The effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in the two major Portuguese cities

It is well known that meteorological conditions influence the comfort and human health. Southern European countries, including Portugal, show the highest mortality rates during winter, but the effects of extreme cold temperatures in Portugal have never been estimated. The objective of this study was the estimation of the effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in Lisbon and Oporto, aiming the production of scientific evidence for the development of a real-time health warning system. Poisson regression models combined with distributed lag non-linear models were applied to assess the exposure-response relation and lag patterns of the association between minimum temperature and all-causes mortality and between minimum temperature and circulatory and respiratory system diseases mortality from 1992 to 2012, stratified by age, for the period from November to March. The analysis was adjusted for over dispersion and population size, for the confounding effect of influenza epidemics and controlled for long-term trend, seasonality and day of the week. Results showed that the effect of cold temperatures in mortality was not immediate, presenting a 1–2-day delay, reaching maximumincreased risk of death after 6–7 days and lasting up to 20–28 days. The overall effect was generally higher and more persistent in Lisbon than in Oporto, particularly for circulatory and respiratory mortality and for the elderly. Exposure to cold temperatures is an important public health problem for a relevant part of the Portuguese population, in particular in Lisbon.

Multivariate statistical analysis of highway accident and highway conditions. Final report.

Transportation Department, Office of University Research, Washington, D.C.

OPTREG - an interactive computer program for optimization and regression. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

An analysis of ultimate performance measures to determine total project impact. (A supplementary report to analytic studies no. 1 and no. 3 for project year 1973.).

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Forcing regression through a given point using any familiar computational routine /

"March 1983."

Epidemiological analysis of electroconvulsive therapy in Victoria, Australia

Objective: To determine the population-based utilization rate of electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) in Victoria between 1998-1999, to examine the characteristics of the ECT treated group, and to identify patient factors independently associated with differential rates of ECT treatment. Method: Electroconvulsive therapy is reported under statute in Victoria, Australia. Crude, age-adjusted and age-sex specific utilization rates were calculated using this statutory data for the 1998-1999 financial year and estimated mid-year populations from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Descriptive characteristics of those treated with ECT were derived from the statutory data. Patient factors associated with an increased likelihood of ECT in the public sector were explored with logistic regression analysis, using non-ECT treated mental health patients from the Victorian Psychiatric Case Register as the reference population. Results: The crude treated-person and age-adjusted rates for the State (both public and private sectors) were 39.9 and 44.0 persons per 100 000 resident population per annum, respectively. The crude and age-adjusted administration rates were 330.3 and 362.6 ECT administrations per 100 000 resident population per annum, respectively. Age-sex specific rates varied by age and sex, with rates generally increasing with age and female sex. Overall, 62.8% of the treated group were women, 32.9% aged over 64, and 75.2% had depression. Diagnosis, age and sex each independently predicted ECT in the public sector, with diagnosis the most important factor, followed by age then sex. Conclusions: Despite decades of use, the appropriate rate of ECT utilization is still unclear. Further research should be directed at exploring the factors, including provider variables, determining ECT treatment.

A broad-scale analysis of links between coastal fisheries production and mangrove extent: A case-study for northeastern Australia

The paradigm that mangroves are critical for sustaining production in coastal fisheries is widely accepted, but empirical evidence has been tenuous. This study showed that links between mangrove extent and coastal fisheries production could be detected for some species at a broad regional scale (1000s of kilometres) on the east coast of Queensland, Australia. The relationships between catch-per-unit-effort for different commercially caught species in four fisheries (trawl, line, net and pot fisheries) and mangrove characteristics, estimated from Landsat images were examined using multiple regression analyses. The species were categorised into three groups based on information on their life history characteristics, namely mangrove-related species (banana prawns Penaeus merguiensis, mud crabs Scylla serrata and barramundi Lates calcarifer), estuarine species (tiger prawns Penaeus esculentus and Penaeus semisulcatus, blue swimmer crabs Portunus pelagicus and blue threadfin Eleutheronema tetradactylum) and offshore species (coral trout Plectropomus spp.). For the mangrove-related species, mangrove characteristics such as area and perimeter accounted for most of the variation in the model; for the non-mangrove estuarine species, latitude was the dominant parameter but some mangrove characteristics (e.g. mangrove perimeter) also made significant contributions to the models. In contrast, for the offshore species, latitude was the dominant variable, with no contribution from mangrove characteristics. This study also identified that finer scale spatial data for the fisheries, to enable catch information to be attributed to a particular catchment, would help to improve our understanding of relationships between mangroves and fisheries production. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing the impacts of grazing levels on bird density in woodland habitat: a Bayesian approach using expert opinion

Many studies on birds focus on the collection of data through an experimental design, suitable for investigation in a classical analysis of variance (ANOVA) framework. Although many findings are confirmed by one or more experts, expert information is rarely used in conjunction with the survey data to enhance the explanatory and predictive power of the model. We explore this neglected aspect of ecological modelling through a study on Australian woodland birds, focusing on the potential impact of different intensities of commercial cattle grazing on bird density in woodland habitat. We examine a number of Bayesian hierarchical random effects models, which cater for overdispersion and a high frequency of zeros in the data using WinBUGS and explore the variation between and within different grazing regimes and species. The impact and value of expert information is investigated through the inclusion of priors that reflect the experience of 20 experts in the field of bird responses to disturbance. Results indicate that expert information moderates the survey data, especially in situations where there are little or no data. When experts agreed, credible intervals for predictions were tightened considerably. When experts failed to agree, results were similar to those evaluated in the absence of expert information. Overall, we found that without expert opinion our knowledge was quite weak. The fact that the survey data is quite consistent, in general, with expert opinion shows that we do know something about birds and grazing and we could learn a lot faster if we used this approach more in ecology, where data are scarce. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Repeated occurrence of basal cell carcinoma of the skin and multifailure survival analysis: Follow-up data from the nambour skin cancer prevention trial

The aim of this study was to apply multifailure survival methods to analyze time to multiple occurrences of basal cell carcinoma (BCC). Data from 4.5 years of follow-up in a randomized controlled trial, the Nambour Skin Cancer Prevention Trial (1992-1996), to evaluate skin cancer prevention were used to assess the influence of sunscreen application on the time to first BCC and the time to subsequent BCCs. Three different approaches of time to ordered multiple events were applied and compared: the Andersen-Gill, Wei-Lin-Weissfeld, and Prentice-Williams-Peterson models. Robust variance estimation approaches were used for all multifailure survival models. Sunscreen treatment was not associated with time to first occurrence of a BCC (hazard ratio = 1.04, 95% confidence interval: 0.79, 1.45). Time to subsequent BCC tumors using the Andersen-Gill model resulted in a lower estimated hazard among the daily sunscreen application group, although statistical significance was not reached (hazard ratio = 0.82, 95% confidence interval: 0.59, 1.15). Similarly, both the Wei-Lin-Weissfeld marginal-hazards and the Prentice-Williams-Peterson gap-time models revealed trends toward a lower risk of subsequent BCC tumors among the sunscreen intervention group. These results demonstrate the importance of conducting multiple-event analysis for recurring events, as risk factors for a single event may differ from those where repeated events are considered.

Effects of rock properties on specific cutting energy in linear cutting of sandstones by picks

Specific cutting energy (SE) has been widely used to assess the rock cuttability for mechanical excavation purposes. Some prediction models were developed for SE through correlating rock properties with SE values. However, some of the textural and compositional rock parameters i.e. texture coefficient and feldspar, mafic, and felsic mineral contents were not considered. The present study is to investigate the effects of previously ignored rock parameters along with engineering rock properties on SE. Mineralogical and petrographic analyses, rock mechanics, and linear rock cutting tests were performed on sandstone samples taken from sites around Ankara, Turkey. Relationships between SE and rock properties were evaluated using bivariate correlation and linear regression analyses. The tests and subsequent analyses revealed that the texture coefficient and feldspar content of sandstones affected rock cuttability, evidenced by significant correlations between these parameters and SE at a 90% confidence level. Felsic and mafic mineral contents of sandstones did not exhibit any statistically significant correlation against SE. Cementation coefficient, effective porosity, and pore volume had good correlations against SE. Poisson's ratio, Brazilian tensile strength, Shore scleroscope hardness, Schmidt hammer hardness, dry density, and point load strength index showed very strong linear correlations against SE at confidence levels of 95% and above, all of which were also found suitable to be used in predicting SE individually, depending on the results of regression analysis, ANOVA, Student's t-tests, and R2 values. Poisson's ratio exhibited the highest correlation with SE and seemed to be the most reliable SE prediction tool in sandstones.

Effects of rock properties on specific cutting energy in linear cutting of sandstones by picks

Specific cutting energy (SE) has been widely used to assess the rock cuttability for mechanical excavation purposes. Some prediction models were developed for SE through correlating rock properties with SE values. However, some of the textural and compositional rock parameters i.e. texture coefficient and feldspar, mafic, and felsic mineral contents were not considered. The present study is to investigate the effects of previously ignored rock parameters along with engineering rock properties on SE. Mineralogical and petrographic analyses, rock mechanics, and linear rock cutting tests were performed on sandstone samples taken from sites around Ankara, Turkey. Relationships between SE and rock properties were evaluated using bivariate correlation and linear regression analyses. The tests and subsequent analyses revealed that the texture coefficient and feldspar content of sandstones affected rock cuttability, evidenced by significant correlations between these parameters and SE at a 90% confidence level. Felsic and mafic mineral contents of sandstones did not exhibit any statistically significant correlation against SE. Cementation coefficient, effective porosity, and pore volume had good correlations against SE. Poisson's ratio, Brazilian tensile strength, Shore scleroscope hardness, Schmidt hammer hardness, dry density, and point load strength index showed very strong linear correlations against SE at confidence levels of 95% and above, all of which were also found suitable to be used in predicting SE individually, depending on the results of regression analysis, ANOVA, Student's t-tests, and R-2 values. Poisson's ratio exhibited the highest correlation with SE and seemed to be the most reliable SE prediction tool in sandstones.

In vivo analysis of ciliary muscle morphologic changes with accommodation and axial ametropia

Purpose. To use anterior segment optical coherence tomography (AS-OCT) to analyze ciliary muscle morphology and changes with accommodation and axial ametropia. Methods. Fifty prepresbyopic volunteers, aged 19 to 34 years were recruited. High-resolution images were acquired of nasal and temporal ciliary muscles in the relaxed state and at stimulus vergence levels of -4 and -8 D. Objective accommodative responses and axial lengths were also recorded. Two-way, mixed-factor analyses of variance (ANOVAs) were used to assess the changes in ciliary muscle parameters with accommodation and determine whether these changes are dependent on the nasal–temporal aspect or axial length, whereas linear regression analysis was used to analyze the relationship between axial length and ciliary muscle length. Results. The ciliary muscle was longer (r = 0.34, P = 0.02), but not significantly thicker (F = 2.84, P = 0.06), in eyes with greater axial length. With accommodation, the ciliary muscle showed a contractile shortening (F = 42.9. P < 0.001), particularly anteriorly (F = 177.2, P < 0.001), and a thickening of the anterior portion (F= 46.2, P < 0.001). The ciliary muscle was thicker (F = 17.8, P < 0.001) and showed a greater contractile response on the temporal side. Conclusions. The accommodative changes observed support an anterior, as well as centripetal, contractile shift of ciliary muscle mass.

Probing three-way interactions in moderated multiple regression:Development and application of a slope difference test

Researchers often use 3-way interactions in moderated multiple regression analysis to test the joint effect of 3 independent variables on a dependent variable. However, further probing of significant interaction terms varies considerably and is sometimes error prone. The authors developed a significance test for slope differences in 3-way interactions and illustrate its importance for testing psychological hypotheses. Monte Carlo simulations revealed that sample size, magnitude of the slope difference, and data reliability affected test power. Application of the test to published data yielded detection of some slope differences that were undetected by alternative probing techniques and led to changes of results and conclusions. The authors conclude by discussing the test's applicability for psychological research. Copyright 2006 by the American Psychological Association.

Statnote 16: fitting a regression line to data

Fitting a linear regression to data provides much more information about the relationship between two variables than a simple correlation test. A goodness of fit test of the line should always be carried out. Hence, ‘r squared’ estimates the strength of the relationship between Y and X, ANOVA whether a statistically significant line is present, and the ‘t’ test whether the slope of the line is significantly different from zero. In addition, it is important to check whether the data fit the assumptions for regression analysis and, if not, whether a transformation of the Y and/or X variables is necessary.

Data methods in optometry. Part 6: fitting a regression line to data

1. Fitting a linear regression to data provides much more information about the relationship between two variables than a simple correlation test. A goodness of fit test of the line should always be carried out. Hence, r squared estimates the strength of the relationship between Y and X, ANOVA whether a statistically significant line is present, and the ‘t’ test whether the slope of the line is significantly different from zero. 2. Always check whether the data collected fit the assumptions for regression analysis and, if not, whether a transformation of the Y and/or X variables is necessary. 3. If the regression line is to be used for prediction, it is important to determine whether the prediction involves an individual y value or a mean. Care should be taken if predictions are made close to the extremities of the data and are subject to considerable error if x falls beyond the range of the data. Multiple predictions require correction of the P values. 3. If several individual regression lines have been calculated from a number of similar sets of data, consider whether they should be combined to form a single regression line. 4. If the data exhibit a degree of curvature, then fitting a higher-order polynomial curve may provide a better fit than a straight line. In this case, a test of whether the data depart significantly from a linear regression should be carried out.