Climate and land-use changes effects on the distribution of a regional endemism: Melanophryniscus sanmartini (Amphibia, Bufonidae)

ABSTRACT Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrate group according to the IUCN. Land-use and land cover change (LULCC) and climate change (CC) are two of the main factors related to declining amphibian populations. Given the vulnerability of threatened and rare species, the study of their response to these impacts is a conservation priority. The aim of this work was to analyze the combined impact of LULCC and CC on the regionally endemic species Melanophryniscus sanmartini Klappenbach, 1968. This species is currently categorized as near threatened by the IUCN, and previous studies suggest negative effects of projected changes in climate. Using maximum entropy methods we modeled the effects of CC on the current and mid-century distribution of M. sanmartini under two IPCC scenarios - A2 (severe) and B2 (moderate). The effects of LULCC were studied by superimposing the potential distribution with current land use, while future distribution models were evaluated under the scenario of maximum expansion of soybean and afforestation in Uruguay. The results suggest that M. sanmartini is distributed in eastern Uruguay and the south of Brazil, mainly related to hilly and grasslands systems. Currently more than 10% of this species' distribution is superimposed by agricultural crops and exotic forest plantations. Contrasting with a recent modelling study our models suggest an expansion of the distribution of M. sanmartini by mid-century under both climate scenarios. However, despite the rise in climatically suitable areas for the species in the future, LULCC projections indicate that the proportion of modified habitats will occupy up to 25% of the distribution of M. sanmartini. Future change in climate conditions could represent an opportunity for M. sanmartini, but management measures are needed to mitigate the effects of habitat modification in order to ensure its survival and allow the eventual expansion of its distribution.

Semidiscretization and long-time asymptotics of nonlinear diffusion equations

We review several results concerning the long time asymptotics of nonlinear diffusion models based on entropy and mass transport methods. Semidiscretization of these nonlinear diffusion models are proposed and their numerical properties analysed. We demonstrate the long time asymptotic results by numerical simulation and we discuss several open problems based on these numerical results. We show that for general nonlinear diffusion equations the long-time asymptotics can be characterized in terms of fixed points of certain maps which are contractions for the euclidean Wasserstein distance. In fact, we propose a new scaling for which we can prove that this family of fixed points converges to the Barenblatt solution for perturbations of homogeneous nonlinearities for values close to zero.

Sensitivity of simulation results to competing SAM updates

Recently there has been a renewed research interest in the properties of non survey updates of input-output tables and social accounting matrices (SAM). Along with the venerable and well known scaling RAS method, several alternative new procedures related to entropy minimization and other metrics have been suggested, tested and used in the literature. Whether these procedures will eventually substitute or merely complement the RAS approach is still an open question without a definite answer. The performance of many of the updating procedures has been tested using some kind of proximity or closeness measure to a reference input-output table or SAM. The first goal of this paper, in contrast, is the proposal of checking the operational performance of updating mechanisms by way of comparing the simulation results that ensue from adopting alternative databases for calibration of a reference applied general equilibrium model. The second goal is to introduce a new updatin! g procedure based on information retrieval principles. This new procedure is then compared as far as performance is concerned to two well-known updating approaches: RAS and cross-entropy. The rationale for the suggested cross validation is that the driving force for having more up to date databases is to be able to conduct more current, and hopefully more credible, policy analyses.

Numerical schemes of diffusion asymptotics and moment closures for kinetic equations

We investigate different models that are intended to describe the small mean free path regime of a kinetic equation, a particular attention being paid to the moment closure by entropy minimization. We introduce a specific asymptotic-induced numerical strategy which is able to treat the stiff terms of the asymptotic diffusive regime. We evaluate on numerics the performances of the method and the abilities of the reduced models to capture the main features of the full kinetic equation.

Infinite time aggregation for the critical Patlak-Keller-Segel model in R2

We analyze the two-dimensional parabolic-elliptic Patlak-Keller-Segel model in the whole Euclidean space R2. Under the hypotheses of integrable initial data with finite second moment and entropy, we first show local in time existence for any mass of "free-energy solutions", namely weak solutions with some free energy estimates. We also prove that the solution exists as long as the entropy is controlled from above. The main result of the paper is to show the global existence of free-energy solutions with initial data as before for the critical mass 8 Π/Χ. Actually, we prove that solutions blow-up as a delta dirac at the center of mass when t→∞ keeping constant their second moment at any time. Furthermore, all moments larger than 2 blow-up as t→∞ if initially bounded.

The spatial inequality of wage income in Barcelona Metropolitan Area

ABSTRACT The measure and estimation of income levels in Barcelona Metropolitan Area (BMA) goes back a long way. Using different approaches and focusing on different municipalities, there is a lot of work in the field. The majority of the literature has focused on the estimation of income levels using variables related to consumption. The empirical evidence on wage differentials has shown an important growth during 80’s and 90’s especially in United Kingdom and USA. Less is known on spatial distribution of inequality. This paper presents a new data set for analyzing spatial distribution of wage income. This data is obtained by matching Wage Structure Survey (WSS) with data from Census disaggregated by census tracts. In this way we have a unique data set with wage incomes for every census track for 36 municipalities belonging to BMA. We develop a descriptive analysis of spatial distribution, testing for spatial autocorrelation and use the family of Generalised Entropy Indices to measure inequality. Properties of the index allow us to decompose inequality into inter and intra-municipality measures. Since we have two cross-sectional data for WSS (1995-2002) we can also analyze the evolution of the inequality in this period of economic growth. Key words: spatial distribution of wages, spatial autocorrelation, inequality indices.

Constructing a Social Accounting Matrix for Libya

In this paper a Social Accounting Matrix is constructed for Libya for the year 2000. The procedure was divided into three steps. First, a macro SAM was constructed to consistently capture and represent the macroeconomic framework of the Libyan economy in 2000. Second, that macro SAM was disaggregated into a micro SAM incorporating the accounts for individual activities, primary factors and the main economic institutions. But the SAM obtained in this way was not balanced. So in thE final step we balanced the SAM using a cross-entropy procedure in General Algebraic Modelling System (GAMS). This SAM integrates national income, inputoutput, flow-of-funds, and foreign trade statistics into a comprehensive and consistent dataset. The lack of coherent time series data for Libya is a serious obstacle for applied research that uses econometric analysis. Our main intension in constructing this SAM has been one of providing benchmark data for economy-wide analysis using CGE modelling for Libya.

Representació no-lineal de les imatges per a codificació perceptiva

JPEG2000 és un estàndard de compressió d’imatges que utilitza la transformada wavelet i, posteriorment, una quantificació uniforme dels coeficients amb dead-zone. Els coeficients wavelet presenten certes dependències tant estadístiques com visuals. Les dependències estadístiques es tenen en compte a l'esquema JPEG2000, no obstant, no passa el mateix amb les dependències visuals. En aquest treball, es pretén trobar una representació més adaptada al sistema visual que la que proporciona JPEG2000 directament. Per trobar-la utilitzarem la normalització divisiva dels coeficients, tècnica que ja ha demostrat resultats tant en decorrelació estadística de coeficients com perceptiva. Idealment, el que es voldria fer és reconvertir els coeficients a un espai de valors en els quals un valor més elevat dels coeficients impliqui un valor més elevat d'aportació visual, i utilitzar aquest espai de valors per a codificar. A la pràctica, però, volem que el nostre sistema de codificació estigui integrat a un estàndard. És per això que utilitzarem JPEG2000, estàndard de la ITU que permet una elecció de les distorsions en la codificació, i utilitzarem la distorsió en el domini de coeficients normalitzats com a mesura de distorsió per a escollir quines dades s'envien abans.

Rigorous derivation of a nonlinear diffusion equation as fast-reaction limit of a continuous coagulation-fragmentation model with diffusion

Weak solutions of the spatially inhomogeneous (diffusive) Aizenmann-Bak model of coagulation-breakup within a bounded domain with homogeneous Neumann boundary conditions are shown to converge, in the fast reaction limit, towards local equilibria determined by their mass. Moreover, this mass is the solution of a nonlinear diffusion equation whose nonlinearity depends on the (size-dependent) diffusion coefficient. Initial data are assumed to have integrable zero order moment and square integrable first order moment in size, and finite entropy. In contrast to our previous result [CDF2], we are able to show the convergence without assuming uniform bounds from above and below on the number density of clusters.

A mixed finite element method for nonlinear diffusion equations

We propose a mixed finite element method for a class of nonlinear diffusion equations, which is based on their interpretation as gradient flows in optimal transportation metrics. We introduce an appropriate linearization of the optimal transport problem, which leads to a mixed symmetric formulation. This formulation preserves the maximum principle in case of the semi-discrete scheme as well as the fully discrete scheme for a certain class of problems. In addition solutions of the mixed formulation maintain exponential convergence in the relative entropy towards the steady state in case of a nonlinear Fokker-Planck equation with uniformly convex potential. We demonstrate the behavior of the proposed scheme with 2D simulations of the porous medium equations and blow-up questions in the Patlak-Keller-Segel model.

Evaluating the influence of spatial uncertainty in locality points for species distributional modeling

1. Species distribution modelling is used increasingly in both applied and theoretical research to predict how species are distributed and to understand attributes of species' environmental requirements. In species distribution modelling, various statistical methods are used that combine species occurrence data with environmental spatial data layers to predict the suitability of any site for that species. While the number of data sharing initiatives involving species' occurrences in the scientific community has increased dramatically over the past few years, various data quality and methodological concerns related to using these data for species distribution modelling have not been addressed adequately. 2. We evaluated how uncertainty in georeferences and associated locational error in occurrences influence species distribution modelling using two treatments: (1) a control treatment where models were calibrated with original, accurate data and (2) an error treatment where data were first degraded spatially to simulate locational error. To incorporate error into the coordinates, we moved each coordinate with a random number drawn from the normal distribution with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of 5 km. We evaluated the influence of error on the performance of 10 commonly used distributional modelling techniques applied to 40 species in four distinct geographical regions. 3. Locational error in occurrences reduced model performance in three of these regions; relatively accurate predictions of species distributions were possible for most species, even with degraded occurrences. Two species distribution modelling techniques, boosted regression trees and maximum entropy, were the best performing models in the face of locational errors. The results obtained with boosted regression trees were only slightly degraded by errors in location, and the results obtained with the maximum entropy approach were not affected by such errors. 4. Synthesis and applications. To use the vast array of occurrence data that exists currently for research and management relating to the geographical ranges of species, modellers need to know the influence of locational error on model quality and whether some modelling techniques are particularly robust to error. We show that certain modelling techniques are particularly robust to a moderate level of locational error and that useful predictions of species distributions can be made even when occurrence data include some error.

A one-dimensional Keller-Segel equation with a drift issued from the boundary

We investigate in this note the dynamics of a one-dimensional Keller-Segel type model on the half-line. On the contrary to the classical configuration, the chemical production term is located on the boundary. We prove, under suitable assumptions, the following dichotomy which is reminiscent of the two-dimensional Keller-Segel system. Solutions are global if the mass is below the critical mass, they blow-up in finite time above the critical mass, and they converge to some equilibrium at the critical mass. Entropy techniques are presented which aim at providing quantitative convergence results for the subcritical case. This note is completed with a brief introduction to a more realistic model (still one-dimensional).

The multipoint Morisita index for the analysis of spatial patterns

In many fields, the spatial clustering of sampled data points has many consequences. Therefore, several indices have been proposed to assess the level of clustering affecting datasets (e.g. the Morisita index, Ripley's Kfunction and Rényi's generalized entropy). The classical Morisita index measures how many times it is more likely to select two measurement points from the same quadrats (the data set is covered by a regular grid of changing size) than it would be in the case of a random distribution generated from a Poisson process. The multipoint version (k-Morisita) takes into account k points with k >= 2. The present research deals with a new development of the k-Morisita index for (1) monitoring network characterization and for (2) detection of patterns in monitored phenomena. From a theoretical perspective, a connection between the k-Morisita index and multifractality has also been found and highlighted on a mathematical multifractal set.

Barcoding human physical activity to assess chronic pain conditions.

BACKGROUND: Modern theories define chronic pain as a multidimensional experience - the result of complex interplay between physiological and psychological factors with significant impact on patients' physical, emotional and social functioning. The development of reliable assessment tools capable of capturing the multidimensional impact of chronic pain has challenged the medical community for decades. A number of validated tools are currently used in clinical practice however they all rely on self-reporting and are therefore inherently subjective. In this study we show that a comprehensive analysis of physical activity (PA) under real life conditions may capture behavioral aspects that may reflect physical and emotional functioning.¦METHODOLOGY: PA was monitored during five consecutive days in 60 chronic pain patients and 15 pain-free healthy subjects. To analyze the various aspects of pain-related activity behaviors we defined the concept of PA 'barcoding'. The main idea was to combine different features of PA (type, intensity, duration) to define various PA states. The temporal sequence of different states was visualized as a 'barcode' which indicated that significant information about daily activity can be contained in the amount and variety of PA states, and in the temporal structure of sequence. This information was quantified using complementary measures such as structural complexity metrics (information and sample entropy, Lempel-Ziv complexity), time spent in PA states, and two composite scores, which integrate all measures. The reliability of these measures to characterize chronic pain conditions was assessed by comparing groups of subjects with clinically different pain intensity.¦CONCLUSION: The defined measures of PA showed good discriminative features. The results suggest that significant information about pain-related functional limitations is captured by the structural complexity of PA barcodes, which decreases when the intensity of pain increases. We conclude that a comprehensive analysis of daily-life PA can provide an objective appraisal of the intensity of pain.