Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts have over the last decades been used more frequently to communicate forecastuncertainty. This uncertainty is twofold, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic over deterministic forecasts across the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty to transform the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. This paper presents the results of a risk-based decision-making game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called “How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?”. The game was played at several workshops in 2015, which were attended by operational forecasters and academics working in the field of hydrometeorology. The aim of this game was to better understand the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants’ willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game show that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers.

FORCED CONVECTION TO LAMINAR FLOW OF LIQUID EGG YOLK IN CIRCULAR AND ANNULAR DUCTS

The steady-state heat transfer in laminar flow of liquid egg yolk - an important pseudoplastic fluid food - in circular and concentric annular ducts was experimentally investigated. The average convection heat transfer coefficients, determined by measuring temperatures before and after heating sections with constant temperatures at the tube wall, were used to obtain simple new empirical expressions to estimate the Nusselt numbers for fully established flows at the thermal entrance of the considered geometries. The comparisons with existing correlations for Newtonian and non-Newtonian fluids resulted in excellent agreement. The main contribution of this work is to supply practical and easily applicable correlations, which are, especially for the case of annulus, rather scarce and extensively required in the design of heat transfer operations dealing with similar shear-thinning products. In addition, the experimental results may support existing theoretical analyses.

Fully electrochemical hyphenated flow system for preconcentration, cleanup, stripping, capillary electrophoresis with stacking and contactless conductivity detection of trace heavy metals

Successful coupling of electrochemical preconcentration (EPC) to capillary electrophoresis (CE) with contactless conductivity detection (C(4)D) is reported for the first time. The EPC-CE interface comprises a dual glassy carbon electrode (GCE) block, a spacer and an upper block with flow inlet and outlet, pseudo-reference electrode and a fitting for the CE silica column, consisting of an orifice perpendicular to the surface of a glassy carbon electrode with a bushing inside to ensure a tight press fit. The end of the capillary in contact with the GCE is slant polished, thus defining a reproducible distance from the electrode surface to the column bore. First results with EPC-CE-C(4)D are very promising, as revealed by enrichment factors of two orders of magnitude for Tl, Cu, Pb and Cd ion peak area signals. Detection limits for 10 min deposition time fall around 20 nmol L(-1) with linear calibration curves over a wide range. Besides preconcentration, easy matrix exchange between accumulation and stripping/injection favors procedures like sample cleanup and optimization of pH, ionic strength and complexing power. This was demonstrated for highly saline samples by using a low conductivity buffer for stripping/injection to improve separation and promote field-enhanced sample stacking during electromigration along the capillary. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Information Flow for ALGOL-like Languages

In this paper we present an approach to information flow analysis for a family of languages. We start with a simple imperative language. We present an information flow analysis using a flow logic. The paper contains detailed correctness proofs for this analysis. We next extend the analysis to a restricted form of Idealised Algol, a call-by-value higher-order extension of the simple imperative language (the key restriction being the lack of recursion). The paper concludes with a discussion of further extensions, including a probabilistic extension of Idealised Algol.

Evaluation Of Reservoir Model Integration With Deterministic And Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts

Due to the increase in water demand and hydropower energy, it is getting more important to operate hydraulic structures in an efficient manner while sustaining multiple demands. Especially, companies, governmental agencies, consultant offices require effective, practical integrated tools and decision support frameworks to operate reservoirs, cascades of run-of-river plants and related elements such as canals by merging hydrological and reservoir simulation/optimization models with various numerical weather predictions, radar and satellite data. The model performance is highly related with the streamflow forecast, related uncertainty and its consideration in the decision making. While deterministic weather predictions and its corresponding streamflow forecasts directly restrict the manager to single deterministic trajectories, probabilistic forecasts can be a key solution by including uncertainty in flow forecast scenarios for dam operation. The objective of this study is to compare deterministic and probabilistic streamflow forecasts on an earlier developed basin/reservoir model for short term reservoir management. The study is applied to the Yuvacık Reservoir and its upstream basin which is the main water supply of Kocaeli City located in the northwestern part of Turkey. The reservoir represents a typical example by its limited capacity, downstream channel restrictions and high snowmelt potential. Mesoscale Model 5 and Ensemble Prediction System data are used as a main input and the flow forecasts are done for 2012 year using HEC-HMS. Hydrometeorological rule-based reservoir simulation model is accomplished with HEC-ResSim and integrated with forecasts. Since EPS based hydrological model produce a large number of equal probable scenarios, it will indicate how uncertainty spreads in the future. Thus, it will provide risk ranges in terms of spillway discharges and reservoir level for operator when it is compared with deterministic approach. The framework is fully data driven, applicable, useful to the profession and the knowledge can be transferred to other similar reservoir systems.

Thermoeconomic analysis method for optimization of combined heat and power systems

This article presents an thermoeconomic analysis of cogeneration plants, applied as a rational technique to produce electric power and saturated steam. The aim of this new methodology is the minimum exergetic manufacturing cost (EMC), based on the Second Law of Thermodynamics. The decision variables selected for the optimization are the pressure and the temperature of the steam leaving the boiler in the case of using steam turbine, and the pressure ratio, turbine exhaust temperature and mass flow in the case of using gas turbines. The equations for calculating the capital costs of the components and products are formulated as a function of these decision variables. An application of the method using real data of a multinational chemical industry located in São Paulo state is presented. The conditions which establish the minimum cost are presented as finals conclusions.

Artificial neural networks for load flow and external equivalents studies

In this paper an artificial neural network (ANN) based methodology is proposed for (a) solving the basic load flow, (b) solving the load flow considering the reactive power limits of generation (PV) buses, (c) determining a good quality load flow starting point for ill-conditioned systems, and (d) computing static external equivalent circuits. An analysis of the input data required as well as the ANN architecture is presented. A multilayer perceptron trained with the Levenberg-Marquardt second order method is used. The proposed methodology was tested with the IEEE 30- and 57-bus, and an ill-conditioned 11-bus system. Normal operating conditions (base case) and several contingency situations including different load and generation scenarios have been considered. Simulation results show the excellent performance of the ANN for solving problems (a)-(d). (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative Analysis of Placental Vasculature by Three-Dimensional Power Doppler Ultrasonography in Normal Pregnancies From 12 to 40 Weeks of Gestation

Evaluate the distribution and variation of placental vascular indices according to gestational age and placental volume. From March to November 2007, three-dimensional (3D)-power Doppler ultrasound was performed in 295 normal pregnancies from 12 to 40 weeks of gestation. Using the same preestablished settings for all patients, power Doppler was applied to the placenta and placental Volume was obtained by the rotational technique (VOCAL(TM)). The 3D-power histogram was used to determine the placental vascular indices: vascularization index (VI), flow index (FI) and vascularization-flow index (VFI). The placental vascular indices were then plotted against gestational age and placental volume. All placental vascular indices showed constant distribution throughout gestation. A tendency for a reduction in placental vascular indices with increased placental volume was observed, but was only statistically significant when placental FI was considered (p < 0.05). All placental vascular indices estimated by 3D-power Doppler ultrasonography presented constant distribution throughout gestation, despite the increase in placental volume according to gestational age. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Non-newtonian flow and pressure drop of pineapple juice in a plate heat exchanger

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Signatures of primordial non-Gaussianities in the matter power-spectrum and bispectrum: the time-RG approach

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Friction losses in valves and fittings for power-law fluids

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Short term hydroelectric scheduling combining network flow and interior point approaches

In this paper, short term hydroelectric scheduling is formulated as a network flow optimization model and solved by interior point methods. The primal-dual and predictor-corrector versions of such interior point methods are developed and the resulting matrix structure is explored. This structure leads to very fast iterations since it avoids computation and factorization of impedance matrices. For each time interval, the linear algebra reduces to the solution of two linear systems, either to the number of buses or to the number of independent loops. Either matrix is invariant and can be factored off-line. As a consequence of such matrix manipulations, a linear system which changes at each iteration has to be solved, although its size is reduced to the number of generating units and is not a function of time intervals. These methods were applied to IEEE and Brazilian power systems, and numerical results were obtained using a MATLAB implementation. Both interior point methods proved to be robust and achieved fast convergence for all instances tested. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Continuation load flow using automatically determined branch megawatt losses as parameters

The conventional Newton's method is considered to be inadequate for the computation of the maximum loading point (MLP) of power systems since: (i) it encounters difficulties in the vicinity of the MLP: and (ii) the load flow Jacobian matrix becomes singular at the MLP. It is well known that continuation methods are powerful and useful tools that are able to trace the solution PV curve without experiencing such diffculties. However, continuation methods require a parameterisation so that a modified, well conditioned set of load flow equations is obtained. In particular, the Jacobian matrix associated with this modified set of equations should not be singular at the MLP. The authors propose that the actual power losses in transmission branches (lines and transformers) are used to parameterise the approach. Specific procedures for the automatic determination of the most appropriate parameter (branch) are proposed. Such procedures include the utilisation of fast voltage-stability indices. Simulation results are presented to show that the proposed method is able to trace the whole solution PV curve very efficiently.

Thermoeconomic analysis method for optimization of combined heat and power systems. Part I

This article presents a thermoeconomic analysis of cogeneration plants, applied as a rational technique to produce electric power and saturated steam. The aim of this new methodology is the minimum Exergetic Production Cost (EPC), based on the Second Law of Thermodynamics. The variables selected for the optimization are the pressure and the temperature of the steam leaving the boiler in the case of using steam turbine, and the pressure ratio, turbine exhaust temperature and mass flow in the case of using gas turbines. The equations for calculating the capital costs of the components and products are formulated as a function of these decision variables. An application of the method using real data of a multinational chemical industry located in São Paulo state is presented. The conditions which establish the minimum cost are presented as final output. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Laminar flow of soursop juice through concentric annuli: Friction factors and rheology

Laminar axial flow of a pseudoplastic fluid food (soursop, juice) in annular ducts has been experimentally investigated. In the first part of the manuscript, the rheological behavior of soursop juice, being essential for the annular flow analysis, was completely determined from 9.3 to 49.4 degrees Brix and temperatures from 0.4 degrees C to 68.8 degrees C, using a rotational rheometer equipped with coaxial cylinders. In order to test the adequacy of the rheology results, pressure loss data in the laminar pipe flow were collected and then experimental and theoretical friction factors were compared, showing excellent agreement, which indicated the reliability of the Power-Law model for describing the soursop juices. In the second part, pressure loss in annular regions was measured and used to estimate friction factors, which were then compared to those resulted from analytical and semi-analytical equations. The principal contributions of this article are to provide a review on the determination of friction factors-Reynolds number of pseudoplastic fluids in annuli, and also supply extensive new experimental data on the rheological properties and pressure loss of an important shear-thinning fluid food, which is of particular interest for the food engineering process design. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.