 1.03 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.74, 1.43) for all cancers, 0.55 (95% CI: 0.26, 1.19) for childhood leukemia, and 1.68 (95% CI: 0.98, 2.91) for childhood central nervous system (CNS) tumors. Results of the incidence density analysis, based on 4,246 cancer cases, were similar for all types of cancer and leukemia but did not indicate a CNS tumor risk (incidence rate ratio = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.73, 1.46). This large census-based cohort study did not suggest an association between predicted RF-EMF exposure from broadcasting and childhood leukemia. Results for CNS tumors were less consistent, but the most comprehensive analysis did not suggest an association.

Review: Reducing Adolescent Sexual Risk: A Theoretical Guide for Developing and Adapting Curriculum-Based Programs

A review of Reducing Adolescent Sexual Risk: A Theoretical Guide for Developing and Adapting Curriculum-Based Programs by Douglas Kirby.

Institutionalizing Intensive Family Preservation Services: A Strategy for Creating Staffing Standards Based on Projections of At-Risk Children from Referral Sources

In spite of new legislation and much public and professional interest, intensive family preservation service (IFPS) remains in a vulnerable position as compared to other child welfare services. This article details a method to project ideal IFPS caseloads as a function of children who are at-risk for placement by various referral sources. Using this approach, resource allocation for IFPS can be more nearly on equal ground with the traditional child welfare functions and help IFPS to assume its needed place as a core service in the child welfare continuum.

Knowledge transfer in software-maintenance offshore outsourcing

Software-maintenance offshore outsourcing (SMOO) projects have been plagued by tedious knowledge transfer during the service transition to the vendor. Vendor engineers risk being over-strained by the high amounts of novel information, resulting in extra costs that may erode the business case behind offshoring. Although stakeholders may desire to avoid these extra costs by implementing appropriate knowledge transfer practices, little is known on how effective knowledge transfer can be designed and managed in light of the high cognitive loads in SMOO transitions. The dissertation at hand addresses this research gap by presenting and integrating four studies. The studies draw on cognitive load theory, attributional theory, and control theory and they apply qualitative, quantitative, and simulation methods to qualitative data from eight in-depth longitudinal cases. The results suggest that the choice of appropriate learning tasks may be more central to knowledge transfer than the amount of information shared with vendor engineers. Moreover, because vendor staff may not be able to and not dare to effectively self-manage learn-ing tasks during early transition, client-driven controls may be initially required and subsequently faded out. Collectively, the results call for people-based rather than codification-based knowledge management strategies in at least moderately specific and complex software environments.

Low-frequency drug-resistant HIV-1 and risk of virological failure to first-line NNRTI-based ART: a multicohort European case-control study using centralized ultrasensitive 454 pyrosequencing.

OBJECTIVES It is still debated if pre-existing minority drug-resistant HIV-1 variants (MVs) affect the virological outcomes of first-line NNRTI-containing ART. METHODS This Europe-wide case-control study included ART-naive subjects infected with drug-susceptible HIV-1 as revealed by population sequencing, who achieved virological suppression on first-line ART including one NNRTI. Cases experienced virological failure and controls were subjects from the same cohort whose viraemia remained suppressed at a matched time since initiation of ART. Blinded, centralized 454 pyrosequencing with parallel bioinformatic analysis in two laboratories was used to identify MVs in the 1%-25% frequency range. ORs of virological failure according to MV detection were estimated by logistic regression. RESULTS Two hundred and sixty samples (76 cases and 184 controls), mostly subtype B (73.5%), were used for the analysis. Identical MVs were detected in the two laboratories. 31.6% of cases and 16.8% of controls harboured pre-existing MVs. Detection of at least one MV versus no MVs was associated with an increased risk of virological failure (OR = 2.75, 95% CI = 1.35-5.60, P = 0.005); similar associations were observed for at least one MV versus no NRTI MVs (OR = 2.27, 95% CI = 0.76-6.77, P = 0.140) and at least one MV versus no NNRTI MVs (OR = 2.41, 95% CI = 1.12-5.18, P = 0.024). A dose-effect relationship between virological failure and mutational load was found. CONCLUSIONS Pre-existing MVs more than double the risk of virological failure to first-line NNRTI-based ART.