Predictors of Weight Change in Sedentary Smokers Receiving a Standard Smoking Cessation Intervention.

INTRODUCTION: Quitting smoking is associated with weight gain, which may threaten motivation to engage or sustain a quit attempt. The pattern of weight gained by smokers treated according to smoking cessation guidelines has been poorly described. We aimed to determine the weight gained after smoking cessation and its predictors, by smokers receiving individual counseling and nicotine replacement therapies for smoking cessation. METHODS: We performed an ancillary analysis of a randomized controlled trial assessing moderate physical activity as an aid for smoking cessation in addition to standard treatment in sedentary adult smokers. We used mixed longitudinal models to describe the evolution of weight over time, thus allowing us to take every participant into account. We also fitted a model to assess the effect of smoking status and reported use of nicotine replacement therapy at each time point. We adjusted for intervention group, sex, age, nicotine dependence, and education. RESULTS: In the whole cohort, weight increased in the first 3 months, and stabilized afterwards. Mean 1-year weight gain was 3.3kg for women and 3.9kg for men (p = .002). Higher nicotine dependence and male sex were associated with more weight gained during abstinence. Age over median was associated with continuing weight gain during relapse. There was a nonsignificant trend toward slower weight gain with use of nicotine replacement therapies. CONCLUSION: Sedentary smokers receiving a standard smoking cessation intervention experience a moderate weight gain, limited to the first 3 months. Older age, male sex, and higher nicotine dependence are predictors of weight gain.

Predictors of red blood cell transfusion after cardiac surgery: a prospective cohort study

Abstract OBJECTIVE To identify predictors of red blood cell transfusion (RBCT) after cardiac surgery. METHOD A prospective cohort study performed with 323 adults after cardiac surgery, from April to December of 2013. A data collection instrument was constructed by the researchers containing factors associated with excessive bleeding after cardiac surgery, as found in the literature, for investigation in the immediate postoperative period. The relationship between risk factors and the outcome was assessed by univariate analysis and logistic regression. RESULTS The factors associated with RBCT in the immediate postoperative period included lower height and weight, decreased platelet count, lower hemoglobin level, higher prevalence of platelet count <150x10 3/mm3, lower volume of protamine, longer duration of anesthesia, higher prevalence of intraoperative RBCT, lower body temperature, higher heart rate and higher positive end-expiratory pressure. The independent predictor was weight <66.5Kg. CONCLUSION Factors associated with RBCT in the immediate postoperative period of cardiac surgery were found. The independent predictor was weight.

Automated auditory mismatch negativity paradigm improves coma prognostic accuracy after cardiac arrest and therapeutic hypothermia.

PURPOSE: EEG and somatosensory evoked potential are highly predictive of poor outcome after cardiac arrest; their accuracy for good recovery is however low. We evaluated whether addition of an automated mismatch negativity-based auditory discrimination paradigm (ADP) to EEG and somatosensory evoked potential improves prediction of awakening. METHODS: EEG and ADP were prospectively recorded in 30 adults during therapeutic hypothermia and in normothermia. We studied the progression of auditory discrimination on single-trial multivariate analyses from therapeutic hypothermia to normothermia, and its correlation to outcome at 3 months, assessed with cerebral performance categories. RESULTS: At 3 months, 18 of 30 patients (60%) survived; 5 had severe neurologic impairment (cerebral performance categories = 3) and 13 had good recovery (cerebral performance categories = 1-2). All 10 subjects showing improvements of auditory discrimination from therapeutic hypothermia to normothermia regained consciousness: ADP was 100% predictive for awakening. The addition of ADP significantly improved mortality prediction (area under the curve, 0.77 for standard model including clinical examination, EEG, somatosensory evoked potential, versus 0.86 after adding ADP, P = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: This automated ADP significantly improves early coma prognostic accuracy after cardiac arrest and therapeutic hypothermia. The progression of auditory discrimination is strongly predictive of favorable recovery and appears complementary to existing prognosticators of poor outcome. Before routine implementation, validation on larger cohorts is warranted.

Clinical characteristics and outcome of patients admitted to a medico-surgical ICU requiring non invasive ventilation (NIV) for hypercapnic respiratory failure

Introduction: Because it decreases intubation rate and mortality, NIV has become first-line treatment in case of hypercapnic respiratory failure (HRF). Whether this approach is equally successful for all categories of HRF patients is however debated. We assessed if any clinical characteristics of HRF patients were associated with NIV intensity, success, and outcome, in order to identify prognostic factors. Methods: Retrospective analysis of the clinical database (clinical information system and MDSi) of patients consecutively admitted to our medico-surgical ICU, presenting with HRF (defined as PaCO2 >50 mm Hg), and receiving NIV between January 2009 and December 2010. Demographic data, medical diagnoses (including documented chronic lung disease), reason for ICU hospitalization, recent surgical interventions, SAPS II and McCabe scores were extracted from the database. Total duration of NIV and the need for tracheal intubation during the 5 days following the first hypercapnia documentation, as well as ICU and hospital mortality were recorded. Results are reported as median [IQR]. Comparisons with Chi2 or Kruskal-Wallis tests, p <0.05 (*). Results: 164 patients were included, 45 (27.4%) of whom were intubated after 10 [2-34] hours, after having received 7 [2-19] hours of NIV. NIV successful patients received 15 [5-22] hours of NIV for up to 5 days. Intubation was correlated with increased ICU (20% vs. 3%, p <0.001) and hospital (46.7% vs. 30.2, p >0.05) mortality. Conclusions: A majority of patients requiring NIV for hypercapnic respiratory failure in our ICU have no diagnosed chronic pulmonary disease. These patients tend to have increased ICUand hospital mortality. The majority of patients were non-surgical, a feature correlated with increased hospital mortality. Beside usual predictors of severity such as age and SAPS II, absence of diagnosed chronic pulmonary disease and non-operative state appear to be associated with increased mortality. Further studies should explore whether these patients are indeed more prone to an adverse outcome and which therapeutic strategies might contribute to alter this course.

Integrated Analysis of Molecular and Clinical Prognostic Factors in Stage II/III Colon Cancer.

Background The prognostic potential of individual clinical and molecular parameters in stage II/III colon cancer has been investigated, but a thorough multivariable assessment of their relative impact is missing. Methods Tumors from patients (N = 1404) in the PETACC3 adjuvant chemotherapy trial were examined for BRAF and KRAS mutations, microsatellite instability (MSI), chromosome 18q loss of heterozygosity (18qLOH), and SMAD4 expression. Their importance in predicting relapse-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) was assessed by Kaplan-Meier analyses, Cox regression models, and recursive partitioning trees. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results MSI-high status and SMAD4 focal loss of expression were identified as independent prognostic factors with better RFS (hazard ratio [HR] of recurrence = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.37 to 0.81, P = .003) and OS (HR of death = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.27 to 0.70, P = .001) for MSI-high status and worse RFS (HR = 1.47, 95% CI = 1.19 to 1.81, P < .001) and OS (HR = 1.58, 95% CI = 1.23 to 2.01, P < .001) for SMAD4 loss. 18qLOH did not have any prognostic value in RFS or OS. Recursive partitioning identified refinements of TNM into new clinically interesting prognostic subgroups. Notably, T3N1 tumors with MSI-high status and retained SMAD4 expression had outcomes similar to stage II disease. Conclusions Concomitant assessment of molecular and clinical markers in multivariable analysis is essential to confirm or refute their independent prognostic value. Including molecular markers with independent prognostic value might allow more accurate prediction of prognosis than TNM staging alone.

Clinical predictors of prophylaxis use prior to the onset of acute venous thromboembolism in hospitalized patients SWIss Venous ThromboEmbolism Registry (SWIVTER).

BACKGROUND: We investigated clinical predictors of appropriate prophylaxis prior to the onset of venous thromboembolism (VTE). METHODS: In 14 Swiss hospitals, 567 consecutive patients (306 medical, 261 surgical) with acute VTE and hospitalization < 30 days prior to the VTE event were enrolled. RESULTS: Prophylaxis was used in 329 (58%) patients within 30 days prior to the VTE event. Among the medical patients, 146 (48%) received prophylaxis, and among the surgical patients, 183 (70%) received prophylaxis (P < 0.001). The indication for prophylaxis was present in 262 (86%) medical patients and in 217 (83%) surgical patients. Among the patients with an indication for prophylaxis, 135 (52%) of the medical patients and 165 (76%) of the surgical patients received prophylaxis (P < 0.001). Admission to the intensive care unit [odds ratio (OR) 3.28, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.94-5.57], recent surgery (OR 2.28, 95% CI 1.51-3.44), bed rest > 3 days (OR 2.12, 95% CI 1.45-3.09), obesity (OR 2.01, 95% CI 1.03-3.90), prior deep vein thrombosis (OR 1.71, 95% CI 1.31-2.24) and prior pulmonary embolism (OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.05-2.26) were independent predictors of prophylaxis. In contrast, cancer (OR 1.06, 95% CI 0.89-1.25), age (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.98-1.01), acute heart failure (OR 1.13, 95% CI 0.79-1.63) and acute respiratory failure (OR 1.19, 95% CI 0.89-1.59) were not predictive of prophylaxis. CONCLUSIONS: Although an indication for prophylaxis was present in most patients who suffered acute VTE, almost half did not receive any form of prophylaxis. Future efforts should focus on the improvement of prophylaxis for hospitalized patients, particularly in patients with cancer, acute heart or respiratory failure, and in the elderly.

Continuous electroencephalography in the medical intensive care unit.

OBJECTIVES: To examine predictors and the prognostic value of electrographic seizures (ESZs) and periodic epileptiform discharges (PEDs) in medical intensive care unit (MICU) patients without a primary acute neurologic condition. DESIGN: Retrospective study. SETTING: MICU in a university hospital. PATIENTS: A total of 201 consecutive patients admitted to the MICU between July 2004 and January 2007 without known acute neurologic injury and who underwent continuous electroencephalography monitoring (cEEG) for investigation of possible seizures or changes in mental status. INTERVENTION: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Median time from intensive care unit (ICU) admission to cEEG was 1 day (interquartile range 1-4). The majority of patients (60%) had sepsis as the primary admission diagnosis and 48% were comatose at the time of cEEG. Ten percent (n = 21) of patients had ESZs, 17% (n = 34) had PEDs, 5% (n = 10) had both, and 22% (n = 45) had either ESZs or PEDs. Seizures during cEEG were purely electrographic (no detectable clinical correlate) in the majority (67%) of patients. Patients with sepsis had a higher rate of ESZs or PEDs than those without sepsis (32% vs. 9%, p < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, sepsis at ICU admission was the only significant predictor of ESZs or PEDs (odds ratio 4.6, 95% confidence interval 1.9-12.7, p = 0.002). After controlling for age, coma, and organ dysfunction, the presence of ESZs or PEDs was associated with death or severe disability at hospital discharge (89% with ESZs or PEDs, vs. 39% if not; odds ratio 19.1, 95% confidence interval 6.3-74.6, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: In this retrospective study of MICU patients monitored with cEEG, ESZs and PEDs were frequent, predominantly in patients with sepsis. Seizures were mainly nonconvulsive. Both seizures and periodic discharges were associated with poor outcome. Prospective studies are warranted to determine more precisely the frequency and clinical impact of nonconvulsive seizures and periodic discharges, particularly in septic patients.

Clinical and ultrasonographic predictors of joint replacement for knee osteoarthritis: results from a large, 3-year, prospective EULAR study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine clinical and ultrasonographic predictors of joint replacement surgery across Europe in primary osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee. METHODS: This was a 3-year prospective study of a painful OA knee cohort (from a EULAR-sponsored, multicentre study). All subjects had clinical evaluation, radiographs and ultrasonography (US) at study entry. The rate of knee replacement surgery over the 3-year follow-up period was determined using Kaplan-Meier survival data analyses. Predictive factors for joint replacement were identified by univariate log-rank test then multivariate analysis using a Cox proportional-hazards regression model. Potential baseline predictors included demographic, clinical, radiographic and US features. RESULTS: Of the 600 original patients, 531 (88.5%), mean age 67+/-10 years, mean disease duration 6.1+/-6.9 years, had follow-up data and were analysed. During follow-up (median 3 years; range 0-4 years), knee replacement was done or required for 94 patients (estimated event rate of 17.7%). In the multivariate analysis, predictors of joint replacement were as follows: Kellgren and Lawrence radiographic grade (grade &gt; or =III vs &lt;III, hazards ratio (HR) = 4.08 (95% CI 2.34 to 7.12), p&lt;0.0001); ultrasonographic knee effusion (&gt; or =4 mm vs &lt;4 mm) (HR = 2.63 (95% CI 1.70 to 4.06), p&lt;0.0001); knee pain intensity on a 0-100 mm visual analogue scale (&gt; or =60 vs &lt;60) (HR = 1.81 (95% CI 1.15 to 2.83), p=0.01) and disease duration (&gt; or =5 years vs &lt;5 years) (HR=1.63 (95% CI 1.08 to 2.47), p=0.02). Clinically detected effusion and US synovitis were not associated with joint replacement in the univariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Longitudinal evaluation of this OA cohort demonstrated significant progression to joint replacement. In addition to severity of radiographic damage and pain, US-detected effusion was a predictor of subsequent joint replacement.

Severe stroke: patient profile and predictors of favorable outcome.

Summary.  Background:  Severe stroke carries high rates of mortality and morbidity. The aims of this study were to determine the characteristics of patients who initially presented with severe ischemic stroke, and to identify acute and subacute predictors of favorable clinical outcome in these patients. Methods:  An observational cohort study, Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (ASTRAL), was analyzed, and all patients presenting with severe stroke - defined as a National Institute of Health Stroke Scale score of ≥ 20 on admission - were compared with all other patients. In a multivariate analysis, associations with demographic, clinical, pathophysiologic, metabolic and neuroimaging factors were determined. Furthermore, we analyzed predictors of favorable outcome (modified Rankin scale score of ≤ 3 at 3 months) in the subgroup of severe stroke patients. Results:  Of 1915 consecutive patients, 243 (12.7%) presented with severe stroke. This was significantly associated with cardio-embolic stroke mechanism (odds ratio [OR] 1.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19-2.54), unknown stroke onset (OR 2.35, 95% CI 1.14-4.83), more neuroimaging signs of early ischemia (mostly computed tomography; OR 2.65, 95% CI 1.79-3.92), arterial occlusions on acute imaging (OR 27.01, 95% CI 11.5-62.9), fewer chronic radiologic infarcts (OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.26-0.72), lower hemoglobin concentration (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.96-0.99), and higher white cell count (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.00-1.11). In the 68 (28%) patients with favorable outcomes despite presenting with severe stroke, this was predicted by lower age (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.92-0.97), preceding cerebrovascular events (OR 3.00, 95% CI 1.01-8.97), hypolipemic pretreatment (OR 3.82, 95% CI 1.34-10.90), lower acute temperature (OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.23-0.78), lower subacute glucose concentration (OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.56-0.97), and spontaneous or treatment-induced recanalization (OR 4.51, 95% CI 1.96-10.41). Conclusions:  Severe stroke presentation is predicted by multiple clinical, radiologic and metabolic variables, several of which are modifiable. Predictors in the 28% of patients with favorable outcome despite presenting with severe stroke include hypolipemic pretreatment, lower acute temperature, lower glucose levels at 24 h, and arterial recanalization.

MGMT promoter methylation is prognostic but not predictive for outcome to adjuvant PCV chemotherapy in anaplastic oligodendroglial tumors: a report from EORTC Brain Tumor Group Study 26951.

PURPOSE: O6-methylguanine-methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter methylation has been shown to predict survival of patients with glioblastomas if temozolomide is added to radiotherapy (RT). It is unknown if MGMT promoter methylation is also predictive to outcome to RT followed by adjuvant procarbazine, lomustine, and vincristine (PCV) chemotherapy in patients with anaplastic oligodendroglial tumors (AOT). PATIENTS AND METHODS: In the European Organisation for the Research and Treatment of Cancer study 26951, 368 patients with AOT were randomly assigned to either RT alone or to RT followed by adjuvant PCV. From 165 patients of this study, formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tumor tissue was available for MGMT promoter methylation analysis. This was investigated with methylation specific multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification. RESULTS: In 152 cases, an MGMT result was obtained, in 121 (80%) cases MGMT promoter methylation was observed. Methylation strongly correlated with combined loss of chromosome 1p and 19q loss (P = .00043). In multivariate analysis, MGMT promoter methylation, 1p/19q codeletion, tumor necrosis, and extent of resection were independent prognostic factors. The prognostic significance of MGMT promoter methylation was equally strong in the RT arm and the RT/PCV arm for both progression-free survival and overall survival. In tumors diagnosed at central pathology review as glioblastoma, no prognostic effect of MGMT promoter methylation was observed. CONCLUSION: In this study, on patients with AOT MGMT promoter methylation was of prognostic significance and did not have predictive significance for outcome to adjuvant PCV chemotherapy. The biologic effect of MGMT promoter methylation or pathogenetic features associated with MGMT promoter methylation may be different for AOT compared with glioblastoma.

Worst-case bounds for the logarithmic loss of predictors

We investigate on-line prediction of individual sequences. Given a class of predictors, the goal is to predict as well as the best predictor in the class, where the loss is measured by the self information (logarithmic) loss function. The excess loss (regret) is closely related to the redundancy of the associated lossless universal code. Using Shtarkov's theorem and tools from empirical process theory, we prove a general upper bound on the best possible (minimax) regret. The bound depends on certain metric properties of the class of predictors. We apply the bound to both parametric and nonparametric classes ofpredictors. Finally, we point out a suboptimal behavior of the popular Bayesian weighted average algorithm.

Work values as predictors of entrepreneurial career intentions: A longitudinal analysis of gender effects

Purpose - Work values are an important characteristic to understand gender differences in career intentions, but how gender affects the relationship between values and career intentions is not well established. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether gender moderates the effects of work values on level and change of entrepreneurial intentions (EI). Design/methodology/approach - In total, 218 German university students were sampled regarding work values and with EI assessed three times over the course of 12 months. Data were analysed with latent growth modelling. Findings - Self-enhancement and openness to change values predicted higher levels and conservation values lower levels of EI. Gender moderated the effects of enhancement and conservation values on change in EI. Research limitations/implications - The authors relied on self-reported measures and the sample was restricted to university students. Future research needs to verify to what extent these results generalize to other samples and different career fields, such as science or nursing. Practical implications - The results imply that men and women are interested in an entrepreneurial career based on the same work values but that values have different effects for men and women regarding individual changes in EI. The results suggest that the prototypical work values of a career domain seem important regarding increasing the career intent for the gender that is underrepresented in that domain. Originality/value - The results enhance understanding of how gender affects the relation of work values and a specific career intention, such as entrepreneurship.

Predictors and Moderators of Clinical Outcomes in Adolescents with Severe Mental Disorders After an Assertive Community Treatment.

Previous studies have shown that stressful life events (SLEs), gender, social functioning and pretreatment severity are some of the predictors and/or moderators of treatment outcome in psychiatric care. The current study explored the effect of these predictors and moderators on the treatment outcome related to assertive community treatment (ACT) proposed to young people with severe mental disorders. 98 patients were assessed for externalizing and emotional difficulties, at admission and then at discharge of an ACT. Analyses revealed significant improvements in terms of symptomatology. In particular, regression analyses showed that pretreatment severity is a significant predictor of the outcome on emotional symptoms and is moderated by SLE on the outcome on externalizing symptoms. Furthermore, higher social functioning proved to predict better outcome on externalizing symptoms. Our results further evidence that these factors can explain inter-individual differences in outcome related to ACT. The theoretical and clinical implications of these results are discussed.