House price dynamics and their reaction to macroeconomic changes

This article applies a three-regime Markov switching model to investigate the impact of the macroeconomy on the dynamics of the residential real estate market in the US. Focusing on the period between 1960 and 2011, the methodology implemented allows for a clearer understanding of the drivers of the real estate market in “boom”, “steady-state” and “crash” regimes. Our results show that the sensitivity of the real estate market to economic changes is regime-dependent. The paper then proceeds to examine whether policymakers are able to influence a regime switch away from the crash regime. We find that a decrease in interest rate spreads could be an effective catalyst to precipitate such a change of state.

Evolution and change in the serviced office sector: a decade later

With particular reference to its role in the corporate real estate supply chain, this paper focuses on how the serviced office sector in the UK has evolved and changed over the last decade. A qualitative research approach involving 21 semi-structured interviews with corporate clients of serviced office operators was used to address a number of issues regarding the perceptions of users of serviced offices. It is concluded that the serviced office sector has become an established sector of the UK’s commercial real estate market providing an essential product for many corporate organisations. The serviced office sector has been relatively nimble and a range of operational models have emerged. It was found that corporate organisations use serviced office space and services in order to align workforce change with portfolio change, to transfer risk, for short-term project space, as temporary overflow space, to pilot a new location, to become familiar with a specific geographical marketplace or simply to gain an initial presence in an area.

Measuring European property investment performance: comparing different approaches

Purpose – Price indices for commercial real estate markets are difficult to construct because assets are heterogeneous, they are spatially dispersed and they are infrequently traded. Appraisal-based indices are one response to these problems, but may understate volatility or fail to capture turning points in a timely manner. This paper estimates “transaction linked indices” for major European markets to see whether these offer a different perspective on market performance. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – The assessed value method is used to construct the indices. This has been recently applied to commercial real estate datasets in the USA and UK. The underlying data comprise appraisals and sale prices for assets monitored by Investment Property Databank (IPD). The indices are compared to appraisal-based series for the countries concerned for Q4 2001 to Q4 2012. Findings – Transaction linked indices show stronger growth and sharper declines over the course of the cycle, but they do not notably lead their appraisal-based counterparts. They are typically two to four times more volatile. Research limitations/implications – Only country-level indicators can be constructed in many cases owing to low trading volumes in the period studied, and this same issue prevented sample selection bias from being analysed in depth. Originality/value – Discussion of the utility of transaction-based price indicators is extended to European commercial real estate markets. The indicators offer alternative estimates of real estate market volatility that may be useful in asset allocation and risk modelling, including in a regulatory context.

The regulations of Buenos Aires' private architecture during the Late Eighteenth Century

The article revises the new planning regulations introduced in Latin America under the Bourbon reform, looking at the real estate market that these new conditions created in the capital of the Viceroyalty of the River Plate.

Which factors drive rental depreciation rates for office and industrial properties?

As new buildings are constructed in response to changes in technology or user requirements, the value of the existing stock will decline in relative terms. This is termed economic depreciation and it may be influenced by the age and quality of buildings, amount and timing of expenditure, and wider market and economic conditions. This study tests why individual assets experience different depreciation rates, applying panel regression techniques to 375 UK office and industrial assets. Results suggest that rental value depreciation rates reduce as buildings get older, while a composite measure of age and quality provides more explanation of depreciation than age alone. Furthermore, economic and local real estate market conditions are significant in explaining how depreciation rates change over time.

Urban economic openness and IPO underpricing

We examine the empirical impact of trade openness on the short-run underpricing of initial public offerings (IPOs) using city-level real estate data. This paper represents a first attempt to employ a macroeconomic approach to explain IPO performance. We investigate an openness effect in which urban economic openness (UEO) has a significant impact on the productivity and on the prices of both direct and indirect real estate due to productivity gains of companies in more open areas. This in turn positively affects the firm’s profitability, enhancing the confidence in the local real estate market and the future company performance and decreasing the uncertainty of the IPO valuation. And as a result, we find that issuers have less incentive to underprice the IPO shares. China provides a suitable experimental ground to study the immense underpricing in developing markets, which cannot solely be accounted for by firm specific effects. First, Chinese real estate companies show strong geographic patterns focusing their businesses locally – usually at a city level. Second, we observe a degree of openness which is significantly heterogeneous across Chinese cities. Controlling for company-specific variables, location and state ownership, we find the evidence that companies whose businesses are in economically more open areas experience less IPO underpricing. Our results show high explanatory power and are robust to diverse specifications.

As exigências do novo acordo de capital da Basiléia quanto ao risco de crédito: estudo de caso de uma carteira de crédito imobiliário (pessoa física) em um banco múltiplo do Brasil

O presente trabalho visa descrever e analisar um processo de adequação às exigências do Novo Acordo de Capital da Basiléia quanto ao risco de crédito para a carteira de crédito imobiliário (pessoa física) de uma instituição financeira brasileira e identificar aspectos de melhoria na eficiência da gestão de riscos. A partir da revisão bibliográfica foram destacados os aspectos teóricos do Acordo de Basiléia de 1988 e de Basiléia II, com ênfase para aqueles relacionados com a problemática do risco de crédito. Em seguida, foram descritas as principais características do setor de crédito imobiliário no Brasil, bem como sua evolução nos últimos anos. A questão do risco de crédito imobiliário no contexto de Basiléia II foi discutida e considerações relevantes foram relacionadas. Por meio do estudo de caso, realizado em uma carteira de crédito imobiliário de uma instituição financeira brasileira, tais considerações foram aplicadas na prática e, logo depois, foram analisados os resultados e expostas as conclusões.

Análise da precificação de imóveis na cidade do Rio de Janeiro utilizando Modelagem Hedônica e os efeitos da autocorrelação espacial

A escolha da cidade do Rio de Janeiro como sede de grandes eventos esportivos mundiais, a Copa do Mundo de Futebol de 2014 e os Jogos Olímpicos de 2016, colocou-a no centro de investimentos em infraestrutura, mobilidade urbana e segurança pública, com consequente impacto no mercado imobiliário, tanto de novos lançamentos de empreendimentos, quanto na revenda de imóveis usados. Acredita-se que o preço de um imóvel dependa de uma relação entre suas características estruturais como quantidade de quartos, suítes, vagas de garagem, presença de varanda, tal como sua localização, proximidade com centros de trabalho, entretenimento e áreas valorizadas ou degradadas. Uma das técnicas para avaliar a contribuição dessas características para a formação do preço do imóvel, conhecido na Econométrica como Modelagem Hedônica de Preços, é uma aplicação de regressão linear multivariada onde a variável dependente é o preço e as variáveis independentes, as respectivas características que deseja-se modelar. A utilização da regressão linear implica em observar premissas que devem ser atendidas para a confiabilidade dos resultados a serem analisados, tais como independência e homoscedasticidade dos resíduos e não colinearidade entre as variáveis independentes. O presente trabalho objetiva aplicar a modelagem hedônica de preços para imóveis localizados na cidade do Rio de Janeiro em um modelo de regressão linear multivariada, em conjunto com outras fontes de dados para a construção de variáveis de acessibilidade e socioambiental a fim de verificar a relação de importância entre elas para a formação do preço e, em particular, exploramos brevemente a tendência de preços em função da distância a favelas. Em atenção aos pré-requisitos observados para a aplicação de regressão linear, verificamos que a premissa de independência dos preços não pode ser atestada devido a constatação da autocorrelação espacial entre os imóveis, onde não apenas as características estruturais e de acessibilidade são levadas em consideração para a precificação do bem, mas principalmente a influência mútua que os imóveis vizinhos exercem um ao outro.

Fundos de investimento imobiliário no Brasil: as características que explicam o desempenho

O objetivo deste trabalho é ajudar o investidor que optou por investir seus recursos no mercado imobiliário a tomar sua decisão de investimento com base nas características endógenas facilmente identificáveis no prospecto dos Fundos de Investimento Imobiliários (FIIs). Foram selecionadas aquelas consideradas importantes pela literatura e foram construídos alguns modelos para testar sua influência na rentabilidade. Inicialmente, foi construído um modelo completo, com todas as variáveis, que apresentou resultados pouco relevantes, já que a maioria das variáveis não apresentou significância. Em seguida, um modelo reduzido foi montado com as variáveis que mais contribuíam para a rentabilidade, obtendo-se resultados relevantes. Através desse modelo, observou-se que FIIs que investem em desenvolvimento imobiliário, com foco no mercado residencial e com baixas taxas de administração, geraram maiores rentabilidades ao investidor.

Outorga onerosa do direito de construir e dinâmica do mercado imobiliário formal: planejamento e descaminhos na expansão urbana de Parnamirim RN (2008-2010)

The `Outorga Onerosa do Direito de Construir - OODC` (Public Concession of Building Rights), instrument instituted by The City Statute in 2001, has as main objective the recovery of urban property, seeking for a fair distribution the urbanization benefits. The possibility of usage of the OODC instrument is linked to the maximum utilization coefficient, determined to specific areas in accordance to existing infrastructure conditions, further taking into account the formal real estate market, expansion axis and crowding. Being an instrument which establishes values to be paid for a better use of land, it maintains a narrow relation to the real estate, incentivizing or discouraging the crowding in specific areas. The present study investigates the relationship between the criteria for the making of the Public Concession of Building Rights instrument and the dynamics of the formal real estate market. It takes as empiric universe Parnamirim (RN), part of the Natal Metropolitan Area (RN), focusing on the application of the OODC in the period of 2008-2010. It seeks to better understand the necessary basis for the formulation of the instrument, about how it works and its relation to the formal real estate market. It aims to depict the formal real estate market by presenting the production of urban space in Parnamirim in terms of intensity and nature of the real estate, furthermore identifying the licensed properties through the application of the municipality instrument. For the conclusion, it is discussed the criteria for the formation of OODC, its relationship to the dynamics of the formal real estate market and its influencing possibilities in the processes of usage and occupation of land in the context of urban planning

Natal qual é a sua cara?: análise do perfil edilício da avenida Eng. Roberto Freire (Natal/RN) à luz da acessibilidade

This study focuses on the building ensemble of Avenida Roberto Freire, a main road in Natal, Brazil, as a material expression of the confluence of various factors among which the following may be emphasized: high level of accessibility due to urban spatial re-structuring and the growth of the real estate market, in view of the increasing number of consumers, who arrived in Natal within the last decades. The intense urban modification process that has been going on in Natal since at least the 1980s, has engendered the formation of long axial lines which express the expansion dynamics and some of the forces subjacent to it. Avenida Roberto Freire has been an iconic example of an urban thoroughfare where architecture becomes primarily a communication support that can be perceived by fast moving passers-by, what brings it close to the venturian concept of strip (Venturi at al, 1972). The building types that line the road not only respond to the dynamics in process but also contribute to intensify it, as they house a variety of uses which attract people and generate more movement. The dynamics is further strengthened by the action of the real estate business which benefits from the increase of highly accessible locations, and from the private and public investments and incentives to tourism that aim to insert this city into the globalized world. Although the intention of reconstituting part of the history of density increase on this avenue in a diachronical perspective was attempted within the limits of the available references and documentation, the central contribution of this study is to understand the relations between topological accessibility and the typological nature of the building ensemble. By observing the synchronic morphological frame resulting from the spatial configuration analysis pertinent to this avenue (cf. Hillier and Hanson,1984) and the inventory and classification of the building ensemble there existing, this study aims to understand how architecture responds to accessibility in view of the real estate pressure, boosted by a cosmopolitanizing process brought about by the continuous flow of foreign and Brazilian arrivals as visitors, temporary or permanent residents

Condomínios fechados: a produção habitacional contemporânea e a auto-exclusão dos ricos no espaço urbano de Natal RN (1995 2003)

The present work analyzes the fast evolution of gated communities in Natal-RN´s urban space. Characterized by the occupation of large areas, providing private security and utilities, this kind of real estate use arises a long list of questions and issues from society and scholars, due to privatization of urban space, bending of law constraints and the lack of an integrated planning of the cities where they are built. The reasons for its fast growth in Brazil s urban areas are analyzed, considering the impact on formal urban planning and municipal services and on the identification of urbanistic, architectural pattern and constraints, as well as legal, social and economic issues. This study is based on the detailed analysis of the first three units of gated communities built in the urban space in Natal, between 1995 and 2003, including their evolution throughout time and the specific social and economic reasons for its present widespread adoption in Brazilian real estate market and, particulary, in our city. The main objective of this piece of work is to answer the why s and how s these phenomena evolved, setting a basis for the definition of adequate public policies and regulation of this kind of urban land use

Habitus e territorialidade na composição da dinâmica imobiliária em Natal/RN

Many have sought to understand the spatial processes, which originate from land development and real estate dynamics, seeking also to build new categories of analysis to put some light on the less evident aspects of this process. The discussion about production of space has been adopted in this study, but has proved insufficient to explain this complex urban reality. Here, it is analysed the ways that, in Natal, the market fosters the material basis for capital accumulation. The research had as methodological basis, the analysis of discourse, having full interviews with institutional agents as background. It aimed at understanding the complex, material configuration in urban space. It thus investigates the theory of practices of existing (private and public) agents towards the real estate market, using several concepts, like production of space (Lefèbvre and Harvey); habitus (Bourdieu); spatial fix (Harvey); and territoriality (Haesbaert). Evidence shows that there has been a process of ‗naturalization of certain practices in the market that has had implications for the production of an urban space that is both segmented and segregated, giving rise also to complex material configurations, including different forms of heterotopies (Foucault). These spaces result from capital s own creative dynamics and of the reach for social realization for different groups of people making a living under different economic conditions of income.

Modos de ser e modos de viver : a trajetória dos estrangeiros em Natal/RN

This work aims to understand the trajectory of immigrants living in Natal / RN, between the years 1990 and 2009, their motivations for this change, their sociability relations, as well as the impact of this group in Natal and specifically, in the district of Ponta Negra, where most of them established their residences or work. Considering that the historical, political, economical and social environment where these immigrants are inserted, are different from that experienced by former immigrants who came to Brazil in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, a period of mass migration, it was revealed that immigration studied in contemporary Natal constitutes a new configuration (Elias, 1994). This new configuration is represented by several characteristics that distinguish this contemporary immigration, as: the relationship established by these foreigners, both with their country of origin and the destination, the formation of social networks that offer support to newcomers and those already installed, the relations of sociability with locals and a new relationship of belonging with the space, since the possibility of coming and going from one country to the other, allows a (re)production of their original ?? social and economic life in the new space. The research methodology was based on the analysis of narrative interviews, in light of the theory of Schütze (1977) in order to understand the faces of this immigration. As theoretical support for the data analysis the theories of authors such as Norbert Elias, presentedin his work about the established and outsiders, Pierre Bourdieu, and his concept of habitus, distinction and style of life, Georg Simmel, and his study of life in the metropolis, his analysis of the foreigner and his theory of sociability, among others. This study attempted to give visibility to foreigners living in Natal, who experience the dynamics of the district of Ponta Negra and reconstruct their daily relations of sociability in this space. In fact, the presence of foreigners in this urban context allows for the construction of new configurations, both in terms of the physical space of the neighborhood, which has been modified by the touristification process and the real estate market, which is molded to meet this demand, but also in their social sphere, with regard to the relations established between foreign residents and locals. In seeking to characterize these migratory experiences it could be understood that the trajectories of each foreigner is part of a broader social structure, which cannot be evaluated neither disconnected from the contexts in which they operate, nor under a single point of view

Gestão ambiental e competitividade no setor da construção civil :um estudo sobre a aceitabilidade de práticas ambientais no mercado imobiliário

This work investigates the importance of Eco-Materiais applied in the civil construction and the necessity of knowledge of the real estate market, showing the importance of application of recycled products where inserted inside of a bigger scope of the sustainable development which has the subjects as the ambient management. In the theoretical referencial boarded the recycled and perfectly ecological products that demonstrate the applicability of this type of products in the sector of the civil construction, beyond the economic and social placesThe main popouse of the real estate sector is to show the awareness and demonstration in the negotiation of property constructed with these products, therefore, already it is practised by the market of the civil construction where much time sao commercialized by real estate and the its correctors lacking in same knowledge that is more deepened on these materials, having this evidence been made with statistical application of questionnaire and analyzed with base. We finish showing the statistical results with application of 142 questionnaires in a universe of 145 real estate from Natal/RN. With this, we may say that today exists a very strong concern with the environmental laws and the generated ambient impact in the civil construction and that the real estate sector has a feeling that the necessity of if inserting in this process, therefore, the real estate market in our State is in expansion and sensible to the necessity of changes, since the Natal/RN meets in the script of the tourism the International demanding of the professional that a globalized knowledge works with property, so the necessity of understanding the environmental laws and understanding application of the echo-materias used in the construction will give a better quality of life and at the same time to protect the nature