Accounting for uncertainty in ecological analysis: the strengths and limitations of hierarchical statistical modeling

Analyses of ecological data should account for the uncertainty in the process(es) that generated the data. However, accounting for these uncertainties is a difficult task, since ecology is known for its complexity. Measurement and/or process errors are often the only sources of uncertainty modeled when addressing complex ecological problems, yet analyses should also account for uncertainty in sampling design, in model specification, in parameters governing the specified model, and in initial and boundary conditions. Only then can we be confident in the scientific inferences and forecasts made from an analysis. Probability and statistics provide a framework that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty. Given the complexities of ecological studies, the hierarchical statistical model is an invaluable tool. This approach is not new in ecology, and there are many examples (both Bayesian and non-Bayesian) in the literature illustrating the benefits of this approach. In this article, we provide a baseline for concepts, notation, and methods, from which discussion on hierarchical statistical modeling in ecology can proceed. We have also planted some seeds for discussion and tried to show where the practical difficulties lie. Our thesis is that hierarchical statistical modeling is a powerful way of approaching ecological analysis in the presence of inevitable but quantifiable uncertainties, even if practical issues sometimes require pragmatic compromises.

Review of The Bible at Qumran: Text, Shape, and Interpretation, edited by Peter W. Flint

Review of The Bible at Qumran: Text, Shape, and Interpretation, edited by Peter W. Flint. Studies in the Dead Sea Scrolls and Related Literature. Grand Rapids, MI: Eerdmans, 2001. Pp. xv + 266. Price: $22.00. ISBN 0-8028-4630-0. This volume is another contribution to the Eerdmans series Studies in the Dead Sea Scrolls and Related Literature. The essays are loosely gathered around the topic "The Bible at Qumran," and the editor has divided the articles into two groups. Part 1, "The Scriptures, the Canon, and the Scrolls," includes articles by J.A. Sanders, B.W. Waltke, E. Ulrich, C.A. Evans, and the editor, P.W. Flint. The contributors to Part 2, "Biblical Interpretation and the Dead Sea Scrolls," are J.C. VanderKam, C.A. Evans, J.E. Bowley, J.M. Scott, M.G. Abegg, and R.W. Wall. Unlike other volumes of collected essays in this series, which have highlighted the work of a single author or published the proceedings of a particular conference, this collection has a more disparate origin. Some contributions were given as papers at the Dead Sea Scrolls Institute of Trinity Western University (Bowley, Ulrich, VanderKam and Wall), one (Waltke) is reprinted from The New International Dictionary of Old Testament Theology and Exegesis (Grand Rapids: Zondervan, 1997), and the rest (Abegg, Evans, Flint, Sanders and Scott) were invited for the volume.

Properly coloured copies and rainbow copies of large graphs with small maximum degree

Let G be a graph on n vertices with maximum degree ?. We use the Lovasz local lemma to show the following two results about colourings ? of the edges of the complete graph Kn. If for each vertex v of Kn the colouring ? assigns each colour to at most (n - 2)/(22.4?2) edges emanating from v, then there is a copy of G in Kn which is properly edge-coloured by ?. This improves on a result of Alon, Jiang, Miller, and Pritikin [Random Struct. Algorithms 23(4), 409433, 2003]. On the other hand, if ? assigns each colour to at most n/(51?2) edges of Kn, then there is a copy of G in Kn such that each edge of G receives a different colour from ?. This proves a conjecture of Frieze and Krivelevich [Electron. J. Comb. 15(1), R59, 2008]. Our proofs rely on a framework developed by Lu and Szekely [Electron. J. Comb. 14(1), R63, 2007] for applying the local lemma to random injections. In order to improve the constants in our results we use a version of the local lemma due to Bissacot, Fernandez, Procacci, and Scoppola [preprint, arXiv:0910.1824]. (c) 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Random Struct. Alg., 40, 425436, 2012

Primary healthcare and the construction of meanings of oral health: a social constructionist interpretation of discourses of the elderly

Dentistry currently reveals itself to be open to new ideas about the construction of meanings for oral health. This openness leads to the social production of health revealing the contextualization of the social and historical aspects of the sundry knowledge in the development of oral health for different communities. With this research, we seek to build meanings for oral health with a group of elderly people. With this objective in mind, we propose an approximation between discourses on oral health mentioned by the elderly and the Social Constructionist discourse. We interviewed 14 elderly people enrolled in a Family Health Unit in Ribeirao Preto, State of Sao Paulo, in the first semester of 2010, and identified two interpretative repertoires through Discourse Analysis, which showed the relationship between 1 Lack of information and dental assistance in childhood, and 2 - Primary Health Care building the meaning of oral health. We concluded that Social Constructionism works epistemologically for the construction of meanings for oral health and that primary health is essential for appreciation and health care that enables the construction of meanings in oral health by the elderly that create conditions for self-care and healthy attitudes.

THE PRESENT OF THE READING: BEAUTY AND CONTRADICTION

This article examines the metaphor of reading and new reading in Guimaraes Rosa's last book, Tutameia (1967), with a reading of the story "Desenredo". In the first part we discuss some theoretical issues concerning the place of the reader according to Wolfgang Iser and then show the singular place of the reader - metaphor of the activity of reading and fiction of an enunciative situation.

Statistical methods for analysis and processing of medical ultrasound: applications to segmentation and restoration

In this thesis two major topics inherent with medical ultrasound images are addressed: deconvolution and segmentation. In the first case a deconvolution algorithm is described allowing statistically consistent maximum a posteriori estimates of the tissue reflectivity to be restored. These estimates are proven to provide a reliable source of information for achieving an accurate characterization of biological tissues through the ultrasound echo. The second topic involves the definition of a semi automatic algorithm for myocardium segmentation in 2D echocardiographic images. The results show that the proposed method can reduce inter- and intra observer variability in myocardial contours delineation and is feasible and accurate even on clinical data.

Statistical Physics and Modeling of Human Mobility

In this thesis, we extend some ideas of statistical physics to describe the properties of human mobility. By using a database containing GPS measures of individual paths (position, velocity and covered space at a spatial scale of 2 Km or a time scale of 30 sec), which includes the 2% of the private vehicles in Italy, we succeed in determining some statistical empirical laws pointing out "universal" characteristics of human mobility. Developing simple stochastic models suggesting possible explanations of the empirical observations, we are able to indicate what are the key quantities and cognitive features that are ruling individuals' mobility. To understand the features of individual dynamics, we have studied different aspects of urban mobility from a physical point of view. We discuss the implications of the Benford's law emerging from the distribution of times elapsed between successive trips. We observe how the daily travel-time budget is related with many aspects of the urban environment, and describe how the daily mobility budget is then spent. We link the scaling properties of individual mobility networks to the inhomogeneous average durations of the activities that are performed, and those of the networks describing people's common use of space with the fractional dimension of the urban territory. We study entropy measures of individual mobility patterns, showing that they carry almost the same information of the related mobility networks, but are also influenced by a hierarchy among the activities performed. We discover that Wardrop's principles are violated as drivers have only incomplete information on traffic state and therefore rely on knowledge on the average travel-times. We propose an assimilation model to solve the intrinsic scattering of GPS data on the street network, permitting the real-time reconstruction of traffic state at a urban scale.

Note-taking in consecutive interpretation; advantages and disadvantages of various techniques

The objective of this thesis is to investigate which contexts should be used for different kinds of note-taking and to study the evolution of the various types of note-taking. Moreover, the final aim of this thesis is to understand which method is used most commonly during the interpreting process, with a special focus on consecutive and community interpreting in the sector of public service and healthcare. The belief that stands behind this thesis is that the most complete method is Rozan’s, which is also the most theorized and used by interpreters. Through the analysis of the different rules of this practice, the importance of this method is shown. Moreover, the analysis demonstrates how these techniques can assist the interpreters in their jobs. This thesis starts from an overview of what note-taking means in the different settings of interpreting and a short history of note-taking is presented. The section that follows analyzes three different well-known types of note-taking methods outside the interpreting environment, that is: linear, non-linear and shorthand. Subsequent to the comparison, Rozan’s 7 principles are analyzed. To authenticate this thesis and the hypotheses herein, data was collected through a survey that was conducted on a sample of a group of graduated students in Linguistic and Intercultural Mediation at the University of Bologna “Scuola Superiore di Lingue Moderne per Interpreti e Traduttori”.

The Divine Eye in Ancient Egypt and in the Midrash Interpretation of Formative Judaism.

This paper studies the “eye” as a religious phenomenon from the multiple traditions of ancient Egypt compared with rabbinic Judaism in late antiquity using a semiotic approach based upon the theories of Umberto Eco. This method was chosen because the eye is a graphic as well as a linguistic sign which both express religious concepts. Generally, the eye represented an all-seeing and omnipresent divinity. In other words, the god was reduced to an eye, whereby the form of the symbol suggests a meaning to the viewer or religious practitioner. In this manner the eye represented the whole body of a deity in Egyptian and the power of a discerning God in rabbinic texts. By focusing upon the semantic aspect of the eye metaphor in both Egyptian and rabbinic texts two religious traditions of the visually perceivable are analyzed from a semiotic perspective.

The Pressures of History: Shakespearean Performance and Interpretation

Interpretations of Shakespeare’s characters have been subject to the pressures of history, exhibiting a progression of performance styles in accordance with changes in ideas and concerns over time. Shakespeare’s complex portrayals of women leave room for cultural influences of a time period to greatly influence interpretations because of the ambiguous nature of some of his major female characters. Lady Macbeth and Much Ado About Nothing’s Beatrice both overstep and challenge gender boundaries, and the combination of their defiant natures and textual ambiguities have made these characters highly controversial over the past four centuries.Various cultures over time have imposed specific readings of the characters that serve to reinforce the male-dominated expectations of a given society. The examination of variations in performance styles and interpretations of these two extremely canonical characters revealinsights into gender ideologies that existed during various time periods throughout history. The combination of this analysis with an exploration of the effects of the more recent applications offeminism and film, which have both helped to reshape the cultural images of both Lady Macbeth and Beatrice, will aide in an observation of the status of gender relations in our contemporary society. The current trend of interpretations of these characters could also provide predictions about future gender relations in our culture.