Reconstructing historical forest cover change in the Lower Amazon floodplains using the LandTrendr algorithm

ABSTRACTThe Amazon várzeas are an important component of the Amazon biome, but anthropic and climatic impacts have been leading to forest loss and interruption of essential ecosystem functions and services. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the capability of the Landsat-based Detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery (LandTrendr) algorithm to characterize changes in várzeaforest cover in the Lower Amazon, and to analyze the potential of spectral and temporal attributes to classify forest loss as either natural or anthropogenic. We used a time series of 37 Landsat TM and ETM+ images acquired between 1984 and 2009. We used the LandTrendr algorithm to detect forest cover change and the attributes of "start year", "magnitude", and "duration" of the changes, as well as "NDVI at the end of series". Detection was restricted to areas identified as having forest cover at the start and/or end of the time series. We used the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm to classify the extracted attributes, differentiating between anthropogenic and natural forest loss. Detection reliability was consistently high for change events along the Amazon River channel, but variable for changes within the floodplain. Spectral-temporal trajectories faithfully represented the nature of changes in floodplain forest cover, corroborating field observations. We estimated anthropogenic forest losses to be larger (1.071 ha) than natural losses (884 ha), with a global classification accuracy of 94%. We conclude that the LandTrendr algorithm is a reliable tool for studies of forest dynamics throughout the floodplain.

Sensitivity of the Amazon biome to high resolution climate change projections

ABSTRACT: Despite the reduction in deforestation rate in recent years, the impact of global warming by itself can cause changes in vegetation cover. The objective of this work was to investigate the possible changes on the major Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under different climate change scenarios. The dynamic vegetation models may simulate changes in vegetation distribution and the biogeochemical processes due to climate change. Initially, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was forced with initial and boundary conditions provided by CFSR and the Eta regional climate model driven by the historical simulation of HadGEM2-ES. These simulations were validated using the Santarém tower data. In the second part, we assess the impact of a future climate change on the Amazon biome by applying the Inland model forced with regional climate change projections. The projections show that some areas of rainforest in the Amazon region are replaced by deciduous forest type and grassland in RCP4.5 scenario and only by grassland in RCP8.5 scenario at the end of this century. The model indicates a reduction of approximately 9% in the area of tropical forest in RCP4.5 scenario and a further reduction in the RCP8.5 scenario of about 50% in the eastern region of Amazon. Although the increase of CO2 atmospheric concentration may favour the growth of trees, the projections of Eta-HadGEM2-ES show increase of temperature and reduction of rainfall in the Amazon region, which caused the forest degradation in these simulations.

Optimal behavior of responsive residential demand considering hybrid phase change materials

Due to communication and technology developments, residential consumers are enabled to participate in Demand Response Programs (DRPs), control their consumption and decrease their cost by using Household Energy Management (HEM) systems. On the other hand, capability of energy storage systems to improve the energy efficiency causes that employing Phase Change Materials (PCM) as thermal storage systems to be widely addressed in the building applications. In this paper, an operational model of HEM system considering the incorporation of more than one type of PCM in plastering mortars (hybrid PCM) is proposed not only to minimize the customerâ s cost in different DRPs but also to guaranty the habitantsâ  satisfaction. Moreover, the proposed model ensures the technical and economic limits of batteries and electrical appliances. Different case studies indicate that implementation of hybrid PCM in the buildings can meaningfully affect the operational pattern of HEM systems in different DRPs. The results reveal that the customerâ s electricity cost can be reduced up to 48% by utilizing the proposed model.

Ranking procedure based on mechanical, durability and thermal behavior of mortars with incorporation of phase change materials

Nowadays, considering the high variety of construction products, adequate material selection, based on their properties and function, becomes increasingly important. In this research, a ranking procedure developed by Czarnecki and Lukowski is applied in mortars with incorporation of phase change materials (PCM). The ranking procedure transforms experimental results of properties into one numerical value. The products can be classified according to their individual properties or even an optimized combination of different properties. The main purpose of this study was the ranking of mortars with incorporation of different contents of PCM based in different binders. Aerial lime, hydraulic lime, gypsum and cement were the binders studied. For each binder, three different mortars were developed. Reference mortars, mortars with incorporation of 40% of PCM and mortars with incorporation of 40% of PCM and 1% of fibers, were tested. Results show that the incorporation of PCM in mortars changes their global performance.

The efficient use of water in the context of climate change

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil

O simbólico como estratégia para a alteração comportamental: o caso Águas do Porto

Dissertação de mestrado em Ciências da Comunicação (área de especialização em Publicidade e Relações Públicas)

Influence of different fibers on the change of pore pressure of self-consolidating concrete exposed to fire

The focus of this paper is given to investigate the effect of different fibers on the pore pressure of fiber reinforced self-consolidating concrete under fire. The investigation on the pore pressure-time and temperature relationships at different depths of fiber reinforced self-consolidating concrete beams was carried out. The results indicated that micro PP fiber is more effective in mitigating the pore pressure than macro PP fiber and steel fiber. The composed use of steel fiber, micro PP fiber and macro PP fiber showed clear positive hybrid effect on the pore pressure reduction near the beam bottom subjected to fire. Compared to the effect of macro PP fiber with high dosages, the effect of micro PP fiber with low fiber contents on the pore pressure reduction is much stronger. The significant factor for reduction of pore pressure depends mainly on the number of PP fibers and not only on the fiber content. An empirical formula was proposed to predict the relative maximum pore pressure of fiber reinforced self-consolidating concrete exposed to fire by considering the moisture content, compressive strength and various fibers. The suggested model corresponds well with the experimental results of other research and tends to prove that the micro PP fiber can be the vital component for reduction in pore pressure, temperature as well spalling of concrete.

The Pope’s encyclical as a call for democratic social change

(Excerto) By addressing the ideologies and practices of the social dynamics entwined with climate change, the encyclical exposes the profoundly political character of global environmental change and its connection with economics and culture. The publication of the encyclical is action in the public space via language oriented to persuasion which, in Hannah Arendt’s terms, is the very essence of politics.

Climate change research and policy in Portugal

This article offers a review of research and policy on climate change in Portugal and is organized into three main themes: scientific knowledge and assessment of climate change; policy analysis and evaluation; and public engagement. Modern scientific research on meteorology and climatology started in Portugal in the 1950s and a strong community of researchers in climate science, vulnerabilities, impacts, and adaptation has since developed, particularly in the last decade. Nevertheless, there are still many gaps in research, especially regarding the economic costs of climate change in Portugal and costs and benefits of adaptation. Governmental policies with a strong emphasis on mitigation were introduced at the end of the 1990s. As greenhouse gas emissions continued to rise beyond its Kyoto target for 2012, the country had to resort to the Kyoto Flexibility Mechanisms in order to comply. Climate change adaptation policies were introduced in 2010 but are far from being fully implemented. Regarding public engagement with climate change, high levels of concern contrast with limited understanding and rather weak behavioral dispositions to address climate change. Citizens display a heavy reliance on the media as sources of information, which are dominated by a techno-managerial discourse mainly focused on the global level. The final part of the article identifies research gaps and outlines a research agenda. Connections between policy and research are also discussed

Cultural circuits of climate change in U.K. broadsheet newspapers, 1985–2003

This article argues for a cultural perspective to be brought to bear on studies of climate change risk perception. Developing the “circuit of culture” model, the article maintains that the producers and consumers of media texts are jointly engaged in dynamic, meaning-making activities that are context-specific and that change over time. A critical discourse analysis of climate change based on a database of newspaper reports from three U.K. broadsheet papers over the period 1985–2003 is presented. This empirical study identifies three distinct circuits of climate change—1985–1990, 1991–1996, 1997–2003—which are characterized by different framings of risks associated with climate change. The article concludes that there is evidence of social learning as actors build on their experiences in relation to climate change science and policy making. Two important factors in shaping the U.K.’s broadsheet newspapers’ discourse on “dangerous” climate change emerge as the agency of top political figures and the dominant ideological standpoints in different newspapers.

Incorporation of hybrid phase change materials in plastering mortars for increased energy efficiency in buildings

Tese de Doutoramento em Engenharia Civil.

A change in the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysms

OBJECTIVE: One of the most exciting potential applications of percutaneous therapy is the treatment of abdominal aneurysms. METHODS: Of 230 patients treated with a self-expanding polyester-lined stent-graft for different aortic pathologies at our institution, we selected 80 abdominal aneurysm cases undergoing treatment (from May 1997 to December 2002). The stent was introduced through the femoral artery, in the hemodynamic laboratory, with the patient under general anesthesia, with systemic heparinization, and induced hypotension. RESULTS: The procedure was successful in 70 (92.9%) cases; 10 patients with exclusion of abdominal aortic aneurysms were documented immediately within the hemodynamic room and 5 patients persisted with a residual leak. Two surgical conversions were necessary. Additional stent-grafts had to be inserted in 3 (3.7%) cases. In the follow-up, 91.4% of patients were alive at a mean follow-up of 15.8 months. CONCLUSION: We believe that stent-grafts are an important tool in improving the treatment of abdominal aneurysms, and this new policy may change the conventional medical management of these patients.

Procesos de cambio en la cultura jurídica: análisis desde la experiencia del juicio por jurados. Processes of change in the Legal Culture: Analysis from the Experience of Jury Trials.

El presente proyecto de investigación se orienta a analizar la institución del juicio por jurados, considerada como un punto estratégico para la observación de los procesos de cambio que recorren la cultura jurídica en Argentina. Frente a las múltiples transformaciones y a los intensos procesos de reestructuración de las relaciones sociales observados en el contexto latinoamericano y especialmente en Argentina, la necesidad de reconstruir la legitimidad de los jueces ante la opinión pública se ha vuelto impostergable, y el recurso a la participación popular en el campo judicial aparece como un instrumento útil para ello. Analizar la efectividad de esta estrategia para la legitimación del poder judicial es uno de los objetivos del presente proyecto de investigación. Abordar dicho objetivo implica, indagar en la relación entre la administración de justicia y diferentes actores sociales, especialmente los miembros de la profesión jurídica y la opinión pública.Se explora igualmente la contradicción entre el hecho de que esta institución, nacida para atenuar la dureza de los castigos, se ha implementado recientemente en la provincia de Córdoba en la situación inversa. El modo en que la tensión entre el espíritu garantista de los jueces y la demanda de castigos de los ciudadanos comunes se manejará en la práctica de los juicios por jurado, y su incidencia en el éxito de las estrategias legitimadoras del poder judicial, aparece como una cuestión relevante para el análisis que se propone. Con la utilización de diferentes fuentes de información cuantitativas y cualitativas, se espera que el análisis de la implementación del juicio penal con jurados populares en la provincia de Córdoba propuesto en el presente proyecto, contribuya a documentar los niveles de articulación entre la cultura jurídica interna y externa.

Dispersión agrícola y cambio social en las Sierras de Córdoba (ca. 1000 a C.- 1600 d C.) Agricultural spread and social change in Córdoba Hills (ca. 1000 b C- 1600 a D.)

El proceso cultural en las Sierras de Córdoba fue habitualmente concebido como marginal con respecto al Noroeste Argentino. Tras el establecimiento del esquema básico de la secuencia prehispánica, a mediados del siglo pasado, se definió una etapa agroalfarera de cronología tardía, que continuaba a una extensa etapa precerámica cuyos límites se aproximaban a la transición Pleistoceno-Holoceno. Se hacía referencia, de este modo, al advenimiento de un modo de vida agrícola y aldeano, que reemplazaba a otro basado en la caza y recolección. Dicha transformación, alternativamente atribuida a la población cazadora local o a una migración de grupos agricultores desde regiones vecinas, se habría consumado hacia 1500 AP, fijando uno de los límites de la dispersión de la agricultura andina. Es necesario destacar la extremada escasez y el carácter indirecto de las evidencias arqueológicas utilizadas para sustentar la ocurrencia de tal proceso. Asimismo, la vigencia de supuestos que han comenzado a mostrar inconsistencias con los resultados de las recientes investigaciones. Entre ellos, principalmente, el que asume que la introducción de la agricultura dio paso a una transformación radical de las sociedades prehispánicas, constituyendo un hito fundamental en su devenir histórico, el comienzo de una nueva etapa. Nuestros últimos estudios en el sector central de las Sierras de Córdoba apuntaron, entre otros objetivos, a reconocer indicadores arqueológicos directos de producción agrícola, así como de la manipulación y consumo de plantas cultivadas. Los primeros resultados nos permiten vislumbrar un escenario complejo que desafía los modelos vigentes. El consumo de maíz, por ejemplo, parece haber antecedido por muchos siglos a la adopción de prácticas agrícolas. El acceso a este cultígeno, sumado a otros elementos, indicaría cambios entre los cazadores-recolectores serranos, promovidos por su integración en redes macrorregionales que los vincularon con sociedades agricultoras de la vertiente oriental andina y quizás del Chaco Santiagueño, por lo menos desde 2500 AP. En definitiva, la agricultura no parece haber sido adoptada rápidamente ni provocado transformaciones profundas e inmediatas en la organización de los grupos prehispánicos. Se ha observado, por el contrario, la incorporación gradual de distintas innovaciones que incluso permiten relacionar la manipulación y más tarde el cultivo de plantas domesticadas, con procesos de intensificación productiva de mayor escala temporal. Uno de nuestros objetivos en este proyecto consiste, básicamente, en profundizar las investigaciones en curso a fin de ampliar el cuerpo de datos con el cual analizar y discutir el problema de la dispersión agrícola en la región. Ello implica el tratamiento de diferentes líneas de evidencia, en particular: 1) la distribución regional de sitios arqueológicos y las modalidades de ocupación de las tierras cultivables; 2) la búsqueda de superficies de cultivo en sitios estratificados; y 3) estudios arqueobotánicos, polínicos y de isótopos estables. Se entiende que no le corresponde a la arqueología asumir apriorísticamente el significado histórico de la introducción de la agricultura, sino establecerlo en cada caso puntual a través de la investigación concreta. Nuestro segundo objetivo consiste, por lo tanto, en delinear los cambios (económicos, tecnológicos, políticos, sociales) que acompañaron al proceso de dispersión agrícola. Ello implica el tratamiento de diferentes problemas, entre otros: 1) las prácticas de apropiación de los recursos silvestres; 2) la continuidad y cambio tecnológico; 3) la movilidad y la articulación microambiental; y 4) los aspectos políticos y sociales ligados a prácticas como la molienda grupal y la producción del arte rupestre. The radical chage of societies from hunter-gatherers to farmers in 1500 BP was considered a milestone whitin the cultural process of pre-hispanic societies in Cordoba Hill. But there is a shortage of archaeological remains to support this change and there are weak hypotheses of absolute transformations. During the last years, our studies carried out on the central area of Cordoba Hill have tried to recognize direct archaeological signs of agriculture production as well as the handling and consumption of crops. The first results show a complex set that challenges the current theoretical models. For example, the corn was probably eatten prior to its adoption for farm practices. Our first main consists in increasing a corpus of data about the spread of agriculture in Cordoba region that we have been researching for the last years. These researches involve different lines of evidence: 1-regional location of archaeological sites and kinds of occupation on cultivable lands; 2-the search for plots at archaeological sites; 3-archaeobotanical, pollen and stable isotopes studies. Our second main consists in outlining changes within the spread of agriculture. It implies to considering different problems: 1-the practices to gatherer wild resources; 2-the continuity and changes of technologies; 3-the mobility and the articulation on the micro-environment; 4-political and social aspects in connection with activities such as groupal grinding and rock art productions.

Investigating the long term planning framework for the Galway Bay community from climate change.

This research looked at the scientific evidence available on climate change and in particular, projections on sea level rise which ranged from 0.5m to 2m by the end of the century. These projections were then considered in an Irish context. A review of current policy in Ireland revealed that there was no dedicated Government policy on climate change or coastal zone management. In terms of spatial planning policy, it became apparent that there was little or no guidance on climate change either at a national, regional or local level. Therefore, to determine the likely impacts of sea level rise in Ireland based on current spatial planning practice and policy, a scenario-building exercise was carried out for two case study areas in Galway Bay. The two case study areas were: Oranmore, a densely populated town located to the east of Inner Galway Bay; and Tawin Island, a rural dispersed community, located to the south east of Inner Galway Bay. A ‘best’ and ‘worse’ case scenario was envisaged for both areas in terms of sea level rise. In the absence of specific climate change policies it was projected that in the ‘best’ case scenario of 0.5m sea level rise, Tawin Island would suffer serious and adverse impacts while Oranmore was likely to experience slight to moderate impacts. However, in the ‘worse’ case scenario of a 2m sea level rise, it was likely that Tawin Island would be abandoned while many houses, businesses and infrastructure built within the floodplain of Oranmore Bay would be inundated and permanently flooded. In this regard, it was the author’s opinion that a strategic and integrated climate change policy and adaptation plan is vital for the island of Ireland that recognises the importance of integrated land use and spatial planning in terms of mitigation and adaptation to climate change.