How to find natural reservoir hosts from endemic prevalence in a multi-host population : a case study of influenza in waterfowl

The transmission dynamics of infectious diseases critically depend on reservoir hosts, which can sustain the pathogen (or maintain the transmission) in the population even in the absence of other hosts. Although a theoretical foundation of the transmission dynamics in a multi-host population has been established, no quantitative methods exist for the identification of natural reservoir hosts. For a host to maintain the transmission alone, the host-specific reproduction number (U), interpreted as the average number of secondary transmissions caused by a single primary case in the host(s) of interest in the absence of all other hosts, must be greater than unity. If the host-excluded reproduction number (Q), representing the average number of secondary transmissions per single primary case in other hosts in the absence of the host(s) of interest, is below unity, transmission cannot be maintained in the multi-host population in the absence of the focal host(s).

The present study proposes a simple method for the identification of reservoir host(s) from observed endemic prevalence data across a range of host species. As an example, we analyze an aggregated surveillance dataset of influenza A virus in wild birds among which dabbling ducks exhibit higher prevalence compared to other bird species. Since the heterogeneous contact patterns between different host species are not directly observable, we test four different contact structures to account for the uncertainty. Meeting the requirements of U > 1 and Q < 1 for all four different contact structures, mallards and other dabbling ducks most likely constitute the reservoir community which plays a predominant role in maintaining the transmission of influenza A virus in the water bird population. We further discuss epidemiological issues which are concerned with the interpretation of influenza prevalence data, identifying key features to be fully clarified in the future.

Reservoir Management For Flood And Drought Protection Using Infinite Horizon Model Predictive Control

Model Predictive Control (MPC) is a control method that solves in real time an optimal control problem over a finite horizon. The finiteness of the horizon is both the reason of MPC's success and its main limitation. In operational water resources management, MPC has been in fact successfully employed for controlling systems with a relatively short memory, such as canals, where the horizon length is not an issue. For reservoirs, which have generally a longer memory, MPC applications are presently limited to short term management only. Short term reservoir management can be effectively used to deal with fast process, such as floods, but it is not capable of looking sufficiently ahead to handle long term issues, such as drought. To overcome this limitation, we propose an Infinite Horizon MPC (IH-MPC) solution that is particularly suitable for reservoir management. We propose to structure the input signal by use of orthogonal basis functions, therefore reducing the optimization argument to a finite number of variables, and making the control problem solvable in a reasonable time. We applied this solution for the management of the Manantali Reservoir. Manantali is a yearly reservoir located in Mali, on the Senegal river, affecting water systems of Mali, Senegal, and Mauritania. The long term horizon offered by IH-MPC is necessary to deal with the strongly seasonal climate of the region.

Evaluation Of Reservoir Model Integration With Deterministic And Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts

Due to the increase in water demand and hydropower energy, it is getting more important to operate hydraulic structures in an efficient manner while sustaining multiple demands. Especially, companies, governmental agencies, consultant offices require effective, practical integrated tools and decision support frameworks to operate reservoirs, cascades of run-of-river plants and related elements such as canals by merging hydrological and reservoir simulation/optimization models with various numerical weather predictions, radar and satellite data. The model performance is highly related with the streamflow forecast, related uncertainty and its consideration in the decision making. While deterministic weather predictions and its corresponding streamflow forecasts directly restrict the manager to single deterministic trajectories, probabilistic forecasts can be a key solution by including uncertainty in flow forecast scenarios for dam operation. The objective of this study is to compare deterministic and probabilistic streamflow forecasts on an earlier developed basin/reservoir model for short term reservoir management. The study is applied to the Yuvacık Reservoir and its upstream basin which is the main water supply of Kocaeli City located in the northwestern part of Turkey. The reservoir represents a typical example by its limited capacity, downstream channel restrictions and high snowmelt potential. Mesoscale Model 5 and Ensemble Prediction System data are used as a main input and the flow forecasts are done for 2012 year using HEC-HMS. Hydrometeorological rule-based reservoir simulation model is accomplished with HEC-ResSim and integrated with forecasts. Since EPS based hydrological model produce a large number of equal probable scenarios, it will indicate how uncertainty spreads in the future. Thus, it will provide risk ranges in terms of spillway discharges and reservoir level for operator when it is compared with deterministic approach. The framework is fully data driven, applicable, useful to the profession and the knowledge can be transferred to other similar reservoir systems.

Ecologia do fitoplâncton impactado por cultivo de tilápia do Nilo, oreochromis niloticus, em tanques-rede no açude Ministro João Alves, Parelhas, Rio Grande do Norte

The dams are limnic ecosystems of great importance for its multiple uses, among them, water supply for the public and to culture of artisanal fish are most relevant. The aim of the present study is to evaluate the physical-chemical characteristics and the phytoplankton community in two chosen sites (Point 1 littoral zone of point source; Point 2 pelagic zone of non-point source) of the Minister João Alves dam, which is also known as Boqueirão de Parelhas/RN. This represents the spatial distribution of the phytoplankton species in order to understand any possible alterations of the water quality and the phytoplankton composition in relation to the water quality originating from the impact of the tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus, culture. The study period also encompasses temporal variations exhibited in two seasons of an annual cycle, one during the dry season (Oct, Nov and Dec of 2008 and Jan of 2009), and the other rainy season (Mar, Apr, May and June of 2008) to extend the observation. The physicalchemical parameters, such as pH, temperature, electrical conductivity, concentration of dissolved oxygen were measured in situ and the values of the inorganic nutrients (nitrate, ammonium and orto-phosfato) and chlorophyll in the laboratory. The quali-quantitative analyses of the phytoplankton had been carried through sedimentation technique and the enumeration of the random of 400 cells, colonies and filaments counted using Sedgwick-Rafter counting chamber. The results of pH varied widely from the acidic to alkaline range with the minimum of 5.8 (± 0.8) and the maximum of 9.2 (± 0.7-0.8), at point 1 and 2. The dissolved oxygen content was higher in the rainy period than that in the dry period. The maximum electrical conductivity was of 1409 μScm-1 in point 1 and 431 minim of μScm-1, in point 2. There was a considerable alteration in the levels of inorganic nutrients such as nitrate-nitrogen, ammoniacal nitrogen and orthophosphate during the two cycles of study period. Phytoplankton assemblages presented a picture of alternate dominance among species Cyanobacteria, Bacillariophyceae and Chlorophyceae. The trophic state index diagnosed to the category of mesotrophic, which is based on the values of chlorophyll, total phosphorus and Secchi-disc measurements. The wind driven turbulence of the water column and the fresh inflow of water (flushing and dilution) during rainy season acted as constraint and did-not allow an exaggerated growth of the species of cyanobacteria. On the basis of the present we conclude that the culture of tilapias in cage-culture fails to produce pollution load that could compromise the quality of the water of the dam, probably be due to small dimension of the culture in relation to the size, volume of the water and the reservoir capacity support its own environment

Estudo comparativo da variação temporal da comunidade fitoplanctônica do açude Cruzeta inserido no bioma caatinga, Rio Grande do Norte

The Cruzeta impoundment, situated in the city of Cruzeta, hinterland of the state of the Rio Grande do Norte state has significant importance to the municipality as it represents the only source of supplying water to the region. It was hypothesized that the regional consequence of the global warming and the warming of surface water could substantially contribute the significant growth of the aquatic macrophytes in the years 2008-2009. The growth of these vegetation believed to be improved the degree of water transparency and as a consequence of the improved growth of phytoplankton species and chlorophyll biomass. At the same time the aquatic macrophyte could interact and compete potentially for the dissolved inorganic nutrients resources and the phytoplankton community. This study presents a comparison of years 2004-2005 when it did not have the expressive presence of the aquatic macrophyte community or restricted to the littoral region. In contrast, the years 2008-2009 showed a significant growth of the aquatic macrophyte in the Cruzeta/RN impoundments. The present study is an attempt to elucidate the significant presence of the aquatic macrophyte, Eichhornia crassipes, Ceratophyllum submersum, Nymphea sp and Pistia sp, and its interference on the ecology of phytoplankton. The samplings had been carried out from September of 2008 to April of 2009 and consistently between 10:00 h and 12:00 h with the aid of Van Dorn bottle and the plankton net of mesh size 20 Qm. The collections were made in three depths ie., surface, mid-column and bottom. The Physical-Chemical parameters such as pH, temperature, electrical conductivity and dissolved oxygen had been analyzed in situ. The samples for analysis of nutrients and chlorophyll were kept under refrigeration for posterior analysis in the laboratory. Phytoplankton samples were preserved in Lugol-iodine and kept for sedimentation for quali-quantitative analysis of phytoplankton. Enumeration of cells, colonies and filaments was done with the aid of Sedgwick-Rafter counting chamber and expressed as numbers/ml. Chlorophyll a was analyzed as a functional component of phytoplankton biomass and extracted with cold 90% acetone. The results indicate that the chlorophyll concentration varied between 5,65-8,08 Qg.L-1 for the dry period and 5,09-6,23 Qg.L-1 for the rainy period and showed considerable reduction when compared to the values to the 2004-2005 study period. The temperature was always presented higher in relation to the 2004-2005 study. Phytoplankton species showed a relative abundance of the Cyanophyceae for both the period of dry and rainy. The predominance species are filamentous Leptolymbya geophila Borzi (Planctolyngbya sp), Anabaena plankctônica Brunnthaler, Oscillatória limosa Ag. and Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii (Wolosz). The concentration of the nutrients such as nitrate and orto-phosfato had always presented higher values during the rainy period and the ammoniacal nitrogen retained moderate values in the dry period and a slight increase in rainy season. The main conclusions are the reduction of the concentration of chlorophyll, diversity of phytoplankton, and the increase in temperature and transparency of the water during the period of the study

Cyanobacteria and Cyanotoxin in the Billings Reservoir (São Paulo, SP, Brazil)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Nenneguya garavelli n. sp and Myxobolus peculiaris n. sp (Myxozoa : Myxobolidae) in the gills of Cyphocharax nagelli (Osteichthyes : Curimatidae) from Rio do Peixe Reservoir, Sao Jose do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, Brazil

The present work describes myxozoans found in Cyphocharax nagelli (Characiformes: Curimatinae) commonly called saguiru collected from Rio do Peixe Reservoir, Sao Jose do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, Brazil. From a total of 38 examined fish, 24 were infected with Henneguya garavelli n. sp. (63% prevalence) and two with Myxobolus peculiaris n. sp. (5% prevalence) in the gills. Spores were studied by staining and fresh spores were observed by differential interference contrast optics. Henneguya garavelli n. sp. differs from Henneguya iheringi , Henneguya occulta, Henneguya cesarpintoi, Henneguya santae, Henneguya pisciforme, Henneguya amazonica, Henneguya striolata, Henneguya leporinicola and Henneguya chydadea in spore length and from Henneguya travassosi, Henneguya adherens, Henneguya malabarica, Henneguya piaractus and also Henneguya chydadea in polar capsule length and tail length. Myxobolus peculiaris n. sp. was very different when compared to other species of Myxobolus in its morphology and the biggest size of spore body. The authors present tables with comparative measurements of Brazilian myxozoan parasites. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Description and prevalence of Thynnascaris sp. larvae Dollfus, 1933 (Nematoda: Anisakidae) in Plagioscion squamosissimus Heckel, 1840 from Volta Grande Reservoir, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil

O presente trabalho teve por objetivo o estudo da helmintofauna da corvina de água doce Plagioscion squamosissimus, do reservatório de Volta Grande, MG, Brasil. Foram colhidos 68 peixes com comprimento médio de 25,2 cm e peso médio de 180,9 g, com rede de espera, bimestralmente no período de dezembro de 1995 a dezembro de 1996. Os parasitos foram cuidadosamente retirados de seus cistos que estavam aderidos ao mesentério intestinal. Os espécimes foram fixados em AFA a 65°C e conservados em álcool 70°GL contendo 5% de glicerina. Após diafanização com ácido acético ou lactofenol de Amann, 21 nematóides foram desenhados em câmara clara. As larvas foram identificadas como Thynnascaris sp. (Nematoda: Anisakidae). Das 68 corvinas examinadas, 30 estavam infectadas por esses parasitos com uma prevalência de 44,1%. O número médio de parasitos por hospedeiro foi de 0 a 13,8 e a intensidade média, de 0 a 16. A análise estatística, de acordo com o Teste Exato de Fisher, mostrou que a sazonalidade foi dependente da pluviosidade e temperatura do ar.

Prevalence and histopathology of Neoechinorhynchus curemai Noronha, 1973 (Acanthocephala: Neoechinorhynchidae) in Prochilodus lineatus Valenciennes, 1836 from Volta Grande Reservoir, MG, Brazil

O presente trabalho estudou a prevalência e a histopatologia de Neoechinorhynchus curemai Noronha, 1973 (Acanthocephala: Neoechinorhynchidae) em curimbatá, Prochilodus lineatus Valenciennes, 1836. Dezoito peixes com comprimento total médio de 46,7 + 1,1 cm e peso médio de 1.674,8 + 75,6 g foram coletados com rede, bimestralmente, de dezembro de 1995 a dezembro de 1996 na usina hidrelétrica do Reservatório de Volta Grande (Cemig), Minas Gerais, Brasil. Dos peixes analisados, 15 estavam infectados com acantocéfalos no intestino (prevalência de 83,3%). A maior intensidade média ocorreu em agosto de 1996, com 66,5 (16 a 208) parasitos. A análise histopatológica revelou completa descamação do epitélio intestinal com severa hiperplasia e hipertrofia das células caliciformes. Observou-se, ainda, forte reação inflamatória na submucosa, deslocamento de feixes, associado a edemas, bem como infiltração mononuclear e eosinofílica.

Recent Studies on Neoechinorhynchus curemai Noronha, 1973 (Acanthocephala: Neoechinorhynchidae), in Prochilodus lineatus Valenciennes, 1836, from Volta Grande Reservoir, MG, Brazil

O presente trabalho estudou a helmintofauna do curimbatá, Prochilodus lineatus Valenciennes, 1836, do reservatório de Volta Grande, MG, Brasil. Foram analisados 18 peixes com comprimento médio de 46,7 ± 1,1 cm e peso médio de 1.674,8 ± 75,6 g, sendo que 15 apresentaram acantocéfalos no intestino com prevalência de 83,3%. O helminto foi identificado como Neoechinorhynchus curemai Noronha, 1973 (Acanthocephala: Neoechinorhynchidae), que diferiu das outras espécies descritas pelas dimensões dos caracteres e pela morfologia. da descrição original de N. curemai difere pelas maiores dimensões dos testículos, pela glândula de cimento alongada, pela presença de núcleos nos lemniscos, pelas dimensões dos ovos e pelos maiores ganchos da probóscide presentes na segunda e na terceira fileiras nos machos e na primeira fileira nas fêmeas. Foi observada menor porcentagem ocupada pelo sistema reprodutivo em relação ao tronco da fêmea. A observação dos parátipos de N. curemai de Noronha (1973) mostrou grande semelhança com os do presente trabalho. Este fato complementa a descrição do helminto em outra localidade.

Monitoramento de problemas com plantas aquáticas e caracterização da qualidade de água e sedimento na UHE Mogi-Guaçu

Este trabalho foi realizado na UHE Mogi-Guaçu, pertencente à AES Tietê S.A. Levantamento de plantas aquáticas e amostragem de água e sedimento foram realizados em julho de 2001 (estação seca), novembro de 2001 (início da estação chuvosa) e março de 2002 (final da estação chuvosa). Foram feitas 846 análises de água e 516 de sedimento, avaliando-se 47 características da água e 41 do sedimento. Espécies marginais e flutuantes foram as principais infestantes do reservatório, merecendo destaque as espécies Brachiaria subquadripara, Eichornia crassipes, Polygonum lapathifolium, Panicum rivulare, Salvinia auriculata e Pistia stratiotes. A turbidez e conseqüente baixa transmissão de luz pela coluna d'água impossibilitaram o desenvolvimento de plantas submersas. Teores de fósforo e nitrogênio encontrados tanto na água quanto no sedimento mostraram-se suficientes para suportar o crescimento de plantas aquáticas. A ocorrência de plantas marginais e flutuantes estava associada ao intenso processo de sedimentação observado no reservatório.