947 resultados para Random coefficient logit (RCL) model
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La dermatite irritative est décrite comme une réaction réversible, non immunologique caractérisée par des lésions d'aspect très variable, allant de la simple rougeur jusqu'à la formation de bulles voire d'une nécrose, accompagnée de prurit ou d'une sensation de brûlure suite à I' application d'une substance chimique. Le teste de prédiction d'irritation cutanée est traditionnellement depuis les années 1940 le Test de Draize. Ce test consiste en l'application d'une substance chimique sur une peau rasée de lapin pendant 4h et de regarder à 24h si des signes cliniques d'irritations sont présents. Cette méthode critiquable autant d'un point de vue éthique que qualitative reste actuellement le teste le plus utilisé. Depuis le début des années 2000 de nouvelles méthodes in vitro se sont développées tel que le model d'épiderme humain recombiné (RHE). Il s agit d'une multicouche de kératinocyte bien différencié obtenu depuis une culture de don d'ovocyte. Cependant cette méthode en plus d'être très couteuse n'obtient au mieux que 76% de résultat similaire comparé au test in vivo humain. Il existe donc la nécessité de développer une nouvelle méthode in vitro qui simulerait encore mieux la réalité anatomique et physiologique retrouvée in vivo. Notre objectif a été de développer cette nouvelle méthode in vitro. Pour cela nous avons travaillé avec de la peau humaine directement prélevée après une abdominoplastie. Celle ci après préparation avec un dermatome, un couteau dont la lame est réglable pour découper l'épaisseur souhaitée de peau, est montée dans un système de diffusion cellulaire. La couche cornée est alors exposée de manière optimale à 1 ml de la substance chimique testée pendant 4h. L'échantillon de peau est alors fixé dans du formaldéhyde pour permettre la préparation de lames standards d'hématoxyline et éosine. L'irritation est alors investiguée selon des critères histopathologiques de spongioses, de nécroses et de vacuolisations cellulaires. Les résultats de ce.tte première batterie de testes sont plus que prometteurs. En effet, comparé au résultat in vivo, nous obtenons 100% de concordance pour les 4 même substances testes irritantes ou non irritantes, ce qui est supérieur au model d épiderme humain recombiné (76%). De plus le coefficient de variation entre les 3 différentes séries est inférieur à 0.1 ce qui montre une bonne reproductibilité dans un même laboratoire. Dans le futur cette méthode va devoir être testée avec un plus grand nombre de substances chimiques et sa reproductibilité évaluée dans différents laboratoires. Mais cette première evaluation, très encourageante, ouvre des pistes précieuses pour l'avenir des tests irritatifs.
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COD discharges out of processes have increased in line with elevating brightness demands for mechanical pulp and papers. The share of lignin-like substances in COD discharges is on average 75%. In this thesis, a plant dynamic model was created and validated as a means to predict COD loading and discharges out of a mill. The assays were carried out in one paper mill integrate producing mechanical printing papers. The objective in the modeling of plant dynamics was to predict day averages of COD load and discharges out of mills. This means that online data, like 1) the level of large storage towers of pulp and white water 2) pulp dosages, 3) production rates and 4) internal white water flows and discharges were used to create transients into the balances of solids and white water, referred to as “plant dynamics”. A conversion coefficient was verified between TOC and COD. The conversion coefficient was used for predicting the flows from TOC to COD to the waste water treatment plant. The COD load was modeled with similar uncertainty as in reference TOC sampling. The water balance of waste water treatment was validated by the reference concentration of COD. The difference of COD predictions against references was within the same deviation of TOC-predictions. The modeled yield losses and retention values of TOC in pulping and bleaching processes and the modeled fixing of colloidal TOC to solids between the pulping plant and the aeration basin in the waste water treatment plant were similar to references presented in literature. The valid water balances of the waste water treatment plant and the reduction model of lignin-like substances produced a valid prediction of COD discharges out of the mill. A 30% increase in the release of lignin-like substances in the form of production problems was observed in pulping and bleaching processes. The same increase was observed in COD discharges out of waste water treatment. In the prediction of annual COD discharge, it was noticed that the reduction of lignin has a wide deviation from year to year and from one mill to another. This made it difficult to compare the parameters of COD discharges validated in plant dynamic simulation with another mill producing mechanical printing papers. However, a trend of moving from unbleached towards high-brightness TMP in COD discharges was valid.
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Social, technological, and economic time series are divided by events which are usually assumed to be random, albeit with some hierarchical structure. It is well known that the interevent statistics observed in these contexts differs from the Poissonian profile by being long-tailed distributed with resting and active periods interwoven. Understanding mechanisms generating consistent statistics has therefore become a central issue. The approach we present is taken from the continuous-time random-walk formalism and represents an analytical alternative to models of nontrivial priority that have been recently proposed. Our analysis also goes one step further by looking at the multifractal structure of the interevent times of human decisions. We here analyze the intertransaction time intervals of several financial markets. We observe that empirical data describe a subtle multifractal behavior. Our model explains this structure by taking the pausing-time density in the form of a superstatistics where the integral kernel quantifies the heterogeneous nature of the executed tasks. A stretched exponential kernel provides a multifractal profile valid for a certain limited range. A suggested heuristic analytical profile is capable of covering a broader region.
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To study Assessing the impact of tillage practices on soil carbon losses dependents it is necessary to describe the temporal variability of soil CO2 emission after tillage. It has been argued that large amounts of CO2 emitted after tillage may serve as an indicator for longer-term changes in soil carbon stocks. Here we present a two-step function model based on soil temperature and soil moisture including an exponential decay in time component that is efficient in fitting intermediate-term emission after disk plow followed by a leveling harrow (conventional), and chisel plow coupled with a roller for clod breaking (reduced) tillage. Emission after reduced tillage was described using a non-linear estimator with determination coefficient (R²) as high as 0.98. Results indicate that when emission after tillage is addressed it is important to consider an exponential decay in time in order to predict the impact of tillage in short-term emissions.
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The objective of this study was to model mathematically and to simulate the dynamic behavior of an auger-type fertilizer applicator (AFA) in order to use the variable-rate application (VRA) and reduce the coefficient of variation (CV) of the application, proposing an angular speed controller θ' for the motor drive shaft. The input model was θ' and the response was the fertilizer mass flow, due to the construction, density of fertilizer, fill factor and the end position of the auger. The model was used to simulate a control system in open loop, with an electric drive for AFA using an armature voltage (V A) controller. By introducing a sinusoidal excitation signal in V A with amplitude and delay phase optimized and varying θ' during an operation cycle, it is obtained a reduction of 29.8% in the CV (constant V A) to 11.4%. The development of the mathematical model was a first step towards the introduction of electric drive systems and closed loop control for the implementation of AFA with low CV in VRA.
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In this article, a methodology is used for the simultaneous determination of the effective diffusivity and the convective mass transfer coefficient in porous solids, which can be considered as an infinite cylinder during drying. Two models are used for optimization and drying simulation: model 1 (constant volume and diffusivity, with equilibrium boundary condition), and model 2 (constant volume and diffusivity with convective boundary condition). Optimization algorithms based on the inverse method were coupled to the analytical solutions, and these solutions can be adjusted to experimental data of the drying kinetics. An application of optimization methodology was made to describe the drying kinetics of whole bananas, using experimental data available in the literature. The statistical indicators enable to affirm that the solution of diffusion equation with convective boundary condition generates results superior than those with the equilibrium boundary condition.
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Hydrological models are important tools that have been used in water resource planning and management. Thus, the aim of this work was to calibrate and validate in a daily time scale, the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) to the watershed of the Galo creek , located in Espírito Santo State. To conduct the study we used georeferenced maps of relief, soil type and use, in addition to historical daily time series of basin climate and flow. In modeling were used time series corresponding to the periods Jan 1, 1995 to Dec 31, 2000 and Jan 1, 2001 to Dec 20, 2003 for calibration and validation, respectively. Model performance evaluation was done using the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (E NS) and the percentage of bias (P BIAS). SWAT evaluation was also done in the simulation of the following hydrological variables: maximum and minimum annual daily flowsand minimum reference flows, Q90 and Q95, based on mean absolute error. E NS and P BIAS were, respectively, 0.65 and 7.2% and 0.70 and 14.1%, for calibration and validation, indicating a satisfactory performance for the model. SWAT adequately simulated minimum annual daily flow and the reference flows, Q90 and Q95; it was not suitable in the simulation of maximum annual daily flows.
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The Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse Modified (BLPRM) model simulates the precipitous slide in the hourly and sub-hourly and has six parameters for each of the twelve months of the year. This study aimed to evaluate the behavior of precipitation series in the duration of 15 min, obtained by simulation using the model BLPRM in situations: (a) where the parameters are estimated from a combination of statistics, creating five different sets; (b) suitability of the model to generate rain. To adjust the parameters were used rain gauge records of Pelotas/RS/Brazil, which statistics were estimated - mean, variance, covariance, autocorrelation coefficient of lag 1, the proportion of dry days in the period considered. The results showed that the parameters related to the time of onset of precipitation (λ) and intensities (μx) were the most stable and the most unstable were ν parameter, related to rain duration. The BLPRM model adequately represented the mean, variance, and proportion of the dry period of the series of precipitation lasting 15 min and, the time dependence of the heights of rain, represented autocorrelation coefficient of the first retardation was statistically less simulated series suitability for the duration of 15 min.
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Some models have been developed using agrometeorological and remote sensing data to estimate agriculture production. However, it is expected that the use of SAR images can improve their performance. The main objective of this study was to estimate the sugarcane production using a multiple linear regression model which considers agronomic data and ALOS/PALSAR images obtained from 2007/08, 2008/09 and 2009/10 cropping seasons. The performance of models was evaluated by coefficient of determination, t-test, Willmott agreement index (d), random error and standard error. The model was able to explain 79%, 12% and 74% of the variation in the observed productions of the 2007/08, 2008/09 and 2009/10 cropping seasons, respectively. Performance of the model for the 2008/09 cropping season was poor because of the occurrence of a long period of drought in that season. When the three seasons were considered all together, the model explained 66% of the variation. Results showed that SAR-based yield prediction models can contribute and assist sugar mill technicians to improve such estimates.
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This study examines the structure of the Russian Reflexive Marker ( ся/-сь) and offers a usage-based model building on Construction Grammar and a probabilistic view of linguistic structure. Traditionally, reflexive verbs are accounted for relative to non-reflexive verbs. These accounts assume that linguistic structures emerge as pairs. Furthermore, these accounts assume directionality where the semantics and structure of a reflexive verb can be derived from the non-reflexive verb. However, this directionality does not necessarily hold diachronically. Additionally, the semantics and the patterns associated with a particular reflexive verb are not always shared with the non-reflexive verb. Thus, a model is proposed that can accommodate the traditional pairs as well as for the possible deviations without postulating different systems. A random sample of 2000 instances marked with the Reflexive Marker was extracted from the Russian National Corpus and the sample used in this study contains 819 unique reflexive verbs. This study moves away from the traditional pair account and introduces the concept of Neighbor Verb. A neighbor verb exists for a reflexive verb if they share the same phonological form excluding the Reflexive Marker. It is claimed here that the Reflexive Marker constitutes a system in Russian and the relation between the reflexive and neighbor verbs constitutes a cross-paradigmatic relation. Furthermore, the relation between the reflexive and the neighbor verb is argued to be of symbolic connectivity rather than directionality. Effectively, the relation holding between particular instantiations can vary. The theoretical basis of the present study builds on this assumption. Several new variables are examined in order to systematically model variability of this symbolic connectivity, specifically the degree and strength of connectivity between items. In usage-based models, the lexicon does not constitute an unstructured list of items. Instead, items are assumed to be interconnected in a network. This interconnectedness is defined as Neighborhood in this study. Additionally, each verb carves its own niche within the Neighborhood and this interconnectedness is modeled through rhyme verbs constituting the degree of connectivity of a particular verb in the lexicon. The second component of the degree of connectivity concerns the status of a particular verb relative to its rhyme verbs. The connectivity within the neighborhood of a particular verb varies and this variability is quantified by using the Levenshtein distance. The second property of the lexical network is the strength of connectivity between items. Frequency of use has been one of the primary variables in functional linguistics used to probe this. In addition, a new variable called Constructional Entropy is introduced in this study building on information theory. It is a quantification of the amount of information carried by a particular reflexive verb in one or more argument constructions. The results of the lexical connectivity indicate that the reflexive verbs have statistically greater neighborhood distances than the neighbor verbs. This distributional property can be used to motivate the traditional observation that the reflexive verbs tend to have idiosyncratic properties. A set of argument constructions, generalizations over usage patterns, are proposed for the reflexive verbs in this study. In addition to the variables associated with the lexical connectivity, a number of variables proposed in the literature are explored and used as predictors in the model. The second part of this study introduces the use of a machine learning algorithm called Random Forests. The performance of the model indicates that it is capable, up to a degree, of disambiguating the proposed argument construction types of the Russian Reflexive Marker. Additionally, a global ranking of the predictors used in the model is offered. Finally, most construction grammars assume that argument construction form a network structure. A new method is proposed that establishes generalization over the argument constructions referred to as Linking Construction. In sum, this study explores the structural properties of the Russian Reflexive Marker and a new model is set forth that can accommodate both the traditional pairs and potential deviations from it in a principled manner.
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A parallel pseudo-spectral method for the simulation in distributed memory computers of the shallow-water equations in primitive form was developed and used on the study of turbulent shallow-waters LES models for orographic subgrid-scale perturbations. The main characteristics of the code are: momentum equations integrated in time using an accurate pseudo-spectral technique; Eulerian treatment of advective terms; and parallelization of the code based on a domain decomposition technique. The parallel pseudo-spectral code is efficient on various architectures. It gives high performance onvector computers and good speedup on distributed memory systems. The code is being used for the study of the interaction mechanisms in shallow-water ows with regular as well as random orography with a prescribed spectrum of elevations. Simulations show the evolution of small scale vortical motions from the interaction of the large scale flow and the small-scale orographic perturbations. These interactions transfer energy from the large-scale motions to the small (usually unresolved) scales. The possibility of including the parametrization of this effects in turbulent LES subgrid-stress models for the shallow-water equations is addressed.
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This study combines several projects related to the flows in vessels with complex shapes representing different chemical apparata. Three major cases were studied. The first one is a two-phase plate reactor with a complex structure of intersecting micro channels engraved on one plate which is covered by another plain plate. The second case is a tubular microreactor, consisting of two subcases. The first subcase is a multi-channel two-component commercial micromixer (slit interdigital) used to mix two liquid reagents before they enter the reactor. The second subcase is a micro-tube, where the distribution of the heat generated by the reaction was studied. The third case is a conventionally packed column. However, flow, reactions or mass transfer were not modeled. Instead, the research focused on how to describe mathematically the realistic geometry of the column packing, which is rather random and can not be created using conventional computeraided design or engineering (CAD/CAE) methods. Several modeling approaches were used to describe the performance of the processes in the considered vessels. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was used to describe the details of the flow in the plate microreactor and micromixer. A space-averaged mass transfer model based on Fick’s law was used to describe the exchange of the species through the gas-liquid interface in the microreactor. This model utilized data, namely the values of the interfacial area, obtained by the corresponding CFD model. A common heat transfer model was used to find the heat distribution in the micro-tube. To generate the column packing, an additional multibody dynamic model was implemented. Auxiliary simulation was carried out to determine the position and orientation of every packing element in the column. This data was then exported into a CAD system to generate desirable geometry, which could further be used for CFD simulations. The results demonstrated that the CFD model of the microreactor could predict the flow pattern well enough and agreed with experiments. The mass transfer model allowed to estimate the mass transfer coefficient. Modeling for the second case showed that the flow in the micromixer and the heat transfer in the tube could be excluded from the larger model which describes the chemical kinetics in the reactor. Results of the third case demonstrated that the auxiliary simulation could successfully generate complex random packing not only for the column but also for other similar cases.
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The use of exact coordinates of pebbles and fuel particles of pebble bed reactor modelling becoming possible in Monte Carlo reactor physics calculations is an important development step. This allows exact modelling of pebble bed reactors with realistic pebble beds without the placing of pebbles in regular lattices. In this study the multiplication coefficient of the HTR-10 pebble bed reactor is calculated with the Serpent reactor physics code and, using this multiplication coefficient, the amount of pebbles required for the critical load of the reactor. The multiplication coefficient is calculated using pebble beds produced with the discrete element method and three different material libraries in order to compare the results. The received results are lower than those from measured at the experimental reactor and somewhat lower than those gained with other codes in earlier studies.
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Didanosine (ddI) is a component of highly active antiretroviral therapy drug combinations, used especially in resource-limited settings and in zidovudine-resistant patients. The population pharmacokinetics of ddI was evaluated in 48 healthy volunteers enrolled in two bioequivalence studies. These data, along with a set of co-variates, were the subject of a nonlinear mixed-effect modeling analysis using the NONMEM program. A two-compartment model with first order absorption (ADVAN3 TRANS3) was fitted to the serum ddI concentration data. Final pharmacokinetic parameters, expressed as functions of the co-variates gender and creatinine clearance (CL CR), were: oral clearance (CL = 55.1 + 240 x CL CR + 16.6 L/h for males and CL = 55.1 + 240 x CL CR for females), central volume (V2 = 9.8 L), intercompartmental clearance (Q = 40.9 L/h), peripheral volume (V3 = 62.7 + 22.9 L for males and V3 = 62.7 L for females), absorption rate constant (Ka = 1.51/h), and dissolution time of the tablet (D = 0.43 h). The intraindividual (residual) variability expressed as coefficient of variation was 13.0%, whereas the interindividual variability of CL, Q, V3, Ka, and D was 20.1, 75.8, 20.6, 18.9, and 38.2%, respectively. The relatively high (>30%) interindividual variability for some of these parameters, observed under the controlled experimental settings of bioequivalence trials in healthy volunteers, may result from genetic variability of the processes involved in ddI absorption and disposition.
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Babies with gastroschisis have high morbidity, which is associated with inflammatory bowel injury caused by exposure to amniotic fluid. The objective of this study was to identify components of the inflammatory response in the intestine and liver in an experimental model of gastroschisis in rats. The model was surgically created at 18.5 days of gestation. The fetuses were exposed through a hysterotomy and an incision at the right of the umbilicus was made, exposing the fetal bowel. Then, the fetus was placed back into the uterus until term. The bowel in this model had macro- and microscopic characteristics similar to those observed in gastroschisis. The study was conducted on three groups of 20 fetuses each: gastroschisis, control, and sham fetuses. Fetal body, intestine and liver weights and intestine length were measured. IL-1β, IL-6, IL-10, TNF-α, IFN-γ and NF-kappaB levels were assessed by ELISA. Data were analyzed statistically by ANOVA followed by the Tukey post-test. Gastroschisis fetuses had a decreased intestine length (means ± SD, 125 ± 25 vs 216 ± 13.9; P < 0.005) and increased intestine weight (0.29 ± 0.05 vs 0.24 ± 0.04; P < 0.005). Intestine length correlated with liver weight only in gastroschisis fetuses (Pearson’s correlation coefficient, r = 0.518, P = 0.019). There were no significant differences in the concentrations of IL-1β, TNF-α or IFN-γ in the intestine, whereas the concentration of NF-kappaB was increased in both the intestine and liver of fetuses with gastroschisis. These results show that the inflammatory response in the liver and intestine of the rat model of gastroschisis is accompanied by an increase in the amount of NF-kappaB in the intestine and liver.