Climate Variability and Extremes during the Past 100 Years

Large progress has been made in the past few years towards quantifying and understanding climate variability during past centuries. At the same time, present-day climate has been studied using state-of-the-art data sets and tools with respect to the physical and chemical mechanisms governing climate variability. Both the understanding of the past and the knowledge of the processes are important for assessing and attributing the anthropogenic effect on present and future climate. The most important time period in this context is the past approximately 100 years, which comprises large natural variations and extremes (such as long droughts) as well as anthropogenic influences, most pronounced in the past few decades. Recent and ongoing research efforts steadily improve the observational record of the 20th century, while atmospheric circulation models are used to underpin the mechanisms behind large climatic variations. Atmospheric chemistry and composition are important for understanding climate variability and change, and considerable progress has been made in the past few years in this field. The evolving integration of these research areas in a more comprehensive analysis of recent climate variability was reflected in the organisation of a workshop “Climate variability and extremes in the past 100 years” in Gwatt near Thun (Switzerland), 24–26 July 2006. The aim of this workshop was to bring together scientists working on data issues together with statistical climatologists, modellers, and atmospheric chemists to discuss gaps in our understanding of climate variability during the past approximately 100 years.

Global warming in an independent record of the past 130 years

The thermometer-based global surface temperature time series (GST) commands a prominent role in the evidence for global warming, yet this record has considerable uncertainty. An independent record with better geographic coverage would be valuable in understanding recent change in the context of natural variability. We compiled the Paleo Index (PI) from 173 temperature-sensitive proxy time series (corals, ice cores, speleothems, lake and ocean sediments, historical documents). Each series was normalized to produce index values of change relative to a 1901–2000 base period; the index values were then averaged. From 1880 to 1995, the index trends significantly upward, similar to the GST. Smaller-scale aspects of the GST including two warming trends and a warm interval during the 1940s are also observed in the PI. The PI extends to 1730 with 67 records. The upward trend appears to begin in the early 19th century but the year-to-year variability is large and the 1730–1929 trend is small.

Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia

Past global climate changes had strong regional expression. To elucidate their spatio-temporal pattern, we reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia. The most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century. At multi-decadal to centennial scales, temperature variability shows distinctly different regional patterns, with more similarity within each hemisphere than between them. There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age, but all reconstructions show generally cold conditions between ad 1580 and 1880, punctuated in some regions by warm decades during the eighteenth century. The transition to these colder conditions occurred earlier in the Arctic, Europe and Asia than in North America or the Southern Hemisphere regions. Recent warming reversed the long-term cooling; during the period ad 1971–2000, the area-weighted average reconstructed temperature was higher than any other time in nearly 1,400 years.

The past ecology of Abies alba provides new perspectives on future responses of silver fir forests to global warming

Paleoecology can provide valuable insights into the ecology of species that complement observation and experiment-based assessments of climate impact dynamics. New paleoecological records (e.g., pollen, macrofossils) from the Italian Peninsula suggest a much wider climatic niche of the important European tree species Abies alba (silver fir) than observed in its present spatial range. To explore this discrepancy between current and past distribution of the species, we analyzed climatic data (temperature, precipitation, frost, humidity, sunshine) and vegetation-independent paleoclimatic reconstructions (e.g., lake levels, chironomids) and use global coupled carbon-cycle climate (NCAR CSM1.4) and dynamic vegetation (LandClim) modeling. The combined evidence suggests that during the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago), prior to humanization of vegetation, A. alba formed forests under conditions that exceeded the modern (1961-1990) upper temperature limit of the species by 5-7°C (July means). Annual precipitation during this natural period was comparable to today (>700-800 mm), with drier summers and wetter winters. In the meso-Mediterranean to sub-Mediterranean forests A. alba co-occurred with thermophilous taxa such as Quercus ilex, Q. pubescens, Olea europaea, Phillyrea, Arbutus, Cistus, Tilia, Ulmus, Acer, Hedera helix, Ilex aquifolium, Taxus, and Vitis. Results from the last interglacial (ca. 130 000-115 000 BP), when human impact was negligible, corroborate the Holocene evidence. Thermophilous Mediterranean A. alba stands became extinct during the last 5000 years when land-use pressure and specifically excessive anthropogenic fire and browsing disturbance increased. Our results imply that the ecology of this key European tree species is not yet well understood. On the basis of the reconstructed realized climatic niche of the species, we anticipate that the future geographic range of A. alba may not contract regardless of migration success, even if climate should become significantly warmer than today with summer temperatures increasing by up to 5-7°C, as long as precipitation does not fall below 700-800 mm/yr, and anthropogenic disturbance (e.g., fire, browsing) does not become excessive. Our finding contradicts recent studies that projected range contractions under global-warming scenarios, but did not factor how millennia of human impacts reduced the realized climatic niche of A. alba.

Intensive Family Preservation Services: A Short History but a Long Past

Intensive family preservation services (IFPS) is a program model that has been disseminated widely throughout the country, and has received federal recognition and monetary support since the early 1980s. Recently, IFPS has been criticized for seemingly being unable to prevent out-of-home placements. The authors contend that many evaluators and policy analysts have lost sight of the historical roots of IFPS, and are focusing only on recent fiscal and policy contexts when assessing IFPS program effectiveness. This article reviews the therapeutic and programmatic origins of IFPS including desired treatment outcomes, and suggests that evaluators and policy analysts redirect their focus accordingly.

Placing unprecedented recent fir growth in a European-wide and Holocene-long context

Forest decline played a pivotal role in motivating Europe's political focus on sustainability around 35 years ago. Silver fir (Abies alba) exhibited a particularly severe dieback in the mid-1970s, but disentangling biotic from abiotic drivers remained challenging because both spatial and temporal data were lacking. Here, we analyze 14 136 samples from living trees and historical timbers, together with 356 pollen records, to evaluate recent fir growth from a continent-wide and Holocene-long perspective. Land use and climate change influenced forest growth over the past millennium, whereas anthropogenic emissions of acidic sulfates and nitrates became important after about 1850. Pollution control since the 1980s, together with a warmer but not drier climate, has facilitated an unprecedented surge in productivity across Central European fir stands. Restricted fir distribution prior to the Mesolithic and again in the Modern Era, separated by a peak in abundance during the Bronze Age, is indicative of the long-term interplay of changing temperatures, shifts in the hydrological cycle, and human impacts that have shaped forest structure and productivity.

A 2600-year record of past polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) deposition at Holzmaar (Eifel, Germany)

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a proxy for climate- and human-related historical fire activity which has rarely been used beyond 1800 AD. We explored the concentration and composition patterns of PAHs together with other proxies (charcoal, C, N, S, δ13C, δ15N, and δ34S) in a sediment core of Holzmaar as indicators of variations in climate and anthropogenic activity over the past 2600 years. The concentrations of pyrogenic PAHs remained low (< 500 ng g− 1) from the pre-Roman Iron Age (600 BC) until the first significant increases to ca. 1000–1800 ng g− 1 between 1700 and 1750 AD related to regional iron production. The highest increases in pyrogenic PAH concentrations occurred with industrialization peaking in the 1960s. PAH concentrations in most recent sediments decreased to pre-industrial levels because of emission control measures and the switch from coal to oil and gas as major fuel sources. Fluxes of PAHs (mg km− 2 yr− 1) increased in the order Migration Period and Early Middle Ages < pre-Roman Iron Ages < Roman era < High Middle Ages and Renaissance < pre-industrial modern period < industrial modern period. The changes of PAHs fluxes in pre-industrial times parallel known changes in local, regional and continental anthropogenic activity and climatic variations or their interactions across these historical periods. Perylene, a mainly biologically produced compound, was the dominant PAH in pre-industrial times. The Migration Period and the Early Middle Ages witnessed the most profound and simultaneous changes to the sedimentary organic matter properties in the past 2600 years including the lowest PAH fluxes because of reduced human activity and more negative δ13C and δ15N values probably in response to colder and wetter conditions.

Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium

The Earth’s climate system is driven by a complex interplay of internal chaotic dynamics and natural and anthropogenic external forcing. Recent instrumental data have shown a remarkable degree of asynchronicity between Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere temperature fluctuations, thereby questioning the relative importance of internal versus external drivers of past as well as future climate variability1, 2, 3. However, large-scale temperature reconstructions for the past millennium have focused on the Northern Hemisphere4, 5, limiting empirical assessments of inter-hemispheric variability on multi-decadal to centennial timescales. Here, we introduce a new millennial ensemble reconstruction of annually resolved temperature variations for the Southern Hemisphere based on an unprecedented network of terrestrial and oceanic palaeoclimate proxy records. In conjunction with an independent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction ensemble5, this record reveals an extended cold period (1594–1677) in both hemispheres but no globally coherent warm phase during the pre-industrial (1000–1850) era. The current (post-1974) warm phase is the only period of the past millennium where both hemispheres are likely to have experienced contemporaneous warm extremes. Our analysis of inter-hemispheric temperature variability in an ensemble of climate model simulations for the past millennium suggests that models tend to overemphasize Northern Hemisphere–Southern Hemisphere synchronicity by underestimating the role of internal ocean–atmosphere dynamics, particularly in the ocean-dominated Southern Hemisphere. Our results imply that climate system predictability on decadal to century timescales may be lower than expected based on assessments of external climate forcing and Northern Hemisphere temperature variations5, 6 alone.

A model-data comparison of Holocene timberline changes in the Swiss Alps reveals past and future drivers of mountain forest dynamics

Mountain vegetation is strongly affected by temperature and is expected to shift upwards with climate change. Dynamic vegetation models are often used to assess the impact of climate on vegetation and model output can be compared with paleobotanical data as a reality check. Recent paleoecological studies have revealed regional variation in the upward shift of timberlines in the Northern and Central European Alps in response to rapid warming at the Younger Dryas/Preboreal transition ca. 11700years ago, probably caused by a climatic gradient across the Alps. This contrasts with previous studies that successfully simulated the early Holocene afforestation in the (warmer) Central Alps with a chironomid-inferred temperature reconstruction from the (colder) Northern Alps. We use LandClim, a dynamic landscape vegetation model to simulate mountain forests under different temperature, soil and precipitation scenarios around Iffigsee (2065m a.s.l.) a lake in the Northwestern Swiss Alps, and compare the model output with the paleobotanical records. The model clearly overestimates the upward shift of timberline in a climate scenario that applies chironomid-inferred July-temperature anomalies to all months. However, forest establishment at 9800 cal. BP at Iffigsee is successfully simulated with lower moisture availability and monthly temperatures corrected for stronger seasonality during the early Holocene. The model-data comparison reveals a contraction in the realized niche of Abies alba due to the prominent role of anthropogenic disturbance after ca. 5000 cal. BP, which has important implications for species distribution models (SDMs) that rely on equilibrium with climate and niche stability. Under future climate projections, LandClim indicates a rapid upward shift of mountain vegetation belts by ca. 500m and treeline positions of ca. 2500m a.s.l. by the end of this century. Resulting biodiversity losses in the alpine vegetation belt might be mitigated with low-impact pastoralism to preserve species-rich alpine meadows.

Sustainable Wastewater Management: Is it Possible to Regulate Micropollution in the Future by Learning from the Past? A Policy Analysis

This paper applies a policy analysis approach to the question of how to effectively regulate micropollution in a sustainable manner. Micropollution is a complex policy problem characterized by a huge number and diversity of chemical substances, as well as various entry paths into the aquatic environment. It challenges traditional water quality management by calling for new technologies in wastewater treatment and behavioral changes in industry, agriculture and civil society. In light of such challenges, the question arises as to how to regulate such a complex phenomenon to ensure water quality is maintained in the future? What can we learn from past experiences in water quality regulation? To answer these questions, policy analysis strongly focuses on the design and choice of policy instruments and the mix of such measures. In this paper, we review instruments commonly used in past water quality regulation. We evaluate their ability to respond to the characteristics of a more recent water quality problem, i.e., micropollution, in a sustainable way. This way, we develop a new framework that integrates both the problem dimension (i.e., causes and effects of a problem) as well as the sustainability dimension (e.g., long-term, cross-sectoral and multi-level) to assess which policy instruments are best suited to regulate micropollution. We thus conclude that sustainability criteria help to identify an appropriate instrument mix of end-of-pipe and source-directed measures to reduce aquatic micropollution.

Recent improvements in antigene technology

DNA triple helix based approaches to control and modulate cellular functions on the level of genomic DNA (antigene technology) suffered in the past from a stepmother like treatment in comparison to the flourishing field of oligonucleotide based control of translation (antisense technology). This was mostly due to lack of affinity of triplex forming oligonucleotides (TFOs) to their DNA target, to sequence restriciton constraints imposed by the triple helical recogniton motifs and by open questions to the accessibility of the target DNA. Recent developments in the area have brought about new bases that specifically recognize pyrimidine-purine inversion sites as well as sugar modifications, e.g. the 2'-aminoethoxy-oligonucleotides or oligonucleotides based on the locked nucleic acid (LNA) sugar unit, that greatly enhance triplex stability and alleviate in part the sequence restriction constraints. With this, sequence specific genomic DNA manipulation starts to become a useful tool in biotechnology

Models of hybridization during range expansions and their application to recent human evolution

Several lines of genetic, archeological and paleontological evidence suggest that anatomically modern humans (Homo sapiens) colonized the world in the last 60,000 years by a series of migrations originating from Africa (e.g. Liu et al., 2006; Handley et al., 2007; Prugnolle, Manica, and Balloux, 2005; Ramachandran et al. 2005; Li et al. 2008; Deshpande et al. 2009; Mellars, 2006a, b; Lahr and Foley, 1998; Gravel et al., 2011; Rasmussen et al., 2011). With the progress of ancient DNA analysis, it has been shown that archaic humans hybridized with modern humans outside Africa. Recent direct analyses of fossil nuclear DNA have revealed that 1–4 percent of the genome of Eurasian has been likely introgressed by Neanderthal genes (Green et al., 2010; Reich et al., 2010; Vernot and Akey, 2014; Sankararaman et al., 2014; Prufer et al., 2014; Wall et al., 2013), with Papua New Guineans and Australians showing even larger levels of admixture with Denisovans (Reich et al., 2010; Skoglund and Jakobsson, 2011; Reich et al., 2011; Rasmussen et al., 2011). It thus appears that the past history of our species has been more complex than previously anticipated (Alves et al., 2012), and that modern humans hybridized several times with local hominins during their expansion out of Africa, but the exact mode, time and location of these hybridizations remain to be clarifi ed (Ibid.; Wall et al., 2013). In this context, we review here a general model of admixture during range expansion, which lead to some predictions about expected patterns of introgression that are relevant to modern human evolution.

The recent eutrophication of Baldeggersee (Switzerland) as assessed by fossil diatom assemblages

Diatom analyses with an annual resolution were carried out on varves of the hypertrophic Baldeggersee (Central Swiss Plateau) for the timespan ad 1885 to 1993. They reveal seven major changes in the dominant planktonic diatoms. As a result of progressive nutrient enrichment, Baldeggersee changed in the 1910s from a Cyclotella to a Tabellaria fenestrata dominated assemblage, and eventually in the 1950s to a Stephanodiscus parvus dominated diatom assemblage. The timing and direction of diatom-assemblage changes in the varved sediment compare well with sedimentological and limnological observations. Partitioning of the variance in the diatom data revealed that TP is a stronger explanatory variable than temperature for these changes. A diatom-inferred total phosphorus (TP) reconstruction indicates three major steps in eutrophication, occurring at 1909, the mid-1950s and the mid-1970s. Comparison with TP measurements in the water column demonstrates that the diatom-TP inference model used is able to hindcast past TP concentrations reliably. The major steps in eutrophication led to decreases in diatom diversity and also resulted in a progressive increase of calcite grain-size. The lake restoration programme established since 1982 shows no direct impact on the composition of the diatom assemblages. However, the decrease in phosphorus loads since the mid-1970s is reflected in the diatom assemblages and in decreasing diatom-inferred TP concentrations.

Ocean dynamics, not dust, have controlled equatorial Pacific productivity over the past 500,000 years

Biological productivity in the equatorial Pacific is relatively high compared with other low-latitude regimes, especially east of the dateline, where divergence driven by the trade winds brings nutrient rich waters of the Equatorial Undercurrent to the surface. The equatorial Pacific is one of the three principal high-nutrient low chlorophyll ocean regimes where biological utilization of nitrate and phosphate is limited, in part, by the availability of iron. Throughout most of the equatorial Pacific, upwelling of water from the Equatorial Undercurrent supplies far more dissolved iron than is delivered by dust, by as much as two orders of magnitude. Nevertheless, recent studies have inferred that the greater supply of dust during ice ages stimulated greater utilization of nutrients within the region of upwelling on the equator, thereby contributing to the sequestration of carbon in the ocean interior. Here we present proxy records for dust and for biological productivity over the past 500 ky at three sites spanning the breadth of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to test the dust fertilization hypothesis. Dust supply peaked under glacial conditions, consistent with previous studies, whereas proxies of export production exhibit maxima during ice age terminations. Temporal decoupling between dust supply and biological productivity indicates that other factors, likely involving ocean dynamics, played a greater role than dust in regulating equatorial Pacific productivity.

Marketing physical activity and healthy eating: A literature review of recent social marketing campaigns and development of a social marketing plan for the CATCH program

Background. This culminating experience project was inspired by an independent study conducted at The University of Texas School of Public Health with Dr. Andrew Springer, DrPH, who works on the evaluation of the Coordinated Approach to Child Health (CATCH) program in Travis County, Texas. It was indicated that a social marketing plan could enhance current efforts for the CATCH program. The aims of the project were to (1) review and synthesize literature on social marketing, with a specific focus on diet, physical activity, and obesity prevention; and (2) apply the gained knowledge toward a practical solution – a social marketing plan for the CATCH program.^ Methods. The literature review aimed to answer the following questions: (1) What audiences (ethnic and age groups), settings, health behaviors, and behavioral science theories have been used in social marketing campaigns? (2) What features of social marketing were used (e.g. formative research, segmentation, and the marketing mix - including promotional strategies and communication channels)? (3) What were the outcomes of the social marketing campaigns? The search aimed to identify studies that met the following inclusion criteria: (a) The study explicitly stated that social marketing was used; (b) The intervention promoted physical activity and/or healthy eating; (c) The population was children, adolescents, young adults, and/or parents; (d) Results of the intervention were available in the published literature The literature review includes studies from the past five years (2004 to 2009). After reviewing the social marketing literature, the insight and knowledge gained was applied to develop a social marketing plan for the CATCH program. The plan was guided by Hands-on Social Marketing, A Step-by-Step Guide and the Center for Disease Control and Prevention's Social Marketing web course.^