Financial health, exports, and rm survival: Evidence from UK and French firms

We use firm level data to assess the role of exporting in the link between financial health and rm survival. The data are for the UK and France. We examine whether fi rms at diff erent stages of export activity (starters, exiters, continuers, switchers) react di fferently to changes in financial variables. In general, export starters and exiters experience much stronger adverse e ffects of fi nancial constraints for their survival prospects. By contrast, the exit probability of continuous exporters and export switchers is less negatively a ffected by financial characteristics. These relationships between exporting, finance and survival are broadly similar in the British and French sub-samples.

Growth and Survival Determinants of Chinese Private Firms: Fieldwork evidence and econometric estimates

This paper reports on one of the first empirical attempts to investigate small firm growth and survival, and their determinants, in the Peoples’ Republic of China. The work is based on field work evidence gathered from a sample of 83 Chinese private firms (mainly SMEs) collected initially by face-to-face interviews, and subsequently by follow-up telephone interviews a year later. We extend the models of Gibrat (1931) and Jovanovic (1982), which traditionally focus on size and age alone (e.g. Brock and Evans, 1986), to a ‘comprehensive’ growth model with two types of additional explanatory variables: firm-specific (e.g. business planning); and environmental (e.g. choice of location). We estimate two econometric models: a ‘basic’ age-size-growth model; and a ‘comprehensive’ growth model, using Heckman’s two-step regression procedure. Estimation is by log-linear regression on cross-section data, with corrections for sample selection bias and heteroskedasticity. Our results refute a pure Gibrat model (but support a more general variant) and support the learning model, as regards the consequences of size and age for growth; and our extension to a comprehensive model highlights the importance of location choice and customer orientation for the growth of Chinese private firms. In the latter model, growth is explained by variables like planning, R&D orientation, market competition, elasticity of demand etc. as well as by control variables. Our work on small firm growth achieves two things. First, it upholds the validity of ‘basic’ size-age-growth models, and successfully applies them to the Chinese economy. Second, it extends the compass of such models to a ‘comprehensive’ growth model incorporating firm-specific and environmental variables.

Evaluating the usefulness of forecasts of relative growth

Forecasts of differences in growth between countries serve an important role in the justification of governments’ fiscal policy stances, but are not tested for their accuracy as part of the current range of forecast evaluation methods. This paper examines forecasted and outturn growth differentials between countries to identify if there is usefulness in forecasts of “relative” growth. Using OECD forecasts and outturn values for GDP growth for (combinations of) the G7 countries between 1984 and 2010, the paper finds that the OECD’s success in predicting the relative growth of G7 countries during this period is good. For each two-country combination results indicate that relative growth forecasts are less useful for countries which have smaller outturn growth differentials.

Age, Life-satisfaction, and Relative Income – Insights from the UK and Germany

We first confirm previous results with the German Socio-Economic Panel by Layard et al. (2010), and obtain strong negative effects of comparison income. However, when we split the sample by age, we find quite different results for reference income. The effects on lifesatisfaction are positive and significant for those under 45, consistent with Hirschman’s (1973) ‘tunnel effect’, and only negative (and larger than in the full sample) for those over 45, when relative deprivation dominates. Thus for young respondents, reference income’s signalling role, indicating potential future prospects, can outweigh relative deprivation effects. Own-income effects are also larger for the older sample, and of greater magnitude than the comparison income effect. In East Germany the reference income effects are insignificant for all. With data from the British Household Panel Survey, we confirm standard results when encompassing all ages, but reference income loses significance in both age groups, and most surprisingly, even own income becomes insignificant for those over 45, while education has significant negative effects.

Firm survival, uncertainty and financial frictions: Is there a financial uncertainty accelerator?

Using a large panel of unquoted UK over the period 2000-09, we examine the impact of firm-specific uncertainty on corporate failures. In this context we also distinguish between firms which are likely to be more or less dependant on bank finance as well as public and non-public companies. Our results document a significant effect of uncertainty on firm survival. This link is found to be more potent during the recent financial crisis compared with tranquil periods. We also uncover significant firm-level heterogeneity since the survival chance of bank-dependent and non-public firms are most affected by changes in uncertainty, especially during the recent global financial crisis.

Firm survival, uncertainty and financial frictions: Is there a financial uncertainty accelerator?

Using a large panel of unquoted UK firms over the period 2000-09, we examine the impact of firm-specific uncertainty on corporate failures. In this context we also distinguish between firms which are likely to be more or less dependent on bank finance as well as public and non-public companies. Our results document a significant effect of uncertainty on firm survival. This link is found to be more potent during the recent financial crisis compared with tranquil periods. We also uncover significant firm-level heterogeneity since the survival chances of bank-dependent and non-public firms are most affected by changes in uncertainty, especially during the recent global financial crisis.

Influence of temperature on survival, growth and fecundity of the freshwater snail Indoplanorbis exustus (Deshayes)

To note the effect of temperature on survival, growth and fecundity, newly hatched (zero day old) snails Indoplanorbis exustus were cultured at 10 degrees, 15 degrees, 20 degrees, 25 degrees, 30 degrees and 35 degreescentigrades constant temperatures and room temperature (17.5 degrees - 32.5 degrees centigrades). Individuals exposed to 10 degrees centigrades died within 3 days while those reared at 15 degrees, 20 degrees, 25 degrees, 30 degrees, 35 degrees centigrades and room temperature survived for a period of 6, 27, 18, 16, 12 and 17 weeks respectively. An individual added on an average 0.21 mm and 0.45 mg, 0.35 mm and 7.94 mg, 0.63 mm and 15.5 mg, 0.81 mm and 27.18 mg, 1.07 mm and 41.48 mg and 0.78 mm and 31.2 mg to the shell diameter and body weight respectively at those temperatures per week. The snails cultured at 15 degrees centigrades died prior to attainment of sexual maturity. On an average, an individual produced 31.9 and 582.77, 54.86 and 902.18, 56.01 and 968.45, 49.32 and 798.68 and 62.34 and 1143.97 capsules and eggs respectively at 20 degrees, 25 degrees, 30 degrees, 35 degrees centigrades and room temperature (17.5 degrees - 32.5 degrees centigrades).

Anti-tumor necrosis factor drug survival in axial spondyloarthritis is independent of the classification criteria.

To compare the impact of meeting specific classification criteria [modified New York (mNY), European Spondyloarthropathy Study Group (ESSG), and Assessment of SpondyloArthritis international Society (ASAS) criteria] on anti-tumor necrosis factor (anti-TNF) drug retention, and to determine predictive factors of better drug survival. All patients fulfilling the ESSG criteria for axial spondyloarthritis (SpA) with available data on the axial ASAS and mNY criteria, and who had received at least one anti-TNF treatment were retrospectively retrieved in a single academic institution in Switzerland. Drug retention was computed using survival analysis (Kaplan-Meier), adjusted for potential confounders. Of the 137 patients classified as having axial SpA using the ESSG criteria, 112 also met the ASAS axial SpA criteria, and 77 fulfilled the mNY criteria. Drug retention rates at 12 and 24 months for the first biologic therapy were not significantly different between the diagnostic groups. Only the small ASAS non-classified axial SpA group (25 patients) showed a nonsignificant trend toward shorter drug survival. Elevated CRP level, but not the presence of bone marrow edema on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans, was associated with significantly better drug retention (OR 7.9, ICR 4-14). In this cohort, anti-TNF drug survival was independent of the classification criteria. Elevated CRP level, but not positive MRI, was associated with better drug retention.

Relative susceptibility of different stages of Rhodinius Prolixus to the entomopathogenic Hyphomycete Beauveria Bassiana

Laboratory bioassays were conducted to determine the relative suscepbility of eggs, 1st-, 3rd-, 5th- instar nymphs and adults of Rhodnius prolixus to one isolate of the entomopathogenic hyphomycete, Beauveria bassiana. Treatments consisted of directly spraying on insects of increasing doses of inoculum (3 x 10* to 3 x 10 (elevated to 5th potency) conidia per cm*). Mortality due to all doses of conidia was very high in the five tested stages of the target insect. Experiments on eggs demonstrated that the fungal isolate was able to kill eggs before they hatched. Both time-mortality and dose-mortality responses showed that the susceptibility of R. prolixus varied according to its stage of development and increased with age. As matter of fact, at the dose of 3 x 10* conidia per cm*, LD50 varied between 11.2 days in 1st-instar nymphs and 6.4 days in both 5th-instar nymphs and adults. Comparison of LD50 permitted to estimate that 1st-instar nymphs were about 700-fold less susceptible than the two oldest stages

Plasma Level of Mmp-9 as Predictive Factor for Response and Progression Free Survival in Patients Treated with Bevacizumab (Bev) and Pegylated Liposomal Doxorubicin (Pld): Sakk 24/06

Background: There is currently no identified marker predicting benefit from Bev in patients with breast cancer (pts). We monitored prospectively 6 angiogenesis-related factors in the blood of advanced stage pts treated with a combination of Bev and PLD in a phase II trial of the Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research, SAKK.Methods: Pts received PLD (20 mg/m2) and Bev (10 mg/kg) every 2 weeks for a maximum of 12 administrations, followed by Bev monotherapy until progression or severe toxicity. Blood samples were collected at baseline, during treatment and at treatment discontinuation. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (Quantikine, R&DSystems and Reliatech) were used to measure vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), placental growth factor (PlGF), matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP-9) and soluble VEGF receptors -1, -2 and -3. The natural log-transformed (ln) data for each factor was analyzed by analysis of variance (ANOVA) model to investigate differences between the mean values of the subgroups of interest (where a = 0.05), based on the best tumor response by RECIST.Results: 132 samples were collected in 41 pts. The mean of baseline ln MMP-9 levels was significantly lower in pts with tumor progression than those with tumor response (p=0.0202, log fold change=0.8786) or disease control (p=0.0035, log fold change=0.8427). Higher MMP-9 level was a significant predictor of superior progression free survival (PFS): p=0.0417, hazard ratio=0.574, 95% CI=0.336-0.979. In a multivariate cox proportional hazards model, containing performance status, disease free interval, number of tumor sites, visceral involvement and prior adjuvant chemotherapy, using stepwise regression baseline MMP-9 was still a statistically 117P Table 1. SOLTI-0701* AC01B07* NU07B1* SOR+CAP N=20 PL+CAP N=33 SOR+ GEM/CAP N=23 PL+ GEM/CAP N=27 SOR+PAC N=48 PL+PAC N=46 Baseline characteristics Age, median (range), y 49 (32-72) 53 (30-78 54 (32-69) 57 (31-82) 50 (27-80) 52 (23-74) AJCC stage, n (%) IIIB/IIIC 3 (15) 6 (18) 0 (0) 3 (11) 8 (17) 9 (20) IV 17 (85) 27 (82) 23 (100) 24 (89) 40 (83) 37 (80) Metastatic site, n (%) Non-visceral 3 (15) 6 (18) 7 (30) 6 (22) 9 (19) 17 (37) Visceral 17 (85) 27 (82) 16 (70) 21 (78) 39 (81) 29 (63) Prior metastatic chemo, n (%) 8 (40) 15 (45) 21 (91) 25 (93) - - Efficacy PFS, median, mo 4.3 2.5 3.1 2.6 5.6 5.5 HR (95% CI)_ 0.60 (0.31, 1.14) 0.57 (0.30, 1.09) 0.86 (0.50, 1.45) 1-sided P value_ 0.055 0.044 0.281 Overall survival, median, mo 17.5 16.1 Pending 14.7 18.2 HR (95% CI)_ 0.98 (0.50, 1.89) 1.11 (0.64, 1.94) 1-sided P value_ 0.476 0.352 Safety N=20 N=33 N=22 N=27 N=46 N=46 Tx-emergent Grade 3/4, n (%) 15 (75) 16 (48) 20 (91) 17 (63) 36 (78) 16 (35) Grade 3§ hand-foot skin reaction/ syndrome 8 (40) 5 (15) 8 (36) 0 (0) 14 (30) 2 (4) *Efficacy results based on intent-to-treat population and safety results based on safety population (pts who received study drug[s]); _Cox regression within each subgroup; _log-rank test within each subgroup; §maximum toxicity grade for hand-foot skin reaction/syndrome; AJCC, American Joint Committee on Cancer mittedabstractsª The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com Downloaded from annonc.oxfordjournals.org at Bibliotheque Cantonale et Universitaire on June 6, 2011 significant factor (p=0.0266). The results of the other measured factors were presented elsewhere.Conclusions: Higher levels of MMP-9 could predict tumor response and superior PFSin pts treated with a combination of Bev and PLD. These exploratory results justify further investigations of MMP-9 in pts treated with Bev combinations in order to assess its role as a prognostic and predictive factor.Disclosure: K. Zaman: Participation in advisory board of Roche; partial sponsoring ofthe study by Roche (the main sponsor was the Swiss Federation against Cancer (Oncosuisse)). B. Thu¨rlimann: stock of Roche; Research grants from Roche. R. vonMoos: Participant of Advisory Board and Speaker honoraria

Comparable Survival Between HIV+ and HIV- non-Hodgkin and Hodgkin Lymphoma Patients Undergoing Autologous Peripheral Blood Stem Cell Transplantation.

Autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) has been successfully used in HIV-related lymphoma (HIV-Ly) patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy. We report the first comparative analysis between HIV-Ly and a matched cohort of HIV(-) lymphoma patients. This retrospective European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation study included 53 patients (66% non-Hodgkin and 34% Hodgkin lymphoma) within each cohort. Both groups were comparable except for the higher proportion of males, mixed-cellularity Hodgkin lymphoma and patients receiving granulocyte colony-stimulating factor before engraftment and a smaller proportion receiving total body irradiation-based conditioning within the HIV-Ly cohort. Incidence of relapse, overall survival, and progression-free survival were similar in both cohorts. A higher nonrelapse mortality within the first year after ASCT was observed in the HIV-Ly group (8% vs 2%), predominantly because of early bacterial infections, although this was not statistically significant and did not influence survival. Thus, within the highly active antiretroviral therapy era, HIV patients should be considered for ASCT according to the same criteria adopted for HIV(-) lymphoma patients.

MMP-9 as predictive factor for response and progression free survival in breast cancer patients treated with bevacizumab and pegylated liposomal doxorubicin. A multicenter, single-arm phase II trial (SAKK24/06). On behalf of the Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research (SAKK).

The benefit of bevacizumab (Bv) has been shown in different tumors including colorectal cancer, renal cancer, pulmonary non-small cell cancer and also breast cancer. However to date, there is no established test evaluating the angiogenic status of a patient and monitoring the effects of anti-angiogenic treatments. Tumor angiogenesis is the result of a balance between multiple pro- and anti¬angiogenic molecules. There is very little published clinical data exploring the impact of the anti-angiogenic therapy on the different angiogenesis-related molecules and the potential role of these molecules as prognostic or predictive factors.

Pseudoprogression after high-dose busulfan-thiotepa with autologous stem cell transplantation and radiation therapy in children with brain tumor: impact on survival

Objective: To demonstrate the incidence, time course, predisposing factor and reversibility of neurotoxicity in children with brain tumors treated with high dose busulfan-thiotepa with autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) and radiation therapy in our institutional experience.Materials and Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data. Between May 1988 and May 2007, 110 patients, median age 3.6 years (range, 1 months-15.3 years), with brain tumors were treated with surgical intervention and conventional chemotherapy. All patients received one course of high-dose busulfan-thiotepa with stem cell rescue, followed or preceded by radiotherapy.Results: Twenty-three patients (21%) developed neuroradiological abnormalities on follow-up imaging studies at a median time of 9.2 months (range, 5.6-17.3 months) after day 0 of ASCT. All MRI-lesions appeared in patients receiving radiotherapy after ASCT and were localized inside the 50-55 Gy isodoses. They disappeared in 14 of 23 patients with a median time of 8 months (range, 3-17 months). The presence of MRI-abnormalities was a favorable prognostic factor for overall survival on univariate analysis (hazard ratio: 0.12, 95% confidence interval [0.04, 0.33]), with a 5-year overall survival in patients with MRI-abnormalities of 84% (95% CI, 62-94), comparedto 27% (95% CI, 19-37) in those without lesions. On multivariate analysis, the presence of MRI-abnormalities was an independent prognostic factor for overall survival.Conclusion: MRI-detectable brain abnormalities are common early findings in children treated with high-dose busulfan-thiotepa followed by radiation therapy, and may mimic early tumor recurrence. They are correlated with a better outcome.